Last weekend, the Oscar Season started in earnest with the release of Gone Girl, the studios’ first big shot at a multi-statue picture.
Yes, there have been a few films already released this year (Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel) that have eyes on Oscar night, but those were exceptions to their release date rules. Gone Girl is the unofficial signal to studios, indies and distributors to start the flood of prestige pictures into theaters with at least two dozen coming in the next couple months that look to litter ballots with their actors, directors and writers.
This year’s race is shaping up as a very odd mixture with historical character studies and auteur-driven films leading the way and no big epic a la 12 Years a Slave or Gravity anywhere in sight this year. It should be a very fun next few months and while many of the films listed below are still question marks, we need a starting point and this week marks this year’s most logical.
As always, keep in mind these potential nominees are listed in order of likelihood of being nominated with no attention paid whatsoever to who may ultimately win.
BEST ACTOR
1 – Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
2 – Steve Carrell in Foxcatcher
3 – Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything
4 – Michael Keaton in Birdman
5 – Bill Murray in St. Vincent
6 – Bradley Cooper in American Sniper
7 – Timothy Spall in Mr. Turner
8 – Joaquin Phoenix in Inherent Vice
9 – David Oyelowo in Selma
10 – Jack O’Connell in Unbroken
It’s never really too early to declare a lock no matter how silly that may seem with four months left until the nominations are announced and nary a precursor has weighed in, but Cumberbatch is a lock here. Buzz for The Imitation Game is overwhelming and he’s got The Weinstein Company backing him. This very well-respected actor is a sure thing for his first Oscar Nomination this year.
Beyond Cumberbactch, the category is pretty deep. Oyelowo is set to give the most high-profile depiction of Martin Luther King, Jr. ever devoted to film and he’s down near the bottom alongside Jack O’Connell playing another real-life figure in buzzed-about Unbroken. That’s a quick microcosm of how long the contender list for Best Actor will run this year.
2-8 offers very little separation among the contenders. Carrell seemed like a shoo-in to win Best Supporting Actor for Foxcatcher until he switched to lead, but he’s still a very strong contender here. Redmayne is getting wild praise on the festival circuit for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking and Keaton’s meta-performance in Birdman will be very hard to ignore.
Cooper and Phoenix are sort of unknowns in two very different movies from very different directors. If either of them hit as hard as they’re expected, their actors will easily climb this chart. Spall is leading a very well-received Mike Leigh film, but it’s still going to be very small and will need absolute raves to really catch on with voters.
That leaves Murray. He’s actually more a longshot than his positioning on this list, but I like backing a longshot right now. Plus, I’ve had him my predicted winner of this category since this winter and I’m not going to back off until it’s absolutely necessary, and with the early reviews being mostly positive for this film, I’m going to hold on awhile longer.
BEST ACTRESS
1 – Amy Adams in Big Eyes
2 – Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything
3 – Reese Witherspoon in Wild
4 – Jennifer Aniston in Cake
5 – Julianne Moore in Still Alice
6 – Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year
7 – Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl
8 – Hilary Swank in The Homesman
9 – Anne Hathaway in Interstellar
10 – Shailene Woodley in The Fault in Our Stars
While the Best Actor race is extraordinarily deep, Best Actress is much more of a mystery. Mostly because we’re dealing with a rash of unseen films and festival buzz as the majority of these movies will come out at the end of the year.
One film everybody has seen is Gone Girl. Pike’s performance is definitely one to make Oscar take notice and the film’s box office hints at longevity for the film’s buzz, but I just don’t have her in quite yet.
Of course, what she has in front of her is a bit of black box. Amy Adams hasn’t won yet and her role in Big Eyes is supposed to be one of her best yet. This Oscar is looking like a near-cinch here. Jones is just as beloved as her co-star based on early buzz for the Hawking film and that is looking like a classic case of romantic co-leads both taking down nominations.
Beyond the top two, the predicted five (and alternate sixth) round out with a quartet of high-profile actresses in little-seen indies. Aniston is the biggest wildcard here as her film doesn’t even have a distributor yet and may not end up eligible for this season. However, her performance was the talk of Toronto and may just squeak in with a qualifying run at the wire.
Two more wildcards sit at the bottom of this list in Hathaway and Woodley. Nobody’s seen Interstellar yet, so it’s unclear how bait-y Hathaway’s performance will be, and Woodley’s YA-adaptation performance isn’t exactly in Oscar’s wheelhouse, but maybe they actually look beyond the prestige pics and into a big box office success that crowds loved.
Not likely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1 – J.K. Simmons in Whiplash
2 – Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher
3 – Edward Norton in Birdman
4 – Domhnall Gleeson in Unbroken
5 – Josh Brolin in Inherent Vice
6 – Ethan Hawke in Boyhood
7 – Tim Roth in Selma
8 – Tom Wilkinson in Selma
9 – Takamasa Ishiara in Unbroken
10 – Albert Brooks in A Most Violent Year
Simmons’ performance absolutely blew away audiences at Sundance and if he’s half as compelling as the trailer makes him look in this film then he’s already a dead solid lock for a nomination. It’s all just a matter of if this small film finds enough of an audience for Simmons to become a real Oscar force.
Ruffalo is another strong contender playing ex-Olympic Wrestler xxx in Foxcatcher. With both of his co-stars Channing Tatum and Carrel going lead for the film, he won’t have to worry about vote splitting and should see himself invited to the podium.
Beyond the top two, it gets a little murky. Norton seems like a cinch for Birdman, but nobody’s quite sure how well this weird film will be received among critics and Keaton may gobble up all the buzz. Hawke is interesting for Boyhood, though that film is seen as more of a director’s achievement than an actor’s. The same may end up being said for Brolin’s work in Inherent Vice.
That leaves a host of people playing real people for the remaining nominees. Gleeson and Ishiara take on more obscure real-life figures in Unbroken who are integral to the story nonetheless, while Roth and Wilkinson take on George Wallace and Lyndon Johnson, respectively.
In the end, I like up-and-comer Gleeson to break out of the real-life bunch in a film that seems set to overwhelm voters when debuts near the end of the year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1 – Meryl Streep in Into the Woods
2 – Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game
3 – Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
4 – Vanessa Redgrave in Foxcatcher
5 – Carmen Ejogo in Selma
6 – Naomi Watts in St. Vincent
7 – Emma Stone in Birdman
8 – Laura Dern in Wild
9 – Katherine Waterston in Inherent Vice
10 – Melissa McCarthy in St. Vincent
Look, everybody! Meryl Streep is going full-on villainess as The Witch in Into the Woods! It’s just impossible for her to miss with a role like that. She’s a lock. It’s that easy for her.
Knightley has that aforementioned Imitation Game buzz going for her and the full backing of the Weinstein Co., so she’ll be hard-pressed to miss her second nomination here. Arquette got most of the acting raves for Boyhood and appears to be a logical choice for voters to look at if they want to honor that film’s actors.
The top three are pretty solid, but beyond that it’s a pure guessing game. Redgrave gets the nod because she’s a legend and Ejogo rounds out the top five due to her playing a legendary historical figure in Coretta Scott King, but their holds are pretty thin on their spots. If it weren’t for the fact that it’s a pretty messy hodgepodge below them, I might bump somebody up, but right now there just isn’t anybody else compelling.
BEST DIRECTOR
1 – Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman
2 – Angelina Jolie for Unbroken
3 – Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game
4 – Paul Thomas Anderson for Inherent Vice
5 – Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher
6 – Richard Linklater for Boyhood
7 – Clint Eastwood for American Sniper
8 – Christopher Nolan for Interstellar
9 – James Marsh - The Theory of Everything
10 – David Fincher - Gone Girl
Birdman is looking like this year’s gravity. Not because it’s a space-set, effects-heavy sci-fi pic, but because it has the “director’s vision” lane all sewn up. The film is a near-one-shot trick that it wholly unique and technically in its own class. Films like that tend to get nominated here and this won’t be any different.
With a lineup of heavy hitters on the bottom side of the list, two and three on the list may seem a bit of a surprise, but they shouldn’t be. Tyldum is making his English-language debut with The Imitation Game, but, as mentioned several times previously, this is a Weinstein Picture revved up to take down a host of nominations. Unbroken is only Jolie’s second picture, but it’s based on a story made for awards and the Academy has a long history of adulation for actors who direct. I like them both a lot, even if their competition is of a much higher pedigree.
Yes, Beyond the top three, everybody’s been nominated for at least one Oscar, though a few (including Christopher Nolan!) are looking for their first nomination in this category. I put Anderson and Miller at the top of that list for now, due to their films’ statuses as “director’s movies” more than the others, but this is a deep list with a lot of high-profile names on it.
BEST PICTURE
1 - The Imitation Game
2 - Unbroken
3 - Boyhood
4 - Foxcatcher
5 - The Theory of Everything
6 - Birdman
7 - Inherent Vice
8 - American Sniper
9 - Gone Girl
10 - Interstellar
11 - Selma
12 - Into The Woods
13 - The Grand Budapest Hotel
14 - Wild
15 - Whiplash
The Imitation Game tops yet another list for all of the same reasons its actors and director have been at or near the top of theirs: The Weinsteins. These Oscar titans haven’t had a film this hot in quite some time and there isn’t much chance of their not scoring a Best Picture nomination with it this year.
Other very hot films, Foxcatcher, The Theory of Everything, and Unbroken, look like very sure things at this point as well. The latter two have been dominating the festival circuit and Unbroken is just a perfect Oscar film.
Imperfect Oscar films start at six. Birdman is very weird, Inherent Vice is possibly weirder, Interstellar weirder still and Gone Girl is a bit too much of a mainstream thriller to really feel like an Oscar picture. Then there’s American Sniper, Clint Eastwood’s Christmas release that’s said to be spectacular but nobody’s seen it yet.
Yes, it’s very early in Oscar Power Rankings land, but we have to start somewhere. And with that, this year’s race is underway.
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