For baseball’s losers, the offseason comes early. Such is life for the Colorado Rockies. As it turns out, 2015 was not the Rockies’ year. A few months from now, many fans may talk themselves into believing that 2016 will be different. Maybe they’ll be right, probably they won’t. Either way, there will be Rockies’ roster to celebrate or lament, and it will undoubtedly look at least a little different than it does today.
So how does it look today?
Funny I should ask, because I just happen to have produced the latest update in my 40-man Ladder series! For the uninitiated, what follows is a rank-ordering of the Rockies current 40-man roster by value. As I point out each time, when it comes to a player’s overall value, keep in mind that while on-field performance is the most important factor, it is by no means the only factor. Age, injury status and, especially, contract status and salary matter quite a lot.
Players added to the team’s 40-man roster since the most recent version prior to the trade deadline:
Jon Gray, the clubs #1 pitching prospect and sure-thing franchise savior.
Tom Murphy, who assumes the catcher-of-the-future baton from Wilin Rosario.
Jason Gurka, a lefty reliever raised by the Orioles and adopted by the Rockies.
Dustin Garneau, a glove-first journeyman catcher.
Miguel Castro, one of the three pitching prospects acquired in the Tulo trade.
And, last but not least (well, actually, as it turns out, last and least)…
Jose Reyes, the tax paid by the Rockies to consummate the Tulo trade.
Waving goodbye are:
Troy Tulowitzki, franchise icon and perhaps best player ever to don the purple pinstripes.
LaTroy Hawkins, swept up by the Tulo Tornado and spit out in Toronto.
Drew Stubbs, fired for poor performance.
Rafael Betancourt, fired for poor performance (that wasn’t actually so poor if you believe his FIP of 3.34).
Kenny Roberts, waived and then claimed by the Phillies.
Brooks Brown, waived, claimed by the Dodgers, and guaranteed to pitch great against the Rockies next season.
Gonzalez Germen, cut but still in the organization.
Simon Castro, in lock-step with Germen.
Kyle Kendrick, technically still on the roster, but only until his free agency becomes official, thereby lifting the curse
Michael McKenry, cut in large part due to injury, and sure to land on his feet with another club. I’ll miss him.
@theFortMcKenry I’ll enjoy watching your future success. Will always appreciate your warmth & openness as my 1st Rockies interview subject.
— Ryan Hammon (@ryanhammon) October 15, 2015
The list below shows each player’s previous rank and basic contract info, including, for arbitration-eligible players, their projected salaries according to MLB Trade Rumors. I’ve also added measures of their performance 2015. For hitters, I’ve chosen wRC+ , a context-adjusted comprehensive measure of offensive performance where 100 is average and higher numbers are better. For pitchers, I picked DRA-. I’m a big fan of this new pitching metric from Baseball Prospectus. Basically, it’s a more accurate version of ERA. DRA- is also centered on 100, which is average, but in this case, negative numbers are better.
I include WARP, as well. This is the Baseball Prospectus version of Wins Above Replacement and I’ve come to prefer it to the more commonly cited versions from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. This is because a) I trust Baseball Prospectus’ defensive metric more than the others’ (which is to say I distrust it the least), and b) they publish a version of pitching WARP that relies on the new DRA, which, again, I’m certifiably in love with. Some of the prospects already added to the roster but without MLB playing time will have no statistics listed.
Here’s the list, which actually includes more than 40 players because players on the 60-day Disabled List are also included. I’ll follow the list with some commentary on the most noteworthy changes from the last list in July.
My initial ranking for Jon Gray is admittedly quite aggressive. The consensus in the scouting community seems to be that Gray’s outlook has fallen some since the Rockies drafted him – that he’s more likely to be a mid-rotation guy than an Ace ™ at this point. If that’s true, he’s less valuable than a young everyday player like Corey Dickerson. But there is still enough mystery around Gray (and all other pitching prospects at this early stage), that the possibility remains he becomes a dominant pitcher while making relative peanuts for a half-decade. That’s the jackpot all teams seek, which means Gray still holds massive value.
Tom Murphy debuts at #8 on the list, another aggressive placement. Murphy has holes in his game to be sure. He strikes out a lot, which is actually sort of en vogue these days, but only so long as those strikeouts are accompanied by decent power and on-base skills. Murphy only has one of those two qualities: power. But he’s got quite a lot of it, and if he can become Wilin Rosario on offense (another high power, high strikeout, low walk guy), but actually defend his position, he’ll be that long-term answer behind the plate the Rockies have been waiting for.
Tom Murphy about to connect on his first career hit.
Credit: D-Rock Imaging
Another newcomer, Miguel Castro, starts his Rockies career at #11 on my list. Don’t let his lackluster showing at the end of 2015 influence your opinion of him too much. It was downright awful, but the sample size was small, he’s had a lot of success in the minors to this point, and, most importantly, the kid is still just 20 years old. He could marinate in AAA for another several seasons and still be very young for a major league rookie. Still, I’ve placed him this high only on the premise that, despite him appearing in relief this year, Castro’s long-term future will be as a starter. That’s a big “if.”
Just behind Castro is our old friend Tyler Matzek. He had as bad a 2015 as anyone could possibly have imagined back in the spring. Given his long and strange history with the organization, I wouldn’t blame anyone for writing him off at this point. Still, he’s a starting pitcher with big upside, and reasoning similar to that outlined above for Jon Gray also applies to Matzek. Even if he’s nothing but a lottery ticket at this point, I wouldn’t trade Tyler Matzek for anyone below him on this list straight-up.
Justin Morneau showed quite well down the stretch after returning from a long injury-induced layoff. Conventional wisdom seems to be that the Rockies will decline their option on Morneau this offseason, making him a free agent. In what will likely be a non-contending year, this makes a certain amount of sense. But at $9M for one year, I think there’s actually some surplus value here to mined via trade. Just a hunch, but I bet the Rockies keep Morneau and then flip him to another team this winter or early next year for an asset.
Jario Diaz, the Rockies return in last year’s trade of Josh Rutledge to the Angles, and Justin Miller, a scrapheap find last offseason, both looked really good in their brief stints with the big league club last month. Either could find themselves with a key bullpen role next year. Diaz has closer upside.
Jairo Diaz uses his tongue to calibrate his slider. Credit: Getty Images
Speaking of closers, John Axford is a difficult man to slot on the list. On one hand, he had bounce back year better than even the Rockies likely expected when they signed him to a minor-league deal last spring. He’s now thoroughly back on the MLB scene. On the other hand, all those saves he racked up means he would get paid well via arbitration – more than he is actually worth. The result is that the Rockies will either a) not offer him arbitration, making him a free agent, or b) keep him at something close to that projected arbitration number of $6.5M, and be left with a player with on-field value, yes, but also a player with negative surplus value overall.
Christian Bergman, Yohan Flande, and Chris Rusin all improved their stocks as the year went on. While it was Rusin who logged the most time, and who will be remembered most prominently due to a couple outstanding starts, Bergman and Flande were both better. Rusin gets credit, though, for carrying a fulltime starter’s workload and being the innings-eater some thought Kyle Kendrick would be.
Kyle Parker’s stock has never been lower. He was completely overmatched at the big league level in both in a brief tenure last season, and a more extended look in 2015. The raw power is there, and with a potential sell-off on the horizon this winter, his 1B/OF flexibility may earn him one more extended run of playing time next season. But at 26 years old, we shouldn’t expect much improvement at this point.
Even if he doesn’t stick in the bigs long term, Kyle Parker has made at least one more great catch in the Major Leagues than I have.
Credit: Associated Press
Wilin Rosario and Brandon Barnes are both almost certain to be non-tendered this offseason, making them free agents. I still believe Rosario has a future in baseball, but any lingering trade value he might have had at the beginning of the season is now entirely evaporated. Barnes plays his heart out, but there are 100 guys just like him freely available for the minimum salary.
Finally, there is Jose Reyes. I wrote an extended analysis of his trade value back in August. Everything expressed there still applies. Personally, I’m not at all interested in re-litigating the Tulo trade. I didn’t like it then, I don’t like it now, and also wouldn’t be surprised if it nevertheless turns out well for the Rockies in the end. But with regards to Reyes, there are two undeniable truths. 1) He’s overpaid. By a lot. 2) He’s still a major league shortstop and better than about half of the shortstops other teams in the league are running out there on a daily basis. One of those teams is going to trade for him; it’s just a matter of how much financial pain will be borne by the Rockies in the process.
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