Do you remember how excited Rockies fans were about Tyler Matzek around this time last year? A much-hyped prospect, Matzek had flopped in the minors, recovered (but only sort of), and finally cracked the big league rotation mid-season after enough Rockies pitchers did what all Rockies pitchers eventually do: break. All he did from that point on was become the best Rockies pitcher of the 2014 season, the single best story of the 2014 season, and the preeminent ray of hope for the Rockies rotation in 2015.
Of course, 2015 turned out to be an unmitigated disaster for Matzek. Now, just one year later, he seems as lost as ever. But the praise last offseason was effusive. Consider this piece from our friends at Purple Row. The choice nuggets: “Expect Tyler Matzek to be a cornerstone of the Rockies’ rotation in 2015 along with fellow lefty Jorge De La Rosa.” And “It all seems to have come together for Matzek, as he has finally taken the stuff that made him a first-round pick and combined it with a mentality of attacking the strike zone. Look for him to build on his 2014 success, especially at the end of the season, and turn in an even stronger season next year.” And, look, I’m not bagging on the author of that peice. I myself assigned Matzek the role of Yordano Ventura in my Rockies-as-Royals pipedream piece, and then named him the fifth most valuable asset in the entire Rockies organization.
But today’s post isn’t about Matzek’s rise and fall (and rise and fall); it’s about a remarkably similar player and story that doesn’t seem to be generating nearly as much excitement this offseason as Matzek inspired last year: the rise of Chad Bettis.
Chad Bettis: A scruffy-looking nerf-herder, perhaps. But certainly not too short to be a storm trooper.
Credit: Getty Images
Of course, it’s not as if nobody is talking about Bettis. Any Rockies fan paying attention in 2015 understood that Bettis was a very pleasant surprise. At the same time, though, nobody seems to be talking about Bettis as the burgeoning rotation mainstay that Matzek was proclaimed to be. Perhaps that’s because we have an even shinier toy to ogle in Jon Gray. Perhaps it’s because of Matzek himself – seeing him implode so quickly and dramatically has made us just that much more cynical about the Next Great Thing. Perhaps.
But my personal theory is that most Rockies fans just don’t realize how good Chad Bettis’ 2015 really was. Or that Bettis’ own pedigree and backstory make him just as “legitimate” a candidate to achieve sustained pitching success in Colorado as Matzek was this at this time last year (or that Matzek still is?). Please, allow me to explore that theory, starting with…
The Origin Story
Bettis, just like Matzek, was a former high draft pick, having been taken in the second round of the 2010 draft, just one year after Matzek was taken in the first. (Although, as a college draftee, Bettis is actually a little more than a year older than Matzek.) Both players earned places on the major prospect rankers’ Top-100 lists (Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, etc.) while in the minor leagues. Interestingly, however, it was Bettis who appeared most recently on those Top-100’s – receiving a peak ranking of #66 overall by MLB.com following a strong 2011 season. Matzek debuted higher on those lists owing to his initial draft assessment, but soon fell off due to poor performance on the field. By the end of 2011, Matzek was a mess.
Bettis, on the other hand, has always been a beast in the minors. He came out of the gates hot, posting strikeout, walk, and overall run prevention numbers that Matzek could only dream of. Bettis’ career minor league numbers – 2.97 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 – all at age-appropriate levels, suggest big league success. Bettis also came armed with a big-league fastball – he touched 100 MPH on occasion – and there was never much doubt that his stuff would play well at the highest level. Really, the only red flags were a suspect 3rd pitch that might result in a switch to the bullpen, and a shoulder injury that cost him the entire 2012 season.
Well, those red flags plus the one that popped up after Bettis sucked hard in his first few showings in the Bigs. Over 44 2/3 innings (including eight starts) in 2013, he posted a 5.64/6.0/4.0 (ERA, K/9, B/9). In 24 2/3 2014 innings (no starts – he was a bullpen-only piece at this point), his line deteriorated to 9.12/4.7/3.6. It was never clear why his minor league success – and, for whatever its worth, his spring training success – translated so poorly in the majors. Life is ful of mystery. Oh well. Rest in peace, Chad Bettis; you were just another once-shimmering pitching prospect lost to the sad truth that there isn’t any such thing as a pitching prospect to begin with.
It’s okay, Chad. If they send you down, you’ll become more powerful then they could possibly imagine.
Credit: stltoday.com
Yet Bettis, like Matzek, rebounded. Bettis, like Matzek, found himself putting up solid results in the AAA rotation when, in between the sun rising in the east and setting in the west, the Rockies rotation was decimated by injury and poor performance. Bettis, like Matzek, was summoned and presented before a Rockies fan base whose collective response could be fairly characterized as more curious than excited. But then…
This Happened
Both Matzek and Bettis experienced mixed results in their first few starts. Matzek started with a gem, followed by a couple clunkers – Bettis with a clunker followed by a few gems. Both young pitchers had an utterly disastrous performance – 8/2/14 for Matzek, 7/7/15 for Bettis – and an utterly brilliant one – 9/5/14 for Matzek, 5/29/15 for Bettis. There were sustained runs of excellence from both, rough patches from both, and, in Bettis’ case, a minor injury and stint on the disabled list that robbed him of a few starts in the middle.
When the dust settled, though, each player’s breakout season was remarkably similar.
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
BABIP
LOB%
GB%
HR/FB
Chad Bettis (2015)
20
115
7.67
3.29
0.86
0.313
72.9%
49.3%
11.0%
Tyler Matzek (2014)
19
117.2
6.96
3.37
0.69
0.312
73.8%
49.7%
8.3%
ERA
FIP
xFIP
bWAR
Chad Bettis (2015)
4.23
3.85
3.89
1.8
Tyler Matzek (2014)
4.05
3.78
3.92
1.7
All the way down the line – from the directly-controllable indicators like strikeouts, walks, and ground ball rate, to the probably-mostly-luck numbers like BABIP and LOB%, to the bottom-line results and value estimators like ERA, the FIPs, and WAR – these two had basically the same season. In fact, the only places we find any daylight at all are with regards to home runs allowed, and in that case the daylight is dim, and can be explained by the difference in HR/FB, which we know is almost always driven by pure luck.
What’s more, if the goal is get as totally pumped for 2016 Chad Bettis as we once were for 2015 Tyler Matzek – and, if it isn’t already obvious, that basically is my goal here – check this out. By Baseball Prospectus’ DRA (and DRA-) and cFIP metrics, which, as I’ve mentioned several times already, should to be at the very tip of every sabermetric-loving baseball fan’s brain already, Chad Bettis actually had a clearly better breakout season.
DRA
DRA-
cFIP
Chad Bettis (2015)
3.77
88
98
Tyler Matzek (2014)
3.95
97
104
DRA, which stands for Deserved Run Average, is the most sophisticated and context-sensitive estimator of pitcher performance available. It likes Bettis’ campaign better. DRA- centers DRA around a league average of 100 (with lower numbers being better), and gives us the best comparison of DRAs across different seasons. DRA- likes Bettis’ campaign much better (9 points on this scale is actually pretty significant). cFIP, which accounts for only those aspects of pitcher performance most directly controllable (strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed), and is also context-sensitive and centered around 100, likes Bettis’ season better, as well. cFIP actually considers Matzek’s 2014 to be a bit of a mirage.
For what it’s worth, the projection systems also considered Matzek’s breakout to be unsustainable. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection predicted Matzek to pitch to a 5.51 ERA and be a sub-replacement-level player. Steamer projected a 5.01 ERA. ZiPS was a bit more kind, predicting a roughly league-average 4.29 ERA, but even that most favorable outlook didn’t consider Matzek a good candidate to even repeat his 2014 performance, much less take the proverbial “next step.” Matzek optimists – and, again, I was one of these (and, to be honest, still am) – believed the projection systems were missing something, that they couldn’t know what we all thought we did: Matzek had “figured it out.” Turns out the heartless computers won this round.
As for Bettis, of the three projection systems mentioned above, only Steamer has it’s 2016 predictions available. It pegs Bettis for a 4.46 ERA, which isn’t star level performance – all of these projection systems are prone to some level of disbelief in a player’s initial breakout season, and rightly so – but Steamer at least expects Bettis to more-or-less repeat what he accomplished last year. It didn’t expect so much from Matzek – in large part because of another set of data points all of these projection systems consider to varying degrees: a player’s recent track record, including in the minor leagues. And again, Matzek’s was mostly horrible. Bettis’ was just the opposite.
“Walt, I can be an Ace! Walt, tell ’em I’m ready!”
Credit: lubbockonline.com
I don’t know if this will mean anything. Matzek Happens. For better and for worse. Maybe Bettis will be just the same. But I do know this: given the on-field results – in both the previous season and over the longer term – and the fact that each of these young men carried with them the prospect pedigree that ought to give us confidence that those results aren’t myths, if you were excited about Matzek at this time last offseason, you ought to be just as excited about Chad Bettis. I know I am.
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