What if college football teams had to earn the right to play in the best conferences? You know, like soccer. Here's a pair of updates on the concept after the 2014 season.
What relegation would allow is the possibility that underperforming teams not living up to the aristocratic standard would be booted into the mob to prove their worth anew, and perhaps lose their seats permanently to hungrier underlings. If screwing someone out of a spot in the penthouse isn't the American dream, we don't know what is.
-- Why college football needs to embrace cannibalism
Three years ago, following a delicious end to the English Premier League season, we crafted a series promoting the glories of relegation and why it would work perfectly in college football. That is, it would create beautiful messes and solve problems while creating others, but that's how we tend to judge beauty in this gorgeously ugly sport.
It would also bring merit to the table.
College football's heavyweights, distributed through five conferences, are in the process of separating themselves from the rest of the sport. They want as big a slice of the pie as possible, and they want to do things for players (full-cost-of-attendance scholarships) and for themselves (waterfalls in facilities that never needed waterfalls) other schools can't afford.
These conferences are littered with dead weight. All five power conferences -- the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC -- have programs that are there because they chose the right friends 80 years ago, are located near large population bases, or were good right when a major conference was looking for one more team.
Meanwhile, well-run small programs languish because their timing was bad or they don't bring a big enough TV market.
In the last nine seasons, since Dan Hawkins left Boise State for Colorado, BSU has gone 13-6 against current power-conference teams and finished in the AP's top 11 five times. CU has gone 18-69 against power teams and attended one minor bowl. But which belongs to a power conference?
The basics
In England, the bottom three teams in the Premier League standings get demoted to the second-level Championship League every year, while three Championship teams -- the top two finishers and the winner of a playoff between the next four teams -- take their place for the next season.
The same thing happens with teams flipping between Championship and third-tier League 1. And between League 1 and fourth-tier League 2. It is a siphoning of weaker clubs and an acknowledgement that everybody, from global brand Chelsea to a team in the 24th tier, is part of the same entity. They make drastically different amounts of money, and there is a ruling class, but Football League members are Football League members.
Just like NCAA members could be NCAA members.
How it would look
Each power conference would work similarly to a country within the European system. (I'll let you determine which is which, but the Big Ten is definitely England. The SEC is ... Italy? Germany? The Big 12 is Portugal.) That means each of the five has its own set of affiliated smaller conferences. Let's walk through each tier, from the power conferences to the bottom of Division II.
(Note: to get a feel for how relegation would work, each league's 2014 winner and promotion candidate is in bold, while the last-place team and current relegation candidate is crossed out. Also, independents are in conferences now.)
ACC Tier I
(ACC)
Big 12 Tier i
(Big 12)
Big Ten Tier I
(Big Ten)
Pac-12 Tier I
(Pac-12)
SEC Tier I
(SEC)
Boston College
Baylor
Illinois
Arizona
Alabama
Clemson
Iowa State
Indiana
Arizona State
Arkansas
Duke
Kansas
Iowa
California
Auburn
Florida State
Kansas State
Maryland
Colorado
Florida
Georgia Tech
Oklahoma
Michigan
Oregon
Georgia
Louisville
Oklahoma State
Michigan State
Oregon State
Kentucky
Miami
TCU
Minnesota
Stanford
LSU
NC State
Texas
Nebraska
UCLA
Mississippi State
North Carolina
Texas Tech
Northwestern
USC
Missouri
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Ohio State
Utah
Ole Miss
Pittsburgh
Penn State
Washington
South Carolina
Syracuse
Purdue
Washington State
Tennessee
Virginia
Rutgers
Texas A&M
Virginia Tech
Wisconsin
Vanderbilt
Wake Forest
Geographically, these leagues work out. If we base each tier on merit, then there are awkward relationships later -- there's no Western team in Tier IV -- but it works here. And since there are 10 FBS conferences, that fills the top two tiers.
ACC Tier II
(AAC)
Big 12 Tier II
(Conference USA)
Big Ten Tier II
(MAC)
Pac-12 Tier II
(MWC)
SEC Tier II
(Sun Belt)
Army
Charlotte
Akron
Air Force
Appalachian State
Central Florida
Florida Atlantic
Ball State
Boise State
Arkansas State
Cincinnati
Florida International
Bowling Green
BYU
Georgia Southern
Connecticut
Louisiana Tech
Buffalo
Colorado State
Georgia State
East Carolina
Marshall
Central Michigan
Fresno State
Idaho
Houston
Middle Tennessee
Eastern Michigan
Hawaii
New Mexico State
Memphis
North Texas
Kent State
Nevada
South Alabama
Navy
Old Dominion
Massachusetts
New Mexico
Texas State
SMU
Rice
Miami-OH
San Diego State
Troy
South Florida
Southern Miss
Northern Illinois
San Jose State
UL-Lafayette
Temple
UTEP
Ohio
UNLV
UL-Monroe
Tulane
UTSA
Toledo
Utah State
Tulsa
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
Wyoming
2014 promotion battles, if we give the higher tiers home advantage: Memphis at Wake Forest, Marshall at Iowa State, Northern Illinois at Purdue, Boise State at Colorado, and Georgia Southern at Vanderbilt. Four or five road teams would probably win spots in Tier I.
Since this is based on merit, to determine the tiers for FCS and Division II, I'm using a scoring system based on 10 years of playoff results. If a team currently in your conference made the first round, you get one point. Second round = two. Et cetera. With five-round structures for FCS and Division II, that means the winner gets six points, the runner-up gets five, and so on.
For FCS, you have Appalachian State earning 38 points, North Dakota State getting 27, New Hampshire 24, etc. By current conferences, you get this:
FCS playoff points:
Colonial 94
Missouri Valley 76
Big Sky 63
Southland 35
Ohio Valley 25
Southern 21
Patriot 17
MEAC 13
Big South 12
Northeast 5
Pioneer 2
Ivy 0
SWAC 0
The top five get Tier III spots.
ACC Tier III
(Colonial)
Big 12 Tier III
(Southland)
Big Ten Tier III
(Missouri Valley)
Pac-12 Tier III
(Big Sky)
SEC Tier III
(Ohio Valley)
Albany
Abilene Christian
Illinois State
Cal Poly
Austin Peay
Delaware
Central Arkansas
Indiana State
Eastern Washington
Eastern Illinois
Elon
Houston Baptist
Missouri State
Idaho State
Eastern Kentucky
James Madison
Incarnate Word
North Dakota State
Montana
Jacksonville State
Maine
Lamar
Northern Iowa
Montana State
Murray State
New Hampshire
McNeese State
South Dakota
North Dakota
SE Missouri State
Rhode Island
Nicholls State
South Dakota State
Northern Arizona
Tennessee State
Richmond
Northwestern State
Southern Illinois
Northern Colorado
Tennessee Tech
Stony Brook
Sam Houston State
Western Illinois
Portland State
UT Martin
Towson
SE Louisiana
Youngstown State
Sacramento State
Villanova
Stephen F. Austin
Southern Utah
William & Mary
UC Davis
Weber State
Battles for placement in 2015's Tier II: New Hampshire at UConn, Sam Houston State at Southern Miss, North Dakota State at Eastern Michigan, Eastern Washington at UNLV, Jacksonville State at Georgia State. Again, all five road teams might win.
The next five conferences are the Southern, Patriot, MEAC, Big South, and Northeast. Almost every member of those conferences is in the Eastern time zone. We'll make a slight change: bump the Pioneer over the Northeast and give the Pioneer to the Pac-12, since it at least has San Diego and some Central teams.
ACC Tier IV
(Patriot)
Big 12 Tier IV
(MEAC)
Big Ten Tier IV
(Big South)
Pac-12 Tier IV
(Pioneer)
SEC Tier IV
(Southern)
Bucknell
Bethune-Cookman
Charleston Southern
Butler
Chattanooga
Colgate
Delaware State
Coastal Carolina
Campbell
Furman
Fordham
Florida A&M
Gardner-Webb
Davidson
Mercer
Georgetown
Hampton
Liberty
Dayton
Samford
Holy Cross
Howard
Monmouth
Drake
The Citadel
Lafayette
Morgan State
Presbyterian
Jacksonville
VMI
Lehigh
NC Central
Marist
Western Carolina
Norfolk State
Morehead State
Wofford
North Carolina A&T
San Diego
Savannah State
Stetson
South Carolina State
Valparaiso
That's Fordham at Elon, Morgan State at Nicholls State, Liberty at South Dakota, Jacksonville at UC Davis, Chattanooga at Murray State for the right to play in Tier III next season. According to last year's Sagarin rankings, all five road teams were better, and only Morgan State-Nicholls State and Jacksonville-UC Davis are close.
And now to mix Division II conferences with those last two FCS conferences.
Division II playoff points:
Mid America 75
Gulf South 73
Pennsylvania State 70
Great Lakes 60
Northern Sun 49
Lone Star 30
South Atlantic 29
Rocky Mountain 25
Mountain East 24
CIAA 18
Northeast Ten 18
SIAC 13
Great American 9
Great Northwest 7
Great Lakes 3
ACC Tier V
(Northeast)
Big 12 Tier V
(SWAC)
Big Ten Tier V
(PSAC)
Pac-12 Tier V
(Mid America)
SEC Tier V
(Gulf South)
Bryant
Alabama A&M
Bloomsburg
Central Missouri State
Delta State
Central Conn. St.
Alabama State
California (PA)
Central Oklahoma
Florida Tech
Duquesne
Alcorn State
Cheyney
Fort Hays State
Mississippi College
Robert Morris
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Clarion
Lindenwood
North Alabama
Sacred Heart
Grambling State
East Stroudsburg
Missouri Southern
Shorter
Saint Francis
Jackson State
Edinboro
Missouri Western
Valdosta State
Wagner
Miss. Valley State
Gannon
Nebraska-Kearney
West Alabama
Prairie View A&M
Indiana (PA)
Northeastern State
West Georgia
Southern U.
Kutztown
NW Missouri State
Texas Southern
Lock Haven
Pittsburg State
Mercyhurst
Washburn
Millersville
Seton Hill
Shippensburg
Slippery Rock
West Chester
(If the Ivy League participated, it would be in Tier V. For simplicity, we'll say the league abstains. Harvard moving to the Patriot League is too strange to think about. We'll include the SWAC, which also abstains from FCS tournament participation. That adds an awkward SWAC-to-Northern Sun connection, but we'll live with it.)
ACC Tier VI
(Mountain East)
Big 12 Tier VI
(Northern Sun)
Big Ten Tier VI
(GLIAC)
Pac-12 Tier VI
(Lone Star)
SEC Tier VI
(South Atlantic)
Charleston (WV)
Augustana (SD)
Ashland
Angelo State
Brevard College
Concord
Bemidji State
Ferris State
Eastern New Mexico
Carson-Newman
Fairmont State
Concordia-St. Paul
Findlay
McMurry
Catawba
Glenville State
Minnesota State
Grand Valley State
Midwestern State
Lenoir-Rhyne
Notre Dame College
Minn. State-Moorhead
Hillsdale
Tarleton State
Mars Hill
Shepherd
Minnesota-Crookston
Lake Erie College
Tex. A&M-Commerce
Newberry
Urbana
Minnesota-Duluth
Malone
Tex. A&M-Kingsville
Tusculum
UVA-Wise
Minot State
Michigan Tech
West Texas A&M
Wingate
West Liberty
Northern State
Northern Michigan
WV State
Sioux Falls
Northwood (MI)
WV Wesleyan
SW Minnesota State
Ohio Dominican
St. Cloud State
Saginaw Valley
University of Mary
Tiffin
Upper Iowa
Walsh
Wayne State (NE)
Wayne State (MI)
Winona State
We fill in the final tier by cramming seven conferences into five spots. The promotion candidate in the two-conference regions could be determined by rankings or a head-to-head.
ACC Tier VII
(SIAC)
Big 12 Tier VII
(Great American)
Big Ten Tier VII
(Northeast 10)
Pac-12 Tier VII
(Rocky Mountain)
SEC Tier VII
(CIAA)
Albany State (GA)
Arkansas Tech
American Int'l
Adams State
Bowie State
Central State
Arkansas-Monticello
Assumption
Black Hills State
Chowan
Clark Atlanta
East Central
Bentley
Chadron State
Elizabeth City State
Fort Valley State
Harding
LIU Post
Colorado Mesa
Fayetteville State
Kentucky State
Henderson State
Merrimack
Colorado Mines
Johnson C. Smith
Lane
NW Oklahoma State
New Haven
CSU-Pueblo
Lincoln (PA)
Miles
Ouachita Baptist
Pace
Fort Lewis
Livingstone
Morehouse
SE Oklahoma State
Southern Conn. St.
N.M. Highlands
Shaw
Paine
Southern Arkansas
St. Anselm
Western New Mexico
St. Augustine's
Stillman
Southern Nazarene
Stonehill
Western State
Virginia State
Tuskegee
SW Oklahoma State
Virginia Union
Winston-Salem
(Great Lakes)
(Great Northwest)
Indianapolis
Azusa Pacific
Lincoln (MO)
Central Washington
McKendree
Dixie State
Missouri S&T
Humboldt State
Quincy
Simon Fraser
Southwest Baptist
South Dakota Mines
St. Joseph's (IN)
Western Oregon
Truman State
William Jewell
Worth trying?
Relegation scratches so many itches. I love this sport's silliness, its school-to-school traditions, the 50 million approaches you can take to winning. But the salaries, obnoxious facilities, and [insert any quote from Texas athletic director Steve Patterson] have soured me. So welcome to my fantasy world.
This isn't a world without drawbacks. The thought of sending players to play for another school violates every concept of "student-athlete." Beyond that, there could be negative consequences to the game itself.
So much of what we love about college football was derived from a lack of fear when it comes to losing. Kentucky happily hired human air raid siren Hal Mumme in the 1990s, in part because the Wildcats were already finishing at or near the bottom of the SEC standings. There was no harm in trying an experimental offensive style when the downside was basically maintaining status quo. But if the Wildcats had to worry about getting dropped to the Sun Belt, they might have elected to play it safe with an endless selection of Bill Currys, hoping simply to finish eighth and stay in the SEC. [...]
"What happens is that the lower 13 then hire coaches that aren't quite as potentially good, staff that aren't quite as innovative, chairmen who are more risk-averse. And the whole thing kind of conspires to become, not an anti-'Moneyball,' but very conventional ball, [said 'The Numbers Game' co-author Chris Anderson]."
The Eastern Washingtons would still have every incentive to get funky on offense. But if the financial split between the top tier and everybody else gets too large, staying in the middle of Tier 1 becomes a bigger goal than risking to win big. You could end up with more 2014 Iowas and fewer 1997 Kentuckys.
Still, college football is too unwieldy to become homogenous. We'll still have fun.
How to convince the power schools
Knowing how long it takes to initiate change in college football, let's acknowledge that if this were to happen, it would begin somewhere around 2060. Let's also acknowledge that it isn't going to happen.
You would need to figure out things like scholarship differences in order to even make it worth voting on. You would then need power programs to vote against their short-term self-interest, which never happens in any vote on anything.
So you'd need a legitimate college commissioner. How would that person make the case to the power conferences?
Money
Schools in the bottoms of power conferences would never agree to risk their money flow.
But you could create a less risky environment. Maybe you promise original power-conference members a minimum percentage of the big-money pot even if they fall. Even if a Purdue is languishing in Tier II or Tier III, it is still making enough money that it wouldn't have to cut other sports.
This is unfair to programs starting below the top tier, but ... well ... the current system is unfair.
One last chance
We'd agree to winner-take-all promotion matches, giving Vanderbilt one last chance to stay up by beating Georgia Southern. Put these games on the higher-tier teams' fields. Put the money from these games into the higher-tier conference's pot.
And these games would make money. If you watch April Premier League matches between the 16th-place team and the 19th-place team, you see intensity like games with title stakes.
Rivalry assurance
You would have to create flexible non-conference scheduling. If Indiana or Purdue gets sent down to the MAC, Indiana and Purdue have to keep playing. Same in the lower tiers: Lehigh and Lafayette, Montana and Montana State.
Perhaps you only schedule two non-conference games per year ahead of time, leaving one or two open slots until a scheduling frenzy in January. Maybe you mandate eight-game conference schedules for all leagues so that everybody has four slots available.
Football only ... or not!
For a school like Kansas -- a basketball powerhouse in danger of playing football games in the Southland Conference -- you assure football standing won't affect basketball standing.
You could create a separate structure for basketball, giving programs like the Jayhawks a chance to make up revenue on schools like Clemson or, this year, Missouri.
Junior teams
In some European leagues, teams have the option of using junior teams in lower leagues. VfB Stuttgart II and Mainz II play in the third level of German soccer. Bayern München II and Nürnberg II play in the fourth.
Instead of having your young hotshots on the practice squad or trying to loan them out, you get development time in your system, with coaches you employ, against teams like Memmingen and TSV Buchbach, the lower-FCS teams of the German professional system. It offers a quality opponent for Memmingen, but it also delivers a clear value for the top teams.
This could work in a couple of different ways in college football.
Junior varsity teams. Auburn II in the SoCon. Oklahoma II in the Southland. UConn II in the Northeast. You designate who's on your JV team (with flexibility for moving up to the senior team midseason), and they play a conference schedule. This is more sensible than "redshirt all freshmen," allowing freshmen to a) play the sport they are given scholarships to play while b) playing in a lower-pressure environment that allows them to acclimate to campus.
If this requires a larger allotment of scholarships, that's on the table.
Affiliations. Georgia can send 10 players down to Valdosta State for a season. UCLA sends 10 to the University of San Diego. This creates a stumbling block with students attending universities they chose, but perhaps there is a solution, given enough time to spitball.
BTW, we've been doing this for years. Here's the 2005-2014 simulation.
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Each year, you find more "What if college football had relegation ..." pieces on the Internet. Just remember SB Nation did it first-ish, and we definitely do it best.
We update a years-long simulation, based in part on the Sagarin ratings, which rate FBS and FCS teams together. And in what is now a 10-season simulation, we get a crystal-clear idea of how this would work.
This alignment of the tiers is different than above, and real-life conference realignment occurred in the middle of this. It's a mess. It's beautiful.
Catch up here: 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 and 2014
2015 ACC column
Tier 1
Cincinnati, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, UCF, Virginia, Virginia Tech
After 10 years, the ACC might have the highest floor. Either Virginia or a damn decent UCF would have gone down, and since UVA ranked higher in F/+, we'll send the Knights to the Big East. Or AAC. Whatever.
ACC Tier II: Big East/AAC
Boston College, Connecticut, Maine, Navy, NC State, Syracuse, Temple, USF, Wake Forest
UConn nudges Maine by five spots in the Sagarin ratings. Steve Addazio gets BC back to the top.
ACC Tier III: Colonial
Army, Delaware, James Madison, Lehigh, Lafayette, New Hampshire, Old Dominion, Richmond, Stony Brook, Towson, Villanova, William & Mary
Promoted from Patriot: Albany
2015 Big 12 column
Tier I
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech
That Iowa State was up and WVU was in Conference USA was a timing issue. The Cyclones were lucky ... until 2014.
Big 12 Tier II: Conference USA
Cal Poly, Central Arkansas, East Carolina, Kansas, Louisiana Tech, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Rice, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, UAB, UTEP, West Virginia
WVU's sojourn into the bowels of Tier II coincides with the emergence of the best Marshall in a while. I guess we just delete UAB, huh? :(
Big 12 Tier III: Southland
Abilene Christian, Florida Atlantic, Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Memphis, New Orleans, Sam Houston State, SE Louisiana, Stephen F. Austin, Texas State, UTSA
Promoted from Pioneer: Florida International
2015 Big Ten column
Tier I
Bowling Green, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, Toledo, Wisconsin
We stuck Maryland and Rutgers in the second tier, making them earn their way into the top. They've yet to do so. But with the demotion of BGSU in favor of Minnesota, you've got nine of 12 original members back in the B1G.
Big Ten Tier II: MAC
Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Eastern Illinois, Illinois, Indiana, Kent State, Maryland, Minnesota, Northern Iowa, Ohio, Purdue, Rutgers, Southern Illinois
Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue have barely done anything worthy of Tier 1 in a while, and the lasting additions of NDSU, Toledo, and NIU make the Big Ten look better.
Big Ten Tier III: Missouri Valley
Eastern Kentucky, Illinois State, Miami (Ohio), Missouri State, South Dakota State, Tennessee State, UMass, Western Illinois, Western Michigan, Youngstown State
Promoted from Ohio Valley: Indiana State
2015 Pac-12 column
Tier I
Arizona, Arizona State, Boise State, BYU, Nevada, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Utah, Washington
The Pac-12 is just vicious. Nevada and Oregon State were the weak links, and Nevada just got traded for one of the best defenses in the country, Utah State.
Pac-12 Tier II: Mountain West
California, Colorado, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, Washington State
Because of realignment sending WAC teams in any number of directions and the Pac-10 turning into the Pac-12, the Mountain West only has six teams. At some point, there should be some sort of mass promotion from the WAC to the MWC and so on.
Pac-12 Tier III: WAC
Air Force, Colorado State, Eastern Washington, Hawaii, Montana, Montana State, Northern Arizona, San Jose State, UNLV, Wyoming
Promoted from Big Sky: Idaho State (and not Idaho, New Mexico, or New Mexico State)
2015 SEC column
Tier I
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, UL-Lafayette, Vanderbilt
More often than not, the Sun Belt winner goes up to Tier 1, then goes right back down. Appalachian State stayed up for a while a few years back, but it's still big that UL-Lafayette stays up for a second year, even though it's because Vandy, now on its second Sun Belt trip, fell apart.
SEC Tier II: Sun Belt
Membership: Arkansas State, Appalachian State, Furman, Georgia Southern, Kentucky, South Alabama, Troy, UL-Monroe
Georgia Southern, SEC team. The world is kind and just.
SEC Tier III: Southern
Chattanooga, Coastal Carolina, Elon, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Western Kentucky, Wofford
Promoted from Big South: Charleston Southern