Race 1
6-4-1-2
#6 Tale of Honor: Improving Beyers for this son of Tale of the Cat. Trainer Ingrid Mason has good numbers off the “slight” layoffs (18%) off a win last out. Seems to be the speed of the race.
#4 Kutuzov: Takes a small jump in class and also switches back to dirt. The owners switch back to Bernard Flint as the trainer (0-2) when with him the first time. This four-year old also has improving Beyers. One downgrade is all the runner-up finishes and last time Flint had this horse, they tried the surface switch which didn’t work.
#1 Nyoman: Takes a slight drop in class and turns back in distance. Trainer David Hinsley is (16%) in dirt sprints with a positive R.O.I. Another one with “seconditis.”
Race 2
1-5-2-3
#1 Union Jackson: The 4-5 M.L favorite has been a very consistent horse in his short career. With only five total races, this Curlin colt can still develop and get better. Top connections will probably knock the price down even more. Nice win when drawing away in last. Trainer Steve Asmussen is (21%) when winning last out in dirt sprints.
#5 Normandy Crossing: Turns back in distance and switches surfaces. Most races have been on turf and has had zero success. Gets back to right surface. Been very good in last two at big odds. Could be controlling speed.
#2 Den’s Legacy: In terrific form over last two. Winner two back came right back to win. Takes a small jump in class. Is stakes placed, so the back class is there. Was four wide in last, but should get better trip in here.
Race 3
6-1-5-3
#6 Delusional K K: Been in the exacta nine straight times and expecting nothing different here. Has improving Beyers. 10 for 10 in the money at six furlongs. Keeps jockey Brian Hernandez in the irons. Lots of seconds is only concern.
#1 Sweet Miss Lou: If you toss the last race (wrong surface) this daughter of Super Saver has been on a tear with four wins in her last five starts. Loves the distance. Expecting improvement with a good stalking trip.
#5 Marquee Cal Gal: Another in terrific form. However, seems to be a synthetic specialist so far in career. 5 for 7 in the money at distance. Should be able to get a piece.
Race 4
11-6-8-3
#11 Angelic Score: This mare loves to win with nine wins in 25 starts. In the exacta in her last three races. Takes a small jump in class. Trainer Eric Foster has one win in a four race sample when first off the claim, but three of those have hit the board.
#6 Call Me Anna: Another synthetic specialist takes jump in class to open company. Has improving Beyers and is a winner of two straight at Turfway Park. Trainer Laura Bealmear is 1 for 3 with dirt sprinters off a win last out. All three have hit the board.
#8 Our Adieu: Expecting this daughter of Heckle to press the pace in this one. Turf form was good before the long layoff. Trainer Larue Benjie is 0 for 5 off the surface switch, but four have hit the board.
Race 5
10-9-4-8
#10 Vittorioso: Broke his maiden last out as the 6-5 favorite. Trainer Larry Jones is (33%) with turf sprinters winning last out with a positive R.O.I.
#9 Urban Bourbon: Hoping that everyone jumps on this one’s superior Beyers and that nice third two back in the Grade III Dania Beach. Has declining Beyers and I think wants longer distances, but still should be flying late.
#4 Oscar Mike: Another one that I expect to take a lot of money. Probably in too tough last out and two back didn’t like soft turf. That’s a nice 70 beyer three back, just a tad below our other top contenders. Might be able to fill out the exacta. Trainer Michael Maker is (24%) in turf sprints off a small layoff with a positive R.O.I.
Race 6
9-11-1-5
#9 Privy Council: Probably the easiest single on the card for me. Should be under even money. We all know what Pletcher and Castellano can do together. Need I say more.
#11 Construe: Hard to run well going long first out and this one just missed by a half length in her debut. Eoin Harty is good with second career starters and at the MSW class level in general. However, the trainer/jockey is 0 for 26 over the last two years together.
#1 Alotta Skirt: Declining Beyers, but the best of the rest at a route of ground. Had problems at the the start in last, but could move forward in this spot.
Race 7
4-5-8-2
#4 Improv: At these middling amounts of ground, I like to take horses that have shown good efforts at said distance. This filly is 2 for 2 in the exacta, with one win. Right up my alley! Came right back off the long layoff to win and that bullet workout on April 8 shows me she is still in good form. Leparoux on a speed horse is a positive in my eyes.
#5 Apologynotaccepted: Huge Beyer in opening win. Won by 16 lengths. Gets a trainer upgrade to William Mott. If she runs back to that opening race she wins easy here. I wonder if that effort can be done duplicated in back-to-back races.
#8 C Island Surprise: A good race two back with an 81 beyer at the seven furlong distance. Hoping that we can get that kind of pace pressing trip off the layoff. However, not the greatest trainer stats when turning back in distance and off the long layoff.
Race 8
6-12-10-8
#6 Gotham News: Terrific connections from Southern California. Has improving Beyers and races to go back to that can win this. Love the value at 10-1 on the morning line.
#12 The Sandman: Has been in terrific form since the layoff. Trainer Larry Jones is very good in dirt routes. Another nice price at 8-1 on the line.
#10: Quiet Ruler: Takes a jump in class. Good at the distance and has a second in only race at Keeneland. When Leparoux rides for Mark Casse they are (33%) together.
Race 9
3-9-4-7
#3 Heart to Heart. Winner of three straight, all with 100+ beyers. Last grade I was on soft turf so that excusable. There is other speeds in here, but I think should still be able to clear.
#9 Reload: With a lot of speed signed on in this one the closing style he showed in his last win at Tampa Bay should work out well. Will be able to save ground and should be flying home late.
#4 Tourist: Just missed in a Grade I at Keeneland last year. Races very well fresh. Had a troubled trip in last when in the Breeders’ Cup. Beyers two and three back fit against our top choice.
Race 10
6-9-10-4
#6 Going Strong: Blinkers go on for this one. Gets red-hot Luis Saez in the irons. Expecting to be sent from the bell. Might be able to steal it.
#9 It’s all Copacetic: Takes a small jump in class. Has improving Beyers. The troubled trip in last will hopefully not hurt the price.
#10 Duke of Chatne: Improving Beyers and had a good race when finishing third at the level last out. Trainer Jack Frost won with his opening starter last week. Hoping that this might be another live runner.
A special thanks to Scott Shapiro for allowing me to provide analysis today on his site.
If anyone wants to talk horse racing or how I’m planning on betting the card, look me up on twitter @handi_capper. Good luck to everyone!
Top 2 selections are horses I would use in horizontal wagers (Daily Double Pick 3 etc…)
Bottom two are horses I would use underneath in exactas trifectas and superfectas.