There follows the first in a series of posts that breaks down the players eligible, either automatically or by early entry, for the 2014 NBA Draft. This list is for the NCAA centres, or centers if you'd prefer.
As ever, the list is about 35 players longer than it needs to be, because one of these days, the NBA draft will be forty six rounds long. Just like it used to be. On that day, we shall rejoice.
Also as ever, some position assignments are slightly arbitrary, yet, because they matter not on the court, they should matter not in their classifications within this series either. This arbitrariness is particularly relevant to the centres list, because if everyone was listed at the position at which they were likely best, the centres list would have about 12 people and the power forwards list would have about 84. So some slight liberties have been taken. All do, have or could play the centre position enough to get away with it.
And, as ever, players are listed in no particular order other than the order they were thought of.
Lazy links:
Joel Embiid - Mitch McGary
- Alec Brown - Jordan Bachynski - Aaric Murray - Jordan Heath - Sam Dower - Talib Zanna - Davante Gardner - Chad Posthumus - Daniel Miller - Omar Oraby - Baye Moussa-Keita - Tarik Black - Garrick Sherman - Wally Judge - Rhamel Brown - Ian Chiles - Da'Shonte Riley - D.J. Haley - Chris Otule - Isaiah Austin - Jordan Vandenberg - John Bohannon - Ryan Watkins - Perris Blackwell - Jarred Shaw - Angus Brandt - Asauhn Dixon-Tatum - Alex Kirk - Ben Aird - Sim Bhullar - Majok Majok - Kyle Tresnak - D.J. Cunningham - D.J. Covington - Eugene Teague - Shayne Whittington - Rob Loe
Long thumbs. #advancedscouting
Joel Embiid, Kansas, Freshman, 7'0 250lbs
2013/14 stats: 23.1 mpg, 11.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.6 bpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 spg, 3.4 fpg, 2.4 TOpg, 62.6% FG, 68.5% FT
Whenever people talk about Embiid, they like to mention Hakeem Olajuwon. They like to say things to the extent of, "while I'm not saying he's the next Olajuwon - there will NEVER be another Olajuwon - Joel Embiid reminds me of Hakeem Olajuwon", or words to that effect. The point is always to state that Embiid reminds us of Olajuwon without ever risking the blasphemy that automatically seems to accompany comparing anybody to a great one. It is pretty grating.
Someone should probably just come out and say that Embiid is going to be the next Olajuwon. There is plenty of reason to think it. Embiid looks to be simply one of the most natural players to have ever played the game. Someone so new to it should not be so good at it.
Obviously, there stands to be more seasoning, hence the foul and turnover numbers. But the skill level Embiid has gained when so young and so new to the sport is incredible. The touch on the hook shot, the positional sense, rotations, already decent jumpshot, discipline so as to not bite on fakes (which could be seen to be improved upon throughout the year), jumpshot form, the whole shaboodle. And his body type was almost designed for the purpose. With the size, frame, speed, footwork, body control, leaping ability, hands and touch, he has the perfect frame for an NBA team of strength and conditioning coaches to hone.
So let's just go ahead and say it. Unless injuries prevent it, Embiid will pretty much be the next Olajuwon. The comparison doesn't have to be perfect to be legitimate, and comparisons to the greats are not blasphemous when they have a basis. Hedging when you only have one year of information to go on is understandable, but it's all we're getting before the draft, and it's been enough to show how good he already is. Let's all hope Embiid's frame holds up, because if it does, a special player awaits.
.......If.
If not, then, well. We're going to gain and lose a great one very quickly.
Note also: While it is acknowledged in the intro that the players in this are not listed in any order of ability, Embiid is, and the gap to the field is a big one.
You the man now, dog.
Mitch McGary, Michigan, Sophomore, 6'10 255lbs
2013/14 stats: 24.6 mpg, 9.5 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 1.5 apg, 1.9 spg, 3.1 fpg, 1.6 TOpg, 54.5% FG, 66.7% FT
McGary's presence here is odd, and only the case due to a ridiculous set of circumstances. For starters, he should have declared last year, back when his value was high, back when he was a key and stand-out part of a team that made it all the way to the national title game. Then, after missing the majority of this season with a back condition (pretty much the most worrying condition a big man can have), he likely should have stayed in school so as to best prove his health and re-establish his credentials on what will again be a quality Wolverines team. And perhaps he would have done were it not for this really stupid state of affairs. (Part of the development young adults is not villifying them for mistakes. Excessive penalties for minor mistakes is not a means of teaching accountability. It's a means of looking good. But hey ho, when did the NCAA ever put the man first?)
McGary will enter the NBA, then, with a bit to prove. Save for the eight games of non-conference play this year, the last we saw of McGary, we saw a determined, rugged and skilled player who was plenty effective enough but also had a bit to prove on the court. A tremendous offensive rebounder and opportunity scorer, McGary overcomes a slight size disadvantage with his motor and skill, a great complimentary player to any dynamic backcourt who flashes open, wins possessions and embodies a fighting spirit any team need adopt. He picks and rolls, he shoves on D, he attacks the ball, and he makes things happen. Yet he remains undersized, not a shooter, a wild player prone to rather forcing the issue at times and who projects unfavourably at any position. On the court, there is still a bit to overcome.
Let's not pretend there are off-the-court issues to overcome, though. That's just natural haughtiness shining through. Be more worried about the back. McGary's game is built around his physicality. How can you be physical with a bad back?
Somewhere between smug and sad face.
Patric Young, Florida, Senior, 6'9 240lbs
2013/14 stats: 26.3 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 6.2 apg, 1.1 rpg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg, 2.6 TOpg, 1.3 fpg, 54.1% FG, 59.6% FT
In 2011, after his freshman season, I said in an NCAA tournament preview that Patric Young was a future SEC Defensive Player of the Year. And this year, it finally happened.
Young's development has not been all that spectacular, growing and developing his game rather slowly over four years. It was not a meteoric ascent to DPOY calibre, else he probably would have declared for the draft a while ago. Nevertheless, Young has rounded into being an NBA player
Based on his size and physical tools, Young might be better suited to the power forward position. But in this smaller, shorter, faster NBA,
Good size, good wingspan, very athletic. Looks the part. Is inconsistent however and rebounds underwhelmingly considering these tools. Runs and dunks, can explode and is laterally quick. Has the profile to defend both the post and the perimeter, although the latter in particular needs work. Sags off. Offensively is a powerful finisher off of other's work not creating much in the post, save for a hook shot. Fouls a lot. Has not really developed. Little jumper, poor free throw stroke. Decent hands, can catch lobs for oops, or catch and gather.-->
Pulls this face a lot.
Alec Brown, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Senior, 7'1 235lbs
2013/14 stats: 30.3 mpg, 15.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.1 bpg, 1.0 apg, 0.5 spg, 2.2 fpg, 2.2 TOpg, 47.6% FG, 72.7% FT, 42.0% 3PT
A few players on this list either are, could be, will be or should be stretch bigs, but Brown already is one. His stat line is amazingly, captivatingly rare - who blocks three shots a game AND shoots 40%+ from three point range? Raef LaFrentz? Manute Bol in a dream state? Eric Snow on Opposites Day? [The correct answer is indeed LaFrentz; for one season only, in 2001/02.] You just don't see this, and of course, that makes it worth of further examination.
Said further examination, however, reveals some flaws. Brown is very thin for a big man, perhaps flattered by his listed weight, and for all his height, he has short arms. The jumpshot is his main offensive weapon, and a very good one, but it is also the only plus part of his offensive game. Brown receives quite a few touches down in the post, perhaps somewhat under duress, and can make a right handed hook shot from down there, yet it is somewhere he would rather not be. He struggles to body up, overly favours the right hand, struggles against double teams, and can be pushed off the spot too easily. Brown's post footwork is fairly solid - he can pivot and spin either way, and also has a turnaround jumpshot from there which is arguably his best weapon in that area - yet he is infinitely more comfortable as a face-up big.
When facing up, Brown has a decent handle for a 7'1 centre, but the same problems apply. Not especially fast, he struggles to finish over or through defenders, is too easily bumped off the spot, and is smothered by length. He uses good awareness to flash to open spots, particularly in pick and pop and pick and roll sets, yet his ability to create shots rather trails his ability to make them. Generally avoiding contact, Brown rarely gets to the line, and struggles badly to push through or create separation when pivoting down low. He has finesse, but also a jarring lack of power and toughness, and demonstrates little passing game while also racking up quite high turnover numbers from someone rarely asked to create (often by losing the ball or his footing).
Nevertheless, the jumpshot is a mighty fine weapon. Brown spots up incredibly well, especially from the right wing, and is a constant pick and pop option for the Phoenix. He shoots off screens and sometimes throws in a pull-up, and with his height is an option for a jumper every trip down. It really is a smooth stroke, and while Brown does not maximise the driving opportunities it opens up for him, it is nonetheless a very good weapon. Indeed, he should probably use it even more than he does. Brown also has his uses offensively on the glass, where height alone is enough of a factor to keep the ball alive, although the continued improvements in his jumpshot see him spending more and more time on the perimeter and thus reducing this part of his game.
On defense, the naturally thin Brown has bulked up slightly over the years. He, of course, makes his mark as a weak side and shotblocker, at which he is very effective with great timing. He reads the situation, both on the interior and the perimeter, where he plays better pick and roll defense than most and can disrupt a shooter with his blocking tendencies. The lack of strength is of course a huge obstacle on this end, however, particularly in man to man post defense where he is just cleared out by opponents. Green Bay tried to employ him as the help defender rather than the man defender as much as possible, and rightly so so as to mask these flaws and tailor to his strengths, yet the man who roams the paint still needs to be able to defend in isolation down there, and Brown struggles with it.
More concerning is his defensive rebounding rate, which is poor and getting poorer with each season. It is fair to point out that Brown provides so much help defense that he is often out of position on the glass, which is by design, but it is also fair to point out that he does not attack the glass enough even when he does have position. Brown has reduced his foul problems over the years, but the by-product of that is it has meant just avoiding more and more contact, opening up an even more exploitable hole in the defense. His defensive calling card remains the help, both on the perimeter and the interior.
And yet, warts and all, it works for him. Just as the stats suggested, Brown is a shooter and a roamer, and it is still an enticing combination. There's a lot to do, but also two readily identifiable skills that just are not easy to find, and almost impossible to find in combination with each other. Add one inch to his wingspan and take three inches off his height, and this blurb is also a pretty accurate description of what Channing Frye has become. So Brown has every chance of making the NBA.
Jordan Bachynski, pointing at chests.
Jordan Bachynski, Arizona State, Senior, 7'2 250lbs
2013/14 stats: 30.9 mpg, 11.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 4.0 bpg, 0.5 apg, 0.4 spg, 3.0 fpg, 1.5 TOpg, 54.5% FG, 69.3% FT
The first thing to note is that Bachynski led the country in blocks last season, and he did so while playing in a much improved Pac-12 that was certainly no cakewalk.
The second thing to note is that Bachynski turns 25 in September, after two years away on a Mormon mission and one other year largely missed due to ankle surgery. And while that's not to say that he cannot improve further - if this was true, he wouldn't have improved like he did as a senior - it tempers the upside and the NBA potential he might otherwise have had.
On the face of it, Bachynski could be an NBA player. He has enough length, speed, skill and productivity to perform there in a limited role. Whilst Bachysnki remains quite small for a 7'2 player (if such a thing is not too ridiculous to say) he nevertheless has timing and interior defensive positioning, rim protecting skills that will translate to any level. Bachynski has great shotblocking instincts and the length to go get them, contesting everything around the paint and doing so with an acceptable if improvable foul rate. Physically, Bachynski has a fairly narrow frame that still doesn't have as much muscle on it as it could do, with mediocre to reasonable athleticism and mobility rather than extravagant explosiveness. But 7'2 is 7'2, and 7'2 with a 7'4 wingspan and shot blocking instincts is always to be valued. He also does a better job than most of keeping these blocked shots in bounds, which of course is guaranteed to induce Bill Russell references.
The shotblocking is certainly the crux of his game, which is to be valued. However, everything else has significant concerns. Offensively, Bachysnki creates little in the post, rebounds only mediocrely for a man with a constant size advantage (not having the foot speed to rebound out of his area, and without the strength to always hold position), and is slower trying to move laterally than when running in a straight line. A lot of his weaknesses can be attributed to his toughness, or lack of it - too easily stripped in the post, and too easily outmuscled for a positioning, Bachysnki has to rely on his length to overcome his lack of strength. There's nothing outside of the paint area, almost no jumpshot (although a greatly improved free throw stroke suggests it is still a possibility down the road), and no handle.
That said, Bachysnki is not just a one trick shotblocker of a pony. He works hard to get position, can catch and finish down in the paint, and has developed his footwork and awareness to the point that he has a calmer, more experienced head on him down there. He can throw a slight fake and step under, reposition himself and take his time in reading the defender, finishing with short hook shots with both hands. Indeed, the length often can overcome the strength, and Bachynski's touch, especially with his left hand, is pretty soft.
However, there are still flaws with Bachysnki's offensive game. He has shown little in the way of a passing game, be it from the post facing outwards or the midrange looking in, still lacks for creativity and counter moves, and despite his height can still struggle to finish over or through size when challenged at the rim. This, as can most things in his game, can come back to his strength and his toughness, which are very valid and possibly terminal questions from an NBA point of view. Bachynski just isn't that strong, powerful or fast, and for all his improvement, likely isn't skilled enough to make up for these things.
Even in the new era NBA, a 7'2 centre is valuable, particularly one with sufficient mobility to keep up with the faster game. Bachynski brings the height and shotblocking found so surprisingly rarely on this list, and even if he is not overly effective in the post, he recognises it as the place to be. This counts for something on the court, and it also counts for something in the sentimental minds of the folks whose job it is to make decisions as to who takes those courts. It would be towards the end of the draft, of course, yet Bachynski has shown enough to merit a late second round flier - if he can improve some combination of his strength, jump shot, post play, toughness and rebounding instincts, he could perhaps stick in the NBA for a little while.
On the flip side, even if you felt he could develop into an NBA player, would an underdeveloped 25 year old ever need drafting? If he's only a late second round pick calibre talent, couldn't you use that pick on a long term project and then just sign him afterwards?
Aaric Murray hugging an invisible fat person.
Aaric Murray, Texas Southern, Senior, 6'10 245lbs
2013/14 stats: 32.0 mpg, 21.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.5 bpg, 1.2 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.6 fpg, 2.6 TOpg, 49.1% FG, 74.1% FT, 33.7% 3PT
The oft-travelled Murray wants badly to be a jumpshooter, a stretch five, a new age stretch big. He has wanted this at all three schools he attended, and played accordingly. He burned his way out of two of them due to off-court issues, but ultimately, that is not his biggest problem. Most people have a past. It is the future that we ought be concerned with.
The single biggest knock on Murray is effort, Put simply, there just isn't enough. He loafs on the glass - as evidenced by his rebounding numbers, so unnecessarily mediocre from one so physically superior at his level - and he can only really be seen to be working hard when trying to get himself a touch on offense (and looking dejected if he doesn't get one). Murray won the SWAC Defensive Player of the Year due to his size and shot blocking instincts combination that was unrivalled in the conference, not because he was an incredible or even especially interested defensive player. Murray does not consistently box out, play hard, deny the drive, move his feet enough, rotates quickly, get low enough, or push back onto those fighting him for rebounding or screening position. Essentially, he seems to be interested only in plays that seem to result in statistics. This includes allowing a driver to go past so that he can go for the blocked shot, rather than contest straight up and being content with merely making the shot more difficult. As ever, a shotblocker does not a good defender automatically make.
Offensively, Murray was obliged with a touch on almost every trip at Texas Southern. (Considering the great mismatch he was, why wouldn't he be?) He has good touch around the basket, a quality finisher against smaller opponents who works hard to get position moreso than he works at any part of the game. Defenders are forced to foul Murray because they cannot contain them (Murray averages nine free throw attempts a game), and even when the double and triple teams came, Murray could finish through them or get to the line, from where he is a good shooter. Murray is a powerful player at times and a finesse player at times, a real mismatch who can run the court, finish with power and athleticism, play the pick and pop, drive the ball to the basket with both hands and drop a nice right handed hook shot. Offensively, with his height, speed and decent athleticism, there is a lot to like.
There are of course problems with his offensive game - most notably, neither his jumpshot nor his handle (responsible for many of his turnovers) are as tight and refined as he treats them as being. He could also stand to gain more strength, do more screening off the ball when not getting a touch (and actually make contact with the defender on those he does set), and not look to score with every touch, something he will have to do as the standard of competition and of his teammates improve. Nevertheless, this season, Murray at least demonstrated a willingness to get inside regularly and dominate the paint, reducing if not eradicating the ambitious jumpshot attempts that still somewhat define him.
If Murray still wants to be a jumpshooter, that's fine. But he'll need to get better at them. And his offensive skills do not absolve him of his defensive responsibilities inside the paint. The amount of redemption stories written about him are heartwarming, and may well be true of his knack for off-court dramas, but on the court, Murray must show the same renewed commitment we are told he does off it.
Turning 25 this summer, now is the time. Last year was really the time, but now will do. To be a professional, he'll have to act like it.
Jordan Heath is a jumpshooting big man.
Jordan Heath, Canisius, Senior, 6'10 245lbs
2013/14 stats: 27.6 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.1 bpg, 0.9 apg, 1.0 spg, 3.1 fpg, 1.0 TOpg, 53.4% FG, 48.9% FT, 41.3% 3PT
Similar to the above Aaric Murray, Canisius's Jordan Heath is also a 6'10 shotblocker and shooter. Differing from the above Aaric Murray, Canisius's Jordan Heath is a very good shooter. With almost half of his field goal attempts coming from three point range, Heath hits over 40% of his attempts, a mighty reassuring sign for any potential stretch big. He shoots a high volume and hits a high volume - indeed, the three point jumpshot has been the main part of Heath's offensive game.
Coach Jim Baron wishes it hadn't been. Heath was asked to post up more, not to float about the mid range and perimeter, because that's what history dictates your biggest guy is just supposed to do. Heath occasionally would do so and demonstrate decent touch with his right hand, but with little post footwork, no strong left handed counter moves or the core strength to gain and keep position on the block, it is not something he will ever be a natural at. No, instead, Heath is a stretch big, and an effective one. He spots up, plays the pick and pop, runs the court, and can drive from the arc to the rim if presented with an open opportunity to do so. And he does it all efficiently, the bizarrely poor free throw stroke offset by very comfortably low turnover numbers.
Defensively, the stocks numbers are good, but don't tell the entire story. Heath, put succinctly, is a little soft. His height, length, reasonable athleticism and proclivity for help defense are the source of the numbers and of his effectiveness, but a lack of toughness hampers the rest of his game. Heath has been a deterrent in the paint at the level he has been playing at, a level where 6'10 shotblockers are in short supply and players often avoid going near him, yet he is also a noticeably poor rebounder who does not box out enough. Heath needs to play bigger, tougher and harder, cutting down on the foul rates caused by unhelpful grabs and bumps, knowing when to stay straight and toughening up so as to not be so easy to push off the block. He recovers well when beaten and contests most shots, but also overhelps (perhaps so as to avoid contact) and sometimes rotates completely the wrong way. Heath's length and effort make for an occasionally disruptive defensive presence, but go at him and he is less useful.
Heath, then, needs to play in a certain way to be successful, a certain way that may offend old schoolers and generally stubborn people alike. His efficiency and mismatch potential should overcome the significant flaws in his game, but coaches tend not to look at things like that. Here's hoping for a more progressive sort.
This probably went in.
Sam Dower, Gonzaga, Senior, 6'9 243lbs
2013/14 stats: 27.0 mpg, 14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 0.7 bpg, 1.1 apg, 0.4 spg, 2.4 fpg, 1.6 TOpg, 57.1% FG, 82.5% FT, 31.6% 3PT
He's not the highest scorer on it, but Dower is possibly the smoothest offensive player on this list. He is a finisher, pretty much only a finisher, and yet such a good finisher that this is no pejorative. Every mid-range jumper he takes - and there's a lot of them - feels like it's going in. He seals and finishes in the post, he drops a nice lefty hook, and, given smart guards and a system which can get him the ball in good positions to score, he finishes remarkably well. Leave him uncontested and he'll make the shot. Contest him and he'll probably make it anyway. Foul him, and he's one of the best foul shooting bigs in the game. Even if he only scores when on the court - he is a player with poor rebounding instincts, and little intent to do anything about them - Dower scores so efficiently and consistently that he's worth it anyway. He can drive from the mid range and in, loves a baseline jumper, shotfakes well, and is a consistent half court option, something so few big men are.
He is however a limited scorer, and it need not be the case. On a Gonzaga team that runs more pick and roll plays than most college teams, Dower still never got especially good at his end of the play, despite five years of being in a system built around it. With his fluid if not explosive athleticism, combined with his good strength (as an upperclassman, Dower refined his unconditioned body and replaced fat with muscle), you would think Dower would have gotten quite good at the pick and roll game, or at least been more heavily featured as a pick and pop player taking advantage of his quality jumpshot. It never really happened, however. Nor did developing a right hand or fully adding three point range. And while Dower's strength and 7 foot wingspan translate to some post finishing at the NBA level - as well as his ability to take contact and finish through it, which he started poor at but certainly improved upon - he nevertheless is a rather basic finisher down there. He's going left, then he's going left again, and if you take the away the left hand, there's little chance of him coming back right or passing back out, so that's all you need to do.
Furthermore, for all the positives that come from his affability and easy going nature, Dower is a weak defensive player and a normally poor rebounder who tops out at mediocre. Dower doesn't attack the glass, nor seem interested in it, nor have a great instinct for reading the ball off the rim, and nor does he play tough enough in his post defense. Not a rim protector and a mostly below the rim player, Dower projects poorly as a defender at any level, especially the NBA one, where only incredible toughness and effort can counter the size disadvantage. Sam Dower has never demonstrated those things.
Sam Dower has the style of Sam Perkins, has the body type of Sam Perkins, and has the coolness of Sam Perkins. He even plays like Sam Perkins, especially so if he can bring back that straight away three pointer he briefly flashed as a freshman before locking away. I wish I could say Sam Dower would be the next Sam Perkins, and I wish I could say that he will make the NBA, that he could bring his smooth and effortless scoring game to the highest levels, and go on to have the career of Sam Perkins. Sam Perkins, however, was simply a lot better. So I can't say that about Dower. He's more likely to be the next Ricardo Marsh. But at 6'9 with those scoring instincts, Dower should have a fine career around the globe, just as Marsh has. And that's fine.
Man with basketball watches on as Talib Zanna and Rakeem Christmas visit Jack Rabbit Slims.
Talib Zanna, Pittsburgh, Senior, 6'9 230lbs
2013/14 stats 30.3 mpg, 13.0 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.5 apg, 0.6 spg, 2.6 fpg, 1.5 TOpg, 58.6% FG, 66.7% FT
A bit short for the position, Zanna has a long wingspan and plenty of upper body strength, big enough to play the post position that his skill set is all about. His well toned frame certainly looks the part. And he plays a pretty old school centre's game.
Zanna improved incrementally but consistently over his four seasons, as attested to by his minutes per game and PER. He has rounded into a competent if unspectacular player on both ends of the court, with some power and explosion, a good role player with limitations he understands and plays within. Tough and athletic, Zanna's powerful frame is enticing, and he has added a modicum of ball skills to it over time.
Offensively, Zanna is not hugely skilled, somewhat limited to a limited right handed hook shot and only about 10 feet of slightly elbowy baseline jumpshot range. He does not create offense, for himself nor anyone else on his team - rather, Zanna relies on his activity and athleticism moreso than his skill, a finisher and opportunity scorer to some decent effectiveness. Zanna scores efficient and on very low usage, finding opportunties to finish powerfully by running the court, crashing the offensive glass extremely well and diving to open spots. He does not have the best hands, almost never passes the ball, turns it over rather a lot for someone doing so little of that, and gets few touches offensively, but he is efficient with those he gets, using a shot fake to open up a short drive, finishing with both hands, and occasionally being a pick and roll threat. None of it is especially fluid or eye catching, but it is effective and efficient, all any role player needs. If all else fails in the halfcourt, Zanna will take it wildly at a shotblocker and split a pair of free throws. Not prudent, maybe, but present.
Zanna plays equally hard defensively, to equally mixed effect. His defensive rebounding is not as good as his offensive rebounding, somewhat bizarrely considering his long arms and good effort level on the glass, and he is not much of a rim protector despite his physical tools. Nevertheless, Zanna has reined in his foul rates over the years, mostly by trying not to be a rim protector. He stays down well and now contests without fouling much more frequently.
It will forever hinder Zanna that he is slightly smaller than optimum for the highest levels of basketball. A lack of range and variety in his offense does not help. But Zanna has developed into a quality role player on both ends of the court. He may stand out at no one thing, but not are there any glaring weaknesses. That plus athleticism equals money, and Zanna should do well for himself in Europe.
"I'm mad as hell AND I'M NOT GOING TO TAKE IT ANY MORE!"
Davante Gardner, Marquette, Senior, 6'8 290lbs
2013/14 stats: 26.6 mpg, 14.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 1.3 apg, 0.3 spg, 2.0 fpg, 1.1 TOpg, 52.8% FG, 78.1% FT
Gardner has battled weight and conditioning issues in his entire time with the Golden Eagles. He is every bit the 290lbs he is listed as. Unfortunately, he is also every bit of the 6'8.
Being this zaftig has obvious benefits, particularly on offense. Gardner regularly gets into the paint and finishes with relative ease, a big scorer per minute and an extremely efficient one. With one of the best free throw strokes seen in a big man, Gardner will clatter into the opposing big man and take the contact, strong enough and with deft enough of touch to finish through the hit with either hand. He does so without committing too many turnovers, and uses his feet for step-unders and the like, demostrating good understandings of post finishing and offensive awareness. To complement these things, Gardner also shoots well from mid-range, an important weapon against the long and athletic defenders who can otherwise smother him at the rim. (Davante, it must be noted, does not jump.)
The size, of course, can be a defensive detriment. Gardner's rebounding rate is quite poor as he hasn't the mobility to attack the glass outside of his area, and a lot of the time, his defense involves standing in the paint with his hands up, as he has not the length or leap to protect the rim. He is not a complete stiff and does a better than may be expected job of defending the perimeter on switches, yet it is still something the opposition is always going to want to make him do. Gardner will always struggle to stay in front, often give up a foul in the process, and (perhaps most importantly) it tires him out.
As an upper classman, Gardner did in fact rein in these fouls and improved his stamina somewhat, to the point he is now (some inconsistency notwithstanding) a fairly reliable offensive presence. He can score with relative ease around the basket and kick it out from there to shooters, and while he cannot do much to stop the opponent doing the same, Gardner will score and better an offense wherever he chooses to play. That is all you need to make money. He will likely, however, forever be exposable defensively.
A vexed Chad Posthumus.
Chad Posthumus, Morehead State, Senior, 6'11 265lbs
2013/14 stats: 25.5 mpg, 9.6 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 0.2 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.7 bpg, 3.0 fpg, 1.9 TOpg, 50.7% FG, 60.2% FT
As is obvious from the numbers, Posthumus is a rebounding specialist. As if to reinforce this, here's a quote from his coach, Sean Woods:
"Nothing comes natural to him from a scoring standpoint. The only thing that comes natural is he can go get the basketball."
This is not really what you want to hear about a 23 year old senior, and yet that quote is from a mere few months ago. It speaks to an honest truth - outside of his size and rebounding, everything else about Posthumus's play is underdeveloped.
Nevertheless, Posthumus's size and rebounding are legitimate. Standing at a well built as-near-as-is 7 foot tall, with a 7'3 wingspan, Posthumus looks every bit the part of the NBA centre. His 10.7 rebounds per game tied for seventh in the country with Ryan Watkins of Boise State (see below), and his 4.1 offensive rebounds per game were third behind only Watkins and Jarnell Stokes. Posthumus put up this totals in only 25.5 minutes per contest - his 16.6 rebounds per 40 minutes was second in the country behind only Ryan Canty of Fordham (who averaged 3.0 points and 6.2 rebounds in 15 minutes a game), and was third behind only Canty and Hofstra's Stephen Nwaukoni in rebounds per 40 minutes when pace adjusted. You can quite comfortably say, then, that Posthumus was the best rebounder in the country. And with his size and frame that stacks up to any league in the world, this will likely stay true where he goes as a pro.
Posthumus plays hard and is a tireless worker on the glass. With a big wide frame, Posthumus is always fighting for rebounding positioning, and boxing out persistently if not always legally. This of course leads to high foul rates and a jarring numbers of turnovers for one so unskilled offensively (recording 43 of them in the first 16 games of this season) - Posthumus is always active, which means he is always fouling, committing over the back fouls, shoving, reaching in where he shouldn't be and hitting all shooters and drivers (not always particularly impactfully either). Nevertheless, the activity, size and strength are what make him the rebounder he is. It is a mostly effective means of play, if not for very long. Fouling is a virtue, up to a point.
However, everything outside of the rebounding and fouling is to be questioned. Recording 7 assists alongside 66 turnovers all season is a pretty lamentable start to this list of concerns, but it goes much further than that. Much as he calls for the ball in the post, Posthumus is a very limited offensive player, finishing in the paint when he is uncontested or has a significant size advantage but a creator of very little offense in the post, and absolutely none outside of it. Posthumus is an efficient finisher, but it is not on difficult shots. There is no jumpshot, a poor free throw stroke (the form isn't actually that bad, save for a little snatching motion, yet it just does not go in), and he leaves the paint only to screen. Posthumus has his uses on offensively as a screener, as a target, as a collector of fouls on the defense and (mostly) as an offensive rebounder, but his individual scoring ability is very limited, and his passing game even more so. He also struggles badly with a double team, although leaving the Ohio Valley Conference is probably putting an end to his double teaming days anyway.
Defensively, Posthumus's size, strength and competitiveness are once again a virtue. He picks up some blocks, both on his man and on help defense (although he can sometimes be found forgoing challenging a shot in favour of getting rebounding position earlier), and as ever he wins possessions for his team. Here, though, his lack of speed is a bigger concern. Slow to rotate, Posthumus picks up fouls by putting his paws on players rather than beating them to the spot, does not like to come out to defend the perimeter, and is not effective when he does. The work rate is there, but the foot speed is not, and the instincts are not much more advanced than the offensive ones.
On the few occasions he played against better quality opposition, Posthumus has had mixed results. Against the aforementioned Stokes, Posthumus fouled out in 26 minutes with only 4 points and 5 rebounds, and despite a 21 point 18 rebound performance against a UCLA team with good size and a steady 12/12 against Matt Stainbrook and Xavier, three sub-par outings in a year against a small but disciplined Belmont team that should have had no matchup for him attest to how Posthumus's size is his only major asset right now. He dominated smaller competition, putting up 20 points in 20 rebounds against NAIA school Asbury, yet dropped off notably in conference play.
Posthumus, then, remains highly untested and unproven, and will have to work his way up through the professional ranks, adding to his game as he goes. He looks like Aaron Gray with the eye test, and plays like Franko Kastropil, but he might have to settle for less than both unless his skill level makes noteworthy improvements. The size, the rebounding, the recognition of his limitations and the tireless work ethic are nice. Now he needs more.
Spontaneous Superman impression.
Daniel Miller, Georgia Tech, Senior, 6'11 275lbs
2013/14 stats: 30.8mpg, 10.9 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.4 bpg, 1.5 apg, 1.2 spg, 2.5 fpg, 1.5 TOpg, 57.8% FG, 61.6% FT
Miller has an intriguing mix of size and finesse. Plenty big enough for the centre spot and with a decent wingspan, Miller is a disciplined player who plays within his limits, who plays smart and efficiently, and who contributes on both ends of the court.
On the offensive end, Miller makes useful work of a turnaround jumpshot on which he has a deft touch despite fading heavily sideways. He shoots from the mid range and no further, and inexplicably has a poor free throw stroke that does not readily reconcile with this, yet the mid-range jumpshot is nice and not easily found in one so big. Miller is a finisher, not a creator - he needs everything setting up for him, be it a J or a shot from the paint, as he has little handle and post-up creativity. Nonetheless, Miller can catch and finish down low with good hands and good touch, passes well from down there, utilises a little spin move to get closer, and he is also more than willing to run the court.
Decently athletic, Miller is a rim protector with a nice leap and good timing, and also defends the perimeter well for one so big, demonstrating good footwork and not getting himself crossed up. He occasionally gives up on closeouts, yet he is for the most part a disciplined defender who anticipates well and competes, especially strong in man to man defense. He has not the most toned physique, carrying a little meat on the bones, but centres ought be allowed that when their job is to give and take contact. Miller's lateral quickness does not match his leap and straight line speed, and he is a fairly poor rebounder for his size, but the rim protection makes up for a lot of this and is certainly the most important and impactful part of his defensive game.
Miller's main problem is that he excels in no one facet of the game. Perhaps best as a shotblocker, he is nonetheless a mediocre rebounder, which offsets this ideal of post purist somewhat. The jumpshot is nice but not brilliant, and as mentioned above, his offense is opportunistic. Regardless of this, however, he has been a nice role player for Georgia Tech and he will go on to be a nice role player wherever he goes. Not everyone needs to star. Some just don't work like that.
Omar Oraby, scared of his own jumpshot.
Omar Oraby, USC, Senior, 7'2 270lbs
2013/14 stats: 22.7 mpg, 8.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 0.4 apg, 0.2 spg, 3.3 fpg, 1.5 TOpg, 57.7% FG, 65.8% FT
The tallest player on the list, Oraby is also one of the best shotblockers, and also one of the biggest projects.
Self-evidently rather massive, Oraby sticks to the classic big man template of being a rim protector, rebounder and shotblocker. Slow laterally and with very little leap, Oraby nonetheless stands in the paint and protects the rim just by being in the way of it. As slow as he is, and as difficult as it is for him to get from one place to another - the foul rates are high and are born out of how exposable his lack of mobility is - Oraby is a wall if he happens to be in the right place, and he will contest everything he can on the interior. On the down side, Oraby entirely hangs back in the paint, not bothering to close out on the perimeter knowing that he cannot get there anyway, and being of more use hanging back for the rebound. In ball screen action, then, he is a liability. And should he come out to contest, just run into his hip and he'll get called for the foul.
Oraby benefitted from USC being as poor as they were by getting an increased level of usage on the offensive end. Usage, though, is not effectiveness. Employed as a screener and finisher, Oraby excelled at neither, nor indeed in any facet of the offensive end. Without a strong frame, Oraby struggles to seal off his man and finish on the interior - he can be pushed off of position on the inside, and although he is always a target for a pass over the top of the defense, he brings the ball down too often and is too easily stripped. He also rarely creates in the post, limited to a fairly rudimentary right handed hook shot off two bounces, looking panicked and rushed in post-up situations and with no counter moves or ability to fight through the contact. Endlessly screening when away from the basket, Oraby does not drive, shoot from range, roll to the basket or indeed handle the ball at all - a poor passer and poor shooter, he is a turnover threat when under any sort of pressure. He scored the points that he did because someone from USC had to try, and Oraby, as the one with the height, was the option. He will make a few shots from around the basket should he get an open look, and very occasionally a jumpshot with reasonable enough form, yet there is a lot of offensive work still to do.
Nevertheless, 7'2 is 7'2. And 7'2 is a defensive deterrent even without much in the way of core strength. Oraby will turn 23 before the start of next season and still looks as though so much of the game is new to him, yet the height is a valuable skill. As long as they don't mind the frustrations that come with his fouls, his turnovers, and his constantly bringing the ball down, someone has themselves a project to work with. Which is good, in a way.
Baye can't catch, but he makes it difficult for the other guy to catch, too.
Baye Moussa-Keita, Syracuse, Senior, 6'10 220lbs
2013/14 stats: 15.5mpg, 1.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.9 bpg, 0.3 apg, 0.4 spg, 2.4 fpg, 0.8 TOpg, 50.0% FG, 55.6% FT
The startled looking man above is Baye Moussa-Keita, and he averaged 1.8 points in only 15.5 minutes per game. It is self-evident then that he contributes nothing offensively. And it is really is pretty much nothing. BMK cannot create in the post, finish in the post, drive at all, shoot, get to the foul line, score from there even when he does, pass with any aplomb or even catch the ball in traffic - even one handed dunks can be a fraught moment. What little touches he does get are off of offensive rebounds, and even at point blank range, he will often times still pass the ball back out. It is frustrating, especially the bad catching, as his physical profile would suggest he could be an effective pick and roll scorer in the Boniface N'Dong style were he actually able to catch the ball when it was thrown at him. Alas, he is not, and thus Keita's sole offensive purpose is to offensively rebound.
However, Keita is very good at that, grabbing more offensive rebounds than he does defensive ones. Rail thin but athletic, with very long and very thin arms, Keita is active on the glass and can get above defenders to tip the ball and keep it alive. This does not work as well on the defensive glass, where his lack of strength sees him pushed out of position, but it does at least give him a purpose offensively. And while the lack of strength is a problem on both the defensive glass and man to man post defenders, Keita is nevertheless a pest in the middle of the zone, who anticipates and reads well, and uses those same long thin arms to disturb anyone in his way. He is one of the most useful 1.5 points per game players around.
Baye Moussa-Keita never really developed at Syracuse. He arrived as a rail thin raw defensive pest who had big holes in his skillset and made many frustrating errors, and he left four years later as the same player with maybe slightly fewer errors. Nevertheless, being so long, mobile and disruptive is a skill that will always be at a premium. Perhaps he could run some pick and roll on a team that actually employs it into their playbook. And even if Keita was only ever a limited minutes role player at Syracuse, he can still be a limited minutes role player as a professional, too. It is still a tough role to come by.
Fundamental part of rebounding - looking the right way. Poor technique, Tom Herzog.
Tarik Black, Kansas, Senior, 6'9 260lbs
2013/14 stats: 13.5 mpg, 5.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.3 apg, 0.3 spg, 2.8 fpg, 0.7 TOpg, 69.2% FG, 60.0% FT
Slightly undersized height wise for the position, Black has added a ton of muscle to his frame and has a 7'3 wingspan, looking very much like the post player that he is. He is however more of a physical specimen than overly skilled player.
In his three years at Memphis, Black was frustratingly inconsistent in both results and effort, and frustratingly foul prone. The latter one never changed - Black fouls EVERYBODY, through clattering into the defender wildly on the offensive end, hitting every driver who comes his way on defense, and shoving everybody who seeks to get position on him at any time. Nevertheless, he improved at the first two things in his time at Kansas, and became an effective backup off the bench. He was no replacement for Embiid, obviously, yet he would have an impact on the game in his limited minutes and use his physicality on both ends.
Black's exceedingly efficient offensive game comes from his power, explosion and athleticism. He is a finisher not a creator, but he's a rugged one who will take it at anyone, clumsy or not, and is strong enough to go through them. Rarely asked to create, Black nevertheless has the motor and position awareness to get open off the ball, as well as the tenacity to fight for position. He will also run the court well for his size, always pursuing the ball if not always receiving it, and has improved his footwork to finish in the post with reverses and step throughs.
On both ends, though, Black's is a rather limited game. Offensively, Black does not handle, take any shot outside of about two feet, pass, drive, defend the perimeter or do much outside of what is availed to him by his physical tools. He is very rarely asked to create in the post and is very predictable when heh does - it is not team needs that restrict him to being a finisher rather than hi