Strange happenings in the Middle East these days. While it may be tempting to view the current spate of violence between Israel and Hamas as a simple but brutal binary exchange, the relative silence of many Arab governments in not condemning Israel speaks to a larger regional power realignment. Such a shift goes to some length in explaining why any long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian question is highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.
In particular, both the Arab-Iranian and Sunni-Shia fissures can largely explain why Hamas initiated the fighting last month. With its bloody eviction of the rival Palestinian Authority (PA) from Gaza in 2007, Hamas has had to rely on two primary funding sources for its military capabilities and quasi-governance: Iran and the Gaza-Egyptian border crossing.
With Shia-majority Iran, Hamas had a longstanding supporter in arms and finances. In a classic example of realpolitik, Tehran backed the Sunni-based Hamas in order to exert regional influence over its Arab neighbours. Iran even included the group among its ominous ‘Axis of Resistance’ network; pitching Hamas alongside such luminaries as the Lebanese Hezbollah and Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
But this all changed with the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’. Syria’s Alawite-minority government, a sub-sect of Shia Islam, received Tehran’s backing in its war against the Sunni-majority rebels sponsored by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Shia Hezbollah, formally aligned with Hamas in mutual hatred of Israel has also taken the side of al-Assad, becoming the dictator’s ‘shock troops’ in a conflict that has claimed at least 190,000 lives.
Feeling the need to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with its sectarian brethren, Hamas eventually broke ranks with Iran and Hezbollah, abandoning its political headquarters in Syria for Qatar. This left the militants with having to rely on taxing the Gaza-Egypt border crossing and income derived from smuggling tunnels. This too would come to a screeching halt in July 2013 when Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood government, a sister organization of Hamas, was overthrown by the Egyptian military.
The Egyptian military remains determined to crush the Brotherhood, taking the view that it and Hamas are interchangeable. As long as Hamas is alive and well there remains hope for a resurrected Brotherhood. Egypt is hardly along in expressing such sentiment – a theme that is regularly reflected in its own state media – as the governments of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) equally do not wish to see the Brotherhood equivalents on their soil succeed. In an age of ISIS, any opportunity to snuff out an active radical Sunni Islamist group like Hamas is an opportunity best not missed.
Thus, Cairo kept the border closed and proceeded to destroy the smuggling tunnels. (It is without irony that the Israeli crossings with Gaza are the ones that have remained opened). Egypt’s actions, in combination with Iranian isolation put the financial squeeze on Hamas. Following the failure of the PA unity government and a public sector strike over low wages Hamas went for broke, firing rockets into Israel on July 8.
Now, two months later with the current ceasefire largely holding, Hamas’s brutal gamble has cemented the geopolitical realignments in the region – at least for the near future. Israel now finds itself unreservedly among strange company: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the UAE. None of these states could be called friends of Israel but then again all crave a check on the Brotherhood affiliates in their own lands and Iranian expansionism – especially now that Hamas’ actions have brought it back into Tehran’s good graces. Yes, international politics can be a funny thing.
The sum total of these alterations is a realization that any lasting resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian divide is bigger than these two players. Only with a regional solution involving a Sunni-Shia rapprochement will there be any chance of a long-lasting peace (however that will be defined). Still, with sectarian chaos and Arab-Iranian machinations prevailing in Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, I wouldn’t hold your breath.
Jeffrey F. Collins is a PhD Political Science candidate in International Relations and Public Policy at Carleton University. He resides in Charlottetown, P.E.I.
–
Prince Arthur Herald
Photo Credit: Twitter, @Politico