WKU is the best team in Conference USA, but a QB change and a road-heavy conference slate are clear land mines.
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
1. This is how you build a program
Pretty sure today’s @WKUFootball preview is going to strike a slightly different tone than my first one did in '11. pic.twitter.com/e9neG5MPkz
— Bill Connelly (@SBN_BillC) February 24, 2016
When you're picturing how your program might be able to build from nothing into something, you're basically picturing this chart:
The short version
(Joshua Lindsey-USA TODAY Sports)
2016 projected wins: 8.6
Projected S&P+ ranking: 45 (1 in Conference USA)
5-year recruiting ranking: 89 (5 in Conference USA)
Biggest strength: Every offensive unit but one is absolutely stocked. RB Anthony Wales, WR Taywan Taylor, and LT Forrest Lamp are dynamite.
Biggest question mark: The other unit on offense. Brendan Doughty is gone, and any of five candidates could replace him. Any regression on offense will put pressure on a potentially thin D.
Biggest 2016 game: Every big conference game comes on the road this year, but the trip to Marshall (Nov. 26) remains the biggest.
Summary: In four years, WKU went from Sun Belt also-ran to Conference USA stalwart. Jeff Brohm's Hilltoppers are loaded with playmakers, but without Brandon Doughty, quality of QB play will determine whether they're a slight or significant C-USA favorite.
Grow, then sustain your gains. Grow, then sustain your gains. Granted, having four head coaches in seven seasons isn't the epitome of stability, but like Arkansas State and others, WKU seems to have found stability through infrastructure, support, and good hires.
Since dropping David Elson following a 2-22 stretch in 2008-09, WKU has pulled off something few manage: three consecutive good hires. The Hilltoppers brought in alum Willie Taggart, who won 14 games in 2011-12 after a predictably tough first season. When he left for USF, they hired Bobby Petrino for a rehab stint. And most importantly, they appeared to have Petrino's replacement in mind from the get-go. When he left after one 8-4 season, as he is wont to do, they hired his offensive coordinator/assistant head coach. And while Petrino struggled to get his Louisville offense off the ground over the last two years, Brohm's Hilltoppers achieved liftoff.
After winning eight games again in 2014 but peaking late and knocking off undefeated Marshall, WKU laid waste to the mid-major universe in 2015. Quarterback Brandon Doughty threw for 5,000 yards and almost 50 touchdowns, and despite losing star running back Leon Allen early in the season, the Hilltoppers ranked fourth in Off. S&P+, averaged 44 points per game, won the Conference USA title going away (only one conference foe was able to stay within 14 points), and finished 24th in the AP poll. I predicted they would be the best team in the conference, but I didn't see this coming.
WKU went 11-0 against G5 competition and finished the season in the Miami Beach Bowl against a USF team that had maybe been the AAC's best in November. The Hilltoppers started slowly, misfiring on offense and spotting Taggart's Bulls 14 points. But they scored 28 third-quarter points, gained 612 yards, and pulled away for a 10-point win.
Odds are decent that major programs will come for Brohm soon enough if he is able to replicate this level of success without Doughty in the coming years. But if we've learned anything about WKU in recent years, it's that the Hilltoppers probably have a succession plan in place. When you make three straight good hires, and when you either stay in place or improve for seven straight years, you get the benefit of the doubt.
In 2016, Brohm and the Hilltoppers will take the field without not only Doughty, but also three of their top five receivers, four of seven defensive linemen, three of four linebackers, and their top two cornerbacks. Regression is absolutely conceivable. But when you finish the year leaps and bounds ahead of your conference brethren, regression only makes it a fair fight again.
2015 Schedule & Results
Record: 12-2 | Adj. Record: 12-2 | Final F/+ Rk: 15 | Final S&P+ Rk: 11
Date
Opponent
Opp. F/+ Rk
Score
W-L
Percentile
Performance
Win
Expectancy
vs. S&P+
Performance
vs. Vegas
3-Sep
at Vanderbilt
83
14-12
W
37%
39%
-0.6
-1.0
10-Sep
Louisiana Tech
57
41-38
W
68%
63%
-0.5
+4.0
19-Sep
at Indiana
61
35-38
L
51%
56%
-6.0
-1.5
26-Sep
Miami-OH
113
56-14
W
97%
100%
+20.1
+21.5
3-Oct
at Rice
123
49-10
W
94%
100%
+15.5
+31.5
10-Oct
Middle Tennessee
82
58-28
W
95%
100%
+15.4
+22.0
15-Oct
at North Texas
126
55-28
W
79%
100%
-20.4
-6.0
24-Oct
at LSU
10
20-48
L
25%
5%
-19.9
-11.0
31-Oct
at Old Dominion
117
55-30
W
87%
100%
+4.5
+1.0
7-Nov
Florida Atlantic
96
35-19
W
88%
100%
-2.5
-8.0
21-Nov
at Florida International
112
63-7
W
99%
100%
+38.3
+39.5
27-Nov
Marshall
58
49-28
W
95%
100%
+10.0
+10.5
5-Dec
Southern Miss
56
45-28
W
78%
82%
+2.2
+9.5
21-Dec
vs. South Florida
44
45-35
W
76%
82%
-0.5
+7.5
Category
Offense
Rk
Defense
Rk
S&P+
43.5
4
26.0
53
Points Per Game
44.3
3
25.9
53
2. The welterweight champion of FBS
Sometimes a team doesn't have a weight class. For instance, 2015 Houston beat three power-conference teams (Louisville, Vanderbilt, Florida State) by an average of 17 points but got outgained on a per-play basis by three AAC opponents and lost to UConn. The Cougars' quality of opponent didn't have a specific, direct impact on their quality of output.
On the other hand, WKU was what it was. If the Hilltoppers could match or exceed you from an athleticism standpoint, you were toast. But their three games against power-conference opponents resulted in their three worst performances of the year.
Average Percentile Performance (vs. Power 5 opponents): 38% (Average score: Opp 33, WKU 23)
Average Percentile Performance (vs. everyone else): 87% (Average score: WKU 50, Opp 24)
The 'Toppers survived against a good Vanderbilt defense and very nearly survived a track meet against a good Indiana offense. But their receiver depth was no match for LSU's pass defense, and while they sold out to stop Leonard Fournette, they got torched by play-action.
From a reputation standpoint, playing your best against the best teams puts you a step ahead of the game. Games against bigger opponents are the ones fans are more likely to see, and since this is college football, there's always a "how big a man are ya?" aspect to this. Houston earned its perceived manhood by picking off Florida State four times.
WKU, meanwhile, earned the love of my Excel sheets by handling its business against everybody else. Dominating mid-major competition tends to predict a certain level of success for a team against power teams, too. It didn't happen with WKU for whatever reason. Perhaps it was indeed an athleticism and matchups issue. Maybe it had more to do with a slow start to the season (the only close C-USA result, after all, came between the Vandy and IU games) and a simple poor performance against LSU. Regardless, WKU finished the season as the highest-ranked mid-major in S&P+ but missed an opportunity to make a statement against bigger competition.
You figure WKU fans only lost so much sleep about that. This was an incredible run even with a slow start.
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
Raw Category
Rk
Opp. Adj. Category
Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS
IsoPPP
1.41
9
IsoPPP+
138.8
1
EFFICIENCY
Succ. Rt.
52.3%
1
Succ. Rt. +
125.6
5
FIELD POSITION
Def. Avg. FP
28.9
46
Def. FP+
29.8
70
FINISHING DRIVES
Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity
5.3
6
Redzone S&P+
126.4
5
TURNOVERS
EXPECTED
18.5
ACTUAL
17
-1.5
Category
Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk
Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL
9
3
5
1
RUSHING
90
30
15
57
PASSING
4
4
4
5
Standard Downs
1
1
2
Passing Downs
9
11
7
Q1 Rk
22
1st Down Rk
7
Q2 Rk
2
2nd Down Rk
4
Q3 Rk
10
3rd Down Rk
19
Q4 Rk
11
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2016 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Comp
Att
Yards
TD
INT
Comp
Rate
Sacks
Sack Rate
Yards/
Att.
Brandon Doughty
388
540
5055
48
9
71.9%
15
2.7%
8.9
Nelson Fishback
6'2, 215
Sr.
NR
NR
7
8
70
0
0
87.5%
0
0.0%
8.8
Mike White
(USF)
6'4, 210
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8261
122
242
1639
8
7
50.4%
16
6.2%
5.9
Tyler Ferguson
(Louisville)
6'4, 217
Sr.
NR
NR
Drew Eckels
6'4, 210
So.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7801
Reese Ryan
6'2, 180
RSFr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8535
Steven Duncan
6'5, 230
Fr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7933
3. Ode to Brandon Doughty
Like WKU itself, Brandon Doughty made improvement seem easy and linear.
Year(s)
Passes
Comp. Rate
Yards/Comp
TD Rate
INT Rate
2011-12
25
56%
8.1
0%
4%
2013
374
66%
11.6
4%
4%
2014
552
68%
12.9
9%
2%
2015
540
72%
13.0
9%
2%
A three-year starter, Doughty finished his career with 12,855 passing yards, 111 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions. Both his completion rate and average yards per completion improved every single season, and his touchdown and interception rates either improved or stayed the same. There was no regression to be found.
It's not supposed to work that way. In fact, I end up saying "Improvement is not linear" frequently when talking about players and teams. But for WKU and Doughty, it was.
And now Doughty's gone. College players always leave. And the spring battle for his replacement could be fascinating. Nelson Fishback has been awesome in scrub time; he has completed 18 of 26 passes so far in his career, and he is probably more mobile than Doughty as well. But he'll have his work cut out for him to win the job.
USF transfer Mike White, who started for Taggart as a freshman, will be eligible and ready for a challenge. So will former Penn State and Louisville reserve Tyler Ferguson. Redshirt freshman Reese Ryan was the most well-regarded quarterback of the bunch in terms of the 247Sports Composite ratings. And sophomore Drew Eckels has requisite size and is entering his third year in the program.
Because Fishback has shown promise, one figures the bar is pretty high. If, for instance, White overtakes him, that might mean he has grown past some of the sacks-and-picks issues he struggled with on a couple of bad USF offenses. (Having a better receiving corps won't hurt.)
Whoever wins the QB job in 2016 will have a fan in Doughty and should be competent and solid, even if he represents a step back from Doughty's 2015 form.
Running Back
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Rushes
Yards
TD
Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
Fum.
Lost
Leon Allen
(2014)
RB
6'0, 235
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7500
272
1542
13
5.7
5.6
40.4%
3
0
D'Andre Ferby
RB
6'1, 240
So.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8206
164
650
11
4.0
3.1
33.5%
0
0
Anthony Wales
RB
5'10, 195
Sr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8631
155
1091
9
7.0
5.1
55.5%
1
0
Darmontre Warr
RB
5'9, 195
Sr.
NR
0.8117
35
124
2
3.5
2.0
40.0%
0
0
Anthony Davis
RB
25
102
1
4.1
3.7
36.0%
3
1
Brandon Doughty
QB
12
2
1
0.2
4.7
16.7%
5
1
Taywan Taylor
WR
6'1, 195
Sr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
7
-9
0
-1.3
5.1
28.6%
1
0
Nicholas Norris
WR
5'9, 175
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7859
6
63
1
10.5
5.3
83.3%
0
0
Quinton Baker
RB
5'10, 180
Fr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8435
Receiving Corps
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Targets
Catches
Yards
Catch Rate
Target
Rate
Yds/
Target
%SD
Success
Rate
IsoPPP
Taywan Taylor
WR
6'1, 195
Sr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
115
86
1467
74.8%
21.3%
12.8
73.0%
59.1%
2.11
Jared Dangerfield
WR
111
82
844
73.9%
20.5%
7.6
64.0%
55.9%
1.29
Nicholas Norris
WR
5'9, 175
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7859
89
63
971
70.8%
16.5%
10.9
53.9%
50.6%
2.05
Antwane Grant
WR
85
55
701
64.7%
15.7%
8.2
65.9%
51.8%
1.49
Tyler Higbee
TE
49
38
563
77.6%
9.1%
11.5
59.2%
69.4%
1.64
Anthony Wales
RB
5'10, 195
Sr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8631
30
27
225
90.0%
5.5%
7.5
43.3%
53.3%
1.37
Nacarius Fant
WR
5'9, 185
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8274
17
13
159
76.5%
3.1%
9.4
52.9%
52.9%
1.65
Tim Gorski
TE
13
10
119
76.9%
2.4%
9.2
76.9%
69.2%
1.33
D'Andre Ferby
RB
6'1, 240
So.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8206
12
9
33
75.0%
2.2%
2.8
91.7%
25.0%
0.94
Leon Allen
RB
6'0, 235
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7500
7
5
72
71.4%
1.3%
10.3
57.1%
28.6%
3.34
Darmontre Warr
RB
5'9, 195
Sr.
NR
0.8117
2
2
16
100.0%
0.4%
8.0
100.0%
100.0%
0.73
Will Bush
WR
5'11, 195
So.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7519
2
1
8
50.0%
0.4%
4.0
100.0%
50.0%
0.89
Kylen Towner
WR
5'8, 175
Jr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
Nick True
TE
6'5, 265
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7594
Quin Jernighan
WR
6'3, 210
RSFr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8305
Xavier Lane
WR
6'4, 200
Fr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8422
Chris Cotto
WR
5'11, 190
Fr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8191
Jahcour Pearson
WR
5'9, 180
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8076
4. If you've got the QB, you've got the skill position guys
Until we know that the quarterback position is in good hands, it's a question mark. But with competence at QB, the other pieces should fall into place.
Leon Allen was a spectacular force as a junior in 2014, a 235-pounder with open-field explosiveness. He began his senior season with far more efficiency, too (his opportunity rate was 48 percent), but in Game 2 against Louisiana Tech, he was lost for the season to a gruesome leg injury. He has since suffered some setbacks in his rehabilitation, and his status is unclear. In theory, he might be eligible for a medical redshirt if he wants one, but at present both the likeliness that he would either pursue or receive one is unclear.
The good news is that Allen's replacements proved up to the task in 2015. Granted, well-regarded freshman D'Andre Ferby definitely looked like an inconsistent freshman, but Anthony Wales was outstanding. After barely playing for the first five weeks of the year, he set a torrid pace in the final nine games, rushing for over 1,000 yards and averaging at least 5.5 yards per carry seven of nine times. He was consistent, efficient, and reasonably explosive.
Meanwhile at receiver, a lot is gone and a lot returns. Gone: Jared Dangerfield, Antwane Grant, and tight end Tyler Higbee, who combined for 175 catches and 2,108 yards (8.6 per target). Returning: Taywan Taylor and Nicholas Norris, who combined for 149 catches and 2,438 yards (12.0 per target). Taylor was particularly ridiculous. He caught at least five passes in 11 of 14 games, and he had at least 94 receiving yards in 10.
In Taylor and Wales, WKU has two known stars. In Ferby and junior Nacarius Fant, the 'Toppers have two former star recruits who might be ready to take a step forward. And in receivers Quin Jernighan, Xavier Lane, Chris Cotto and Jahcour Pearson and running back Quinton Baker, they have a new crop of three-stars signed over the last 13 months or so. Allen or no Allen, WKU is loaded. And that's before we point out that the entire starting line is back.
Offensive Line
Category
Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team
109.2
3.19
3.06
43.9%
69.8%
17.1%
254.6
1.0%
5.2%
Rank
30
23
82
14
38
27
6
4
21
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
2015 Starts
Career Starts
Honors/Notes
Forrest Lamp
LT
6'4, 300
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7000
14
39
2015 1st All-CUSA
Brandon Ray
LG
6'2, 285
Jr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
14
28
Darrell Williams, Jr.
RT
6'6, 310
Sr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
14
27
Max Halpin
C
6'3, 295
Sr.
NR
NR
14
24
Dennis Edwards
RG
6'1, 305
So.
2 stars (5.3)
0.8118
12
12
Joe Manley
RG
6'6, 315
Sr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8250
2
2
Parker Howell
LT
6'4, 275
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7993
0
0
Maurice Bennett
LG
0
0
Jimmie Sims
RT
6'5, 290
Jr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
0
0
Matt Nord
RT
6'6, 310
Sr.
NR
NR
0
0
Cullen Reynolds
OL
6'5, 310
RSFr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7928
R.J. Scaife
OL
6'5, 275
RSFr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7333
Hunter Holland
OL
6'2, 275
RSFr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7726
Tyler Witt
OL
6'3, 295
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8093
5. One key departure up front
Having Doughty certainly helped, but WKU's line did everything it was supposed to in 2015. Maybe the more mobile Fishback creates some blocking confusion by scrambling more, or maybe complacency sets in. But in general, when you return all five starters (and 10 total seasons of starting experience) from a good line, that's a good thing.
The one obstacle: a new offensive line coach. Experience up front doesn't appear to matter as much as we probably think, and coaching quality might be of vital importance on the OL. So when Neil Callaway became one of many assistants to get plucked away this offseason (he said yes to the same OL role at USC), it had to be cause for concern.
Brohm made an interesting hire in replacing Callaway. Dale Williams was Howard Schnellenberger's OL coach at FAU from 2005-11 and worked with Brohm in that span, but he has spent the last four years as a high school coach. Odd hires often work out beautifully, but Williams will have a very high bar to clear here.
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Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
Raw Category
Rk
Opp. Adj. Category
Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS
IsoPPP
1.31
92
IsoPPP+
99.8
67
EFFICIENCY
Succ. Rt.
40.5%
61
Succ. Rt. +
101.0
64
FIELD POSITION
Off. Avg. FP
31.8
31
Off. FP+
30.6
51
FINISHING DRIVES
Pts. Per Scoring Opportunity
4.1
37
Redzone S&P+
95.0
86
TURNOVERS
EXPECTED
26.5
ACTUAL
31.0
+4.5
Category
Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk
Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL
71
62
64
67
RUSHING
59
55
73
50
PASSING
86
73
56
79
Standard Downs
52
61
49
Passing Downs
88
79
89
Q1 Rk
20
1st Down Rk
54
Q2 Rk
69
2nd Down Rk
18
Q3 Rk
58
3rd Down Rk
82
Q4 Rk
118
6. Strong out of the gates, at least
WKU's defense was awful at almost nothing and really good in the first quarter. With an offense like what the Hilltoppers had, that's more than enough. The defense had just enough success for WKU to build a lead, and then a track meet ensued. (It bears mentioning that while WKU's fourth-quarter defensive numbers were dreadful, part of that is because garbage time is not filtered out of the per-quarter averages.) And on the rare occasion when the offense wasn't posting 40-plus points, the defense seemed capable of making a few extra stops, as evidenced in the 14-12 win over Vanderbilt and the 35-19 win over FAU.
In theory, WKU's offense will still be good in 2015, but not quite top-five good. That might put pressure on the defense to improve, and the two-deep has been thinned out a decent amount.
Defensive Line
Category
Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team
99.5
2.78
3.35
39.4%
61.8%
21.2%
65.7
2.5%
5.2%
Rank
65
45
79
79
37
49
117
119
102
Name
Pos
Ht, Wt
2016
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
GP
Tackles
% of Team
TFL
Sacks
Int
PBU
FF
FR
Derik Overstreet
DE
6'2, 250
Jr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7619
14
39.5
5.0%
9.0
2.0
0
1
1
0
Gavin Rocker
DE
13
29.5
3.7%
6.0
2.5
0
1
0
0
Jontavius Morris
DT
11
25.0
3.1%
5.0
2.0
0
3
0
0
Omarius Bryant
DT
6'3, 310
Sr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7733
11
23.5
2.9%
3.5
1.5
0
0
0
0
Ge'Monee Brown
DT
12
15.0
1.9%
2.5
0.5
0
0
0
0
Tanner Reeves
DE
6'4, 240
Jr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.8100
11
13.5
1.7%
4.5
1.5
0
0
1
0
Bryan Shorter
DT
9
12.0
1.5%
2.0
1.0
0
1
0
0
Kalvin Robinson
DE
6'5, 250
Sr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
6
4.5
0.6%
1.5
1.0
0
0
0
0
Devante Duclos
DE
6'1, 240
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7876
3
3.5
0.4%
1.0
0.0
0
1
0
0
Nick Dawson-Brents
(Louisville)
DE
6'3, 260
Sr.
4 stars (5.9)
0.9149
2
3.0
0.4%
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
Devante Terrell
DT
6'0, 290
Sr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.7600
2
2.0
0.3%
0.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
Sidney Hammond
DE
6'2, 250
Jr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7900
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