Ukraine officials say there are 80 thousand Russian troops on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine, supported by scores of tanks and mobile artillery. The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed.
Some reports have Russian forces already in a Ukraine province north of Crimea (here).
Pictures have popped up on social media confirming the movement of large numbers of military war machines, tanks and such on trailers being driven on Russian highways to the Ukraine border.
These are forces moving up to the border of Ukraine proper, not the previously targeted Crimea (see map).
Russia has admitted that there are military maneuvers underway, the Defense Ministry saying these “training exercises” involve 10 thousand troops, though it is clearly more.
However, the last military training exercise a few weeks ago had been schedule long in advance and neighboring countries notified in advance so as not to cause alarm. Not so today.
Russia is also moving against news media in Crimea (here) ahead of Sunday’s election in Crimea on the question of breaking away from Ukraine and joining Russia.
John Kerry, our Secretary of State, says things can “get very ugly very fast” if the wrong decisions are made. He was referring to sanctions on Russian oligarchs, but we would hope he would threaten something a bit more muscular.
If Vladimir Putin takes another bite of Ukraine after his Crimea-for-breakfast, it will indicate he is completely dismissive of Western threats of sanctions. You therefore have to wonder just where he will stop.
If he is especially scornful of the West, he will conduct a small incursion into the Baltic States, formerly Russian satellites but members of NATO. Does NATO, including the United States of course, have the will to confront Russia with military force? We already know that Putin has sized up President Obama and has measured him as a size 40-slim peace-nik. Looks good on the college campus and the faculty lounge, not so much on a muddy and bloody battlefield. In fact, Obama has said as much (“I was elected to end wars, not start them.”)
We in the West are trying to talk ourselves into believing Putin cares about the ruble losing value, or the Russian stock market collapse, or the oligarchs seeing their American and British bank accounts frozen, or Germany cancelling new pipeline deals. There is a good chance he does not, especially if what he gets in exchange is Crimea and Ukraine. Remember, Kiev was the ancient capital of Russia. What difference does the whining of a few oligarchs make in comparison with grabbing an entire country?
And if he were to gobble a small NATO country (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) and NATO did not respond with military action, which it probably would not (which NATO country seems willing or able to do that?) would that not be the end of NATO, and the very structure of alliances that has kept Europe in peace since the end of WWII?
President Obama doesn’t have to go to war, but he has to start convincing people around the world that he actually would if pushed. Right now he seems like a man who can be pushed and pushed and pushed.
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