View of the field at Citi Field as taken by my iPhone during the World Series
A year ago, I felt heartbroken for the Kansas City Royals when they stranded the game tying run at third against Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants in Game 7 of the World Series. Their fans had waited so long to make the playoffs again and got so close to winning a championship. Moreover, I was among the skeptics that thought the Royals were a fluke in 2014 and just caught lightning in a bottle. Obviously, I know they were a good team because they advanced to the World Series and probably would have won it last year without a legendary postseason performance by Bumgarner. However, I did not think they were a great team. I wondered whether their lack of a true ace in the starting rotation and historically lack of power would catch up to them this season. I even had questions about their greatest strength, their bullpen. Their top three relievers last year (Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and closer Greg Holland) were unbelievably dominant. On the other hand, dominant relief pitching can be very inconsistent and unpredictable from season to season. I have seen plenty of instances when a reliever was great one year and mediocre the following year. In fact, Holland was very average this season before his need for Tommy John surgery explained his poor performance. Moreover, it is very difficult to advance through the playoffs for a return trip to the World Series anyway. For these reasons, I assumed that they missed their one opportunity to win Kansas City a second championship. Furthermore, it looked like the Royals would be quickly eliminated in the playoffs this year when they were facing elimination and down 6-2 in the 8th inning of Game 4 of the ALDS against the Astros in Houston. Instead, they showed their guts when they rallied to win that game and the series. It is the signature moment in a Royals postseason that produced a record amount of comeback wins that silenced all critics. After the Astros, they dispatched the Blue Jays and their juggernaut offense in 6 in the ALCS to advance to the World Series.
On the other hand, the Mets have been rebuilding their team in recent years. They started the season with the hope of top prospects on the verge of making a Major League impact and the return of stud starter, Matt Harvey, from Tommy John surgery. If everything broke right, they might make a run at the playoffs. A World Series berth at the beginning of this year seemed like a remote fantasy. They are ahead of schedule for various reasons. First, their promising young pitchers came along faster than expected. Jacob deGrom built on to a strong second half in 2014 when he won the NL Rookie of the Year and emerged as a top starter in the NL this season. Despite some expected inconsistencies after Tommy John, Harvey had a remarkable comeback in his first season back from the surgery. Noah Syndergaard also emerged as a legitimate future superstar with a maturity and pedigree that matches deGrom and Harvey as well as raw stuff that could make him the best of all of them. Lefty Steven Matz also showed he could be special although he was limited due to injuries. In addition, Jeurys Familia emerged as one of the top closers in baseball. While the pitching performed at an elite level, their offense was one of the worst in baseball in the first half of the season. Midseason acquisitions, headlined by the trade for Yoenis Cespedes, and the call up of super prospect Michael Conforto transformed an anemic offense into the best in the NL during the second half. They survived a 5 games NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers and steamrolled the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS by riding power pitching and a red hot Daniel Murphy to advance to the World Series.
Going into the World Series, the matchup was clear. The Mets had a significant advantage in starting pitching. On the other hand, the Royals had the better overall team. They had far superior defense and team speed. Next, they are the best contact hitting team in baseball compared to the Mets reliance on the homerun. The Royals also have the deepest bullpen in baseball with the two studs at the end, set up man Kelvin Herrera and closer Wade Davis. While Jeurys Familia was the best closer in the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Mets just could not match the quality of depth in the Royals pen and really did not have reliable set up men who could shut down the Royals’ tough lineup. This World Series was a unique one for me. I am not a Mets fan but I bought a ticket plan with them this year so I had an opportunity to buy a full postseason plan. I went to Game 3 of the NLDS, Game 1 of the NLCS, and all three games of the World Series played in New York. They are also the first World Series games I have ever attended. I definitely got into this playoff run by the Mets. The games were the first playoff games at Citifield and the atmosphere was absolutely electrifying. Moreover, I have friends my age who are Mets fan. We are not old enough to remember the Mets winning a World Series so I definitely wanted the Mets to pull it off so they had one.
The Royals are certainly an excellent team and a worthy World Series champion. They showed unbelievable grit and resolve by returning to the World Series and winning it this year. Moreover, they did it with improbable comebacks after improbable comebacks. Their ability to make contact and foul balls off neutralized the Mets superior starting pitching a bit. In addition, the Royals starters stepped up and kept their team in the game. Of course, the Royals bullpen dominated again. Ned Yost had an army of dependable relievers compared to just one stud at Terry Collin’s disposal. Finally, the combination of contact and speed completely exploited the Mets biggest weakest: the defense, especially the infield defense. The Royals simply were not a good matchup for the Mets. The Mets catcher, Travis D’Arnaud, does not throw out runners well. The Royals stole bases at will. As such, many walks and singles became automatic doubles. Since the Royals put a lot of balls in play, a lot of ground balls squeezed through a Mets infield that has no range. Even when they got to them, they booted the balls. Contact and speed put way too much pressure on the Mets infield defense. Even though the Mets starting pitching was the primary reason they still had leads late going into the 8th inning in 3 of the 4 games they lost, the Royals knew they would win all the close games because of their bullpen and relentless lineup.
Despite the series ending in a short 5 games, 3 of the games were very competitive. It was the first World Series that a team blew 3 games when they had a lead after the 8th inning. Of course, a ton of credit goes to the Royals who have established a reputation as the comeback kids during the last two postseasons. Nevertheless, the Mets made a lot of mistakes that leave their fans heartbroken and feeling it was the series that got away. I had a live view of those blunders as I went to all 3 games in New York. I would say that the Mets could have won this series despite their flaws. However, it is unfair to the Royals to say that the Mets would or should have won. The Royals are too good and still would have had the last two games of the series at home in Kansas City even if the series went longer. The tone of the series was set in Game 1. On the very first pitch the Mets threw, their suspect defense reared its head. Instead of centerfielder Yoenis Cespedes making a good catch on a liner by Alcides Escobar, the ball hit off his foot and rolled for an inside the park homerun. Regardless, the Mets recovered and eventually took a 3-1 lead. Unfortunately, ace Matt Harvey immediately gave it up in the bottom of the inning. Again, the Mets took the lead with the help of an Eric Hosmer error and delivered a lead to their closer. Familia had been lights out in the first two rounds of the playoffs. He was not even allowing hits. With one out in the 9th, he made a terrible mistake trying to quick pitch Alex Gordon. You need to give credit to Gordon for being ready to jump on it and homer to dead center. However, it was very poor judgment from a closer who is too good to rely on trickery. It was the moment that changed the tone of the series. The Mets were rolling in the postseason and it appeared their formula was working again. However, the Royals beat one of their aces and closer in one night. Ultimately, an error in the 14th by Wright to lead off the inning led to the game winning run. Sadly for the Mets, Game 1 was a precursor of things to come later in the series. It was no surprise that they dropped Game 2. Jacob deGrom has been their best pitcher and had won all three of his previous postseason starts. However, he was clearly tiring at the end of the season and it was understandable that there might be a hangover effect for the Mets the next night after a crushing Game 1 loss.
Nevertheless, the Mets still had their chances to change the tone of the series again. Noah Syndergaard got the New York crowd pumped up with an up and in pitch to Alcides Escobar on the first pitch of the game, a strong start, and an assist from his offense to take game 3. Steven Matz followed with another strong start and the Mets took a one run lead into the 8th inning of game 4. It was the inning that finished any realistic hope the Mets might have had for winning the series. They have no one to blame but themselves. First, Terry Collins called on setup man Tyler Clippard. He has not been the same since he got hurt during the season. My friend sitting next to me and I knew that the inning would be the key to the game and we were weary that Clippard was in the game. He got the first out but then walked the next two batters. After the game, Collins noted that he did not want to use Familia for 6 outs since he was afraid he would not be available for Game 5. It is a terrible decision. In the postseason, you need to ensure you win the current game today and worry about the next game tomorrow. In addition, he should have never brought Familia in the Game 4 in a blowout if he had those reservations. Collins’s decision made no sense. Regardless, Familia got the ground ball he needed. Unfortunately for the Mets, postseason hero Daniel Murphy completely booted a pretty straightforward grounder to second that tied the game and led to two more. I had a great view of the play from my seat at field level near the right field foul pole. It was not an overly difficult groundball and should have been fielded for an out at first. The error looked even worse when I got home and watched the replays on television. While Familia would have still had to get another out with runners at second and third, it would have been a much less stressful situation than 1st and 3rd, one out, and the game tied already. The Mets rallied in the 9th but Cespedes got doubled off first on an obvious soft lineout in a bonehead play. The Mets shot themselves in the foot and the Royals are too good to give them breaks like the Mets did.
Nevertheless, Matt Harvey had the opportunity to pitch the Mets back to Kansas City where they would have had two top pitchers waiting to start Games 6 and 7. Harvey was absolutely dominating. It was the best pitching performance I have ever seen in person. The only other game that comes close for me is Cliff Lee’s 8 innings of shutout ball and 13 strikeouts against the New York Yankees in the 2010 ALCS. In my opinion, Harvey was better for the first 8 innings of Game 5 when you consider his team was facing elimination and going against the deep contact lineup of the Royals. Terry Collins had made the decision to turn to his closer for the 9th. However, Harvey wanted to go out there. Of course, the crowd wanted him out there too. I joined the chants of “Harvey, Harvey” and “We want Harvey” when we saw on television that Collins wanted to take him out. I thought for sure Harvey would seal the deal. Right before the top of the 9th inning, the Mets position players came out first. When we saw Harvey running out of the field, we went nuts. Harvey sprinted to the mound and did a jump slide into it. The moment was something out of a movie. However, the Royals had a different ending in mind. It was obvious Harvey was too pumped when he walked Lorenzo Cain. I had a thought that Collins should have pulled him then for Familia. I have to be fair and admit that I thought Harvey would still come through. As a result, I cannot blame Collins at all. After an Eric Hosmer double to drive Cain in, Familia finally entered the game. He got the first out that advanced Hosmer to third. Then, Salvador Perez hit a one hopper in the infield. David Wright should have let the shortstop Wilmer Flores field the ball so he could cover third to hold Hosmer. In addition, his throw to first could have been stronger. Regardless, Duda should have thrown Hosmer out at the plate.
Hosmer would have been out easily with a decent throw. It was not a good base running play. He did not even get a good jump. He looks smart because of the results. I will admit there are legitimate reasons for Hosmer making a break for home. First, the Royals are an aggressive team so it fits in with their style. Next, the Mets infield was awful in the series so it makes some sense to force the issue on them to make a play. First basemen also do not normally throw to home. In addition, the Royals were left stranded at third base in Game 7 of last year’s World Series. However, they just could not get to Madison Bumgarner last year and they had already rallied against Familia twice in the series so ensuring one of their best clutch hitters, Alex Gordon, bat makes more sense to me. Regardless, the Royals were up 3-1 in the series and it worked so Hosmer will be remembered as a hero now. If Duda would have made a good throw, this series would have become very interesting. Harvey’s Game 5 performance would also have been remembered as one of the great moments in New York sports history. If the Mets somehow rallied to win the series, the base running play would have been heavily criticized forever.
The Future of Both Teams
For the Royals, they are still a small market team so keeping their team together will be very difficult if not impossible. Johnny Cueto has no chance of returning and I doubt the Royals even make a token attempt to re-sign him. Key midseason acquisition, Ben Zobirst, is likely gone too. He played great and killed the ball in the World Series. He was the only Royal to hit Harvey hard in the first 8 innings of Game 5. There will be many suitors in pursuit of him and the Royals will be outbid. Another key player is Alex Gordon. He is great defensive outfielder, solid hitter, and great teammate. He was the first of the Royals’ super prospects that came to the major league stage. He is a key to their team but could very well outprice himself too. Regardless, I expect the Royals to be contenders and a factor for a few more years. Nevertheless, I do not expect a dynasty because they do not have dominant starting pitching and will start losing key players. It is also difficult to maintain a dominant bullpen as most relievers are at their peak for only 3-4 years.
For the Mets, they took a great leap forward as a team and are well ahead of schedule. Their dominant, young power pitching is for real. deGrom and Harvey have already arrived as top of the rotation starters. Syndergaard is right there with them. They are very young and can still get better. I am also a big fan of Steven Matz and believe he will be special. Furthermore, they will have Zach Wheeler returning in the middle of next season. He is another top of the rotation type starter. Outfielder Michael Conforto also looks like a star. Expect to see him full time next year and beyond. On the other hand, they will lose Cespedes for sure. Daniel Murphy may also leave if he gets too high of an offer from another team. They will have to find another impact right handed bat to replace Cespedes. More importantly, they need to get much stronger defensively up the middle. They will also need to find much better middle relief to setup Familia. Their GM Sandy Alderson has done a great job but he definitely has a lot of work to do. It is very difficult to get to a World Series and win it since a team needs to be great and lucky. As a result, it is difficult to say for sure that the Mets will return to the World Series or win it. Regardless, they will surely be legitimate contenders for the foreseeable future with their power pitching.
The Present and Future of Baseball
Baseball has done a great job addressing the problem of competitive imbalance and bringing parity to the sport. Big market teams, like the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, or Los Angeles Dodgers, are no longer able to buy super teams. Of course, money still helps but small market teams, like the Kansas City Royals and the Pittsburgh Pirates, are able to compete, be among the best teams in baseball, and win championships. Baseball achieved competitive balance in various ways. While there is not a hard salary, they have a soft one with an escalating luxury tax for teams that want to consistently go above the threshold. Next, revenue sharing has worked well in ensuring every team has money. While the smaller market teams can never outspend a big market team, they do have enough to lock up 2-3 of their best players. For these reasons, superstars in their prime (e.g. Mike Trout or Giancarlo Stanton) are locked up well before they become free agents. While the Los Angeles Angels are a big market team, the Miami Marlins are one of the smallest and still able to sign their best player to a long term deal. As a result, the free agent pools are generally not as good as and older than they used to be. In addition, long term contracts for free agents rarely work out in the long run. Without the performance enhancement drugs and amphetamines, players are not able to maintain their performance as often at advanced ages. The first few years of a long contract generally pay dividends but then a team is stuck with a diminished player at large amounts of money (e.g. CC Sabathia). Other times, you need to overpay to sign them even if they are not an elite player (e.g Jayson Werth). Consequently, big free agent acquisitions are highly risky because of the very expensive consequences. For these reasons, baseball has become much more of a young man’s game in recent years. Teams that draft and develop players well can neutralize the advantage of money. More importantly, the worst teams in baseball have the high draft picks they need to turn their fortunes around. The Houston Astros are a good example of a team that tanked for a few seasons that have resulted in high draft picks which have turned their team around. They have young studs, such as shortstop Carlos Correa and outfielder George Springer, and will bring up more top prospects shortly. They came the closest to eliminating the Royals this year.
The last team to build through big free agent signings and win a championship were the 2009 New York Yankees. The Los Angeles Dodgers have tried the Yankee model in recent years and have had uneven results. They are saddled by terrible contracts. They stayed afloat and made the playoffs by the brilliance of two starters, Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke, a top closer in Kenley Jansen, and a consistent and aging slugger in Adrian Gonzalez. Their roster issues are clearly evident against the top teams in the league during the playoffs. The Yankees have realized the changing landscape and are in the process of adjusting. They still make some big free agent signings (e.g. Jacolby Ellsbury and Andrew Miller) but have put promising prospects in the pipeline as they try to get younger and cut payroll. The dramatic results of the Boston Red Sox in recent years are a good example of both properly and poorly navigating the new world of baseball. In 2013, they dumped payroll thanks to a the Dodgers taking three massive contracts, signed good but not great players to short term contracts to complement their core, and were rewarded with a World Series title. They showed the advantages of the flexibility of short term contracts in order to be able to churn a roster and not get locked into high priced, aging stars. In the last offseason, they went the other way and signed big free agents in Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez to massive contracts. Now, they are stuck with two very expensive and horrible defensive players who are both better suited to be DHs. On the other hand, the Red Sox have done a good job in developing their young prospects, especially Mookie Betts and Xander Boegarts. Once those players emerged as impact players in the second half of the year, the Red Sox looked like a much better team and can build around them to contend again in 2016. They are a great example of how to approach and not approach the new environment in baseball. Of course, the St. Louis Cardinals are currently the model franchise in Major League Baseball. They have done a great job with player development and spending their money wisely.
Without a doubt, there will be plenty of teams that will try to copy the model of the Kansas City Royals. Trying to get younger and more athletic is a given. Getting on base and waiting for the three run homerun became the norm during the 90s due to a record amount of homeruns. However, the use of performance enhancing drugs have declined in the game and power numbers are down. Swinging for the fences and trying to pull the ball all the time may no longer be the best approach. The defensive shifts have dramatically changed the game too. After watching how successful the Royals have been with contact and speed, I expect another paradigm shift in the game. Moreover, there will be an emphasis on hitting to all fields to adjust to the defensive shifts. The Royals also demonstrated the effectiveness and importance of productive outs to manufacture runs. It becomes particularly crucial during the playoffs against the top pitchers in the league when scoring comes down. In an era when hitters striking out has become completely acceptable, the Royals’ success may reverse that trend a bit. Nevertheless, the ability to hit a homerun will still be important. In my opinion, a pure slugger is more of a premium than ever with the overall decline in power numbers from the rest of the league. It is still a significant advantage to have the ability to put some runs on the board via a homerun rather than trying to string together a lot of hits all the time. Over the course of the long regular season, there is still a need for swing and miss homerun hitters who get on base that take advantage of average pitching.
In addition, teams should also not overreact to the success of the Royals. Alcides Escobar had a .293 OBP while Salvador Perez had a .280 OBP during the regular season. They raised their game in the playoffs. In particular, Perez became an absolute pain to pitch to by fouling off pitches and hitting with power. Scott Brosius, during the Yankees run in the late 90s, is another example of a player who had average regular seasons but had big moments during the playoffs. It is impossible to predict who among these type of players will excel in the postseason so teams cannot build trying to guess. Moreover, there are flukes in the small sample size of the playoffs. Juan Pierre had an Escobar type run in the 2003 playoffs with the Florida Marlins but never became a star or dominated another postseason. Daniel Murphy is an excellent situational hitter but I highly doubt he ever homers 7 times in another postseason. My perfect lineup would be a deep lineup of hitters who make solid contact and get on base at a .350 clip or better with 15-25 homerun capability from each hitter. Then, I would have a couple of sluggers in the middle of the batting order. Of course, it is easier said than done. At a certain point, teams need to fill out a lineup with as much production as they can whether it is trying to get “gamers” who the team thinks will raise their game or swing and miss power hitters.
While offense usually gets most of the attention, the Royals are another team that proves the importance of defense. In 2014, they made a countless number of highlight defensive plays especially in the outfield. While they were not as good this season, they clearly had a drastic advantage against the horrendous defense of the Mets and it was a deciding factor in the series. However, the trend towards defensive players really started with the Tampa Bay Rays at the end of the last decade. Since they could not compete with signing as many hitters as other teams, they instead put together a superior defense at a lower cost. Of course, their former manager Joe Maddon was the person who made defensive shifts prevalent. Run prevention can be as important as run production. In 2004, Red Sox GM Theo Epstein traded the very popular, hitting machine shortstop Nomar Garciaparra for a much better defensive shortstop in Orlando Cabrera who became a crucial piece of their championship run. Moreover, the days of Garciaparra, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, or Miguel Tejada at shortstop are over. Carlos Correa has a chance to be a big time offensive shortstop but the middle infield positions have generally become defensive positions again. As a result, teams need to make sure they have plus defenders with range rather than worry about offense from those positions.
The greatest strength of the Royals that every team should mimic is the power bullpen. After the explosion of offense during the 1990s, baseball compensated by producing a lot of hard throwers. Most teams have relievers who can bring the heat. As a result, a team is at a disadvantage if it does not have them. For example, the Astros could not close out the Royals because they just did not have the power arms to stop the relentless offense. During the World Series, the deep and dominant Royals bullpen made a huge difference in the close games against a Mets bullpen that only had Jeurys Familia as a power arm. On the other hand, the best relievers in the game are normally failed or former starters. Wade Davis is a former starter. He has arguably been the best reliever in baseball during the last two seasons. Dellin Betances is another example. He just could not control his walks as a starter but was able to focus in shorter outings as a reliever. A team will normally give every opportunity for a young power arm to develop into a successful starter because they can affect more innings during a season. The Mets have been very fortunate in the success rate of their current crop of starters. It is also too early in the development process to give up on a couple of other pitching prospects they have in the organization. It is a reason they do not have a young, dominant power arm outside of Familia in the pen. Just imagine if Noah Syndergaard was a failed starter and instead became a setup man. If a team tries to sign a top reliever in free agency, the price has jumped drastically in recent years. The Yankees gave Andrew Miller $36 million last offseason and they did not even intend to use him as the clear closer coming into this season. A reliable, effective reliever like Darren O’Day should make a killing in free agency this year. On the other hand, a free agent reliever can still be signed at much less years and money than a top position or starting pitcher. Consequently, there is definitely value and logic in signing relievers instead of starters or position players.
While things change, some things will always remain the same. Power starting pitching will always be a premium in baseball. It is even more important in the playoffs. Pitching is the most important element of baseball. Pitchers control a game more than any other position in the sport. Starters control more of the game because they pitch the most innings. Dominant power pitchers generally have the most success in the postseason. Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson carried their teams to championships in the past. Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson overcame and ended the Yankee dynasty despite a couple of back breaking blown saves from their closer in 2001. Madison Bumgarner basically single handedly defeated the Royals a year ago. Even though the Mets lost in 5 games, their starting pitching still put them in position to have leads going into the 8th inning or later in 3 of the games they lost. For this reason, starting pitching and especially power starting pitching should always be the priority for a team after a superstar position player who can affect more games. Great starting pitching is also the reason why the Mets are going to be significant factors for the next 4-5 years.
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