Ashutosh Kumar |
The most remarkable feature of the forthcoming Punjab election is the emergence of AAP as the third party in a bipolar electoral arena. It is a rare spectacle to witness a four-year-old party scaring two of India’s oldest parties which have been entrenched in state politics with a steady social base. Yet, four-year-old AAP has emerged as the game-changer. If drugs, corruption and dynastic politics dominate manifestoes today, the credit goes to AAP for raising these issues forcefully. Significantly, a non-Punjabi-speaking AAP leader is being compared with satraps like Parkash Singh Badal and Captain Amarinder Singh, who have over five decades of political life in Punjab.
AAP’s regional career commenced with the 2014 elections in Punjab when, as a debutant party, it won four out of the state’s 13 Lok Sabha seats. The performance defied electoral wisdom; the party was completely new to Punjab, without recognisable leadership, organisation or support base. Moreover, AAP had drawn a blank in states like Haryana. For some, its Punjab story was an aberration — one view was that AAP would meet the fate of the now-defunct People’s Party of Punjab or BSP, both suffering decline after promising starts. Friction within AAP, leading to the alienation of party volunteers and leaders and heavy losses in two assembly by-elections, seemed to confirm the grim prognosis. Then, the expulsion of the party state convener Sucha Singh Chhotepur and his followers led to a slew of charges, ranging from corruption in ticket distribution to the neglect of local members, even humiliation by non-Punjabis sent from Delhi.
Despite these setbacks, the presence of AAP remains an enigma, particularly considering the role of identities in the post-1966 Punjabi suba ensuring high electoral participation with closely contested elections. Ever since state politics returned to “normal” with 1997’s assembly elections, Congress and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) had steady support. Then, how did a non-regional party like AAP, which failed to gain traction with its Delhi model of governance, which lacked any definitive ideology or social base, mark its presence?
Arguably, what helps AAP is the desperation of a significant segment of voters. Their frustration meets the party’s ability to direct blame onto the Akalis and Congress. Since recovering from militancy, Punjab has been reeling under post-Green Revolution stagnation, the flight of industries, a growing drug menace, crony capitalism, corruption and a governance deficit. All the poll promises made by the two parties, of bringing a second green revolution, etc, remained on paper while Punjab slipped in the development index. There have been repeated crop failures; farmers’ indebtedness and suicides have become regular. In the name of urban development, large chunks of agricultural lands have been taken over by land sharks, in connivance with politicians. Punjab’s once-famed trade and manufacturing sectors witnessed exodus to neighbouring states, allegedly due to corruption. The decline virtually decimated the urban trading class — a strong BJP base. The BJP state unit seems acutely uncomfortable about remaining in alliance with SAD, but it is compelled to not break the alliance for fear of helping rival Congress.
The drug menace has also stigmatised the established political class, harming the Akalis the most as they’ve been in power when synthetic drugs appeared. These, along with unemployment, are some issues explaining AAP’s popularity among the state’s youth — reflected in social media. Support from the Punjabi diaspora also exists for these reasons. But do voters believe in the ability of mostly inexperienced AAP candidates to turn the economic tide? Do they believe all the tall populist promises made by the party, to traders, industrialists, youth, women and Dalits, will be fulfilled? Probably not — but what still endears a large segment, especially the youth, is the promise to bring change in what is perceived as a thoroughly corrupt political establishment, entrenched for decades. This explains why the two established parties have been harshest about the new party. They sense with AAP in the fray, Punjab politics won’t be business as usual.