One of the popular bets heading into a major international tournament is to predict the Golden Boot winner. We backed Robin van Persie at 22/1 to be the Premier League top goalscorer this season and two years ago we had David Villa to be the World Cup top scorer (he ended up sharing it with 3 others). Here’s why we’re not backing any of the 3 favourites and 5 we think it is between:
Favourites
Mario Gomez (Germany) 8/1
The Bayern Munich striker is coming off a personal best, 41-goal season with the German giants. 26 of those came in the Bundesliga where Bayern Munich scored 77 goals against the likes of FC Köln, Hertha Berlin and SC Freiburg. He’s the sole striker in a formation that has the likes of Franck Ribery, Arjen Robben, Thomas Müller and Toni Kroos behind him setting up chances. At international level, Gomez scored 6 in 6 in qualifying; these came against Kazakhstan, Austria (2), Azerbaijan, Turkey and Belgium. Mario Gomez has failed to score in Germany’s last two international tournaments and is coming off of the back of a disappointing Champions League final. Can he deliver in the big games? Will he even start? He is yet to convince me.
Robin van Persie (Netherlands) 10/1
The Arsenal striker hung onto his lead as the Premier League top scorer at the end of the 2011/12 season despite only scoring 4 goals in his final 10 games. During this time, van Persie looked jaded having played his first full season in England; undisrupted by injuries. He’s also got contract talks and continual links with a move away from the club on his mind. On top of that, the Dutch ace doesn’t play as a central striker for his country, behind Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Robin van Persie scored 6 goals in 6 qualifying games; 2 of these came against Hungary and the other 4 in an 11-0 thrashing of San Marino. He failed to score against Finland, Moldova and Sweden. It’s hard to go against one of the best strikers in the world but I don’t see him outscoring the field this summer.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) 14/1
The Real Madrid star is towards the top of this list for his club form more than anything. Yes, he scored 60 goals at club level this past season. However, Portugal don’t have all the creative flair around them as Ronaldo has at club level (Mesut Özil, Angel di Maria, Xabi Alonso). And Portugal face a tough group that includes two of the three favourites. In all likelihood, Ronaldo has three games to win the Golden Boot. Germany have a strong defence with Philipp Lahm likely to be watching Ronaldo when they meet. Denmark will likely setup defensively in this tournament to frustrate their opponents. The Netherlands will be without their first-choice left back though. Ronaldo needs a hat trick in one of these games and a few more in the others. All-in-all I don’t see him scoring enough to top the charts on 1 July.
Top 5 Contenders
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (Netherlands) 18/1
The Schalke 04 striker is coming off the back of a 48-goal season which included 14 goals in 12 Europa League games. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar was also the top scorer in qualifying for this tournament with 12 goals. A game in Finland was the only time in his 8 appearances that he did not score. The former Real Madrid and AC Milan front man is the Netherlands’ first-choice striker. He has the likes of Wesley Sneijder, Arjen Robben, Rafael van der Vaart and Mark van Bommel creating chances for him. The top 2 in group B face the top 2 in group A, which consists of Poland, Russia, Greece and the Czech Republic. So you’d expect the Dutch to play at least 5 games in this tournament. My favourite choice for the Golden Boot.
Fernando Llorente (Spain) 16/1
Athletic Bilbao’s Fernando Llorente is coming off the back of a great season with the Europa League runners-up. Touted for a move to one of Europe’s elite clubs, Llorente is expected to start up front for Spain in Euro 2012 following David Villa’s failure to recover from a broken tibia in December. Good with his feet and in the air, Llorente will be the main focus up front with the likes of Xavi, Andrés Iniesta, Cesc Fabregas and Xabi Alonso providing the passes.
Miroslav Klose (Germany) 16/1
The 33-year old German striker is 1 goal behind Ronaldo as the all-time top scorer in the World Cup. He scored 2 goals at Euro 2008. Coach Joachim Löw has trust in both he and Lukas Podolski. Neither had played or scored many goals the season before the last World Cup, but both were selected, started and scored. Assuming Miroslav Klose starts this tournament, you can expect the Lazio striker to score. He had the likes of Podolski, Mesut Özil, Thomas Müller and Bastian Schweinsteiger creating chances for him it. Even in reserve, Germany have Toni Kroos, Mario Götze and Marco Reus. This guy scores goals, and Germany are likely to have 5 or 6 games in this tournament. He’s a strong shout to top score.
Karim Benzema (France) 16/1
The Real Madrid striker is coming off of a 32-goal season. He is the central striker in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Yes, Laurent Blanc’s side do play a counter-attacking formation, but Benzema is the target man up front. Good with both his feet and aerially, he has the likes of Franck Ribery and Samir Nasri to supply him. A number of chances will fall to Benzema is this tournament and with the form he’s shown this past season, you can put your money on him to score them. Karim Benzema and France will face an England defence that will be playing only their third game under coach Roy Hodgson, Ukraine who are one of the weakest teams in the tournament, and Sweden in their final group game. You’d expect them to make the knock outs giving Benzema more chances to score.
Lukas Podolski (Germany) 25/1
The new Arsenal signing was a one-man team for FC Köln in the German Bundesliga last season, scoring 18 league goals amongst a poor side. Playing as a left forward in the 4-2-3-1 formation, Lukas Podolski scored 2 goals at the last World Cup. He has one of the best left feet in the game and converts a high percentage of his chances. Playing amongst a team of creative midfielders, Podolski will get a fair few chances in this tournament. Playing against the attacking Dutch side, an over rated Portugal and Denmark, Germany will have a fair few chances to score in their group games and no doubt Lukas Podolski will be amongst those.