SIREN -- "Trump son-in-law holds talks over post-election TV network," by the FT's Matthew Garrahan and James Fontanella-Khan in New York: Jared "Kushner ... contacted Aryeh Bourkoff, the founder and chief executive of LionTree, a boutique investment bank, within the past couple of months, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. Their conversation was brief and has not progressed since, the people said. Mr Bourkoff and Mr Kushner both declined to comment...
"Mr Bourkoff, who launched LionTree in 2012, has advised on transactions worth more than $300bn, including Liberty Global’s $23.3bn acquisition of Virgin Media and Verizon’s $4.4bn takeover of AOL. He is also [one of] John Malone’s favoured advisers and helped the so-called 'Cable Cowboy' consolidate the US pay-TV industry — in deals that culminated in Charter Communications’ $78bn takeover of Time Warner Cable this year." http://on.ft.com/2dIcXtU
GOOD MONDAY MORNING -- More than 1.4 million people have already voted in 2016, according to the United States Election Project at the University of Florida. Most of the early voting has been in Florida, where 477,912 have cast their ballot so far. http://bit.ly/2exaFD2
22 DAYS until Election Day.
**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/1M75UbX
THE POLITICO/MORNING CONSULT POLL -- WIDESPREAD DISTRUST IN INSTITUTIONS -- “The American electorate has turned deeply skeptical about the integrity of the nation’s election apparatus, with 41 percent of voters saying November's election could be ‘stolen’ from Donald Trump due to widespread voter fraud. The new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll -- conducted among 1,999 registered voters Oct. 13 through Oct. 15 -- shows that Trump’s repeated warnings about a ‘rigged’ election are having effect: 73 percent of Republicans think the election could be swiped from him. Just 17 percent of Democrats agree with the prospect of massive fraud at the ballot box…
“One thing is certain, and it's clear across every major national poll: Trump is behind in his quest for the White House. In the POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, which included interviews with 1,737 likely voters, Clinton is beating Trump by 5 percentage points in a two-way race, 46 percent to 41 percent. In the four-way contest, Clinton is beating Trump 42 percent to 36 percent, with 10 percent supporting Gary Johnson and 3 percent supporting Jill Stein.” http://politi.co/2dIbzaG
Some other nuggets from the poll:
--Barack Obama is still pretty popular. His approval rating is 49%, 58% among voters 18 to 29, 85% among Democrats and 15% among Republicans.
-- Even if Donald Trump doesn’t, a plurality of Republicans want to keep Paul Ryan as speaker. 44% of Republicans say they want to keep Ryan as speaker. 37% favor new leadership, and 19% don’t know or have no opinion.
--Lots of people support legalizing pot. 60% either strongly or somewhat support legalizing marijuana. Just 32% oppose. 69% of voters aged 18-29 support legalization.
--People prefer one-party rule. Those who say the American people like divided government may have it wrong: 30% of those polled said they like the president and Congress to be controlled by the same party. Just 18% say they like divided government. Mostly, people don’t care. 37% say it doesn’t make a difference.
--43% of people plan to vote early, either by absentee or in person before Election Day.
Crosstabs -- horserace numbers: http://bit.ly/2dgZ6P3 | topical questions: http://bit.ly/2eaBonk
TRUMP ATTACKS RYAN -- @realDonaldTrump: “The Democrats have a corrupt political machine pushing crooked Hillary Clinton. We have Paul Ryan, always fighting the Republican nominee! … Paul Ryan, a man who doesn’t know how to win (including failed run four years ago), must start focusing on the budget, military, vets etc. … Wow, interview released by Wikileakes [sic] shows ‘quid pro quo’ in Crooked Hillary e-mail probe.Such a dishonest person - & Paul Ryan does zilch!”
--FOR THE RECORD: Say what you want about Paul Ryan -- and we’ve had plenty to say -- but he’s won with 55% or more of the vote every year since 1998. In fact, the 2012 race -- where he was the VP nominee -- is the only political race he’s ever lost. Even if you think his budget ideas are garbage, he’s certainly spent a lot of time on the budget. One Ryan ally told us last night in an email: Trump will lose pretty soon, and Ryan will still be around.
FROM TRUMP TOWER -- A letter with 100 business leaders who support Donald Trump. http://bit.ly/2dm4VWC ... CNBC op-ed: “Here’s why 100 business leaders support Trump for president,” by Dan DiMicco, former CEO of Nucor and Andy Puzder, current CEO of Carl’s, Jr. parent CKE. http://cnb.cx/2efY8nO
CLINTON STRATEGERY -- “Clinton keeps the public schedule light in home stretch,” by the Boston Globe’s Michael Levenson: “Clinton held 52 events compared with Trump’s 88 between Aug. 1 and Oct. 10, the review showed. President Obama held 74 events and Mitt Romney 76 during the same period in 2012. And over the same period in 2008, Obama held 108 events and John McCain 100. Clinton’s light public schedule reflects the large number of private fund-raisers she attended, the extensive time she spent on debate preparation, and the three days she spent off the trail recuperating from pneumonia. Strategists in both parties said it also reflected Clinton’s risk-averse style and her campaign’s calculation that she benefits by receding from the spotlight and allowing it to shine on Trump’s scandals and incendiary remarks.” http://bit.ly/2eIn5He
STATE OF PLAY -- “As Trump stumbles, Clinton weighs a striking choice: Expand the map or stick to the plan,” by WaPo’s John Wagner, Abby Phillip and Jose DelReal: “Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton faces a striking choice in the final three weeks of the campaign: to expand her efforts to states that Democrats haven’t won in a generation, or to stay a current course that, if conditions hold, would deliver her a resounding electoral college victory … Clinton aides said they see advantages to running up the score in the electoral college, where 270 votes wins the White House. Victories in unexpected places could boost that total, handing her more of a mandate come January and decreasing the potency of Trump’s complaints of a ‘rigged’ election … The issue is predominantly about resources. Clinton and the Democratic Party entered October with twice as much money in the bank as Trump and the Republicans, but some in Clinton’s camp have cautioned against any late moves that could jeopardize a victory in states she appears to have nailed down.” http://wapo.st/2exc3FK
-- Chelsea Clinton is stumping in Tempe, Arizona, on Wednesday. And Bernie Sanders is going to Tucson and Flagstaff Tuesday. (RCP average of Arizona polls: Trump +1.0)
NYT, A1 -- “Officials Fight Donald Trump’s Claims of a Rigged Vote,” by Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns: “Republican leaders and election officials from both parties on Sunday sought to combat claims by Donald J. Trump that the election is rigged against him, amid signs that Mr. Trump’s contention is eroding confidence in the vote and setting off talk of rebellion among his supporters … Jon A. Husted, the secretary of state of Ohio, said it was ‘wrong and engaging in irresponsible rhetoric’ for any candidate to question the integrity of elections without evidence. Mr. Husted, a Republican, said he would have no reason to hesitate to certify the results of the election. ‘We have made it easy to vote and hard to cheat,’ Mr. Husted said Sunday in an interview. ‘We are going to run a good, clean election in Ohio, like we always do.’” http://nyti.ms/2eIv7Qw
WAPO A1 -- “Inside Donald Trump’s echo chamber of conspiracies, grievances and vitriol,” by Philip Rucker and Robert Costa: “He is preaching to the converted. He is lashing out at anyone who is not completely loyal. He is detaching himself from and delegitimizing the institutions of American political life. And he is proclaiming conspiracies everywhere -- in polls (rigged), in debate moderators (biased) and in the election itself (soon to be stolen). In the presidential campaign’s home stretch, Donald Trump is fully inhabiting his own echo chamber. The Republican nominee has turned inward, increasingly isolated from the country’s mainstream and leaders of his own party, and determined to rouse his most fervent supporters with dire warnings that their populist movement could fall prey to dark and collusive forces.
“This is a campaign right out of Breitbart, the incendiary conservative website run until recently by Stephen K. Bannon, now the Trump campaign’s chief executive — and it is an act of retaliation. A turbulent few weeks punctuated by allegations of sexual harassment have left Trump trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in nearly every swing state. Trump’s gamble is that igniting his army of working-class whites could do more to put him in contention than any sort of broad, tempered appeal to undecided voters.” http://wapo.st/2dlYfb1
FOR YOUR RADAR -- “Kurdish Troops Advance on ISIS-Held Villages East of Mosul,” by NYT’s Michael Gordon and Tim Arango in Badana Pichwk, Iraq: “Kurdish forces on Monday morning began advancing on a string of villages east of Mosul, the start of a long-awaited campaign to reclaim Iraq’s second-largest city from the Islamic State, which seized it more than two years ago, officials said.” http://nyti.ms/2ekYcNO
ATTACK IN N.C. -- “Pat McCrory: Firebombing ‘an attack on democracy’,” by Charlotte Observer’s Jim Morrill: “[O]ne GOP official called it an act of ‘political terrorism.’ In a tweet, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump blamed ‘Animals representing Hillary Clinton and Dems in North Carolina.’ Hillsborough police said somebody threw a bottle of flammable liquid through the window of Orange County’s GOP headquarters, setting campaign signs, supplies and furniture ablaze before burning itself out. A swastika and ‘Nazi Republicans get out of town or else’ were spray painted on the side of an adjacent building. No damage estimates were available.” http://bit.ly/2dlWQRP
NEW AD -- The Clinton campaign is out with a new ad called “America’s Bully,” comparing Trump to some of the best-known Hollywood bullies. The ad is airing in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as part of a previous buy. http://bit.ly/2ee0gru
ANNIE KARNI and GLENN THRUSH on the WikiLeaks effect inside the Clinton campaign: “Key allies are filled with anxiety about their personal, and often blunt, assessments -- of Democratic allies and the candidate herself -- being exposed in the email hack. The campaign has scoured [campaign chairman John] Podesta’s account, using search words to identify any information that could potentially come out and upend the race. Campaign manager Robby Mook has tried to keep the mood upbeat among the hundreds of young staffers who populate two floors of an overcrowded campaign headquarters in Brooklyn — and Clinton’s staff claims there’s nothing they have discovered in the hack that they expect will take them down or upend the race. But some of the ‘psy-ops’ tactics appear to be working.
“Anxiety among Clinton aides and allies, some of whom are positioning themselves for jobs in the White House or ambassadorships, is spreading. … There’s a gallows humor about it: Mook has posted reminders over the urinals in the campaign headquarters reminding campaign staffers to be careful with their email passwords. ‘You wouldn’t share your toothbrush, don’t share your password,’ one sign reads (according to a source familiar with the men’s room).” http://politi.co/2dtJA0W
WIKILEAK DU JOUR -- How Clinton’s camp broke from Obama by deciding to take campaign cash from lobbyists who represent foreign entities. They settled on deciding on a case-by-case basis. http://bit.ly/2dgnLn8
Someone got a poll back! Rob Portman mailer in Ohio using Hillary's "Stronger Together" language. pic.twitter.com/ZuGZ1uH02j
— Jacqueline Alemany (@JaxAlemany) October 16, 2016
HAPPENING TODAY -- DONALD TRUMP will hold a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Mike Pence is in Mason, Ohio, for a noon rally.
BERNIE SANDERS will be in Fort Collins, Colorado, for a rally. Anne Holton will be in Pensacola, Florida. Bill Clinton is in Hanover and Keene, New Hampshire.
CLINTON INC. -- NYT A1, “Line Between Public and Private Blurs for Clinton Inner Circle,” by Mike McIntyre: “As chief of staff and counselor to Hillary Clinton at the State Department, Cheryl D. Mills worked ceaselessly to help a South Korean garment maker open a factory in Haiti, the centerpiece of United States government efforts to jump-start the island nation’s economy after the 2010 earthquake. Ms. Mills took the lead on smoothing the way for the company, Sae-A Trading, which secured millions of dollars in incentives to make its Haiti investment more attractive, despite criticism of its labor record elsewhere … Mr. Kim would later become important to Ms. Mills in a far more personal way — as a financial backer of a company she started after leaving the State Department in 2013 … The partnership with Mr. Kim sheds light on the business activities of Ms. Mills — a longtime Clinton loyalist who is likely to play a significant role in any future Clinton White House — as well as the interlocking public and private relationships that have long characterized the Clintons’ inner circle.” http://nyti.ms/2ee2dEn
TIM KAINE PROFILE -- EVAN OSNOS in The New Yorker, “Tim Kaine’s Radical Optimism: “Paired with one of the best-known and least-trusted nominees in Presidential history, Kaine has helped the Clinton campaign look less frosty and stage-managed. ... Kaine spent years cultivating his reputation for approachability, and he has parted with it grudgingly. Once he became the nominee, his wife, Anne Holton, a lawyer and former Virginia secretary of education, continued driving the family’s Volkswagen Jetta around Richmond, until Secret Service personnel prevailed upon her to accept a ride from them. ... A devout Roman Catholic, Kaine is more comfortable quoting Scripture than any Democrat to reach the level of Presidential politics since Jimmy Carter. ...
“For more than three decades, Kaine and his family have attended St. Elizabeth’s, a traditionally black church in Richmond. ‘We deliberately put ourselves in a position where we are in a racial minority,’ Holton told me. ‘Our African-American friends have done that all their lives in one context or another. There is insight that we can learn.’ ... As a politician, Kaine has elements of Joe Biden’s heart and Barack Obama’s brain: schmaltz in service of political advantage. He has never lost an election.” http://bit.ly/2ebP4wn
SCOOP -- “Obama, Holder to lead post-Trump redistricting campaign,” by Isaac Dovere: “As Democrats aim to capitalize on this year’s Republican turmoil and start building back their own decimated bench, former Attorney General Eric Holder will chair a new umbrella group focused on redistricting reform -- with the aim of taking on the gerrymandering that’s left the party behind in statehouses and made winning a House majority far more difficult. The new group, called the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, was developed in close consultation with the White House. President Barack Obama himself has now identified the group — which will coordinate campaign strategy, direct fundraising, organize ballot initiatives and put together legal challenges to state redistricting maps — as the main focus of his political activity once he leaves office.” http://politi.co/2e8NrR4
DAILY DONALD -- “Donald Trump Says He Will Win on Surge of Silent Supporters,” by WSJ’s Michael Bender and Dante Chinni: “Donald Trump, trailing in opinion polls and facing new accusations by women of unwanted sexual contact, has begun arguing he will win the election on a surge of silent backers who have gone undetected by surveys and the political establishment … His theory — which others view skeptically — holds that fear of social stigma prevents some voters from admitting they back him, including when talking to pollsters.” http://on.wsj.com/2eamCgm
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- FROM THE DSCC -- Here is a new internal poll from the DSCC, that they say shows that “Republican Senate candidates are in a no-win situation and will lose votes regardless of how they choose to respond to the increasingly toxic candidacy of Donald Trump.” The poll was conducted by Global Strategy Group. http://bit.ly/2e8WfX8
WEST COAST WATCH -- “Tom Steyer’s shadow campaign,” by Carla Marinucci and Anna Palmer in San Francisco: “Billionaire Democratic activist Tom Steyer insists he’s not thinking about 2018 yet -- but a look at his moves this year show he’s already launched a shadow campaign that could lay the groundwork for him to mount a gubernatorial bid … And in an unprecedented effort that he says will change the state’s electorate for generations to come, Steyer is bankrolling a $13 million millennial-aimed voter registration drive that he tells POLITICO will add upward of 500,000 new names -- most of them young and Democratic -- to the California voter rolls by Election Day.” http://politi.co/2dhFtGA
--“President Obama returns to California to raise money for Clinton, Democrats,” by LA Times’ Christina Bellantoni: http://lat.ms/2dhEExB
TRUMP EFFECT -- “Trump controversies cast shadow on Mar-a-Lago charity galas,” by AP’s Jeff Horwitz, Bernard Condon and Mae Anderson: “A staple of Palm Beach’s high-end philanthropy circuit, the Mar-a-Lago Club boasts rich history, an 800-seat ballroom and ocean views. But some major charities and fundraisers are now concerned with a different feature: the property’s owner, Donald Trump. Following the leak of Trump boasting about grabbing women by their genitals and allegations that he inappropriately touched women — in two instances at Mar-a-Lago — the Susan G. Komen Foundation is leaning toward finding a new location for its January 14 Perfect Pink Party, a million-dollar breast cancer fundraiser it booked a year ago.” http://apne.ws/2duB5CL
MEDIAWATCH -- SNEAK PEEK -- Today, “T Magazine will debut its second annual ‘The Greats Issue,’ a special issue celebrating seven people redefining our culture. This year, ‘The Greats Issue’ celebrates Michelle Obama ... the photographer William Eggleston ... Kerry James Marshall ... Zadie Smith ... Lady Gaga ... Massimo Bottura ... and Junya Watanabe.”
“[The] Michelle Obama cover story is a love letter to the First Lady — written by Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, the author of ‘Americanah.’: “She threw open the White House doors to people on the margins of America. She was working class, and she was Princeton, and so she could speak of opportunity as a tangible thing. ... She grew a vegetable garden and campaigned for healthier food in schools. ... She danced on television shows. She hugged more people than any first lady ever has, and she made ‘first lady’ mean a person warmly accessible, a person both normal and inspirational and a per- son many degrees of cool.” http://nyti.ms/2exgboT ... The cover http://politi.co/2dXYk8V
-- RYAN GRIM in HuffPost, “Is Shep Smith The Future Of Fox News?”: “Shep, 52, is not what you’re used to if you go to Fox News for its brand of hard-edged, Republican rabble-rousing or affirmations that your conservative world view is infallibly correct. ... [Rupert] Murdoch, [Shep] said, has big plans. 'He wants to hire a lot more journalists, he wants to build us a massive new newsroom, he wants to make more commitments to places like this [studio], to hire reporters to work on beats, just enlarge our news-gathering.'" http://huff.to/2e8MDeE
DAVID FAHRENTHOLD Q&A -- "The Man Who Owns the Trump Beat," by Isaac Chotiner in Slate: "The Washington Post’s David Fahrenthold on the Trump Foundation, the Access Hollywood tape, and the time the candidate called him 'a nasty guy.'" http://slate.me/2eebCf6
#FLSEN DEBATE TONIGHT: POLITICO Florida’s Marc Caputo will be a panelist and ABC’s Jon Karl will moderate. Watch at 7 p.m.: www.politico.com/live
BUSINESS BURST – “JPMorgan Chase is announcing today a $75 million global commitment to support minority, women and veteran-owned small businesses. Increasing access to capital and support for underrepresented small businesses that have not fully benefited from the recovery is vital to economic growth. Small Business Forward provides access to flexible capital, seeds new funds for these businesses and expands opportunities for them in high-growth business sectors.” http://bit.ly/2duxEvW
-- FT: “PepsiCo launches multibillion-dollar health drive: US food and drink group to reduce sugar, salt and fat as demand for healthier options rises.” http://on.ft.com/2dI8fMF
SPOTTED at the HFA fundraiser yesterday with Bill Clinton in Short Hills, New Jersey: owners of the Minnesota Vikings -- the Wilf Family, congressional candidate and former Clinton speechwriter Josh Gottheimer, former NJ Gov. Jim Florio, NJ Hillary Finance Director Anne Sciaino, National Chair of the High School Democrats of America Aylon Berger. The invite http://hrc.io/2ebKyy2 … Pic http://bit.ly/2ee0saq
WEEKEND WEDDINGS -- Jen Judson, a reporter with Defense News and POLITICO alum, on Saturday married Jim Vastola, a former Sen. Joe Lieberman staffer who now works for FEMA, in a ceremony along the Wye River in the Eastern Shore of Maryland. The couple met online 2 and a half years ago. SPOTTED: bridesmaid Jenny Hopkinson, Ellen Mitchell, POLITICO alums Leigh Munsil and Marjorie Censer, Jeremy Kirkpatrick. Pic http://bit.ly/2dVgKGa
--CNN producer Marlena Baldacci married Dr. Ryan Militana, who’s his completing an anesthesiology residency at the University of Illinois at Chicago. She was a producer with “The Situation Room” until this June. The couple met at driver’s ed in New Canaan, Connecticut, when they were 16. SPOTTED: Jay Shaylor and his wife, Sara, Jennifer Gray and Chris Warren, Sara Ganim and Danny Cevallos, Rachel Streitfeld, Abbey Niezgoda and Richard Feindel. Pics http://bit.ly/2e0isK5 … http://bit.ly/2dI5v1P
--Eric Schmeltzer, a PR consultant, on Saturday married M’Chelle Ryan, who works in career development at NYU. They met on OKCupid, in 2012. The officiant did give a shout out to Eric’s former boss, Howard Dean, by making M’Chelle say, as she put on my ring, “I’ll love you on our honeymoon when we go to Paris, and to Barcelona, and to Venice, and Rome, yeeeeeeaaaagggh!” Pic http://bit.ly/2efWliB
SPOTTED at Dan Pfeiffer’s wedding this weekend in Palm Springs: Cody Keenan, Anita Breckenridge, Ben Rhodes, Pat Cunnane, Lauren Paige, Ellen Canale, Bobby Whithorne, Lauren Thorbjornsen, David Plouffe, Jon Favreau, Amy Brundage, Jen Psaki
BIRTHDAYS: columnist Jimmy Breslin is 86 ... Ken Baer, CEO and founder at Crosscut Strategies, an OMB and Gore alum and the pride of Cherry Hill, N.J. … N.C. Gov. Pat McCrory is 6-0 ... Michael Beckerman, president and CEO of the Internet Association ... Julie Rovner, senior correspondent at Kaiser Health News and an NPR alum … Bloomberg LP Chairman Peter Grauer is 71 ... Politico’s Angela Greiling Keane, a Bloomberg alum and former National Press Club President ... Politico’s Martin Matishak ... Marcus Alexander Gadson … Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) is 45 ... Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) is 55 ... Rep. Gene Green (D-Tex.) is 69 ... former Rep. Virgil Goode (R-Va.) is 7-0 ... Rep. Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) is 58 ... William Haseltine … Sean Harrison … Jared Edy ... State’s Morgan O’Brien, a proud Tar Heel, and Air Force, CFR and NBA alum … Katey McGettrick … Clay Robinson, the pride of Kentucky (h/t Claude Marx) ... Robert Schwartz, account supervisor at Ogilvy Public Relations … Jethro Ward, son of Ali and Jon ... Diana Gourlay Hamilton … Bill Steiger ... Briggs DeLoach, researcher at Harvard’s Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society (h/t Colby Bermel) ... John Monsif, VP of gov’t relations at First Focus (h/t Jon Haber) ...
… Rich Thomas, partner at Monument Policy Group, celebrating over weekend in NYC (h/t Stewart Verdery) ... NBC News’ Rob Rivas … Michael Shayan, media solutions lead at Google … Alex Youn, senior account exec at Storefront Political Media and a Merkley, Chet Edwards and Brad Ellsworth alum ... Matthew Hennessy, managing partner at Tremont Public Advisors ... Jacquie Brown … Scott McCabe, founder and editor of D.C. Crime and a D.C. Examiner alum … Scott Darling … Fred Yang (h/t Teresa Vilmain) ... Colleen King ... John Weiner ... Google’s Sean Harrison ... Marcus Alexander Gadson ... Chicago movie critic Richard Roeper is 57 ... actor-comedian Norm Macdonald is 53 ... World Golf Hall of Famer Ernie Els is 47 ... Wyclef Jean is 47 ... Eminem is 44 (h/ts AP)