2016 Kentucky Derby Introductory Post
5/7 (CD): KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD SORTED BY POST POSITIONS
HORSE – JOCKEY – TRAINER – Morning Line Odds (Predicted Odds)
1 Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder – Patrick Gallagher 50-1
2 Suddenbreakingnews Luis Quinonez – Donnie Von Hemel 20-1
3 Creator Ricardo Santana Jr – Steven Asmussen 10-1
4 Mo Tom Corey Lanerie – Thomas Amoss 20-1
5 Gun Runner Florent Geroux – Steven Asmussen 10-1
6 My Man Sam Irad Ortiz Jr. – Chad Brown 20-1
7 Oscar Nominated Julien Leparoux – Michael Maker 20-1
8 Lani Yukata Take – Mikio Matsunaga 30-1
9 Destin Javier Castellano – Todd Pletcher 15-1
10 Whitmore Victor Espinoza – Ron Moquett 20-1
11 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux – J. Keith Desormeaux 8-1
12 Tom’s Ready Brian Hernandez Jr – Dallas Stewart 30-1
13 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez – Doug O’Neill 3-1
14 Mohaymen Junior Alvarado – Kiaran McLaughlin 10-1
15 Outwork John Velazquez – Todd Pletcher 15-1
16 Shagaf Joel Rosario – Chad Brown 20-1
17 Mor Spirit Gary Stevens – Bob Baffert 12-1
18 Majesto Emisael Jaramillo – Gustavo Delgado 30-1
19 Brody’s Cause Luis Saez – Dale Romans 12-1
20 Danzing Candy Mike Smith – Clifford Sise Jr 15-1
The Derby is on Saturday 5/7 (always the first Saturday in May). If it’s just a fun, casual day where you drink Mint Juleps, and pick the horse with a funny name or your favorite number, ok. But I’ll give you the scoop, pros/cons, positives/negatives on each horse in the Derby field so you can make a more educated decision on who you’d like to bet on/cheer for in the Derby.
I’d like to think I actually know what I’m talking about in terms of horse racing in general. But as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned, I’m terrible at picking winners and more importantly cashing winning tickets on it. I’m pretty much cursed. So the following breakdown is intended to be a fairly UNBIASED, simplified description for each horse, so you can make up your own mind on who you’d like to bet on/cheer for the Derby. Because the last thing you wanna do is use my crummy picks lol.
If you’re a beginner, I’m not trying to throw too much jargon/weird terminology at you. I’m trying to make the descriptions so you can easily understand what the heck I’m talking about. If you have any questions about anything I’ve posted, feel free to post a question/comment or message me. Same for if you’ve never bet on a horse race before. I can help guide you through your options for that as well.
THE BASICS
It’s for 3 year-olds only. Every horse collectively turns 3 years old on January 1st, so none of the horses that ran last year can come back and compete again this year (no… American Pharoah can’t run again in the race)
There will be 20 horses in the race, which can make it a complete crap-shoot (none have ever raced against more than 16 before, and even that many is rare/pretty much never happens).
The race distance is a mile and a quarter, and the longest any of the entrants have run up to this point in their young careers. So not only are you dealing with a 20-horse traffic jam, but you’re also unsure if they can handle running that far. A lot can’t.
It’s at Churchill Downs in Louisville, KY
The 20-horse field is determined by designated Derby Prep races held in the months before the Derby. But most horses qualify for the race in March and early April. The other big “unknown” going into these races- A lot of these horses haven’t run against each other. The Derby prep races happen everywhere from Florida to New York to Louisiana to California to Dubai…. yes… Dubai.
This year has been pretty much anarchy in the preps. Arkansas (Oaklawn) had 4 Derby preps- 4 different winners. California (Santa Anita) had 3- 3 different winners. New York (Aqueduct) had 3- 3 different winners. And it was the same for horses finishing in the top 4 or 5 in those preps. Horses took turns finishing ahead of each other. There was one undefeated standout that has only run twice this year- Nyquist. He will be the favorite, but a lot of people think he can be beat. After him, it’s 19 horses that just seem to have some good days and bad days… and aren’t very consistent.
#1 Trojan Nation 50-1ML
How he qualified for the Derby: Wood Memorial 2nd Place
Jockey: Aaron Gryder Trainer: Patrick Gallagher
Trojan Nation is a maiden- which means he’s never won a race before. So how is a horse who’s never broken his maiden supposed to win the Kentucky Derby? In the Wood Memorial, he was agonizingly close to getting his 1st win in a million-dollar race. If he backs up that performance in the Kentucky Derby, he’ll be passing a lot of horses late. Can he pass them all? There’s a good chance he’ll be at the longest odds in the race. You’ll definitely get the right betting value if you’re willing to take a chance on him.
POSITIVES
For never winning a race, he hasn’t been a complete embarrassment. He’s finished in the top 3 in his last 3 starts (6 career races). He only has 1 career finish worse than 4th.
His monster race in the Wood shows that he has no problem handling the mud if it rains on Derby day.
He was in last place by a lot of lengths in the Wood and finished strong to gain 2nd. The Wood and his race before that he’s been taken back a lot further than he had been in his previous races. This has allowed him to conserve his energy early and close in on the horses ahead of him late. It seems they’ve found a running style that suits him.
For all the great pedigrees of all the Kentucky Derby runners, how good their daddys and their mamas were: Trojan Nation’s daddy, Street Cry, is the only sire of any horse in this field that has a kiddo that won the Kentucky Derby: Street Sense in 2007. Trojan Nation’s owner seems to think this horse will continue to improve with added distance, and his bloodlines seem to back that up.
Trained by steady So-Cal trainer Patrick “Paddy” Gallagher. The guy holds his own on a very tough racing circuit.
His jockey is steady veteran Aaron Gryder. He has plenty of experience riding at Churchill Downs and has ridden in 3 previous Kentucky Derbies
He beat Derby entrant Shagaf in the Wood
3 maidens have actually won the Kentucky Derby before. The last one winning in 1933. So at least it’s been done before lol.
NEGATIVES
The last maiden to compete in a Kentucky Derby was 1998. Between 1945 and 1998, 9 maidens have competed in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish of that bunch: 8th Place.
So he’s never won, right? Well it’s not like he’s been beaten up by the best of the best either. No other horse that he’s lost to beside Outwork is in the Derby field. Only one other horse that he ran against has even run in a Derby prep race.
It took until the Wood for him to have better than a 3rd place finish in a race. The timing was great, but is he getting better or is he just not that good?
Let me make sure this rings through as clear as possible: HE’S A MAIDEN! HE’S NEVER WON BEFORE!!!
#2 Suddenbreakingnews 20-1 ML
Jockey: Luis Quinonez Trainer Donnie von Hemmel
How he qualified for the Derby: Arkansas Derby 2nd Place
Suddenbreakingnews will be at/near the back of the pack and should be thundering home late. But there’s been a worrisome trend in his past few races that it may take him too long to get rolling. If he can time his finishing run right, he’s very dangerous. If he doesn’t, the race might already be over before he even gets started.
Jockey: Luis Quinonez Trainer: Donnie von Hemmel
POSITIVES
8 Career Starts: Only 1 finish worse than 2nd-place
He’s another back-of-the-pack late-rallying type. When he gets up to full speed, he can pass horses in a hurry. Once he got rolling he didn’t end up all that far behind Creator. You can argue that he was even gaining on Creator a little bit towards the end of the race.
What’s interesting with Suddenbreakingnews is in his first 5 races he actually ran much closer to the front runners in early parts of races than he has this year. He’s been effective running from the back of the pack, but don’t be surprised if he’s closer to the lead in the Derby.
He has breeding that should allow him to run all day. His daddy is Mineshaft. He never ran in the Derby because he ran most of his 3 year-old season in Europe. But once he came to the US and ran on dirt, he won almost everything. He ended his career winning 2 prestigious stakes races at 1 1/4 miles on dirt. His grandaddy on his mama’s side is Afleet Alex. Afleet Alex finished 3rd in the Derby, and went on to win the Preakness and Belmont stakes.
He’s beaten Whitmore twice in past races.
NEGATIVES
In both the Rebel Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. It’s not only that Suddenbreakingnews sits way at the back of the pack, it’s that it seems to take him forever to get fully cranked up to top speed. When he gets rolling toward the end of races, he flies home like a runaway train. But also like a train, it takes forever to get him up to full-speed. This caused both Creator and Whitmore to get the jump on him in the last 2 races. He needs to find a way to get moving sooner. Otherwise the Derby will be done before he even gets running.
Creator has beaten him the last 2 races. Whitmore beat him in the Rebel stakes.
What if the front-runners are able to slow the pace down enough that they’ve conserved enough energy to keep running strong throughout the race? “Pace makes the race”applies equally to the back-of-the-pack deep-closers too. If they don’t have a hot, fast pace to run into, it makes it so much more difficult for them to pass the front-runners.
Horses that sit towards the back of the pack in the early part of races have to deal with all the traffic that the front-runners normally don’t have to. When he’s ready to make his strong finishing run, will he be able to find a clear path around/in-between 19 other horses to do so?
#3 Creator 10-1ML
How he qualified for the Derby: He won the Arkansas Derby
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Creator looked really impressive in winning the Arkansas Derby. He’s another back of the pack late-running type that should be flying late.
POSITIVES
8 Career races: 2 wins. He’s only finished worse than 3rd-place in 1 race.
He’s starting to gain a reputation for these furious last-to-first rallies. If you watch a youtube clip of this race, he’s so far behind that he doesn’t even enter the picture until halfway through the race.
Trained by Hall-of-famer Steve Asmussen. Asmussen is at/near the top of the Churchill Downs trainer standings every year.
His jockey is Ricardo Santana Jr. He’s one of the top jockeys at Churchill Downs.
His daddy is the hottest sire/stallion in the game right now (with highest stud fee to boot… meaning it costs more to make babies with him than any other stallion right now). His name is Tapit. Tapit babies seem to be able to win regardless of the surface, distance, environment, etc. and they do so often. Along with Creator, Derby entrants Lani and Mohaymen are also Tapit babies.
He beat Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore at their own game. All 3 are deep closers but he beat them.
He finished 2nd in a maiden race in the mud at Churchill, so at least he’s had some success at the track.
NEGATIVES
Asmussen has never won a Derby. It’s the one race that continues to plague a pretty amazing resume. Neither has jockey Ricardo Santana.
If the front-runners are able to slow down the pace, it’ll be very difficult for Creator to close with the same rush as he did in Arkansas. If the front-runners aren’t tiring out they’ll just keep on running and won’t back out.
What if the front-runners are able to slow the pace down enough that they’ve conserved enough energy to keep running strong throughout the race? “Pace makes the race”applies equally to the back-of-the-pack deep-closers too. If they don’t have a hot, fast pace to run into, it makes it so much more difficult for them to pass the front-runners.
Horses that sit towards the back of the pack in the early part of races have to deal with all the traffic that the front-runners normally don’t have to. When he’s ready to make his strong finishing run, will he be able to find a clear path around/in-between 19 other horses to do so?
Whitmore beat him in the Rebel Stakes. Determining who is better between the 3 of these horses might come down to who gets the best Derby trip.
#4 Mo Tom 20-1 ML
Jockey: Corey Lanerie Trainer: Tom Amoss
How he qualified for the Derby: Winner of the Lemcomte Stake, 3rd in the Risen Star, 4th in the Louisiana Derby
Jockey: Corey Lanerie Trainer: Tom Amoss
Mo Tom might be the biggest Jekyll and Hyde horse in the Derby field. When he doesn’t get in his own way, his furious late rally makes him a big threat. But both the Louisiana Derby and the Risen Star show how much trouble the horse seems to find. If you think he can somehow get a clean run in the Derby, you’ll get very kind odds to back up that opinion.
POSITIVES
7 Lifetime Starts: 3 wins and 3 3rd-place finishes. He’s never finished worse than 4th. Even with all the trouble he had in the Louisiana Derby, he still somehow managed a 4th-place finish. That’s pretty impressive under the circumstances.
He’s beaten Tom’s Ready multiple times. He beat Gun Runner in the mud at Churchill last year.
2 Starts at Churchill Downs: 1 Win, 1 3rd. The 3rd place finish came in the mud, so if it rains on Derby day it shouldn’t bother him.
There’s a good chance he’ll be towards the back of the pack in the early parts of the Derby. But when he unleashes his late run, he can swallow up horses in a hurry. When the front-runners start tiring out in the Derby, Mo Tom is likely to be one of the runners flying home late. There’s a good chance he’ll be able to blow by most of them.
There’s speculation that if he hadn’t encountered so much trouble in the final stretch of both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, that he might’ve beaten Gun Runner in either/both of those races. The finishes would certainly have been much closer if he was able to make a clean run.
His daddy is Uncle Mo. His 3 year-old sons and daughters are his first progeny to race (this is his first “crop”/group of horses to make it to the race track), and he seems to be a home-run Sire/Stud. His babies are winning anywhere and everywhere over different surfaces and different distances. To have 3 horses sired by Uncle Mo in the Kentucky Derby is a huge deal for his stallion prospects. Nyquist, Outwork and Mo Tom are all sons of Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo never ran in the Derby. He was 2 year-old horse of the year after winning the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (the most prestigious race for 2 year-olds). In his 3 year old season he lost the Wood Memorial, and was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after getting sick. He never was able to fully get over a rash of illnesses over the course of his 3 year-old season, and was retired to stud later in the year. So no one really knows how good Uncle Mo could’ve been if he were healthy, but he’s certainly gotten off to a very promising career as a stallion.
He’s trained by solid Louisiana/Kentucky-based trainer Tom Amoss. Amoss sends his good ones to run in Kentucky and they’re always to be respected when they’re entered to run at Churchill.
His jockey is one of the best at Churchill Downs in Corey Lanerie.
NEGATIVES
So about Lanerie… as good as he’s been- he’s as much to blame for Mo Tom’s troubles as the horse himself. Lanerie decided 2 races in a row to have Mo Tom fly home near the rail. This is always a dangerous proposition, because that’s where most of the tired out front runners are hanging out. If they’re in his way, he has nowhere to go. This choice cost Mo Tom severely in the Louisiana Derby, and to a lesser extent in the Risen Star. Tom Amoss was so mad at Lanerie immediately after the Louisiana Derby, that Amoss took Lanerie off of the rest of the horses he was scheduled to ride for Amoss later in the day. After cooler heads prevailed, Amoss named Lanerie to ride Mo Tom in the Derby again. Lanerie can’t do much worse with the horse than he’s done in the last 2 races.
A part of the problem has been Lanerie, but some horses just find trouble. Always getting blocked, losing their momentum, bad starts, bad trips, etc. Whether Lanerie is the cause or the horse is the cause, can this horse find a clear path to navigate around/in-between 19 other horses? His last 2 races don’t provide the most optimism for that.
What if the front-runners are able to slow the pace down enough that they’ve conserved enough energy to keep running strong throughout the race? “Pace makes the race”applies equally to the back-of-the-pack deep-closers too. If they don’t have a hot, fast pace to run into, it makes it so much more difficult for them to pass the front-runners.
What could’ve happened doesn’t matter when it comes to the official order of finish. Gun Runner has beaten Mo Tom twice in a row. And it’s equally debatable that even with a clean trip that Mo Tom would’ve caught Gun Runner in either race. Tom’s Ready finished ahead of him in the Louisiana Derby too. Mor Spirit has also beaten Mo Tom at Churchill Downs last fall.
Since this group of 3 year-olds is Uncle Mo’s first group of kiddos to make it to the races, no one knows from a breeding perspective if ‘Mo is a sire that can produce runners that want to go this far. This race will go a long way in answering that question, but until then it’s a mystery.
#5 Gun Runner 10-1 ML
Jockey: Florent Geroux Trainer: Steve Asmussen
How he qualified for the Derby: Winner of both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby
Jockey: Florent Geroux Trainer: Steve Asmussen
In a year where a lot of horses seem to be taking turns beating each other, arguably the most consistent performer outside of Derby favorite Nyquist has been Gun Runner. 2 starts this year- 2 wins. But there have been plenty of really good looking horses that have come out of Fairgrounds/Louisiana Derby over the years to stumble in the Kentucky Derby. Can Gun Runner buck a bad trend of horses coming out of Louisiana in the Derby?
POSITIVES
5 Career starts, 4 wins. He’s never finished worse than 4th. With only 5 career starts, he’s still eligible to mature/improve physically
The Louisiana Derby was only his 2nd race of the year. He took an almost 3-month break from racing from the end of November to the end of February. These breaks are called “layoffs”. A horse is usually in peak racing/physical condition in their 3rd start coming back from a layoff. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd Start off the layoff.
He’s trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. Asmussen is a leading trainer every year at Churchill Downs. Asmussen also trains Derby entrant Creator.
He’s beaten Derby entrants Mo Tom twice and Tom’s Ready 3 times.
He loves to sit right off of the early race leaders, and pounce on them turning for home. Combo that with his inside #5 post position, and he should be sitting in an ideal spot to execute his best run. The post position draw definitely went well for him.
His daddy is Candy Ride. Candy Ride didn’t run in the Derby because he started his racing career in South America. But the horse won all 6 career starts, the longest being at 1 1/4 miles. Gun Runner’s grandaddy on his mama’s side is Giant’s Causeway. As mentioned with a few others contenders in this race, Giant’s Causeway finished 2nd in the 2000 Breeder’s Cup Classic at 1 1/4 Miles. That race was run at Churchill Downs. So he has major stamina pedigree from both dad and mom.
His jockey is promising up-and-coming rider Florent Geroux. Geroux recently won the Fairgrounds riding title and is a mainstay at Churchill Downs. The jockey really has a promising career ahead of him. His familiarity with Churchill should put Gun Runner in the best position to run well on Derby day.
There has been some recent success in the Kentucky Derby for horses coming out of the Louisiana Derby. In 2013 Golden Soul finished 2nd, and 2014 Commanding Curve finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby
He has a win at Churchill Downs. Knowing that he can run well over that surface when other horses haven’t even run on it yet is a big deal.
NEGATIVES
There have been so many hyped horses to come out of Fairgrounds/Louisiana Derby over the years, AND THEY’VE PRETTY MUCH ALL FAILED IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY. Grindstone in 1996 was the last horse to win the Louisiana Derby, and then win in Kentucky. Before him, you have to go back decades to find another horse that won both races. That’s a lot of history for Gun Runner, Tom’s Ready and Mo Tom to buck.
Officially he’s beaten Mo Tom twice in a row. But look at all the trouble that Mo Tom has been in between this race and the Risen Star. Mo Tom looked to have a full head of steam coming for home. There’s “woulda, coulda, shoulda’s” for every horse. But Mo Tom might’ve beaten Gun Runner in one or both of those races with a cleaner trip.
Mo Tom did beat Gun Runner in his only loss. So did Derby entrant Mor Spirit.
That lone loss came at Churchill Downs on a sloppy/muddy race track. So what happens if it rains on Derby Day? His one failure came in the mud.
Asmussen has never won a Derby (but he did finish 2nd with Nehro in 2011).
The question that remains with all of the speedier horses in the race- can they carry the speed an extra 1/8 of a mile? That’ll be asking a lot of him, especially if the early pace heats up.
He had a dream trip in the Louisiana Derby. He was able to sit right on the rail right behind the early leaders. So he was able to save ground by having the inside track, and no one got in his way when he was ready to make his big finishing move. It’s doubtful with 19 other horses that he’ll have it that easy in the Derby. Can he overcome worse race positioning while running the furthest he’s ever run to still be effective in the Derby?
#6 My Man Sam 20-1ML
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Chad Brown
My Man Sam seems like a horse that’s improving with every start. But he needs to take another big jump forward to have a chance in the Derby. There are reasons to think he’s capable of it and others that limit his chances. He’ll be at long odds in the Derby, so the betting value is there if he’s ready to take that next step.
POSITIVES
4 lifetime starts: 1 win, 2 2nd-places finishes. With only 4 career races, he still is eligible to mature/improve.
He’s a back-of-the-pack deep closing type of horse. In the Bluegrass, he made a very-wide move around the final turn but still had plenty left for the finish. A repeat of that move and that should make him a threat to do damage late. He could be even more effective if not having to move around the final turn so wide next time.
His trainer is Chad Brown, who is one of the best in the game right now. He runs one of the top stables in New York, Gulfstream in the winter, and at Keeneland in the spring and fall. Those are arguably the top US racing circuits. He also trains Derby entrant Shagaf.
His jockey is top New York rider Irad Ortiz Jr. He rode My Man Sam for every race except the Bluegrass, and has also rode Shagaf in every race. So was it Ortiz’s choice to ride Sam? Does he think he has a better chance winning the Derby riding Sam than Shagaf?
NEGATIVES
The Bluegrass was his first stakes race, so he hasn’t beaten anyone in the Derby Field.
Not only did Brody’s Cause beat him in the Bluegrass, I don’t think he was gaining on Brody towards the end of the race either
Another key part of the race which I think separated Brody from Sam: Sam was sitting at the back of the pack. Brody was not only a few lengths ahead of him throughout, but Jockey Luis Saez timed his powerful closing move on Brody before Sam really got running. This positioned Brody better and essentially, Brody “got the jump” on Sam. Ortiz needs to be a little bit more aggressive a little bit earlier in the race. If he doesn’t, the race might be over before Sam ever gets running.
Whether it’s fair or not, Brown is starting to get pegged as a Turf (grass racing) specialist. Frankly he’s the top trainer in the game when it comes to grass horses. His win percentages on dirt are very good, but the one glaring hole in his resume is he’s never had a big-time dirt runner. Are the type of horses he has more apt to win grass races, or is it his training style/methods that is holding him back from having consistent major dirt winners?
What if the front-runners are able to slow the pace down enough that they’ve conserved enough energy to keep running strong throughout the race? “Pace makes the race”applies equally to the back-of-the-pack deep-closers too. If they don’t have a hot, fast pace to run into, it makes it so much more difficult for them to pass the front-runners.
Horses that sit towards the back of the pack in the early part of races have to deal with all the traffic that the front-runners normally don’t have to deal with. When he’s ready to make his strong finishing run, will he be able to find a clear path around/in-between 19 other horses to do so?
#7 Oscar Nominated 50-1 ML
Jockey: Julien Leparoux Trainer: Michael Maker
How he qualified for the Derby: Winner of the Spiral Stakes
Oscar Nominated’s path to the Derby is a little bizarre. But he earned his way in fair and square. The problem is, there are so many unknown factors with him in trying to gauge his Derby chances. The biggest unknown factor- He’s never run on a dirt racing surface before (I’ll explain… keep reading). Because of the unknown, he’ll be at huge odds in the Derby. If you think he has a chance to run a big race in the Derby, you’re getting the right odds to take a chance.
POSITIVES
7 Career starts- Never finished worse than 4th. Since owner Ken Ramsey bought him for $75,000 after his 2nd career start and was given to trainer Michael Maker last September, the horse has never finished worse than 2nd. 3 wins and 2 2nds in his last 5 starts.
Trained by one of the top trainers at Churchill Downs- Michael Maker. Not only do you have an accomplished trainer who has trained Derby contenders in past years, this is in his own back yard.
His jockey for the race is one of the best riders in the game- Julien Leparoux. He’s won multiple riding titles at Churchill Downs. Not only do you have a good jockey, but once again, this race is in Leparoux’s own back yard.
Oscar Nominated’s daddy is Kitten’s Joy. That’s probably why Ramsey bought Oscar Nominated for 75K. Ramsey owned Kitten’s Joy and now that he’s retired, owns Kitten’s Joy’s breeding rights. He’s been an extremely successful sire, and his babies can run all day on turf (grass). Kitten’s Joy won the most prestigious American turf races ranging in distances from 1 mile to 1 1/2 Miles. So there’s major stamina bloodlines in Oscar Nominated.
Ramsey is as sporting as they come for horse owners. He enters his horses against the top competition anywhere/everywhere. He had a pretty serious Derby contender a couple of years ago- Vicar’s in Trouble, who won the Louisiana Derby.
The horse has a good mid-pack/closing running style that can have him sitting as close as 3 lengths off the lead in the early stages of the race, or a little further back. This running style gives him a tactical advantage over some of the other late-running back-of-the-pack closers. He’ll most likely be ahead of them but can still come with the same type of strong finishing run needed to pass front-runners and win the Derby.
I’ve mentioned before that “pace makes the race”. He’s run in more than a few races recently where he was running behind horses that were setting very slow paces early in the race. It makes it that much tougher for a horse like him to pass those front-runners when they’re able to slow it down and conserve their energy. The Spiral is an example of this. For the horses that were leading the early parts of that race, all of them kept running strong all the way to the finish. The only horse that was truly able to go around and pass them all- Oscar Nominated.
The Spiral produced 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. So there has been past Derby success coming out of the race. Like Oscar Nominated, Animal Kingdom had never run on dirt before the Derby either.
NEGATIVES
As good of a race record as Oscar Nominated has, all of his races have been on turf (grass) and poly track. HE’S NEVER RUN A RACE ON DIRT BEFORE
The Spiral stakes is run at Turfway Park. Its surface isn’t dirt, but kinda like the astro-turf equivalent to dirt called “Poly-Track”. It started being installed at tracks around the world in the late 90s/early 2000s for 2 reasons- 1) It handles harsh weather conditions better than dirt. If it rains on dirt, the dirt turns into slop/mud. On poly, the water drains off it much better, so the surface stays mostly in the same condition regardless of weather. 2) It’s debatable how true this is, but it’s considered an overall safer racing surface for horses. The problem with the surface- Is even though it was intended to be a dirt substitute, dirt horses don’t seem to run as well on it as turf horses do. Where a lot of turf horses, when they try dirt they fail. But when they run on poly they can run as strong as they have on grass. What I’m ultimately getting at, is Oscar Nominated’s win in the Spiral gives us no indication if he can handle dirt or not.
Horses don’t just qualify for the Derby by performing well in the Kentucky Derby Prep races, the owners need to pay a nomination fee. If done so when they’re born, it’s minimal. Even up to March 21 this year, the nomination fee was only $6,000. That may seem like a lot, but with the hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars you can win between running in the Derby preps and the Derby itself, it’s a good investment. Ramsey didn’t nominate the horse at any point. Once Oscar Nominated won the Spiral, he needed to pay $200,000 to get him into the Derby (even though he qualified for the Derby by winning the Spiral). Ramsey announced after the race, that if a $200K investor could be found, the person would get a half ownership share in the horse. It took less than 24 hours to find an investor (although that person hasn’t been identified). Since Ramsey never nominated the horse to the Triple Crown, he must’ve never thought of the horse as a Kentucky Derby contender.
Kitten’s Joy is one of the best Turf sires in the world. But the word “Turf”must be emphasized. Kitten’s Joy’s kiddos rarely win on dirt, and most aren’t even raced on dirt for that reason. Ramsey desperately wants a strong performance from Oscar Nominated in the Derby to prove to critics that Kitten’s Joy can produce quality dirt runners too. But up to now, those quality dirt runners are pretty much non-existent.
Top Churchill jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has chosen to ride Derby contender Tom’s Ready instead of Oscar Nominated. For Hernandez to make that choice, he must feel his chances of winning the Derby are better with Tom’s Ready.
Not only has Oscar Nominated not beaten anyone running in the Kentucky Derby field, he hasn’t run against a single horse in the Derby field either.
Horses that sit towards the back of the pack in the early part of races have to deal with all the traffic that the front-runners normally don’t have to deal with. When he’s ready to make his strong finishing run, will he be able to find a clear path around/in-between 19 other horses to do so?
#8 Lani 30-1 ML
Jockey: Yutaka Take Trainer: Mikio Matsunaga
How did he qualified for the Derby: Winner of the UAE Derby (Dubai)
Lani has history against him. Derby horses that qualified in Dubai have a horrible record in the Derby. But he might be the biggest grinder in the Derby field. There are some reasons to think Lani can buck the trend and be a factor in Kentucky.
POSITIVES
If you are to watch just one Youtube clip of any of the Derby contenders, this is the one I’d have you watch. Reason being- For all the trouble he went through in this race, 99/100 horses wouldn’t have just lost this race, they wouldn’t even be close. He stumbles to his knees right when the gates open. By the time he settles into stride, he’s spotted the field 10 lengths. About halfway through the race he inches his way to the front of the pack, but he’s running extremely wide. So as they enter the final turn, he’s losing plenty of ground to the horses running to the inside of him. On top of that his jockey starts whipping him to keep up. When this happens before the final stretch, it usually means the horse is getting tired when they should be unleashing their final big run. So in every part of the race he’s pretty much had everything go against him. Once they hit the stretch, his jockey is still repeatedly whipping him. He’s not able to quicken and catch up to the lead horse, but yet he’s not losing any ground either. As they keep getting closer and closer to the finish, he’s still not gaining on the lead horse. In the final few hundred yards, he finally grinds down the leader and wins the race, and actually does so going away. He just kept running. It was a monster effort all things considered. Imagine how good he could be if he has a clean start, isn’t forced wide, isn’t forced to play catch-up just to make a late run.
6 Career races: 3 wins and 1 2nd-place finish. He’s never finished worse than 5th place in any race. And in that race where he finished 5th, he only lost by 2 (horse lengths). With the exception of the UAE Derby, he’s only raced in Japan.
He’s twice run further than any other horse in the Kentucky Derby field. The big unknown with all of the horses in this field, is how they’ll handle running 1 1/4 miles for the first time. Lani ran 1 1/4 miles in his career debut in Japan!. The UAE Derby distance is the furthest of any of the Kentucky Derby prep races: Lani won that race at 1 3/16 miles.
I’ve constantly mentioned the traffic issues that a race with 20-horses can present: Lani has gone against fields of 16 twice, 15 and 14 in previous races. So he knows how to bob and weave his way through plenty of horses
He might actually have the best breeding in the race: His daddy is the hottest sire/stallion in the game right now (with highest stud fee to boot… meaning it costs more to make babies with him than any other stallion right now). His name is Tapit. Tapit babies seem to be able to win regardless of the surface, distance, environment, etc. and they do so often. Along with Lani, Derby entrants Creator and Mohaymen are also Tapit babies. Lani’s grandaddy on his mama’s side is Sunday Silence. He won the 1989 Kentucky Derby. His breeding is about as good as it gets for both class and distance.
His jockey Yutaka Take has ridden in the Kentucky Derby before. He rode the only other Japanese horse in the Derby back in 1995. He’s also ridden over 200 career races at various tracks across the US. So this won’t be his first experience with Churchill Downs.
He handled shipping from Japan all the way to Dubai, and won. So he does have experience successfully shipping to other locations to run.
I call him a grinder, because if you watch the replay of the UAE Derby, it looks like he runs pretty much the same speed from halfway through the race all the way to the finish. To be able to extend your big run for that long is a big deal.
NEGATIVES
Not sure if “curse” is the right word to use, but Dubai horses have never fared well in the Kentucky Derby. No horse has ever won the Derby shipping from Dubai. In fact, no horse has ever finished in the top 4… Yikes.
The lack of success on Derby day might have to do with the rigors of shipping/traveling. Historically, when US horses ship to Dubai to race, they usually get a long break after. The travel saps them, and they need time to recover. Will it be the same for Lani travelling here? Will all the travel leave him at 100% for the race? He came to the US shortly after winning in Dubai, so maybe the extra time to get acclimated can help him? But history says different.
The level of competition he’s faced in Japan and Dubai probably aren’t quite as good as what he’ll be facing in the Derby. Also, the overall speed/pace of American races will be a lot hotter than he’s used to. If his competition turns up the heat, can he keep up?
It’s unlikely that if he has anything similar to the amount of trouble that he had in Dubai, that he’ll overcome it in the Kentucky Derby.
There is no doubt that the horse can run for days. But how fast can he do it against the toughest competition he’s ever faced?
#9 Destin 15-1 ML
Jockey: Javier Castellano Trainer: Todd Pletcher
How he Qualified for the Derby: Won the Tampa Bay Derby
Destin has looked really good in his last 2 starts, both at Tampa Bay Downs. But have the owner and trainer of the horse gotten in the way of really good progress by not racing him since mid-March? Derby history isn’t on the horse’s side, but he’s certainly looked good when he’s run lately.
POSITIVES
5 career races, 3 wins and one 2nd. He’s never finished worse than 4th. He’s won 2 in a row.
Trained by future Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, he’s closing in on D. Wayne Lukas’ all-time record for most horses entered in the Derby (currently Lukas has 48, Pletcher 45). He won the race in 2010 with Super Saver. Pletcher also trains Outwork, who finished 2nd in this race before going onto win the Wood Memorial.
Destin’s jockey for the Derby is Javier Castellano, who’s won the Eclipse Award (think of the Emmy’s for horse racing) for most outstanding jockey 3 years in a row. The guy is arguably the best rider in the game. Castellano is one of 2 of Pletcher’s go-to riders, and they’ve won a ton of races together over the years.
It wasn’t just that Destin and Outwork smashed this field, they were legitimately fast in doing so. Destin’s winning time in the race set a Tampa Bay Downs track record for 1 1/16 miles.
Destin has a stalking running style. The horse has never been more than 5 lengths behind the leaders in the early stages of the race. When the front-runners start tiring he blows past them, but also has enough energy to hold off the hard-charging horses from the back of the pack. His running style should also mean that he encounters less traffic then the horses that will be behind him in the Derby. With only a few horses in front of him, he should have less traffic when he makes his big closing move.
His daddy is Giant’s Causeway. Giant’s Causeway is one of the top US sires annually. He never raced in the Derby (because he primarily raced in Europe), but finished 2nd by a head in the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic. That race is richest race in North America, and is run at 1 1/4 miles (the Kentucky Derby distance) on dirt. In 2000, it was run at Churchill Downs. Giant’s Causeway ran in 13 races in his career: 9 wins, 4 2nds. He’s passed on his class to a good amount of his kids. Derby entrant Brody’s Cause is also a son of Giant’s Causeway
He’s beaten Majesto, Outwork, and Brody’s Cause in previous races
After finishing 4th in a stakes race back in January (where Derby entrants Mo Tom and Tom’s Ready beat him), Pletcher made an adjustment to the blinkers that Destin wears to keep him better focused during races. Destin hasn’t lost since.
Pletcher does extremely well with horses that are coming off of layoffs (breaks from racing) between 46 and 90 days. He wins with 23% (really good) of his starters that are coming off those layoffs. So maybe just electing to give the horse workouts leading up to the Derby isn’t the worst idea?
Brody’s Cause and Outwork flattered him by winning their next races after losing to Destin in Tampa.
NEGATIVES
There’s wide speculation that it was the owner of Destin, not Pletcher who had this idea to not run Destin 1 more time between winning in Tampa and the Kentucky Derby. Was this really Pletcher’s plan? Horses that come off layoffs that long have historically bad records in the Derby. In the past 20 years, only Animal Kingdom has won the Derby on more than 6 weeks of rest. Destin is trying to do it on nearly 2 months of rest. Horses need to stay racing to stay sharp. Otherwise a lot of times they get rusty and need a couple of races to get back in peak physical condition/top racing form. Pletcher is capable of pulling this off, but Derby history says it’s very unlikely.
Further complicating that hasn’t run in another Derby Prep race after Tampa, is he hasn’t run further than 1 1/16 miles in his career. So now we have no idea how much further he can handle running. He looked great in Tampa, but 1 1/4 miles is a whole different animal.
Speaking of Pletcher: With Destin and Outwork in the Derby this year, he’s had 45 runners over the years in the Kentucky Derby. He only has 1 win to show for it. This race continues to plague an otherwise amazing resume.
Jockey Javier Castellano has never won a Kentucky Derby. It’s the one big blemish in his amazing career.
He lost to Mo Tom and Tom’s Ready at Fairgrounds in New Orleans back in January. Fairgrounds had 2 more Kentucky Derby prep races after that race, so why did Pletcher not try Destin again down there? Did he want no part of Mo Tom and Tom’s Ready again?
The Tampa Bay Derby hasn’t been a very good Derby prep for producing Kentucky Derby winners. In the past 25 years, only Street Sense in 2007 won this race and went on to win the Derby.
Destin has looked really good in his last couple of races. But can he handle the added distance and shake off the rust of not running for almost 2 months?
#10 Whitmore 20-1 ML
Jockey: Victor Espinoza Trainer: Ron Moquett
How he qualified for the Derby: 2nd in the Rebel Stakes, 3rd in the Arkansas Derby.
I think the Rebel Stakes shows what Whitmore is capable of more than the Arkansas Derby. He should be a longshot in Kentucky, but if he can repeat his Rebel run on Derby day, he could do some serious damage.
POSITIVES
6 career races, only one finish outside of the top 3 (2 wins).
He’s another of the deep-closing back-of-the-pack type of horses. But unlike most of those, he shown the ability to sit a little closer to the lead earlier in races. This was crucial for his success in the Rebel. He made his big finishing move earlier than most of his rivals and ended up almost winning the race for it. Being able to get the jump on his rivals while still being able to display a strong closing kick could be very advantageous in the Derby.
Some very good jockeys have ridden him in his brief career, but he might be getting the ultimate jockey upgrade for the Kentucky Derby:Victor Espinoza. Espinoza was American Pharoah’s jockey last year, and rode California Chrome to his Derby/Preakness wins 2 years ago. The guy is on fire right now.
He won his career debut at Churchill Downs. So he has proven success at the track.
His daddy is Pleasantly Perfect. Pleasantly Perfect won the Breeder’s Cup Classic (North America’s richest race) at 1 1/4 Miles in 2003.
He beat Suddenbreakingnews and Creator in this race
NEGATIVES
His lone finish outside of the top 3 was his lone start in the mud/slop. Is he capable of a rebound if it rains on Derby day?
Suddenbreakingnews has beaten him twice. Creator beat him in the Arkansas Derby. Exaggerator has beaten him too. Even when Whitmore brings his “A” game, is it good enough?
Suddenbreakingnews, and Creator both out-finished him in the Arkansas Derby. Since his closing kick isn’t quite as strong as those 2, it’s crucial that he gets better earlier positioning on them and makes his move sooner (like what happened in the Rebel). If he doesn’t, they’ll probably out-finish him again on Derby day.
A part of the problem with him being out-run at the end, is maybe he’s getting tired. Does he really want to run 1 1/4 miles? As effective as he’s been, his 2 wins were in 3/4 mile (6 furlong) sprints. As good as the Rebel result was, he couldn’t sustain his big closing run. Was he tiring out late in the race?
What if the front-runners are able to slow the pace down enough that they’ve conserved enough energy to keep running strong throughout the race? “Pace makes the race”applies equally to the back-of-the-pack deep-closers too. If they don’t have a hot, fast pace to run into, it makes it so much more difficult for them to pass the front-runners.
Horses that sit towards the back of the pack in the early part of races have to deal with all the traffic that the front-runners normally don’t have to. When he’s ready to make his strong finishing run, will he be able to find a clear path around/in-between 19 other horses to do so?
#11 Exaggerator 8-1ML
Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
How he qualified for the Derby: Won the Santa Anita Derby, 3rd in the San Felipe
Holy moly… Exaggerator freaked in the Santa Anita Derby! But was it a mud-aided freakout? Or is he peaking at the right time and the Santa Anita Derby was just the tip of the iceberg? This effort probably makes him 2nd-betting favorite to Nyquist (and will definitely be that if it rains on Derby day), and can you blame people after the way he looked at Santa Anita? But for being one of the bigger hyped horses going into the Derby, there’s some serious flaws that he needs to overcome.
POSITIVES
9 Career Races: 4 wins, 2 2nd-place finishes and 1 3rd. The most recent win being a smashing 6 (horse) length victory in the Santa Anita Derby
He’s raced 3 times in the mud/slop: 2 wins, 1 2nd-place finish. He becomes an even bigger Derby threat if it rains
He’s a California-based horse, but he’s run in races in New York, Louisiana and Kentucky: His record in those 4 races- 2 wins, a 2nd and a 4th-place finish. Traveling to Churchill Downs shouldn’t be an issue for him
His jockey is hall of famer Kent Desormeaux. He’s won 3 Kentucky Derbies. His brother Keith is the trainer of the horse. Keith is a sold So-Cal based trainer. The whole family seems to benefit from this horse’s success.
His daddy is Curlin. Curlin finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness, and ended up becoming North America’s all-time leading money-winner. He won over $10million in his racing career. Breeding/pedigree give him a good chance to handle the Kentucky Derby distance.
Has a versatile running style. There have been races where he sits only a length or 2 off the lead and stalks the front-runners. But in his last couple of races he’s sat much further back in the early parts of the race and came flying home with big late runs. This versatility could really serve him well in the Derby. Desormeaux might let the Derby traffic dictate where he sits in the early going. He should be effective from wherever Desormeaux has him placed early in the Derby.
This horse has taken on the best of the best of this year’s 3 year-olds. In addition to beating Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy in the Santa Anita Derby, he’s beaten Whitmore as well.
NEGATIVES
It’s true that he’s taken on the best 3 year olds this year… and he’s lost repeatedly to a bunch of them. Nyquist has beaten him 3 times, Brody’s Cause has beaten him twice, Danzing Candy and Mor Spirit have both beaten him.
Some horses love to run in the mud, some don’t. He’s had plenty of success on fast/dry dirt tracks too, but is he only capable of having monster efforts in the mud? Although he’s had some solid results on fast/dry tracks, he hasn’t won a race in those track conditions since last August.
His closing run in the Santa Anita Derby is good enough to make him a win threat. His closing run in the San Felipe Stakes where he made a big move, but couldn’t sustain it will doom him.
The conflict when trying to gauge his chances against the rest of the Derby field is weighing his really good last race vs the previous races where he was beaten by so many other Derby contenders. Is he now fully realizing his potential, or was the Santa Anita Derby a mud-aided fluke?
#12 Tom’s Ready 30-1ML
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. Trainer: Dallas Stewart
How he qualified for the Derby: Louisiana Derby 2nd Place
Tom’s Ready has a trainer that knows about recent Derby success with underrated/undervalued horses. After a strong 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, there’s some very good reasons to be optimistic about him putting on a good performance in Kentucky. But he’s been repeatedly beaten by a couple of his Kentucky Derby opponents. Can he improve enough to turn the tables on them? He’ll be at pretty big odds if you think he’s sitting on a big race.
POSITIVES
9 Career Starts: 1 win and 4 2nd-place finishes. He finished a strong 2nd in the Louisiana Derby.
3 Career Starts at Churchill Downs: 1 win, 1 second. So his lone career win came at Churchill
Steady Churchill Downs-based jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. has ridden Tom’s Ready 4 times: 1 win and 2 2nd-place finishes in those 4 starts. He rode him in the Louisiana Derby. Hernandez chose to ride Tom’s Ready instead of Oscar Nominated in the Derby. He must think Tom’s Ready has a better chance to win between the 2 of them.
Solid Churchill trainer Dallas Stewart is starting to get a reputation as a trainer that can get the most out of his horses on Derby day. He was the trainer of both Golden Soul in 2013 and Commanding Curve in 2014. Both finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby at over 30-1 odds. Both of those horses final race before the Derby: the Louisiana Derby.
The horse has a good mid-pack/closing running style that can have him sitting as close as 3 lengths off the lead in the early stages of the race, or a little further back. This running style gives him a tactical advantage over some of the other late-running back-of-the-pack closers. He’ll most likely be ahead of them but can still come with the same type of strong finishing run needed to pass front-runners and win the Derby.
NEGATIVES
Tom’s Ready has been repeatedly beaten by Gun Runner and Mo Tom. Mor Spirit also beat him in a race at Churchill last year. Can he improve enough to turn the tables on them?
His only race in the mud/slop was the worst race of his career. That race was at Churchill. So what happens if it rains on Derby day? Based off that one race it’s shaky at best that he’ll wanna run in the mud with the big dogs.
For the decent amount of success that he’s had in his young career, he’s still only won 1 time.
His 2nd-place finish in the Louisiana Derby was a strong effort. But he wasn’t gaining on Gun Runner at any point. He needs to improve.
For being a runner with a strong, late, come-from-behind closing kick in most of his races, Mo Tom has been more effective than him employing the same tactics. If not for all the trouble Mo Tom got into in this race, it’s pretty fair to assume he would’ve finished ahead of Tom’s Ready in the Louisiana Derby.
Horses that sit towards the back of the pack in the early part of races have to deal with all the traffic that the front-runners normally don’t have to deal with. When he’s ready to make his strong finishing run, will he be able to find a clear path around/in-between 19 other horses to do so?
#13 Nyquist 3-1ML
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Trainer: Doug O’Neill
How he qualified for the Derby: Won the Florida Derby
Nyquist backed up his hype and won this race in pretty convincing fashion. He’s undefeated and will be the Kentucky Derby favorite. But a lot of people are convinced that he’s vulnerable on Derby Day.
POSITIVES
He’s undefeated. 7 starts. 7 wins.
He’s trained by Doug O’Neill, and ridden by Mario Gutierrez. Those 2 trained/rode I’ll Have Another when he won the 2012 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. So they both have past experience winning the Derby.
There’s always the constant question with horses that qualify for the Derby running in California-can they handle shipping east for the first time? A lot don’t like the travel or getting taken out of their normal environment. Nyquist won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile on Halloween last year at Keeneland in Kentucky. He shipped east again in winning the Florida Derby. So the travel hasn’t seemed to bother him.
He’s beaten other Derby entrants Exaggerator (3 times), Brody’s Cause, Mohaymen and Majesto in past races.
The Derby a lot of times is known as a 20-horse traffic jam, where horses don’t do well because they get blocked, bumped, their momentum gets stopped, etc. When Nyquist won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile he was bumped hard out of the gate, forced really wide around the turn, and still found a way to win the race. So he’s faced some adversity and overcome it to win anyway.
Has a versatile front-running style which can either put him on the lead or have him sitting right off of the leaders in the early parts of the race. This should make it easier to avoid some of the traffic issues that other horses that come from behind have to deal with. If the pace is slow early he can go to the front without exerting too much early energy. If a couple of other horses decide to heat the early pace up, he can sit off them and blow by them when they get tired.
After he won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, he was given a break/rest (called a “layoff”) from racing until mid-February of this year. Most horses are in peak physical/racing condition in their 3rd start back from a layoff. The Kentucky Derby will be his 3rd start off that layoff from last year. He should be cranked to run big here.
Before the Florida Derby, it had been raining pretty hard most of the day. The track had been begun to dry out by the time the Florida Derby was run, but you can still see significant puddles all over the track as the race was run. Some horses hate the mud, slop, wet tracks, etc. The wet surface didn’t seem to affect him at all. So if it rains on Kentucky Derby day, you have an example of a time where he handled running over a wet racing surface just fine.
His daddy is Uncle Mo. His 3 year-old sons and daughters are his first progeny to race (this is his first “crop” group of horses to make it to the race track), and he seems to be a home-run Sire/Stud/Father/whatever. His babies are winning anywhere and everywhere over different surfaces and different distances. To have 3 horses sired by Uncle Mo in the Kentucky Derby is a huge deal for his stallion prospects. Nyquist, Outwork and Mo Tom are all sons of Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo himself never ran in the Derby. He, like Nyquist was 2 year-old horse of the year after winning the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. In his 3 year old season he lost the Wood Memorial (a Derby prep that I’ll cover in a future post won by his son Outwork this year), and was scratched from the Kentucky Derby after getting sick. He never was able to fully get over a rash of illnesses over the course of his 3YO season, and was retired to stud later in the year. So no one really knows how good Uncle Mo could’ve been if he were healthy, but he’s certainly gotten off to a very promising career as a stallion.
NEGATIVES
There are a few things that seem a little nit-picky for an undefeated horse, but there all some valid concerns with him going forward
His front-running style makes him vulnerable to a pace duel. Whether he’s setting the pace or sits right off the leaders, if they’re going too fast early he’ll expend too much energy that he needs for the final part of the race. There’s a general saying in horse racing- “pace makes the race.”For front-running horses, it’s their job to get the lead, but to go as slow as possible while on the lead, so they can conserve their energy throughout the race. If too many horses go for the lead early, they usually speed up the pace trying to wrestle the lead from each other. When they do that, they’ve expended too much energy early on and horses come from behind have a better chance to pass them late in the race. So can he sit close to the lead without expending too much energy, running at the longest distance he’s ever run before? Determining if he can run THAT fast for THAT far on the lead is the biggest question for this race, and won’t be answered until the race is run.
He was pretty dominant in the Florida Derby. But once he starts getting a bigger lead in the final stages of the race, he starts to drift to the outer part of the track and then back in. A lot of horses do this when they start to tire out. It’s pure speculation if that’s what was actually happening with him or not. Some people think he was tiring out and that leave him vulnerable at the longer Derby distance. Others think he was distracted by the large crowd and it made him drift (this kind of stuff can happen from big crowds, shadows on the track, puddles, jumbo-trons, etc. It’s more common than you think). Regardless of the reason, he needs to keep to task and run straight and strong down the lane.
Since this group of 3 year-olds is Uncle Mo’s first group of kiddos to make it to the races, no one knows from a breeding perspective if ‘Mo is a sire that can produce runners that want to go this far. This race will go a long way in answering that question, but until then it’s a mystery.
#14 Mohaymen 10-1ML
Jockey: Junior Alvarado Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
How he qualified for the Derby: Won the Fountain of Youth Stakes
His Fountain of Youth performance gives him a good chance to run big in the Kentucky Derby. A repeat of the clunker he ran in the Florida Derby will doom him. Was he exposed in the Florida Derby for not being as good as his undefeated (going into the race) record advertised? Or did he just have an off-day? There are legit reasons to think either can happen, and if you’re willing to bet him to have a big rebound in Kentucky, you’ll now get betting value that you never would’ve had if he ran a strong race in the Florida Derby.
POSITIVES
6 career races: 5 wins. The only time he was beaten was his last race when he finished a very distant 4th to Nyquist and Majesto in the Florida Derby.
5 of his 6 races have come at distances of 1 mile or longer. He has a win a 1 1/8 miles and 2 wins at 1 1/16 miles.
He likes to stalk the front-runners. Usually sits 2-3 lengths off the front, and makes a big move to blow by them later in races. This running style should mean he’ll have a lot less traffic trouble than most of the late-running back-of-the-pack closers. Since he sits close to the lead, he’ll have less horses to pass (and less that can get in his way).
His daddy is the hottest sire/stallion in the game right now (with highest stud fee to boot… meaning it costs more to make babies with him than any other stallion right now). His name is Tapit. Tapit babies seem to be able to win regardless of the surface, distance, environment, etc. and they do so often. Along with Mohaymen, Derby entrants Creator and Lani are also Tapit babies.
He was winning with such ease last year and earlier this year, that by the time the Fountain of Youth was about to be run, no one wanted to run their horses against him (they found only 6 horses to race for a purse of $400K. Usually for that much money trainers will enter their horses to try to scoop up 3rd-place money). Gulfstream Park during the winter months hosts some of the best trainers in the game, and they sent their Derby contenders elsewhere to run.
Owned by Shadwell Stable and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, these 2 have teamed up to win plenty of big races all over the world. McLaughlin trained Frosted to a 4th place finish in the Derby last year.
In regard to the traffic and trouble the Derby can provide, Mohaymen got a little taste of trouble in the beginning of the Fountain of Youth when he was bumped hard going around the first turn and was forced really wide. He still overcame that early trouble to win easily.
So he faltered in the Fl