By Jeff Dorsch, Contributing Editor
The microelectromechanical system (MEMS) devices and sensors market is evolving as demand for low-power connected devices continues to rise. The Internet of Things has MEMS/sensors vendors somewhat giddy about growth prospects, yet veteran executives realize the victories will go to the suppliers with the lowest cost of manufacturing and the best prices.
A rising tide lifts all boats, the saying goes. Still, not all segments in MEMS and sensors are enjoying hockey-stick growth forecasts, as commoditization and pricing pressures take hold.
These were among the insights gleaned at last week’s MEMS Executive Congress US 2015 at The Meritage Resort and Spa in Napa, Calif. The need for integration between MEMS and sensors led the conference’s organizer, the MEMS Industry Group, to formally change its name to the MEMS & Sensors Industry Group.
Jérémie Bouchaud, IHS Technology’s senior director of MEMS and sensors, presented Wednesday afternoon (November 4) on “The Ups and Downs of the MEMS and Sensor Market.” He predicted the market would enjoy a compound annual growth rate of 7.6 percent through 2019, reaching nearly $14 billion in annual sales by the end of the decade.
Consumer electronics and mobile applications will see a 13.4 percent CAGR into 2019, Bouchaud said, while medical electronics and wired communications will also experience double-digit growth in the next few years.
The forecast is rosy for bulk acoustic wave (BAW) devices and MEMS microphones, according to Bouchaud, while accelerometers and gyroscopes will show flat sales. The new iPhone 6s has 22 BAW filter dies and four microphones, he noted.
Avago Technologies and Qorvo are battling it out for BAW market share, the IHS analyst said, while Fujitsu Microelectronics and Skyworks Solutions could get into the mix. Foundries, such as Dongbu HiTek, may find a toehold in making BAW filter die, he added.
MEMS microphones keep adding features and improvements in performance, keeping those parts from price erosion, Bouchaud said. “The market is asking for more advanced microphones,” he noted.
MEMS scanners are enjoying an industry comeback, according to Bouchaud. STMicroelectronics is shipping MEMS scanners to Intel for the RealSense 3D cameras going into laptop computers, he said.
The bad news is the saturation of motion and pressure sensors for consumer and mobile applications. “It’s declining faster than forecast a year ago,” Bouchaud told the conference attendees. The slowdown of the Chinese economy is among the factors in that trend.
This is affecting Bosch, the leading supplier of MEMS, along with STMicroelectronics, Knowles, and Kionix, according to Bouchaud.
The Volkswagen “Dieselgate” scandal is likely to have a positive effect for sensor suppliers, with “more sensor sales as a result,” Bouchaud said. VW has announced it will adopt selective catalytic reduction technology for the diesel engines it sells in Europe and the U.S., he noted.
Automotive MEMS are becoming more like consumer devices, Bouchaud said, a trend confirmed last month when InvenSense announced it will enter the auto sensor market.
Bouchaud was followed Wednesday afternoon by Jean-Christophe Eloy, president and CEO of Yole Développement. Pricing erosion in MEMS and sensors began five years ago, he said,
“MEMS is becoming a 10-cents business, a couple of million times a day,” Eloy observed.
Consumer MEMS took over from automotive MEMS as the application leader in 2008 and maintains the title to this day, with consumer MEMS accounting for $6.43 billion in worldwide sales this year, compared with $3.39 billion for auto MEMS, Yole estimates. The market research firm forecasts a 12.3 percent CAGR for consumer applications into 2020, with auto seeing 10 percent growth. Medical electronics will post a CAGR of 11 percent in the upcoming years and industrial applications will grow by 10.8 percent.
In 2014, the total MEMS market was about $11 billion in sales, with the top-five vendors accounting for $3.8 billion, and Bosch leading with $1.3 billion, Eloy said.
Software is becoming a more crucial consideration in MEMS, he added, similar to what has happened in CMOS image sensors, which go into the cameras of smartphones and other mobile devices. The MEMS market is “like the semiconductor industry five years ago,” Eloy said.
“MEMS is growing as a market, both in volume and in total value,” Eloy concluded. “Value is moving from devices to functions.”
Wrapping up Wednesday was Jeffrey Owens, executive vice president and chief technology officer of Delphi Automotive
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Speaking about the future of mobility, Owens said, “Automotive is becoming great again.” Electronics has the potential to reduce or eliminate fatalities in auto accidents, improve gasoline mileage to 100 miles per gallon, and achieve zero emissions from internal combustion engines, he said. “All are within reach,” Owens asserted.
“The future is safe, green, connected,” he said. “Automated driving is the real emerging sweet spot.”
Owens recounted how Delphi equipped an autonomous vehicle with 3 terabytes of data in preparation for traveling across the U.S., covering 3,400 miles in nine days, traversing 15 states. A human driver had to intervene and take over manual control of the vehicle only 1 percent of the time, to deal with construction zones and other road conditions, he said.
The trip was “the first time someone drove from coast to coast at the speed limit,” Owens said, to the delight of the conference attendees. The hostile reactions of other drivers to this grew more intense as the vehicle approached Philadelphia and New York City, he added.
“Safe, sustainable mobility is achievable,” Owens concluded.