The 128-team countdown takes on what's becoming one of the country's most talented mid-majors.
Confused? Check out the advanced-stats glossary here.
1. The unsafe choice, one year in
Judging by the Owls' performance under [interim coach Brian] Wright [in 2013], it would have been understandable if FAU had just given him the full-time keys. His guidance of the program was better than his guidance of the offense, and with solid returning talent, he could have engineered a strong 2014. Granted, he only had a month of experience as FAU's head coach, but he proved quite a bit.
The Owls took a bigger risk, giving the job to 40-year-old Charlie Partridge. A Plantation, Fla., native, Partridge spent the last six years as a Bret Bielema assistant. He is known as an ace recruiter with all sorts of Florida ties, and he has backed up those claims by already locking down two high-profile commitments.
The odds are good that his recruiting ability will help build the Owls into one of the more purely athletic teams in Conference USA. What we don't know yet is whether he'll be able to coach.
In choosing a successor for Carl Pelini, FAU went after a high-ceiling, unknown-floor guy in Charlie Partridge. Brian Wright had engineered four straight wins and a 6-6 finish for the Owls in 2013, but bringing an ace recruiter to a school in Florida sounded like too much of an opportunity to pass up.
TL;DR
Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports
2014 F/+ ranking and record: 100 (3-9)
5-year recruiting ranking: 94
Biggest strength: Quarterback Jaquez Johnson is exciting and increasingly efficient
Biggest question mark: Run defense was a shambles last year
Biggest 2015 game: at Tulsa (Sept. 5)
In one sentence: Head coach Charlie Partridge was hired with his recruiting prowess in mind, and he produced the second-best Conference USA class right out of the gates; can he produce on-field results?
One year in, the jury's still out. The offense took a step forward, but the defense regressed, and the product did not match what the Owls were doing in late 2013. FAU was solid at home, whipping Tulsa, knocking off Western Kentucky and narrowly falling to two .500 teams (UAB, ODU). But the Owls were a horror show on the road and finished 3-9 as a result.
Heading into Year 2, Partridge will field a team that could be even more efficient on offense and even shakier on defense. He did sign the best non-Marshall recruiting class in Conference USA, so he lived up to the hype. And that will buy him plenty of time.
2. Scarlett fever
Conceptually, FAU's class was of particular interest because of a theory that began floating around a year ago. A couple of days after Christmas 2013, running back Jordan Scarlett, one of the premier running backs in the class of 2015, committed to Partridge and FAU. The response from recruiting analysts was two-pronged and nearly unanimous: 1) There's no chance Scarlett remains committed to FAU over the 13 months before Signing Day, and 2) this is still fantastic for FAU because Partridge and his staff now have "momentum" in South Florida. Scarlett's commitment could end up helping to secure other FAU commitments even if he eventually decommits.
To me, this felt dissonant. If recruits are taking FAU more seriously because of Scarlett's commitment, should we assume they will continue to take FAU seriously once he decommits? What kind of momentum are we really looking at if the source of the momentum doesn't end up playing in Boca Raton?
Sure enough, Scarlett didn't sign wih the Owls. He decommitted in June, committed to Miami in July, then flipped to Florida. But before Scarlett flipped, FAU scored commitments from three-star prospects Rodrick Archer (safety from Plantation, Fla.), Daniel Parr (quarterback from Palm Beach Gardens), Jaye Miner (linebacker from Wesley Chapel), Azeez Al-Shaair (linebacker from Tampa), Tavaris Harrison (receiver from North Miami Beach), and Tarrick Thomas (lineman from Tallahassee). They remained committed after Scarlett flipped, and FAU then proceeded to add another eight three-star signees, (according to the 247Sports Composite.
At the least, Scarlett's predictable decommitment didn't hurt FAU's efforts. If nothing else, perhaps Scarlett gave others a reason to take a look at FAU, and when they did, they liked what they saw. Partridge signed 247's No. 79 class in the country, one that ranked second in Conference USA and would have placed in the upper half of AAC. Not bad for a school that averaged 3.7 wins per season since 2015's signees entered junior high.
2014 Schedule & Results
Record: 3-9 | Adj. Record: 2-10 | Final F/+ Rk: 100
Date
Opponent
Opp. F/+ Rk
Score
W-L
Percentile
Performance
Adj. Scoring
Margin
Win
Expectancy
30-Aug
at Nebraska
30
7-55
L
6%
-35.4
0%
6-Sep
at Alabama
2
0-41
L
3%
-43.3
0%
13-Sep
Tulsa
117
50-21
W
87%
26.5
100%
20-Sep
at Wyoming
113
19-20
L
31%
-11.7
49%
27-Sep
UTSA
109
41-37
W
33%
-10.5
38%
2-Oct
at Florida International
96
10-38
L
13%
-25.8
4%
18-Oct
Western Kentucky
50
45-38
W
70%
12.4
78%
25-Oct
at Marshall
17
16-35
L
29%
-12.7
0%
1-Nov
UAB
79
28-31
L
49%
-0.7
43%
8-Nov
at North Texas
125
10-31
L
6%
-36.2
0%
22-Nov
at Middle Tennessee
87
34-35
L
42%
-4.5
37%
29-Nov
Old Dominion
108
28-31
L
46%
-2.6
52%
Category
Offense
Rk
Defense
Rk
S&P+
25.8
86
34.9
107
Points Per Game
24.0
97
34.4
110
3. No place like Boca Raton
In this year's UMass and Ohio previews, I talked about home-road splits as it pertains to percentile performances. This is still a new concept for me, something I created for this year's series. But it's been interesting to track. Some teams, like UMass (which played some of its games in mostly empty Gillette Stadium) had almost no split between home and road performances. Others, like Ohio, had enormous splits.
FAU's split was even larger than Ohio's.
Average Percentile Performance (away): 19% (record: 0-7)
Average Percentile Performance (home): 57% (record: 3-2)
At home, FAU played like one of the better teams in Conference USA. Against Tulsa, UTSA, WKU, UAB, and ODU, the Owls averaged 6.6 yards per play and allowed 5.4. They averaged 38.4 points per game and were a bit unlucky to allow 31.6.
On the road, FAU averaged 4.6 yards per play and allowed 6.9. Part of that disparity comes from the schedule, which featured by far the season's three best opponents (Nebraska, Alabama, Marshall) on the road. But the schedule-adjusted percentiles show us FAU was vastly inferior away from Boca Raton.
Maybe this is a sign of youth and a new coaching staff. I plan on diving further into these percentiles at some point, and maybe we'll see correlations among the teams with huge splits. Regardless, FAU was both young and awful outside of its own area code.
Offense
FIVE FACTORS -- OFFENSE
Raw Category
Rk
Opp. Adj. Category
Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS
IsoPPP
0.85
66
IsoPPP+
93.1
85
EFFICIENCY
Succ. Rt.
42.0%
59
Succ. Rt. +
98.7
73
FIELD POSITION
Def. Avg. FP
30.5
79
Def. FP+
101.0
53
FINISHING DRIVES
Pts. Per Trip in 40
3.9
97
Redzone S&P+
92.6
88
TURNOVERS
EXPECTED
18.6
ACTUAL
18
-0.6
Category
Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk
Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL
103
83
73
85
RUSHING
62
81
80
77
PASSING
92
77
59
84
Standard Downs
72
71
71
Passing Downs
101
79
103
Q1 Rk
94
1st Down Rk
97
Q2 Rk
109
2nd Down Rk
76
Q3 Rk
99
3rd Down Rk
100
Q4 Rk
40
Quarterback
Note: players in bold below are 2015 returnees. Players in italics are questionable with injury/suspension.
Player
Ht, Wt
2015
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Comp
Att
Yards
TD
INT
Comp
Rate
Sacks
Sack Rate
Yards/
Att.
Jaquez Johnson
6'1, 225
Sr.
2 stars (5.3)
NR
182
315
2215
17
5
57.8%
15
4.5%
6.5
Greg Hankerson
6'0, 185
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7826
23
48
163
1
0
47.9%
6
11.1%
2.1
Jason Driskel
6'2, 210
RSFr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8129
Daniel Parr
6'3, 190
Fr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8364
4. Jaquez vs. consistency
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Underdog Dynasty blog Underdog Dynasty
In 2013, Jaquez Johnson seized control of the quarterback job, rushed for 870 non-sack yards and completing 57 percent at an explosive 14.8 yards per completion. FAU's offense was increasingly vertical, and in the Owls' season-ending four-game win streak, they averaged 38 points despite a slow tempo.
Wright remained at FAU as offensive coordinator when Partridge was hired, but the big plays dried up. Explosive stars Jay Warren and William Dukes were held in check, leaving Johnson to move the ball with efficiency. At times he did this.
He got hurt against Nebraska and missed the Alabama game, but in his first three home games he completed 62 of 88 passes (70 percent) for 938 yards, nine touchdowns, and no picks. Against WKU, he threw for 325 yards and rushed for 95. Like the rest of the team, he was mostly awful away from home, but despite an overall lack of big plays, he still increased his per-attempt passing average (from 6.4 to 6.5) while cutting down his sack and interception rates and still rushing efficiently.
Johnson wasn't efficient enough for FAU to put up big numbers when the big plays weren't flowing in. His completion rate was at 64 percent or higher in four of 11 games, but it was 51 percent or lower in five. His senior season will be graded by how well he can maintain form.
Warren returns to the backfield, and there are recent star signees who could do damage at the skill positions. But his receiving corps will be awfully green, and that might make it difficult to improve.
Running Back
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2015
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Rushes
Yards
TD
Yards/
Carry
Hlt Yds/
Opp.
Opp.
Rate
Fumbles
Fum.
Lost
Jay Warren
RB
6'0, 195
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8356
121
571
2
4.7
4.8
35.5%
4
2
Jaquez Johnson
QB
6'1, 225
Sr.
2 stars (5.3)
NR
105
599
7
5.7
4.8
44.8%
4
3
Tony Moore
RB
75
299
3
4.0
2.8
33.3%
1
1
Greg Howell
RB
6'1, 205
So.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8233
50
253
1
5.1
3.3
44.0%
2
1
Lucky Whitehead
WR
21
210
1
10.0
16.5
42.9%
5
4
Jeremy Gaskins
RB
5'10, 190
Sr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7564
19
55
0
2.9
2.5
31.6%
0
0
Martese Jackson
RB
14
29
0
2.1
1.7
21.4%
0
0
Greg Hankerson
QB
6'0, 185
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7826
7
41
0
5.9
4.9
42.9%
0
0
Henry Bussey
RB
5'9, 180
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7556
7
29
0
4.1
1.1
71.4%
1
0
Trey Rodriguez
RB
5'10, 185
Fr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8566
Receiving Corps
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2015
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Targets
Catches
Yards
Catch Rate
Target
Rate
%SD
Yds/
Target
NEY
Real Yds/
Target
RYPR
Lucky Whitehead
WR-W
106
76
709
71.7%
29.8%
58.5%
6.7
-192
6.7
92.1
Jenson Stoshak
WR-X
6'1, 195
Sr.
2 stars (5.3)
NR
65
38
511
58.5%
18.3%
76.9%
7.9
43
8.5
66.4
Alex Deleon
TE
46
23
295
50.0%
12.9%
65.2%
6.4
2
6.9
38.3
William Dukes
WR-Z
38
15
259
39.5%
10.7%
68.4%
6.8
56
6.6
33.7
Kalib Woods
WR-Z
6'3, 182
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8300
31
16
223
51.6%
8.7%
67.7%
7.2
21
6.6
28.9
Derek Moise
WR
6'2, 195
Sr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7600
21
10
74
47.6%
5.9%
52.4%
3.5
-55
3.8
9.6
Nate Terry
TE
6'6, 210
So.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7000
9
3
55
33.3%
2.5%
33.3%
6.1
12
8.1
7.1
Jay Warren
RB
6'0, 195
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8356
8
4
26
50.0%
2.2%
25.0%
3.3
-25
2.5
3.4
Henry Bussey
RB
5'9, 180
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7556
6
4
88
66.7%
1.7%
16.7%
14.7
40
7.0
11.4
Tony Moore
RB
5
3
43
60.0%
1.4%
0.0%
8.6
6
N/A
5.6
Kamrin Solomon
WR
6'2, 196
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7882
3
2
28
66.7%
0.8%
66.7%
9.3
4
9.7
3.6
Michael Harrop
TE
6'3, 220
Sr.
NR
NR
2
1
12
50.0%
0.6%
50.0%
6.0
-1
6.9
1.6
Dustin Bowens
TE
6'5, 255
So.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7900
Bobby Mitchell
WR
6'2, 175
RSFr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8156
Chandler Dexter
TE
6'5, 255
Jr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7600
Ralph Leonard
WR
6'2, 182
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8256
Tavaris Harrison
WR
6'3, 166
Fr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.8169
Ladante Harris
WR
5'10, 160
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7932
5. Find some receivers (and hold onto the damn ball)
Because of sacks, most quarterbacks end up fumbling at least four or five times per season. So Johnson's four gaffes weren't too bad. But Jay Warren fumbled once every 30 carries, and leading receiver Lucky Whitehead managed to fumble five times in 97 catches/carries. And they didn't back those mistakes up with nearly enough big plays.
Whitehead will still be missed after a stellar season as a possession man; he caught 19 passes for 227 yards against WKU and Marshall, and he provided a needed efficiency option: while his catch rate was a lovely 72 percent, the next seven targets combined for a catch rate of 50.0 percent, and that includes two tight ends and a running back.
Johnson will be without Whitehead, leading tight end Alex Deleon, and all-or-nothing receiver William Dukes. He does get back last year's most successful per-target receiver, Jenson Stoshak. But after Stoshak comes a cavalcade of high-ceiling guys who have yet to prove much: sophomore Kalib Woods, redshirt freshman Bobby Mitchell, true freshmen Ralph Leonard and Tavaris Harrison.
Athleticism won't be an issue, and if those touching the ball can hold onto it, that would be great.
Offensive Line
Category
Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team
103.3
3.11
3.55
38.9%
63.4%
17.1%
150.1
3.5%
5.3%
Rank
60
42
40
71
96
36
18
33
32
Player
Pos.
Ht, Wt
2015
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
Career Starts
Honors/Notes
Braden Lyons
RT
24
Dillon DeBoer
RG
6'6, 295
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7000
18
Mikingson Marsaille
LG
6'6, 320
Sr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7600
14
Reggie Bain
LT
6'4, 286
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7856
12
Joe Gold
C
6'3, 270
So.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8056
6
Eric Minemyer
RT
6
Jakobi Smith
RG
6'3, 300
So.
NR
0.7500
1
Arthur Crouse
LT
6'6, 250
Jr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
0
Roman Fernandez
LG
6'0, 305
So.
NR
NR
0
Antonyo Woods
RG
6'3, 285
So.
NR
NR
0
Austin Bland
OL
6'3, 265
So.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8407
0
Siffo Pierre
OL
6'4, 325
RSFr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7000
Kelly Parfitt (UCF)
OL
6'6, 313
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8044
Tarrick Thomas
OL
6'4, 270
Fr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8503
Bryan Beck
OL
6'5, 275
Fr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7583
6. An underrated front
The running game didn't produce nearly as many big plays in 2014 (12 rushes of 20-plus yards, 96th in FBS) as 2013 (20, 45th). But it was able to consistently gain four to five yards. The line played a role, and it helped in keeping Johnson's sack rates pretty low despite his dual-threat nature. (Dual-threats tend to have higher sack rates because they trust their legs to make too many plays.)
The return of five players with starting experience (51 career starts) is unquestionably a good thing. The line did its job despite three freshmen getting starting experience, and adding UCF transfer Kelly Parfitt to the rotation, along with (perhaps) star recruit Tarrick Thomas, should create one of the conference's best lines. And if you have a good line, an exciting quarterback, and an experienced starting running back, you can move the ball.
Defense
FIVE FACTORS -- DEFENSE
Raw Category
Rk
Opp. Adj. Category
Rk
EXPLOSIVENESS
IsoPPP
0.88
86
IsoPPP+
92.3
91
EFFICIENCY
Succ. Rt.
45.9%
109
Succ. Rt. +
92.3
101
FIELD POSITION
Off. Avg. FP
29.7
77
Off. FP+
98.0
88
FINISHING DRIVES
Pts. Per Trip in 40
4.9
114
Redzone S&P+
88.1
112
TURNOVERS
EXPECTED
17.3
ACTUAL
15.0
-2.3
Category
Yards/
Game Rk
S&P+ Rk
Success
Rt. Rk
PPP+ Rk
OVERALL
113
99
99
91
RUSHING
114
114
117
113
PASSING
87
54
52
50
Standard Downs
97
100
92
Passing Downs
91
83
88
Q1 Rk
119
1st Down Rk
94
Q2 Rk
89
2nd Down Rk
102
Q3 Rk
68
3rd Down Rk
105
Q4 Rk
82
Defensive Line
Category
Adj.
Line Yds
Std.
Downs
LY/carry
Pass.
Downs
LY/carry
Opp.
Rate
Power
Success
Rate
Stuff
Rate
Adj.
Sack Rate
Std.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Pass.
Downs
Sack Rt.
Team
87.8
3.34
3.96
42.4%
63.5%
12.5%
91.1
3.5%
8.6%
Rank
113
116
122
102
44
127
85
91
43
Name
Pos
Ht, Wt
2015
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
GP
Tackles
% of Team
TFL
Sacks
Int
PBU
FF
FR
Trevon Coley
DT
6'2, 300
Sr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8125
12
37.0
5.3%
6.5
4.0
1
1
0
0
Trey Hendrickson
DE
6'4, 250
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7956
12
24.5
3.5%
8.5
5.0
0
1
1
0
Robinson Eugene
DE
6'5, 266
Sr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.7000
12
18.5
2.7%
3.0
2.0
0
0
0
0
Haiden Nagel
DE
6'4, 230
So.
2 stars (5.3)
NR
11
16.0
2.3%
2.0
2.0
0
1
0
0
Shalom Ogbonda
DE
6'4, 290
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.8157
11
14.0
2.0%
0.5
0.0
0
1
0
0
Joe Henry
DE
7
12.0
1.7%
3.0
2.0
0
0
0
0
Denzel Whitfield
DT
6'5, 260
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7000
12
12.0
1.7%
1.0
0.0
0
0
0
0
Ray Ellis
DT
6'1, 260
So.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7444
6
11.0
1.6%
1.0
1.0
0
0
0
0
Brandin Bryant
DT
6'3, 290
Sr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.7000
5
9.5
1.4%
2.5
2.0
0
0
1
0
Derek Butcher
DT
11
6.0
0.9%
2.0
1.0
0
1
0
0
Josh Ballesteros
DE
6'2, 210
Jr.
2 stars (5.3)
0.7751
5
5.0
0.7%
1.0
1.0
0
0
0
0
Josh Kendall
DT
6'2, 269
Jr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7593
7. Dreadful against the run
A shaky front seven can threaten even the best secondary; if there's a minimal pass rush, or if the front is getting gashed for seven yards per carry, the defensive backs won't get many opportunities to dominate. But with competence up front, the FAU secondary could be just as effective as it was in 2013 in this 4-2-5 structure. [...]
This is one of the best defensive backfields in mid-major football. It might be the best.
To say the least, I was bullish on FAU's secondary last year, and I had reason for it. Despite horrific rush defense and a mediocre pass rush, FAU managed a No. 54 ranking in Passing S&P+. That says wonderful things about the defensive backs.
But my caveat -- "with competence up front..." -- rang true. FAU ranked 114th in Rushing S&P+, 113th in Adj. Line Yards, and 127th in Stuff Rate (run stops at or behind the line). A good pass defense only matters if you can pretend to stop the run.
Because experience so frequently leads to good play, it is frequently the case that teams return players from weak units while replacing key pieces from good units. Such is life for FAU: eight of the top nine tacklers from last year's line return, while three of the top five in the secondary are gone.
Outside of Trevon Coley, FAU couldn't figure out its tackle situation, so if another year helps to set a rotation, that can only help. But the Owls had only one disruptive presence against the run (linebacker Andrae Kirk), and he's the player FAU has to replace. Improvement isn't guaranteed.
Linebackers
Name
Pos
Ht, Wt
2015
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
GP
Tackles
% of Team
TFL
Sacks
Int
PBU
FF
FR
Andrae Kirk
LB
12
77.5
11.1%
10.5
2.0
2
8
1
0
Robert Relf
LB
6'3, 220
Jr.
3 stars (5.5)
0.7991
11
44.5
6.4%
1.5
0.0
0
0
0
0
Jerrad Ward
LB
6'0, 215
So.
2 stars (5.2)
NR
10
20.5
2.9%
1.0
0.0
0
1
0
0
David Lozandier
LB
6
13.5
1.9%
1.0
1.0
0
1
0
0
Nate Ozdemir
LB
6'2, 230
So.
2 stars (5.4)
NR
10
11.0
1.6%
0.5
0.0
0
0
0
0
Freedom Whitfield
LB
6'2, 200
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.7600
9
9.0
1.3%
1.5
0.0
0
0
0
0
Kris Harris
LB
6'0, 225
RSFr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8322
Jaye Miner
LB
6'3, 190
Fr.
3 stars (5.6)
0.8438
Azeez Al-Shaair
LB
6'1, 215
Fr.
2 stars (5.2)
0.8005
Secondary
Name
Pos
Ht, Wt
2015
Year
Rivals
247 Comp.
GP
Tackles
% of Team
TFL
Sacks
Int
PBU
FF
FR
Damian Parms
SS
12
67.0
9.6%
3
0
0
1
1
0
Cre'von LeBlanc
CB
5'11, 175
Sr.
2 stars (5.4)
0.8157
12
63.0
9.1%
1
0
2
6
0
0
Christian Milstead
FS
12
47.5
6.8%
1
0
0
7
0
0
Sharrod Neasman
NB
6'0, 198
Sr.
NR
NR
12
46.0
6.6%
3
0
2
3
1
0
D'Joun Smith
CB
11
43.5
6.3%