2016-10-28



15 of 20 sites published. Red Bulls edge Dallas for first in the final ranking.

15 of 20 sites published for Week 33 - Final Rankings!  Sports Illustrated only did a partial ranking with the playoff teams.

Here's a reminder of the Power Ranking "Guidelines":

"If two teams played tomorrow, given their current injury concerns, form, and other considerations, who is likely to win on a neutral field? This list is designed to tell you who we feel is most likely to win that match-up. All things being equal, who is the best team going forward, based on what we know now?"
-Richard Farley, NBC Sports ProSoccerTalk.  3/11/14

Sites Used:

Who Scored (whoscored.com)

Jeff Sagarin (sagarin.com/sports/soccer.htm)

Sports Club Stats (www.sportsclubstats.com/USA/MLS.html)

Sports Illustrated (www.soccer.si.com)

ESPN (espnfc.us/major-league-soccer) *No ranking for Wk 33

SoccerAmerica (socceramerica.com)

Major League Soccer (www.mlssoccer.com/news/power-rankings)

The Mane Land (themaneland.com)

Soccer By Ives (sbisoccer.com/sbi-mls-power-rankings) *No ranking for Wk 33

Reddit user/FlyingCarsArePlanes (User analytic ranking) *No ranking for Wk 33

Reddit r/MLS (reddit.com/r/mls) *No ranking for Wk 33

MLS Fantasy Boss (mlsfantasyboss.com)

The Score (thescore.com/mls/news)

Power Rankings & More (powerrankingsandmore.com/tag/mls)

Seattle Times (seattletimes.com/author/matt-pentz)

Hot Footy (hotfooty.com/major-league-soccer) *No ranking for Wk 33

Sportify (sportify.io/category/analysis)

Black & Red United (blackandredunited.com)

CSN Chicago (csnchicago.com/chicago-fire - bi-weekly)

Inonit.com (inotit.com)

You may notice several 'team specific' sites used; yes they will at times be a bit more biased for/against certain teams, as such the averages use the Olympic Method of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and averaging the rest to compensate for possible bias.  The 'analytic' sites that are based on numbers make up a control group since they are based on performance and/or results rather than opinion.  Each week I'll list the sites closest and furthest from average to show which are more biased than others.

As with previous years, if you know of a site that I have not listed, please let me know in the comments below and I'll add it!

Weekly Power Ranking Averages

Using the "Olympic" method of dropping the highest / lowest scores, and averaging the rest.

Wk33

Wk32

Wk30

Team

Wk33
Avg

Wk32
Avg

Wk30
Avg

Worst

Best

1

1

2

New York RB

1.54

1.69

1.93

3

1

2

1

1

Dallas

1.69

1.69

1.79

4

1

3

3

4

Colorado

3.92

3.63

4.07

8

2

4

4

3

New York FC

4.54

5.31

3.71

8

2

5

7

6

Los Angeles

5.31

5.44

6.29

8

1

6

6

5

Toronto

5.54

5.40

5.07

9

3

7

5

8

D. C. U.

6.31

5.38

7.00

10

3

8

8

7

Seattle

7.31

7.94

6.64

10

4

9

11

12

Kansas City

8.92

10.60

11.21

10

7

10

9

9

Montreal

11.08

10.44

10.43

16

9

11

10

11

Salt Lake

11.38

10.56

11.00

17

7

12

12

13

Portland

12.75

11.06

13.43

19

9

13

13

9

Philadelphia

13.23

12.88

10.43

18

8

14

14

13

New England

13.92

14.63

13.43

19

10

15

16

19

Orlando

14.00

15.88

18.36

16

10

16

15

15

Columbus

15.92

15.50

14.86

19

12

17

19

18

Vancouver

16.08

18.27

18.36

20

14

18

18

17

Houston

17.83

17.69

16.14

19

15

18

17

16

San Jose

17.83

16.80

16.00

20

15

20

20

20

Chicago

19.92

19.33

19.86

20

14

Largest Rise: NYCFC, LAG, SKC, VAN +2

Largest Fall: D.C., PHI -3

Season Ending Average

This is the final weekly average for the year.

Rank

Team

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

1

Dallas

2.73

4.64

6.35

8.58

12.88

2

Los Angeles

3.75

4.51

5.23

5.15

8.39

3

Colorado

5.25

17.38

11.54

9.88

12.85

4

Toronto

6.21

9.75

8.97

16.83

17.85

5

Salt Lake

7.01

12.43

4.12

4.58

3.70

6

Montreal

7.52

15.06

17.54

5.17

13.99

7

New York RB

8.11

4.68

10.05

6.52

5.58

8

Philadelphia

8.66

18.07

11.85

10.45

15.19

9

Kansas City

9.12

6.35

5.64

4.48

3.07

10

New York FC

9.42

15.47

11

Portland

9.78

9.45

11.64

5.83

15.88

12

San Jose

10.94

11.14

15.20

12.38

2.61

13

Orlando

13.10

14.21

14

Vancouver

13.65

5.09

7.98

10.33

8.95

15

Seattle

13.75

6.07

2.86

9.38

5.07

16

D. C.

13.91

5.91

7.49

17.24

7.45

17

New England

15.45

9.50

9.66

12.52

14.78

18

Columbus

16.31

8.75

9.60

12.81

11.70

19

Houston

16.44

13.81

12.77

7.71

6.75

20

Chicago

18.80

17.71

15.54

14.35

7.91

Site Evaluations

Each site's ranking is compared to the weekly averages above.  The best and worst # of matches is indicated.  Team bias column shows what team the site shows the highest average for/against (including Preseason ranking).

Site

#
Exact

1
off

2
off

3
off

4
off

5+
off

Worst

most
bias vs

most
bias for

Who Scored

5

3

5

4

1

2

CHI

VAN -5.32

CHI +5.38

Jeff Sagarin

5

6

5

3

1

0

NER

NYFC -2.43

HOU +2.50

Sports Club Stats

8

11

1

0

0

0

CLB

POR -4.07

NYFC +2.27

Sports Illustrated

6

1

4

0

1

8

only PO
teams ranked

COL -1.89

SEA +2.75

ESPN

NA

LAG -2.48

POR +2.75

Soccer America

4

7

4

2

3

0

3@+/-4

NYRB -1.02

CHI +1.55

Major League Soccer

6

11

1

2

0

0

POR/LAG

LAG -1.71

TFC +1.82

The Mane Land

7

8

2

3

0

0

3@+/-3

PHI -2.43

VAN +2.20

Soccer By Ives

NA

DCU -1.55

SEA +1.68

Reddit u/FlyingCarsArePlanes

NA

RSL -2.93

CLB +2.84

Reddit r/MLS

NA

DCU -1.96

VAN +1.13

MLS Fantasy Boss

3

8

2

5

2

0

CLB/NYFC

PHI -3.60

POR +5.71

The Score

4

9

4

2

1

0

RSL

COL -1.58

VAN +2.17

Power Rankings & More

7

9

4

0

0

0

4@+/-2

TFC -2.02

NER +1.98

Seattle Times

7

10

2

0

0

1

POR

NYRB -0.96

VAN +1.75

Hot Footy

NA

NYRB -2.58

RSL +1.51

Sportify

3

5

1

5

1

5

RSL

PHI -3.51

NYRB +3.68

Black & Red United

3

13

2

2

0

0

POR/VAN

TFC -2.84

COL +3.15

CSN Chicago

9

8

1

1

1

0

SEA

MTL -1.63

RSL +2.63

In On It

2

6

8

2

1

1

NER

NER -4.19

NYRB +5.20

Most Accurate Site: (best Exact, with 1 off as tiebreaker) CSN Chicago with 9 exact matches.

Least Accurate Site: (most 5+ with 4 and 3 off as tiebreaker): Sportify with 5 off by 5+.

Site with Worst Bias VS:  Who Scored with VAN 5.32 from avg.

Site with Worst Bias FOR: MLS Fantasy Boss with POR 5.71 places from avg.

5 Year Average

Season ending power rank averaged over the last 5 years (2 years for ORL & NYCFC).

Team

5 Yr
Avg

Wk
32

Wk
30

Wk
29

Wk
28

Wk
27

LA Galaxy

5.41

5.40

5.38

5.36

5.36

5.36

Sporting Kansas City

5.73

5.73

5.71

5.70

5.70

5.69

Real Salt Lake

6.37

6.34

6.28

6.25

6.24

6.23

New York Red Bulls

6.99

7.03

7.12

7.17

7.21

7.25

FC Dallas

7.04

7.04

7.05

7.05

7.06

7.07

Seattle Sounders

7.43

7.47

7.55

7.60

7.64

7.66

Vancouver Whitecaps

9.20

9.19

9.12

9.09

9.06

9.02

D.C. United

10.40

10.44

10.56

10.61

10.64

10.66

San Jose Earthquakes

10.45

10.41

10.34

10.30

10.26

10.22

Portland Timbers

10.52

10.50

10.47

10.44

10.42

10.43

Colorado Rapids

11.38

11.39

11.41

11.42

11.42

11.42

Houston Dynamo

11.50

11.49

11.48

11.48

11.49

11.49

Columbus Crew SC

11.83

11.84

11.86

11.87

11.87

11.86

Montreal Impact

11.86

11.83

11.79

11.77

11.72

11.67

Toronto FC

11.92

11.93

11.94

11.95

11.98

12.01

New England Revolution

12.38

12.39

12.38

12.40

12.40

12.42

New York City FC

12.45

12.53

12.68

12.78

12.88

12.96

Philadelphia Union

12.84

12.82

12.78

12.77

12.76

12.75

Orlando City

13.66

13.64

13.53

13.43

13.34

13.28

Chicago Fire

14.86

14.85

14.84

14.84

14.83

14.82

FIFA-esque Power Ranking

The Weighted Average is calculated using a variation of the "FIFA method" with the current year counting for 100%, and previous years counting for a decreasing amount.

Team

Wk
33

Wk
32

Wk
30

Week
29

Week
28

Week
27

Week
26

LA Galaxy

83.60

83.64

83.73

83.82

83.85

83.82

83.79

FC Dallas

80.82

80.78

80.77

80.73

80.70

80.67

80.65

Sporting Kansas City

77.93

77.93

78.03

78.10

78.09

78.13

78.18

Real Salt Lake

75.50

75.63

75.92

76.07

76.14

76.21

76.22

New York Red Bulls

75.49

75.29

74.84

74.60

74.38

74.19

73.99

Seattle Sounders

72.68

72.47

72.07

71.81

71.62

71.49

71.41

Vancouver Whitecaps

68.38

68.45

68.94

68.94

69.09

69.26

69.40

Portland Timbers

66.10

66.19

66.35

66.48

66.56

66.51

66.52

Toronto FC

65.41

65.39

65.27

65.27

65.11

64.95

64.76

D.C. United

64.67

64.45

63.88

63.62

63.47

63.37

63.26

New York City FC *

63.16

63.00

62.70

62.49

62.30

62.13

61.96

Colorado Rapids

62.30

62.26

62.16

62.11

62.11

62.08

62.03

San Jose Earthquakes

60.79

61.00

61.35

61.54

61.78

61.97

62.20

Orlando City *

60.61

60.65

60.87

61.06

61.24

61.36

61.38

Montreal Impact

59.69

59.82

60.02

60.13

60.38

60.62

60.77

Columbus Crew SC

59.29

59.28

59.18

59.12

59.09

59.14

59.26

New England Revolution

58.80

58.75

58.79

58.72

58.70

58.61

58.63

Philadelphia Union

57.17

57.31

57.48

57.55

57.59

57.64

57.67

Houston Dynamo

56.01

56.06

56.09

56.09

56.03

56.05

56.10

Chicago Fire

44.49

44.49

44.54

44.58

44.62

44.66

44.65

* Expansion teams points adjusted to compensate - (median of 9 for missing years)

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