Colorado State is recruiting well and heading into a new, on-campus stadium in 2017.
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
1. Taking a big swing
Hughes Stadium's days are numbered. Picturesque and isolated, it has served as the off-campus home of Colorado State football since 1968, when it replaced a tiny, on-campus facility called Colorado Field.
Its 49th season will be its last. The Rams are scheduled to move into a new, large stadium in the southern portion of campus in 2017. Construction is ongoing.
The short version
(Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)
2016 projected wins: 5.7
Projected S&P+ ranking: 96 (8 in Mountain West)
5-year recruiting ranking: 86 (4 in Mountain West)
Biggest strength: Assuming a potentially iffy passing game doesn't get in the way, the running game will be one of the conference's best.
Biggest question mark: The defensive line features a scary lack of depth.
Biggest 2016 game: Utah State (Oct. 8). A win would put CSU at 4-2 or 5-1 and all but lock up a bowl bid. A fourth loss in five tries against the Aggies might make .500 dicey.
Summary: Colorado State is recruiting well and heading into a new, on-campus stadium in 2017. The Rams seem invested in a happy future, but 2016 might be a transition year of sorts thanks to inexperience in the receiving corps and on the defensive line.
Hughes Stadium is a symbol of Colorado State's past. The Rams have long been a sturdy mid-major program, attending 14 bowls in 26 years and finishing in the AP top 20 three times between 1994-00. But the program grew stale in the 2000s, finishing above .500 only once between 2004-12. In 2013, serious discussions for a new stadium -- a $200 million breath of life, basically -- began.
We can debate whether a project like this is ever really worth it. While on-campus stadiums are easier for students to access (and could therefore generate more of an active, vocal crowd), $200 million is a lot to spend on a bigger stadium before you can actually prove you can fill it. And with CSU likely stuck in the Mountain West for the far foreseeable future, it will probably take a while for the new stadium to truly pay off.
Regardless, the tentatively named Colorado State Stadium is a clear sign of investment, and it is a signal of the future Colorado State wants. Like so many other programs, the Rams would probably love a shot at entry into the Big 12, but they do not appear to be top candidates at the moment. Still, they appear more than interested in attempting to compete with conference heavyweight Boise State in the program-building department.
That the erection of the stadium has coincided with an actual rebuild of the team makes that vision a little clearer and, seemingly, more realistic. Under Jim McElwain, the Rams went 18-9 in 2013-14 and enjoyed their first 10-win season in 13 years. When McElwain took the Florida job, they replaced him with another successful SEC offensive coordinator, Georgia's Mike Bobo.
In 2015, CSU took a step backwards, but not a significant one. After a 2-4 start to the season, Bobo's Rams whipped eventual MWC Mountain champion Air Force, lost to San Diego State, then won four games in a row to finish the regular season 7-5. They finished with a tough, lucky win over Fresno State and a bowl loss to Nevada, but they sustained enough of McElwain's gains to attend a third straight bowl game.
Meanwhile, Bobo was putting together CSU's best recruiting class in a long time. Per the 247Sports Composite, CSU's February class ranked second in the MWC and 70th overall. It was the Rams' best class since 2011; over the previous four recruiting cycles, even while building a solid program, CSU's average class rankings were eighth in the MWC and 103rd overall.
Bobo signed 17 three-star recruits and added a load of junior college transfers to account for turnover at receiver and in the secondary. His receiving corps and defensive line will still be as green as their uniforms this fall, but with as few as two to three senior starters on offense and four to five on defense, the Rams that enter Colorado State Stadium against Abilene Christian on September 9, 2017, will be seasoned and, potentially, quite strong.
2016 is basically an interim year before Colorado State's future begins in 2017. With eight opponents projected 80th or worse in S&P+, the Rams will have a solid chance of reaching the postseason for the fourth straight year, but since they're projected at only 96th themselves, that's not a given. But recruiting is looking good, and the depth chart is young.
2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 7-6 | Adj. Record: 5-8 | Final F/+ Rk: 86 | Final S&P+ Rk: 81
Date
Opponent
Opp. F/+ Rk
Score
W-L
Percentile
Performance
Win
Expectancy
vs. S&P+
Performance
vs. Vegas
5-Sep
Savannah State
N/A
65-13
W
93%
100%
+25.6
12-Sep
Minnesota
55
20-23
L
44%
60%
-1.3
+3.0
19-Sep
vs. Colorado
94
24-27
L
35%
53%
-9.7
0.0
26-Sep
at UTSA
111
33-31
W
22%
32%
-9.3
-7.0
3-Oct
at Utah State
53
18-33
L
12%
3%
-16.0
-10.5
10-Oct
Boise State
37
10-41
L
4%
0%
-20.8
-15.5
17-Oct
Air Force
63
38-23
W
87%
99%
+20.3
+18.0
31-Oct
San Diego State
43
17-41
L
34%
16%
-20.8
-20.5
7-Nov
at Wyoming
115
26-7
W
86%
100%
+9.4
+7.5
14-Nov
UNLV
105
49-35
W
69%
98%
+0.9
+6.5
21-Nov
at New Mexico
99
28-21
W
65%
92%
-1.3
+5.0
28-Nov
at Fresno State
103
34-31
W
14%
16%
-7.4
-6.5
29-Dec
vs. Nevada
97
23-28
L
39%
55%
-13.1
-8.0
Category
Offense
Rk
Defense
Rk
S&P+
29.5
60
31.6
88
Points Per Game
29.6
62
27.2
64
2. Clear improvement (in spurts)
Colorado State spent a good portion of 2015 losing games it should have won and winning games it should have lost. Win Expectancy tosses all of the key stats from a given game into the air and says, "With these stats, you would have won this game X percent of the time." CSU's win expectancy against Minnesota was 60 percent, and the Rams lost, 23-20. It was 53 percent in a 27-24 loss to Colorado. And in the bowl loss to Nevada, it was 55 percent.
Meanwhile, win expectancy was just 32 percent in the two-point win over UTSA and a paltry 16 percent in the win over Fresno. That's a lot of contrary results, though in the end, the actual win total of seven was about right.
After a romp over ratings skewer Savannah State in the season opener, CSU trailed off quickly. The tight losses to Minnesota and Colorado were followed by increasingly disappointing performances against UTSA, Utah State, and Boise State. But there was clear growth over the second half of the year.
Average Percentile Performance (games 2-6): 23% (~top 100) | Average score: Opp 31, CSU 21
Average Percentile Performance (games 7-13): 56% (~top 55) | Average score: CSU 32, Opp 26
The offense took a clear step forward with the emergence of freshman running back Izzy Matthews. During the first seven games, he rushed just 24 times for 104 yards (4.3 per carry), but in the final six he rushed 73 times for 486 (6.7). Along with the steady production of Dalyn Dawkins, that helped CSU to improve from 164 rushing yards per game through eight to 251 over the final five.
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
Raw Category
Rk
Opp. Adj. Category
Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS
IsoPPP
1.20
96
IsoPPP+
102.5
57
EFFICIENCY
Succ. Rt.
47.1%
17
Succ. Rt. +
112.0
25
FIELD POSITION
Def. Avg. FP
27.4
21
Def. FP+
28.3
43
FINISHING DRIVES
Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity
4.2
88
Redzone S&P+
110.5
34
TURNOVERS
EXPECTED
25.2
ACTUAL
27
+1.8
Category
Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk
Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL
47
43
25
57
RUSHING
33
40
17
63
PASSING
61
50
45
58
Standard Downs
40
25
50
Passing Downs
69
32
83
Q1 Rk
38
1st Down Rk
55
Q2 Rk
73
2nd Down Rk
47
Q3 Rk
42
3rd Down Rk
69
Q4 Rk
45
3. Pragmatism!
By the end of his tenure as Georgia's offensive coordinator, Bobo was one of the best play-callers in the business. He was pragmatic and logical, and while "Fire Bobo!" was an ongoing Internet meme, it became more of a parody as time went on. Georgia established the run, baited defenses into overcommitting, then hit them with a devastating mix of screens and vertical passing. And when the run game wasn't quite as effective, he was able to isolate receivers and defenders and create relatively easy passes on passing downs.
Bobo brought a familiar face with him to Fort Collins. His first offensive coordinator was Georgia's former offensive line coach, Will Friend.
While it took a little while, by the end of the season Bobo and Friend had figured some things out. CSU finished 25th in Success Rate+ and 17th in Rushing Success Rate+, and while big plays were a bit of an issue -- the Rams had 63 gains of 20-plus yards, 53rd in FBS -- CSU's offense was actually more efficient than Georgia's.
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Comp
Att
Yards
TD
INT
Comp
Rate
Sacks
Sack Rate
Yards/
Att.
Nick Stevens
6'3, 205
Jr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.8356
211
347
2679
21
12
60.8%
15
4.1%
7.1
Coleman Key
21
44
251
3
3
47.7%
2
4.3%
5.1
Faton Bauta
6'2, 220
Sr.
3 stars (5.7)
0.8799
15
33
154
0
4
45.5%
1
2.9%
4.4
J.C. Robles
6'5, 200
RSFr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.8036
Collin Hill
6'5, 225
Fr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8497
Running Back
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Rushes
Yards
TD
Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
Fum.
Lost
Dalyn Dawkins
RB
5'9, 175
Jr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8375
170
867
2
5.1
4.3
43.5%
5
5
Jasen Oden, Jr.
RB
154
746
6
4.8
4.1
34.4%
2
2
Izzy Matthews
RB
6'0, 215
So.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8174
97
590
5
6.1
5.6
46.4%
0
0
Nick Stevens
QB
6'3, 205
Jr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.8356
30
128
3
4.3
2.6
46.7%
4
2
Deionte Gaines
WR
5'8, 180
Jr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8449
12
138
2
11.5
6.8
83.3%
2
0
Craig Leonard
QB
9
43
0
4.8
1.6
55.6%
0
0
Deron Thompson
RB
7
49
0
7.0
5.1
57.1%
0
0
Treyous Jarrells
RB
7
28
0
4.0
6.5
14.3%
0
0
Nu'uvali Fa'apito
FB
4
4
2
1.0
0.0
0.0%
0
0
Danny Nwosu
FB
6'3, 245
Sr.
NR
0.7868
Bryce Peters
RB
5'11, 205
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8000
Johnathan Lewis
RB
5'11, 190
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7893
Rashaad Boddie
RB
6'0, 225
Fr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8256
Marvin Kinsey
RB
6'1, 190
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8100
4. Efficiency despite youth
Quarterback Nick Stevens was a sophomore, Dalyn Dawkins was a sophomore, Izzy Matthews was a freshman, and CSU began the season with a line that featured two sophomores and two juniors. There were upperclassmen involved, too -- the top three receivers (including all-star receiver Rashard Higgins), right tackle Sam Carlson, No. 2 running back Jasen Oden Jr. -- but the offense's slow start was relatively predictable.
The passing game is obviously a concern moving forward; Higgins, Joe Hansley, and tight ends Kivon Cartwright and Steven Walker are gone after accounting for 136 catches and 1,996 yards last year. But the strength of the offense last year was the run, and the main pieces are all back.
Matthews showed star power as a true freshman, and Dawkins rushed for at least 90 yards in five games. (In terms of targets, he was also CSU's No. 4 receiver.) Plus, a line that ranked an incredible 16th in Adj. Line Yards and 17th in Adj. Sack Rate returns four-fifths of its lineup, including all-conference guard Fred Zerblis.
There's a lot to like here, and one just assumes that Bobo and Friend will be able to establish the run once more this fall. But at some point, they'll have to call pass plays. That's when the problems could begin.
Receiving Corps
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Targets
Catches
Yards
Catch Rate
Target
Rate
Yds/
Target
%SD
Success
Rate
IsoPPP
Rashard Higgins
WR
106
75
1062
70.8%
28.7%
10.0
61.3%
63.2%
1.49
Joe Hansley
WR
56
28
415
50.0%
15.2%
7.4
57.1%
41.1%
1.81
Kivon Cartwright
TE
35
18
279
51.4%
9.5%
8.0
60.0%
45.7%
1.68
Dalyn Dawkins
RB
5'9, 175
Jr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8375
34
24
178
70.6%
9.2%
5.2
47.1%
32.4%
1.43
Xavier Williams
WR
6'4, 215
Jr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
33
19
231
57.6%
8.9%
7.0
57.6%
45.5%
1.49
Steven Walker
TE
22
15
240
68.2%
6.0%
10.9
72.7%
54.5%
1.88
Jordon Vaden
WR
6'3, 195
Sr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.8301
22
11
184
50.0%
6.0%
8.4
77.3%
40.9%
1.81
Deionte Gaines
WR
5'8, 180
Jr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8449
19
13
112
68.4%
5.1%
5.9
78.9%
36.8%
1.47
Sammie Long IV
WR
6'3, 195
Jr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.8410
9
5
60
55.6%
2.4%
6.7
44.4%
44.4%
1.32
Jasen Oden, Jr.
RB
8
8
51
100.0%
2.2%
6.4
75.0%
75.0%
0.68
Nu'uvali Fa'apito
FB
6
5
19
83.3%
1.6%
3.2
100.0%
50.0%
0.60
Elroy Masters, Jr.
WR
6'2, 210
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.7933
3
3
35
100.0%
0.8%
11.7
66.7%
66.7%
1.88
Nolan Peralta
TE
6'3, 245
Sr.
NR
0.7000
3
2
26
66.7%
0.8%
8.7
66.7%
33.3%
1.87
Olabisi Johnson
WR
6'0, 185
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8073
3
2
15
66.7%
0.8%
5.0
33.3%
66.7%
0.89
John Freismuth
WR
6'4, 220
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7726
Trey Smith
WR
6'0, 190
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7659
Michael Gallup
WR
6'2, 210
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8428
Dalton Fackrell
TE
6'4, 240
Jr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8231
Darneail Jenkins
TE
6'5, 240
Jr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8315
Isiah Pannunzio
TE
6'2, 215
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8181
Anthony Hawkins
WR
5'11, 185
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8149
5. A reload in the receiving corps
There will at least be some familiar faces for Stevens in the receiving corps. Xavier Williams, Jordon Vaden, and Deionte Gaines were not huge pieces of the passing game in 2015, but they have combined for 109 catches and 1,323 yards in their respective careers. Sammie Long IV and Elroy Masters have combined for 19 more career catches.
Still, in Higgins, CSU must replace one of the nation's most prolific receivers. Over three seasons, Higgins caught 239 passes for 3,649 yards and 31 scores; his transcendent 2014 season was one of the main reasons for CSU's 10-win surge. His opportunities trailed off a bit in 2015's run-first attack, but defenses had to mind him at all times.
Some combination of veterans and incoming JUCOs -- three-star wideout Michael Gallup (one of the more highly-regarded pieces of this past signing class) and tight ends Dalton Fackrell and Darneall Jenkins -- will have to figure out how to punish defenses for getting distracted by the run. The athleticism here seems relatively impressive, but production isn't guaranteed. And Stevens' ability to find some play-makers open will determine whether this is a top-40 offense or a top-75 offense. The run game will be awesome if defenses have to mind the passing game, and while I have the utmost confidence in Bobo and Friend, they can only do so much if receivers don't step up.
Offensive Line
Category
Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team
112
3.34
3.58
42.5%
72.5%
18.2%
170.9
2.3%
5.6%
Rank
16
9
32
24
30
45
17
16
27
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
2015 Starts
Career Starts
Honors/Notes
Fred Zerblis
RG
6'3, 295
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7000
13
26
2015 2nd All-MWC
Sam Carlson
RT
13
26
Jake Bennett
C
6'3, 295
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7993
13
16
Nick Callender
LT
6'5, 315
Sr.
NR
0.7000
10
13
Zack Golditch
LG
6'6, 290
Jr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7685
12
12
Kevin O'Brien
C
2
12
Trae Moxley
LT
6'5, 320
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7998
2
2
Colby Meeks
LG
6'4, 300
So.
2 stars (5.3)
0.8008
0
0
Tomas Rivera
RG
6'6, 330
Sr.
2 stars (5.2)
NR
0
0
Brett Jordan
RT
6'5, 275
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.7000
0
0
Christian Montes
OL
6'4, 270
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7926
0
0
Nicho Garcia
OL
6'5, 300
Jr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8174
Jeff Taylor
OL
6'3, 295
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8026
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Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
Raw Category
Rk
Opp. Adj. Category
Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS
IsoPPP
1.34
101
IsoPPP+
86.2
110
EFFICIENCY
Succ. Rt.
40.7%
62
Succ. Rt. +
91.0
100
FIELD POSITION
Off. Avg. FP
30.7
48
Off. FP+
29.2
87
FINISHING DRIVES
Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity
4.5
78
Redzone S&P+
100.5
69
TURNOVERS
EXPECTED
15.7
ACTUAL
15.0
-0.7
Category
Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk
Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL
55
106
100
110
RUSHING
107
102
98
111
PASSING
9
91
104
81
Standard Downs
88
75
93
Passing Downs
124
126
125
Q1 Rk
92
1st Down Rk
110
Q2 Rk
104
2nd Down Rk
38
Q3 Rk
102
3rd Down Rk
128
Q4 Rk
96
6. One year, one coordinator replacement
You figure Bobo knew he wasn't going to have Tyson Summers for very long. He brought the up-and-coming former UCF defensive coordinator with him in 2015, and after just one season, Summers was named Georgia Southern's head coach.
Bobo didn't search too far for a replacement, simply choosing to promote linebackers coach Marty English. English was Wyoming's defensive coordinator from 2009-11 and has been a linebackers coach at one school or another for much of three decades.
Linebackers were certainly a strength for CSU in 2015 -- the Rams were seventh in the country in Linebacker Havoc Rate-- and that should remain the case with five of six contributors returning. But CSU still ranked just 88th in Def. S&P+ because a dreadful inability to keep opponents from catching back up to the chains. CSU was 124th in Passing Downs S&P+, allowing 62 gains of 20-plus yards (77th in FBS but far worse if you were to adjust for opponent).
English will have a more experienced secondary to work with, and the line does feature five former three-star recruits (per 247). But four are either true or redshirt freshmen, and the fifth, junior Darnell Thompson, has made 0.5 tackles in two seasons. The top four tacklers up front are all gone.
Defensive Line
Category
Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team
94.4
2.82
3.25
40.5%
58.8%
22.7%
92.8
5.7%
7.0%
Rank
89
55
69
89
27
33
78
42
74
Name
Pos
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
GP
Tackles
% of Team
TFL
Sacks
Int
PBU
FF
FR
Joe Kawulok
BUCK
13
27.0
3.8%
7.5
4.5
0
2
1
0
SteveO Michel
BUCK
13
25.5
3.6%
9.5
2.5
0
0
0
0
Martavius Foster
DE
13
21.0
3.0%
8.0
5.5
0
3
1
0
Terry Jackson
NT
11
18.0
2.5%
4.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
Josh Lovingood
DE
6'4, 290
Jr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7833
11
11.5
1.6%
1.0
0.0
0
1
0
0
Colton Foster
NT
6'3, 285
So.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7544
7
6.5
0.9%
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
Justin Hansen
DT
12
6.0
0.8%
1.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
Jakob Buys
DT
6'4, 265
Jr.
NR
NR
11
5.0
0.7%
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
Johnny Schupp
DL
6'5, 275
Sr.
NR
0.7000
12
2.0
0.3%
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
Darnell Thompson
DE
6'5, 275
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8316
Richard King
DE
6'5, 260
RSFr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.8200
O'Shea Jackson
DT
6'1, 290
RSFr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7600
Christian Colon
DT
6'3, 310
Fr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8510
Anthony Smith
DE
6'3, 250
Fr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8504
Arjay Dean
DE
6'3, 220
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7994
Toby McBride
DE
6'3, 250
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7893
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