Do you believe Republicans can win control of the Senate in November? Which battleground state is key for Democrats regaining the majority?
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Republicans have made taking control of the Senate a top priority in this fall’s elections, and for a while it looked like they would easily reach that goal.
Mid-term elections generally swing towards the party that doesn’t hold the White House, and President Obama’s low job approval ratings are further bringing down Democratic candidates, as Christian Science Monitor reported Tuesday.
But recent developments are indicating the tide may be turning toward the left. In the past few days, a number of the major election forecasting models have lurched back toward the Democrats.
According to Christian Science Monitor, the New York Times Upshot model now judges the race for the Senate to be a tossup, with a 51 percent chance Republicans will win a majority, and a 49 percent chance for Democrats.
“The probability is essentially the same as a coin flip,” according to the Upshot.
The data journalism site 538 gives the GOP a slightly better 55 to 45 percent edge, but that’s down from a 64 to 36 percent Republican lead on Sept. 1, Christian Science Monitor reported. And the Washington Post Election Lab gives Democrats a 51-49 edge.
“A week ago, I was thinking Dems were toast for Senate; now I think GOP could find a way to blow it,” tweeted Talking Points Memo editor and publisher Josh Marshall on Tuesday.
The Christian Science Monitor reported missteps haven’t caused Republican chances of winning the Senate to decline from 65+ percent plus to a toss-up, but a change in the models themselves: As the election nears, they begin to place more emphasis on poll results in individual races, as opposed to underlying political fundamentals.
Three races indicate that Democrats are doing better than expected.
Colorado
In late August, incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall had a 64 percent chance of winning reelection, according to the Post’s Election Lab model. Now, he’s got a 94 percent chance of another term, Christian Science Monitor reported.
However, the right-leaning Daily Caller reported Republican Rep. Cory Gardner has notched his largest lead to date over Udall in Colorado’s tight race for U.S. Senate, citing a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday as having the Republican ahead, 48-40.
It’s the largest lead Gardner has had in the race, but the poll is also the only one of several released recently showing him ahead by such a wide margin. Other polls show either a dead heat between the candidates or they have Udall ahead, The Daily Caller reported.
“With control of the U.S. Senate in play, the Rocky Mountain State gives a jolting shot of adrenaline to the GOP,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll, in a press release announcing the poll results.
Iowa
The Election Lab model gave Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst, who is running for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Tom Harkin, a 72 percent chance of winning. Now that’s slid to a 59 percent chance, Christian Science Monitor reported.
A poll of likely Iowa voters released Wednesday by Quinnipiac showed Ernst leading with 50 percent, to Democrat Bruce Braley’s 44 percent, The Associated Press reported. The poll of 1,167 likely voters — which had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points — was the first to show Ernst with such a lead. It was also Quinnipiac’s first survey of likely voters, a group that can be more GOP-leaning than registered voters. Other recent polling has shown the two closely locked.
Braley is focusing mostly on his policy positions, and his recent television ads have featured others talking about the four-term congressman’s record. Braley doesn’t appear in the ads himself. By contrast, Ernst’s campaign is all about her story as a down-home farm girl and military veteran, The Associated Press reported.
Kansas
The Kansas Supreme Court sided Thursday with Democrats attempting to remove their candidate – Chad Taylor – from the ballot in the razor-tight Senate race, a blow to incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts’ reelection prospects. Politico reported.
Taylor’s withdrawal clears a path for independent Greg Orman to challenge Roberts one-on-one. Polls show Orman leading in the contest in a head-to-head matchup, Politico reported.
Although Taylor announced earlier this month he was ending his campaign, Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach had ruled Taylor’s name must remain on the ballot because his withdrawal failed to meet the precise requirements of Kansas’ election law, according to Politico. But the court dismissed Kobach’s argument, agreeing Taylor satisfied the law when he announced his decision to drop out.
Election Lab model ratings in Kansas, Louisiana and North Carolina also have moved in the Democrats’ favor, Christian Science Monitor reported. At 538, founder Nate Silver also pointed out improving chances for Democrats in Colorado and North Carolina.
“Whatever the reason, the GOP’s path to a Senate majority is less robust than before,” Silver wrote on his blog.
Meanwhile, Republicans on Friday released new campaign ads that play on fears of ISIS and terrorism, CNN News reported, and the Republican charged with helping elect new GOP congressmen said national security was “popping” as a key issue heading into November.
“We’re seeing a big uptick on national security issues,” U.S. Rep. Greg Walden, an Oregon Republican, told reporters at a breakfast hosted by The Christian Science Monitor on Friday. He cited a CNN poll showing t57 percent of Americans didn’t approve of Obama’s handling of terrorism.
Walden said it was too early to tell if the issue had overtaken the economy as the chief concern of voters, but on Friday, the National Republican Congressional Committee rolled out paid television ads in four competitive House districts that accused Democrats of cutting funds to fight al Qaeda, CNN reported. One of the new spots said that a Democratic candidate supported suspected terrorists keeping their U.S. passports.
Three of the ads featured images of groups of men carrying weapons with ominous music and a narrator warning that positions supported by Democratic candidates made them “dangerous,” CNN reported.
A spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said the GOP was “resorting to Karl Rove’s scare tactics.”
“It’s a shame that at a time when our nation is facing real threats abroad and economic challenges at home, the NRCC would stoop to these lows just to try to win seats,” Josh Scherwin told CNN in a written statement.
The rest is here:
Democrats making gains in key U.S. Senate races and could maintain majority of seats