BULLETIN -- MIAMI (AP) - “Miami Marlins confirms pitcher Jose Fernandez has been killed in boating accident.”
--Fernandez was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He was the National League’s 2013 rookie of the year. The Marlins’ Sunday game against the Atlanta Braves has been canceled. Miami Herald story http://hrld.us/2dtDLSe
Good Sunday morning. Two new polls out this morning show the presidential race is in a dead heat. The Washington Post/ABC poll has Hillary Clinton up two points with likely voters, 46-44, with Gary Johnson getting 5 percent and Jill Stein getting 1 percent. Morning Consult’s pre-debate poll shows Donald Trump up one point in a four-way race among likely voters (Trump 39, Clinton 38, Johnson 9, Stein 4).
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NEW CBS NEWS “BATTLEGROUND TRACKER” poll -- Clinton is leading Trump by eight points (45-37) in Virginia -- that’s down from 12 points last month. Colorado is a “tossup” with Clinton leading Trump by one point (40-39). Trump leads Clinton in Missouri by 46-37.
POLLS CONSISTENTLY SHOW that roughly three of every four Americans will be watching tomorrow night’s debate at Hofstra University on Long Island -- the New York Times thinks 100 million people might tune in. (http://nyti.ms/2cw5lya).
On Capitol Hill, many folks tell us they’ll be tuning in not for the Wrestlemania-like spectacle of it all, but because they’re watching to see how the debate affects down-ballot contests. Top operatives and aides on the Hill think House and Senate races will begin to settle as voters react to Monday’s big event.
SUNDAY BEST -- GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS interviews ROBBY MOOK on ABC’s “This Week.” STEPHANOPOULOS: “And what’s the number one point you want to make tomorrow night about Donald Trump?” MOOK: “Well, look, like I said, this is -- this is a time for the voters to pick a president. We’re going to have a lot of people really tuning into this election for the first time. They’re going to see these two candidates on stage. I think they’re going to see that Donald Trump is unfit, unprepared, and over his head. I doubt he will have a command of the issues. I certainly” -- STEPHANOPOULOS: “So you think he’ll take care of the debate by himself? Is that what you’re expecting from Donald Trump?”
MOOK: “Well, I think Hillary’s going to have to press the point. I think that she’s going to have to at times challenge him to reveal what his plans are. You know, for example, he has not revealed any plan whatsoever to defeat ISIS. He says it’s a secret and he knows more about it than the generals do. This is a time for him to present those plans. And maybe he will. But we’ll have to see.” ...
STEPHANOPOULOS: “What’s a win tomorrow night?” MOOK: “I think a win is Hillary having the opportunity to speak directly to the voters about the big difference she can make in their lives. How she’s going to create jobs. How she’s going to get the costs of healthcare under control. How she’s going to help families afford college. We saw at the convention, when she has an opportunity to speak directly to the voters, talk about her history, talk about how this campaign is a mission to help kids and families, she’s going to do really well.”
STEPHANOPOULOS also spoke with Kellyanne Conway. CONWAY: “A victory for Donald Trump tomorrow night is answering the questions and showing America that he’s ready to be president and commander in chief on day one.”
Sorry, Wrestlemania fans: MIKE PENCE on Fox News Sunday said Bill Clinton’s onetime mistress won’t be there on Monday: “Gennifer Flowers will not be attending the debate tomorrow night. Donald was -- was using the tweet yesterday really to mock an effort by Hillary Clinton and her campaign to really distract attention from where the people -- the American people are going to be focused tomorrow night, which is on the issues, it’s on the choice that we face.”
--“Pence deflects on Trump Foundation questions,” by Kyle Cheney: “Mike Pence agreed that questions about the Trump Foundation’s questionable spending are ‘fair game’ and said incorrectly that the Trump family and its charity had already answered ‘all the questions’ that have been raised in a series of investigations by the Washington Post. When Fox News Sunday’s Chris Wallace noted that they had not, in fact, answered any of the Post's questions, Pence hesitated and then dodged: ‘I just wish there was as much interest in the activities of the Clinton Foundation,’ he said, when Wallace asked him about a payment the Trump Foundation made to settle a legal claim against Trump’s Mar-A-Lago club in Florida. ‘The Washington Post reporting on this has been very, very sketchy. They’ve been found to be factually incorrect on a number of bases,’ Pence said.” http://politi.co/2dhoyVh
44 DAYS until Election Day.
HILLARY CLINTON has released a new ad the day before the debate, linking Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns to possible ties to Russian oligarchs. The ad will cycle into their national buy. Ad starts with text on screen: “Donald Trump’s deep ties to Russia are a real problem. And a detailed investigation shows us why.” Brian Ross on screen SCRIPT: “An ABC News investigation has found his real estate fortunes have benefitted greatly from Russian investors, putting a get-tough U.S. policy with Russia in direct conflict with his bottom line.” GEORGE WILL on screen. “That’s one more reason why we’re not seeing his tax returns because he is deeply involved with Russian oligarchs.” Footage of Trump. “He doesn’t want his tax returns out there. Why? What could Trump’s taxes tell us. A lot.” http://bit.ly/2d0VzmM
FACT CHECKS GALORE -- POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney, Isaac Arnsdorf, Daniel Lippman, Daniel Strauss and Brent Griffiths found that “Trump averaged about one falsehood every three minutes and 15 seconds over nearly five hours of remarks. In raw numbers, that’s 87 erroneous statements in five days.” http://politi.co/2djPaFA … The parallel Hillary fact-check http://politi.co/2cXccC6
-- NYT’s Alex Burns and Maggie Haberman also detail “a week of whoppers” from Donald Trump. They found 31. http://nyti.ms/2d15gQA
-- LATimes A1, “Scope of Trump’s lies unmatched” http://bit.ly/2cu5gWM … Story http://lat.ms/2d9Gb4b
--Israeli Channel 2 news’ Udi Segal (@usegal): “Under the screen...@netanyahu getting into the Trump Tower to meet @realDonaldTrump” http://bit.ly/2cXsc7p
CHARLOTTE UPDATE -- “Charlotte police release videos of shooting of Keith Lamont Scott,” by Charlotte Observer’s Mark Washburn, Helen Schwab and Adam Bell: “Video footage released Saturday shows Keith Lamont Scott taking four steps slowly backward with his arms at his sides when he is hit in a burst of four gunshots from police, then crumples to the pavement. From neither vantage point – a police dashboard camera and a body camera worn by one of the officers on the scene – can it be determined whether Scott is holding a gun. But police can be heard repeatedly shouting ‘Drop the gun!’ at the 43-year-old Scott, who died from his wounds Tuesday as his wife stood nearby.” http://bit.ly/2cRAISb … A1 of the Charlotte Observer (banner headline) “Charlotte police release videos -- Footage does not show whether Scott had a weapon” http://bit.ly/2cwbCKj
On Wednesday Jake and Anna will be sitting down for a chat with theSkimm co-founders and co-CEOs Carly Zakin and Danielle Weisberg at Twitter’s DC office for breakfast, conversation and networking. Join in on the conversation on Twitter at #POLITICOSkimm and send us a message at politicoevents@politico.com to learn more.
SWING STATE FRONTS -- Des Moines Register (below the fold), “LOST JOBS DRIVE VOTERS’ ANGST -- Mason City residents have little hope that Clinton or Trump will significantly the trajectory of American manufacturing” http://bit.ly/2cTrlRW … Cincinnati Enquirer (front page tease), “The Enquirer endorses Hillary Clinton” http://bit.ly/2d9KBYK … The Tribune-Democrat (Johnstown, Pennsylvania), “‘The stakes are high’ -- Chelsea touts her mother’s record” http://bit.ly/2d12YAK
TEXT FROM TRUMP – “HUGE OFFER to my biggest supporters-Enter NOW to win a ride aboard Trump Force One w/ me. For a once in a lifetime experience, tap--> http://bit.ly/2csOYgN -DTJ” (The campaign misspelled his initials.)
DAILY DONALD -- “Trump’s Father Helped GOP Candidate With Numerous Loans,” by WSJ’s Alexandra Berzon and Rich Rubin: “Donald Trump often has said on the campaign trail that his business empire grew out of a single $1 million loan from his father. While that is a literal description of how he started in business, the story omits significant additional loans and gifts Mr. Trump received in the early years when he was building his real-estate empire, some of which are described in a document reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.
“The document, a casino-license disclosure in 1985 by then-wife Ivana Trump, shows Mr. Trump taking out numerous loans from his father and his father’s properties near the start of his career in the late 1970s and early 1980s. At the time of the disclosure, Mr. Trump owed his father and his father’s businesses about $14 million, according to the document.” http://on.wsj.com/2dgO3WT
--POLITICO-Harvard poll: Amid Trump’s rise, GOP voters turn sharply away from free trade,” by Ben Oreskes: “Democrats, whose representatives in Congress have traditionally been far more skeptical of trade deals -- and largely voted against giving President Barack Obama the ‘fast-track’ authority to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership last year -- are now far more apt than Republicans to see the benefit of trade, according to an exclusive poll conducted for POLITICO and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Forty-seven percent of Republicans surveyed said that trade deals have hurt their communities over the last 10 years, compared to only 24 percent of Democratic voters. Only 18 percent of Republicans surveyed said that trade deals helped, while 33 percent of Democrats believe free trade helps.” http://politi.co/2cw2OnN
FASCINATING READ -- a congressman discusses his acceptance of Nevada state chair for Trump. Some uncanny honesty -- “Amodei: Trump position chance to influence White House,” by Reno Gazette’s Seth Richardson: “U.S. Rep. Mark Amodei, R-Nev., said Friday his decision to accept the position as Republican nominee Donald Trump’s Nevada campaign chair wasn’t one necessarily built on policy, but practicality. The Trump campaign announced Amodei’s position on Thursday despite the Republican congressman’s sometimes off-message remarks about Trump, including an editorial board interview with the Reno Gazette-Journal where he said Trump would either be a ‘smoking black hole’ or the ‘next messiah.’ Other Republicans have distanced themselves from Trump, including U.S. Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., and Gov. Brian Sandoval, but Amodei in a Friday interview with the RGJ said he saw an opportunity for the West to possibly have some influence in the White House. ‘Listen, if this guy ends up being president of the United States and I end up representing CD2 in the 115th Congress, I want to be able to go to his legislative folks and his staff and even him on occasion and go, ‘Hey, we played ball for you. This is really important for Nevada,’ Amodei said. ‘You want to boil it down, you’re trying to make a connection to someone who may be the chief executive.’” http://on.rgj.com/2d13xLa
LEAST SURPRISING THING YOU’LL READ THIS WEEK -- NYT endorses Hillary, “Our endorsement is rooted in respect for her intellect, experience and courage”: “In any normal election year, we’d compare the two presidential candidates side by side on the issues. But this is not a normal election year. A comparison like that would be an empty exercise in a race where one candidate -- our choice, Hillary Clinton -- has a record of service and a raft of pragmatic ideas, and the other, Donald Trump, discloses nothing concrete about himself or his plans while promising the moon and offering the stars on layaway.” http://nyti.ms/2cLljk9
ON THE MALL -- “Bridging past and present, the African American Museum opening is a dynamic celebration,” by WashPost’s Monica Hesse and Krissah Thompson: “The visitors had all come to this building on the Mall — presidents and statesmen, Freedom Riders and Tuskegee Airmen, a 99-year-old woman whose father was born a slave and died a doctor — to see a museum chronicling one of the most profound narratives in America’s identity; a place exploring both the country’s history and its present, its greatest shame and its people’s greatest triumphs. ‘African American history is not somehow separate from the American story,’ President Obama said in a ceremony before the museum’s opening. ‘It is not the underside of the American story. It is central to the American story,’ he said, adding that it was a narrative that was messy and full of contradictions, ‘as all great stories are.’
“The museum was born after 100 years of fitful efforts, beginning in 1915 when a group of aging African American Civil War veterans came to Washington and proposed their own memorial, and through 2003, when a commission appointed by President George W. Bush produced a report, titled ‘The Time Has Come,’ and officially established the newest Smithsonian institution. ‘A great nation does not hide its history,’ Bush said at the opening ceremony, where Smithsonian Secretary David J. Skorton and the museum’s founding director, Lonnie G. Bunch III, also spoke. ‘It faces its flaws and corrects them.’” http://wapo.st/2d9XuFT
WALL STREET WATCH -- “Yeti: How a $67 Million Investment Became a $3.3 Billion Windfall: Private-equity firm Cortec stands to make 50 times its money in red-hot cooler maker’s IPO,” by WSJ’s Matt Jarzemsky: “A small private-equity firm is about to get a big payoff from a bet on $400 coolers. If all goes as hoped, Cortec Group, with just 20 employees in Midtown Manhattan, could make a profit on paper of about $3.3 billion in the coming initial public offering of Yeti Holdings Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.” http://on.wsj.com/2djMjMA
WEST COAST WATCH -- “Loretta Sanchez has gone negative. Now she’s risking fallout for a future in the Democratic Party,” by LA Times’ Phil Willon: “In just the last two weeks, Sanchez has latched onto scandals surrounding Trump University, the closed San Onofre nuclear power plant and nutritional company Herbalife to question Harris’ effectiveness as California’s attorney general. By attacking a fellow Democrat, Sanchez could peel away some Harris supporters, but she might also alienate party loyalists — which could hamstring another run for higher office if she falls short in November …
“The success or failure of those aggressive tactics in this Democrat-versus-Democrat race may influence high-stakes campaigns in California for years to come. The Harris-Sanchez contest is the highest-profile face-off between two members of the same political party since California adopted the top-two primary system in 2012. And in a state under solid Democratic rule, more brutal intra-party fights are all but certain to be on the horizon.” http://lat.ms/2djyqK2
MEDIAWATCH -- “Sunday Morning” host Charles Osgood’s exit interview”: “With broadcast legend Charles Osgood signing off as host of CBS’ ‘Sunday Morning,’ Tony Dokoupil reports on his big farewell and his exit interview with Scott Pelley.” http://cbsn.ws/2diZFIY
-- JANE PAULEY will succeed Osgood as host of the long-running show.
FUTURE OF MEDIA -- “Snapchat, Known for Ephemera, Proves Its Staying Power With Videos,” by NYT’s Katie Benner and Sapna Maheshwari: “To keep people glued to the app, Snapchat needs a steady stream of content. To that end, on Friday the company introduced Spectacles, sunglasses with a camera embedded in the frames that will be available later this year. People can use Spectacles to take 10-second video clips and upload the footage to the Snapchat app. The new eyewear prompted the company to rename itself Snap Inc. to reflect that it now makes more than one product: the Snapchat app and Spectacles.” http://nyti.ms/2drfWrq
BONUS GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman, filing from Kansas City:
--“The world wide cage,” by Nicholas Carr in Aeon Magazine: “Technology promised to set us free. Instead it has trained us to withdraw from the world into distraction and dependency.” http://bit.ly/2daOilR (h/t TheBrowser.com)
--“Inside the Gentrification of Grand Central Market,” by Jesse Katz in LA Magazine: “Big crowds, legit lox, a civil suit, and millions in debt.” http://bit.ly/2cXPje0 (h/t Longform.org)
--“Truth, beauty and annihilation: my quest for chess mastery,” by Stephen Moss in The Guardian: “When I hit a slump in middle age, I set out on a quest to see if playing better chess would make me a better person. I was unprepared for the pain of defeat.” http://bit.ly/2d6FQmu
--“Hillary vs. the Hate Machine: How Clinton Became a Vessel for America’s Fury,” by Janet Reitman in Rolling Stone: “Decades of right-wing attacks turned a crusader of women's rights into a major target of hate.” http://rol.st/2cJryF5
--“Man v rat: could the long war soon be over?” by Jordan Kisner in The Guardian: “Rats spread disease, decimate crops and very occasionally eat people alive. For centuries, we have struggled to find an effective way of controlling their numbers. Until now …” http://bit.ly/2czwiiS
--“The Sorcerer of Jazz,” by Adam Shatz in the N.Y. Review of Books, reviewing Don Cheadle’s film “Miles Ahead” and “Bitches Brew” by George Grella Jr.: “[F]or nearly five years ... [Miles Davis] all but disappeared into his Upper West Side brownstone. Visitors evoked a macabre dungeon swarming with prostitutes, drug dealers, hangers-on, and corpulent roaches.” http://bit.ly/2cJosRz … $14.95 on Amazon http://amzn.to/2d9Sf5s
--“The Coming of the Russian Jihad: Part 1,” by Leon Aron in WarOnTheRocks.com: “It is estimated that between 5,000 to 7,000 Russian-speaking jihadists have made Russian the second most popular language of ISIL, after Arabic.” http://bit.ly/2cXQl9z
--“How Hampton Creek Sold Silicon Valley on a Fake-Mayo Miracle With Just Mayo,” by Bloomberg’s Olivia Zaleski, Peter Waldman, and Ellen Huet: “Josh Tetrick wanted to build the first sustainable-food unicorn. He’ll need to fend off the feds first.” http://bloom.bg/2cNqnXg
--“Thousands of Girls Are Locked Up for Talking Back or Staying Out Late,” by Hannah Levintova in the Sept./Oct. issue of Mother Jones: “Will Congress do anything to stop it?” http://bit.ly/2czxzGM
--“Speak Weirdness to Truth,” by Venkatesh Rao on Ribbonfarm.com: “Emoji have been a bit of a life changer for those of us who are not naturals at this feeling game. Turns out, they function as pretty good theater masks.” http://bit.ly/2cJodWl
--“‘I Will Kill All the Drug Lords’: The making of Rodrigo Duterte,” by Sheila Coronel in The Atlantic: “Already in his first two months in office, police and vigilantes have reportedly gunned down some 2,000 suspected drug dealers, apparently heeding Duterte’s vow during his inauguration that the fight against drugs would be ‘relentless.’” http://theatln.tc/2czxm6c
--“The U.S. Military’s Most Powerful Helicopters Keep Killing Troops in Fiery Crashes,” by Bloomberg Businessweek senior feature writer Paul M. Barrett: “An investigation into a tragic consequence of the U.S. government budget sequester.” http://bloom.bg/2cJ1HCB
--“Who Is Kim Jong-un?” by Andrew J. Nathan in the N.Y. Review of Books: “In five years he has ... refuted those at home and abroad who doubted his vigilance and ruthlessness, fostered a mild economic recovery, and advanced his country’s position as a nuclear power.” http://bit.ly/2dq1DWL
BONUS GREAT WEEKEND LISTENS, curated by Jake Sherman:
--Widespread Panic on May 7, 2016 in Chicago. A fun show with a great first set. http://bit.ly/2db3q1t
--Phish today in 2000 in Bonner Springs, Kansas. Show opens with “Everybody’s Got Something to Hide Except Me and My Monkey” followed by a 16-minute “Down with Disease,” 11-minute “Lizards” and 15-minute “Tweezer.” Ahh, 2000s Phish. http://bit.ly/2djSpwC
CLICKER -- “A Style Guide for the Federal Employee,” by Luke Hartig for TheAtlantic.com: “How Washington men working in national security dress—for better or for worse.” http://theatln.tc/2dreNzW
SPOTTED: RNC Chairman Reince Priebus getting in a black SUV at the corner of 31st Street and Eighth Avenue, outside Penn Station on Saturday presumably after taking the 8:55 a.m. Acela up from Union Station …Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu at “Hamilton” on Broadway last night ... Brianna Keilar, casually walking and looking for a place to have brunch on 14th Street NW outside Barcelona ... Greta Van Susteren and husband John Coale on Bethesda Row strolling on a fall afternoon ... NRCC’s Jon Reedy, TIA’s Ashley Simmons, Rep. Sean Duffy’s Cassie Smedile and Morning Hangover publisher Kurt Bardella backstage with Brad Paisley at his show in Virginia
WEEKEND WEDDINGS -- “Elyssa Feins, Michael Nadler” – N.Y. Times: “The bride, 31 ... is a vice president and a senior counsel in the credit card legal group at Citigroup in Long Island City, Queens. ... The groom, 31, is a litigation associate at the New York law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison. ... His mother is an adjunct professor at the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia. His father [Jerry], a Democrat, is a United States congressman, representing the 10th District of New York, which includes parts of Manhattan and Brooklyn. The couple met in 2012 through JDate.” With pic http://nyti.ms/2drdkKl
--Ben Tomchik, public affairs director for the American Insurance Association, married Nancy Ross, area coordinator for GWU, this weekend at her family’s home on the shores of Lake Champlain. Fun fact: the couple first met when Ben asked Nancy what flavor ice cream she would have with The West Wing’s President Jed Bartlett. Pic http://bit.ly/2cXi4LX
--John G. Dillard, associate attorney at OFW Law in DC married Laura Doore, a real estate attorney at Venable LLP in DC. The ceremony was earlier this summer in Freeport, Maine. Pic http://bit.ly/2cq63rO
HAPPENING TONIGHT – “The National Archives Foundation will honor Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Ron Chernow, Tony-award winning film and theater director Thomas Kail, and Tony and Pulitzer Prize-winning composer, lyricist and performer Lin-Manuel Miranda at its 2016 Records of Achievement Award gala tonight at the National Archives Museum. The honor recognizes their collective work on the Tony, Grammy and Pulitzer Prize Award winning Broadway musical ‘Hamilton.’”
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Connolly Keigher, Hillary Clinton’s trip director
BIRTHDAYS: Avis Cotton, a loyal “Morning Joe” viewer and mother of Sen. Tom ... Vice’s Josh Tyrangiel, a Bloomberg alum ... April Greener, research director for Leader Pelosi ... Barbara Walters is 87 ... former Defense Secretary Robert Gates is 73 ... Jack Howard, SVP of congressional and public affairs at the Chamber ... Jake Suski, SVP of comms at the Milwaukee Bucks Inc. and a Snyder and Huntsman alum, is 33 … Tim Reynolds … AP’s Evan Berland, AP’s weekend global news manager ... Danny Yadron, Guardian and WSJ alum now in the Stanford Law class of 2019 … NY Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie is 49 ... Liz Margolis ... HuffPost senior justice reporter Ryan Reilly is 3-0 ... TNR’s Brian Beutler … Harrison Taylor Godfrey, manager of state gov’t affairs at Invenergy and an Obama alum ... Nicco Mele, entrepreneur, angel investor, former LA Times deputy publisher, and currently director of the Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics, and Public Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School (h/ts Jon Haber and Ben Chang) ... Emily Threadgill, executive director for the Republican Secretaries of State committee (hubby tip: Tyler) ... Gary Carpentier ... Emily Keech ... Jack Zahora ... Shivonne Foster, account director at Brunswick Group... Christine Harbin Hanson, deputy director of federal affairs at Americans for Prosperity ... Lila Shapiro of HuffPo … Ed Newberry, global managing partner at Squire Patton Boggs … Will Bergstrom … John Elias …
… Vivyan Tran, audience development for WSJ and an NJ and Politico alum … Garlin Gilchrist II, the director of innovation and emerging technology for the City of Detroit and a MoveOn alum ... journalist Lauren Loftus ... Sophie Reagan ... WDBJ’s Justin Ward ... DOE’s Pat Hart (h/t Pam Williams) ... Politico’s Bob King is 51 ... Politico’s George Sallas ... Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) is 55 ... Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.) is 72 ... Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (D-NY) is 63 ... Dena Kozanas, counselor for the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board and a Candice Miller alum … Playbook stalwart Robert Walden -- who played Donald Segretti in “All the President’s Men” and Lou Grant’s favorite reporter, Joe Rossi – is 73 … Tim Connolly ... Philip Dufour is 55 ... Shawn Burke ... Jeannie Doherty ... Rob Ritchie ... Nathaniel Ennis (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Kelly Parks Snider, co-founder at Project Girl ... Amber Pfau ... Mimi Hall, director of public education and outreach at Nuclear Threat Initiative ... Jose Guardia ... Dave Peluso ... Chau Lan Ngo ... Michael Douglas is 72 ... Will Smith is 48 ... Catherine Zeta-Jones is 47 ... actress Emmy Clarke is 25 (h/ts AP)