By Olivia Alveshere
ABC Newspapers
Enrollment will continue to climb in the Anoka-Hennepin School District, according to new projections unveiled by Chief Technology and Information Officer Joel VerDuin at the School Board’s latest meeting Feb. 22.
Projections show a gain of 165 students next school year, bringing the total number of students attending Anoka-Hennepin’s regular K-12 schools to 36,721 in 2016-2017. Students attending alternative schools and early childhood special education facilities are not accounted for in projections.
Last year, the district predicted decline through 2019-2020, but after an increase of 78 students this fall, the first increase in more than a decade, that pattern has shifted.
The district analyzes building permits, live births in Anoka and Hennepin counties, census data and more each year to calculate enrollment projections.
Building permits more than doubled in Champlin and Dayton from 2014 to 2015. Ramsey also saw a large jump from 66 to 124.
Births have risen steadily since 2011, and VerDuin expects to capture a large kindergarten class in 2016.
Projections forecast 570 additional students K-12 by 2020-2021, but “please understand that the further we project out, the less confident I am with those numbers,” VerDuin said. “How much of an upward trend could change from one year to the next, but the upward trend should continue out through the next five years.”
Next year, Hamilton and Morris Bye elementary schools, both in Coon Rapids, are projected to see enrollment swings with programming changes, and with a planned addition this summer at University Avenue Elementary School, Blaine, enrollment is projected to increase by almost 70 students.
Johnsville Elementary School, which saw an addition go up last summer, is projected to decline by 16 students because the outgoing fifth-grade class is larger than the incoming kindergarten class is expected to be, according to VerDuin, who added that the school’s population has increased by 20 percent the last five years.
At the secondary level, both Oak View Middle School and Andover High School show large declines in the next five years – a drop of 232 students at Oak View and a drop of 260 students at Andover High School.
“For whatever reason when we look at Oak View and Andover High School attendance areas, the student population in those areas is what I would call top heavy,” VerDuin said. “There’s not as many younger students as there are older students.”
So, when student populations are rolled up to figure future-year projections, they show a downward trend.
VerDuin anticipates families will move into the area and building permits will yield further growth, altering those downward projections, as has happened in the past.
“In five years, this really doesn’t necessarily come out to fruition,” VerDuin said.
Conservative projections
VerDuin called the projections “conservative,” which concerned some board members.
“Are they really truly something we can count on, or (are they) overly conservative?”
oard Chairperson Tom Heidemann asked. “(They) may not be an accurate reflection of what we really believe is going to happen in Anoka-Hennepin, and it may lead us to make the wrong decisions and not be prepared for what the reality is going to be.”
Superintendent David Law assured the board that the projections serve their purpose, helping buildings review staffing on an annual basis.
“Year over year our projections are very close for total district enrollment,” Law said. But “that model is only as good as next year.”
Boardmember Bill Harvey understood the need to be conservative when budgeting for revenue, but he questioned the place of these conservative projections when undertaking facilities planning.
“If you sell yourself short on the space you’re going to need, you will have a challenge,” he said.
VerDuin suggested the board take a deeper dive with a demographer when the district’s new Fit for the Future Task Force considers facility options.
“A more comprehensive look is probably worthwhile given the fact that we’re trying to look to the future by 10 or 15 years,” Heidemann said.
Contact Olivia Alveshere at olivia.alveshere@ecm-inc.com