Ben Coley previews a Qatar Masters and fancies a chances of big-hitting Nicolas Colsaerts during 50/1.
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Nicolas Colsaerts: Ready to contend during ideal course
1pt e.w. Nicolas Colsaerts during 50/1
1pt e.w. Thomas Aiken during 90/1
1pt e.w. Peter Uihlein during 66/1
1pt e.w. Romain Wattel during 80/1
1pt e.w. Mikko Ilonen during 50/1
If you’re still struggling to come to terms with what happened in a Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, suppose how Gary Stal feels.
The 22-year-old Frenchman, who somehow gave vital champion Martin Kaymer 10 shots and a violence over a shutting 12 holes, has usually a integrate of days to redeem as a Qatar Masters starts on Wednesday, to comment for a Friday-Saturday weekend in this partial of a world.
I did cruise either this shorter turnaround appears to have negatively influenced performances of those personification both events, though that doesn’t demeanour to be a box and, given that we’re a one-hour moody from Abu Dhabi, this creates sense.
Indeed we competence design that players will find it easier to reason onto movement around a dried pitch and that’s been a box in some instances, with a likes of George Coetzee, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Steve Webster enjoying prolific runs.
What we do know is that a course, Doha GC, hasn’t altered a good understanding over a years. Luke Donald pronounced as many when he returned from a six-year deficiency to tee it adult final season, and relaid greens in allege of a 2014 book didn’t forestall a likes of Coetzee, Cabrera-Bello, Mikko Ilonen and fortuitous champion Sergio Garcia from stability clever associations with what stays a informed layout.
As with Abu Dhabi GC, it’s designed by Peter Harradine and not separate to final week’s venue. Rightly, Doha has warranted a repute as being a toughest of a 3 courses used in a Middle East pitch though it’s not overly difficult, generally given that there’s a genuine miss of punishment off a tee. Coetzee strike usually over 35% of fairways on his approach to fifth final year while Garcia ranked usually 54th for pushing accuracy.
The pivotal defences come around a breeze and a greens.
This is an eventuality that was reduced to 54 holes interjection to clever gales in 2012 when Open champ Paul Lawrie won for a second time, and when we see a likes of Ernie Els, Thomas Bjorn, Adam Scott and Garcia on a roll-of-honour it’s tough not to cruise of a Claret Jug and players who can conflict a elements. Indeed, even ‘surprise’ 2013 leader Chris Wood is a actor whose excellent hours elsewhere have come in a Open Championship.
Ilonen and Garcia, meanwhile, are former holders of a Amateur Championship, as is startle spin of a century leader Rolf Muntz who, like Garcia, landed that ancestral eventuality during Muirfield. In my opinion there is positively no fluke to this and I’d titillate anyone seeking their possess selections to strongly cruise form during a Open and on links layouts in general, even in a delinquent ranks.
As for a greens, they’re notoriously grainy, with Henrik Stenson dogmatic that a pivotal for him to play good here is to safeguard he doesn’t leave downhill, downgrain and downwind putts. It competence also be no fluke that a final 10 Qatar champions, including a likes of Joakim Haeggman and Darren Fichardt, have won tournaments in Asia or Africa where pellet is deliberate a large factor. Wood’s initial veteran title, don’t forget, indeed came in Thailand.
With all of this in mind I’m drawn to a prospects of Nicolas Colsaerts.
The big-hitting Belgian is entitled to be egged on by a exploits of compatriot Thomas Pieters final week and played utterly easily himself, ranking third for greens in law on his approach to 26th place.
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At a back-end of final year, maybe in partial a effect of examination his former team-mates win a Ryder Cup, Colsaerts constructed a fortuitous of top-six finishes to pledge his label for 2015 and over a march of a final 6 months there are usually 4 players on a European Tour who’ve strike a larger commission of greens in regulation.
That will offer him good as he earnings to Qatar for a initial time given he finished ninth in 2012, a opening that could’ve been so many improved though for a misbehaving putter. It won’t warn we that Colsaerts ranked second in pushing distance, though it competence that he led a margin in both pushing correctness and greens in law to denote a transparent fondness for a march that does lend some arrange of advantage to energy hitters.
It would be stretching things rather to call Colsaerts a links specialist, though he does have top-10 finishes during Hilversumsche, Castle Stuart and Royal Lytham as good as in a Dunhill Links in his behind catalog while his third place in Sicily dual years ago catches a eye, given that he was behind dual group with clever Qatar annals in Wood and Thorbjorn Olesen.
We know that he goes good in Asia given that he’s been both initial and second in a Volvo China Open while his dried record is solid, so putting on grainy greens isn’t typically an emanate even if it was here 3 years ago.
Having sealed out with a good 67 on Sunday, Colsaerts could be primed for a large week during a march he’s able of powerful if it’s benign, and traffic with if it isn’t. Early indications are that it could be a latter.
At a conduct of a market, Garcia deserves his favourites’ tab carrying finished second and initial on his final dual visits. He knows how to win after an deficiency and there’s no actor in a margin whose diversion is improved matched to a course, so as 7/1 chances go he isn’t a misfortune I’ve seen.
That being said, we didn’t cruise he sealed out 2014 in a unequivocally best of form and with no Ryder Cup and an Open Championship during arguably a slightest suitable march for him, it is probable to rather doubt his proclivity and we trust that – as good as off-course complacency – has been pivotal to his resurgence.
At usually about a same cost is Justin Rose though again, single-figure quotes aren’t giving many divided given that his form total here are MC-MC-MC-16, while Henrik Stenson took a while to strike tip rigging final term, constructed his misfortune ball-striking total in a best partial of a year final week and hasn’t fared too good during this march in new times notwithstanding progressing successes.
The dual who seductiveness me many are Charl Schwartzel and Branden Grace, though conjunction demeanour overpriced and we can leave them out.
Schwartzel did strike a turn beautifully final week and will be dynamic to infer his South Africa Open meltdown is behind him, something that competence be done easier if his wife, as expected, stays on a bag.
He’d get welfare to Grace, who threw in a integrate of intolerable holes final week and has radically halved in price. we do like him and we know he’s won in China, as good as dual events on links courses, though even these factors don’t concede for me to behind him during what’s substantially too brief a price.
Instead, maybe Thomas Aiken can infer a collect of a South African contingent.
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Aiken is a mixed leader behind home in South Africa and it’s maybe revelation that he’s also won a Avantha Masters in India, so grainy greens are not a problem whatsoever.
He showed as many when concerned in a large share of fifth here final year, when we also corroborated him, and all this notwithstanding feeling that his brief diversion was not adult to scratch.
Hopefully it will be this week given his prolonged diversion is in good sequence notwithstanding a missed cut in Abu Dhabi. Aiken strike over 80% of fairways and greens and in law usually missed a weekend given he done a intolerable 8 on a par-five second; I’d many rather see that than a actor who missed out given a period of common holes.
I’ve had a pleasure of interviewing Aiken in a past and as good as being a generally good man, a thing that struck me many was his unrestrained for links golf. He cited a Open Championship as his favourite eventuality and, predictably, a Old Course as his favourite layout, and top-10 finishes during Royal Lytham and during Fancourt Links supplement weight to his apparent adore for a purest form of a sport.
Aiken’s other European Tour win came during a breezy El Prat and his batch low, left-to-right shot is not separate to that that Garcia relies upon. Given that he’s been sixth here as good (2011) and led a all-around 12 months ago, I’m peaceful to pardon that missed cut final week and take a possibility during tighten to 100/1.
Next on my list is Peter Uihlein.
The big-hitting American is one of a few players who can contest with Colsaerts off a tee and that’s an item that competence good reason him in good stead.
His solitary European Tour win to date came by a sea in Madeira, while after that year he mislaid a play-off for a Alfred Dunhill Links Championship to David Howell, who boasts a excellent record here during Doha.
Uihlein putted unequivocally good on his approach to 16th place final year and this is a opening that looks improved and improved when we demeanour during what followed. Somehow, his subsequent 13 events showed 11 missed cuts, a withdrawal, and 25th place in a no-cut Cadillac Championship behind home in a US.
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Given that he’d also missed a cut in a preceding Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and finished nearby final in a Volvo Golf Champions before that, 16th in Qatar sticks out as a conspicuous bid in an awful run. Surely, something about this march unequivocally matched him.
Twelve months on and Uihlein has rediscovered his game. He finished ninth, fourth and 11th opposite 3 unequivocally opposite events in Australia, Mississippi and Turkey before blank a cut after a month off to finish 2014, returning final week to finish 31st notwithstanding a noticeably rusty short-game.
With a actor of his intensity I’m always prone to take a certain perspective of things and cave is that he’s on his approach behind towards a tip echelons of a European Tour. The wish is that he can take a large step brazen underneath what competence be ideal conditions in Doha this week.
Going behind to Stal’s doubtful triumph, unchanging readers would be astounded if we didn’t put adult a Frenchman. Stal himself spoke of a bond between Gallic golfers after his delight on Sunday, revelation reporters that he hopes to have desirous another one of them to step adult and win on tour.
My wish is that male is Romain Wattel.
Aged 24, Wattel is usually a integrate of years comparison than Stal and I’m certain his destiny is equally bright, if not brighter. It usually so happens that, so far, he’s not found winning as easy though he did land a Challenge Tour pretension on his unequivocally initial try while still an amateur, that in itself bodes well.
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To my eye he looks like he’s peaceful to learn his lessons and eventually be prepared to take an eventuality and, carrying put together 19 top-10 finishes on a European Tour, 2015 competence good be a year that sees him mangle through.
As with Emiliano Grillo final week, this doesn’t meant I’m about to get concerned on Wattel during brief prices though 80/1 looks unequivocally satisfactory notwithstanding a missed cut on his anniversary lapse in Abu Dhabi.
Wattel has some eye-catching form in Asia and Africa to his name and therefore seems to putt good on grainy greens while he led going into a final turn of a KLM Open during Kennemer final year, one of a classical links golf layouts in Europe.
He also finished third during Gleneagles a integrate of years ago, an eventuality that Scott, Lawrie and Bjorn have won while a third place finish in a Dubai Desert Classic provides some unequivocally clever dried form.
Here during Doha, he’s done 4 cuts from 4 – few players have avoided a intolerable week during this march – and finished 11th notwithstanding a third-round 74 final year, carrying sat sixth during halfway.
Those who aren’t assured by a togetherness of French golf competence be convinced by a peek during a 2013 European Tour calendar, that reveals that there were 4 French winners. One of them, Julien Quesne, triumphed 3 weeks after Gregory Bourdy while it wasn’t prolonged before Victor Dubuisson pennyless by in Turkey.
It competence not be this week, though Stal’s win will prompt some of a younger French players to step adult over a entrance weeks and months, I’m certain of it.
The one regard of genuine note would be that Wattel has switched bar manufacturer; he’s now regulating Nike rather than Titleist. This indeed underlines a talent he has as a organisation tend to go after intensity top-notchers, and for each actor whose struggles with new apparatus are documented there seem to be others who flower immediately, such as Olesen after he too changed to Nike.
That isn’t to contend we have any genuine thought as to how he prolonged it will take Wattel, though during a cost on offer this week we am peaceful to take a chance.
Finally, with nothing of a marketplace principals creation a good understanding of interest I’m going to extend a staking devise to 5 and make room for Mikko Ilonen.
The Finn didn’t play all that good final week though did seem on a leaderboard for a time on day one, that is an alleviation on final year’s missed cut.
Clearly, under-performing in Abu Dhabi didn’t impact him entrance here as Ilonen had a putt to kick Garcia in a play-off, carrying finished ninth a year earlier. He’s now done 5 cuts in a quarrel during a march and unequivocally knows how to understanding with it, that is in no tiny partial down to a pointy brief diversion and that excellent links golf extraction we mentioned earlier.
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Ilonen has now won 3 times over a final dual seasons and been runner-up 3 times on tip of that. All of this means his win rate given a start of 2013 on a European Tour is improved than 8% (Garcia’s is 7%, despite from a smaller sample) though given that he’s nonetheless to find genuine consistency, he tends to go off during large prices.
Given that Ilonen says he was usually 90% fit final year and “expects” to play good again during a march that suits his eye many improved than Abu Dhabi, anything upwards of 40/1 looks unequivocally satisfactory indeed.
Preview posted during 1355 GMT on 19/01/2015