By Marc Caputo (mcaputo@politico.com; @MarcACaputo) with Bianca Padró Ocasio (bpadro@politico.com; @BiancaJoanie) and the staff of POLITICO Florida
Happy Friday. It’s almost over. Four days left. This is the last full weekend of in-person early voting. Judging by the pre-Election Day ballots already cast and the travel schedules of Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s campaigns, the race is shaping up to be another Florida photo finish.
TRAIL MIX -- President Obama campaigned yesterday in Miami-Dade and Jacksonville, where Trump also stopped hours before. Trump’s running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, returns today to Miami. Clinton’s running mate, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, campaigns in Melbourne and then joins rocker Jon Bon Jovi in St. Petersburg on Saturday, when Clinton returns to an as-yet-unspecified city in South Florida. On Sunday, Obama returns to Boricua-heavy Kissimmee for a final Sunday-before-Election Day early vote rally.
OBAMA EFFECT – After Obama’s visits, in-person early voting spiked in South Florida and Jacksonville, where Republicans typically run up the margins in elections but where Democrats are just 2,541 behind Republicans in casting early and absentee ballots now. Obama made sure in Miami and Jacksonville to gin up the Democrat trifecta of women, minorities and young people by mocking Trump and all but calling him a sexist who accepts “the support of Klan sympathizers.” Guess what will probably happen in the Orlando-area when POTUS winds up in Kissimmee?
VOTERS ARE VOTING – As of 5 a.m., Floridians had cast a record 4.9 million pre-Election Day ballots, 1.96 million (40 percent) by Republicans and 1.95 million (39.8 percent) by Democrats. That’s a GOP lead of 9,755 raw votes and 0.2 percentage points four days before Election Day. That should concern the GOP. At this point yesterday morning, the GOP lead was 18,399 raw votes and 0.41 points (numbers that declined by mid-morning after the state updated its numbers). For some historical perspective, the Democrats also have reason to fret because in 2012 they actually led the GOP in pre-Election Day ballots cast four days before Election Day. Then, Democrats were ahead by 2.2 percentage points (about 76,000 raw votes of the nearly 3.5 million ballots cast). With that cushion four years ago, Obama beat Mitt Romney in Florida by less than a point. The early ballot numbers are updated throughout the day, and if this week’s average of 366,000 daily total of new votes holds, we’re on pace to hit 5.2 million votes today.
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WHY DEMOCRATS/CLINTON MIGHT BE IN BETTER SHAPE – Democratic consultant Steve Schale pointed out yesterday that about 50,000 of the total early voting Republicans this election were registered as Democrats in 2012. That was before the great rebalancing of the voter rolls this election in the Trump Era, when conservative Dixiecrats finally switched jerseys and registered as Republicans (many to vote in the presidential primary). Here’s another data point in Clinton’s favor: about 55 percent of the total early ballots have been cast by women, and more women back Clinton than men who back Trump, according to most polls. So more women voters is better news for her. Also, active registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans, by about 2.5 percentage points. That doesn’t sound like a lot until you factor in that Florida has nearly 12.9 million active voters and so the margin is 327,000 voters. A big wild card in any of these analyses are independents, who have cast 20 percent of the ballots so far.
UNCHARTED WATERS – The early voting numbers are just gangbusters. Are we still on pace for a 72 percent or so turnout? It doesn’t look that way anymore. In 2012, 56 percent of the vote – 4.8 million ballots – were cast early and absentee. We exceeded that total YESTERDAY, five days BEFORE Election Day. For those folks wondering, in 2012, Democrats had a 3.7 percentage point lead over Republicans in casting in-person early votes and absentee ballots. Republicans won Election Day by 1.1 points. President Obama carried Florida by less than a point, 74,309 votes.
CAVEAT POLLSTER – So who wins? Who knows? The polls show a tight race, but beware: Many of the recent surveys are robopolls that miss cellphone-only voters. And cellphone-only voters tend to be young, minority and poor – that is, more-Democratic leaning. So those surveys, a few of which just happen to be conducted by GOP consultants, can lean Republican simply due to technology. Not all robopolls are bad. But some of these polls look like garbage. And some look like garbage by design and intent to make the polling averages appear to show a tighter race than might actually exist. I wouldn’t put yesterday’s Univision poll of 800 likely Hispanic Florida voters in the garbage category. Many Florida surveys don’t poll that many general election voters. And none has done as thorough a job in examining this key demographic group. Still, it’s just a poll, it’s not an election result…
-- “Clinton’s 30-point lead in Florida Hispanic poll is ‘terrifying’ to GOP nationwide,” by Marc Caputo: Clinton’s 60 percent to 30 percent advantage over Trump with Florida Hispanics overall is fueled by outsized support from voters of Puerto Rican descent, who favor her 71 percent to 19 percent, according to the survey of 800 likely Hispanic voters jointly conducted for Univision by Republican-leaning Tarrance Group and Democratic-leaning Bendixen & Amandi International. Trump, meanwhile, has relatively weak backing from Cuban-Americans. They historically vote Republican but only support him over Clinton by 49 percent to 42 percent, the poll shows. And Hispanic voters of other national origins heavily prefer Clinton over Trump by 71 percent to 20 percent. The overall margin of error for the poll is 3.5 points.
If the poll is right and if Hispanics cast 16 percent of the ballots in an election with 72 percent overall turnout, Clinton would build a margin of 437,000 more votes than Trump. http://politi.co/2fk0ONW
WHY REPUBLICANS FOUGHT THIS -- “Democrats outpace GOP during extended registration time; NPA tops both,” by POLITICO Florida’s Matt Dixon: An extended voter registration deadline following a brief partisan fight in federal court has given a boost to Democrats, who outpaced Republicans by more than 8,000 votes. But voters outside the two major parties far outnumbered them both. During the extra week of voter registration, Democrats registered 36,543 voters, while Republicans registered 27,281. But 49,030 voters with no connection to either party were added to the rolls, according to an analysis conducted by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and obtained by POLITICO Florida. http://politi.co/2f6l1po
BROKEN WINDOWS -- “Tensions high during heated election,” by Panama City News Herald’s Katie Landeck: “A broken window at the Bay County Republican Headquarters could be considered symbolic of an election season that already has strained relationships across party lines. On Monday night, a vandal threw a rock at the GOP Headquarters, 1607 Lisenby Ave., shattering a pane of glass and breaking the screen below a Trump Pence sign. ‘It could be a disgruntled Democrat or it could be a kid on Halloween night,’ said James Waterstradt, chairman of the local Republican Party. 'It could just be a kid being malicious on Halloween, but no, I don’t really believe that.' A police report has been filed with the Panama City Police Department, but officials did not have an update Wednesday afternoon. The incident is the first time someone has vandalized the Republicans’ headquarters since Waterstradt started working there in 1983, although he was quick to add this certainly isn’t the first time in history a political office has been vandalized.” http://bit.ly/2f6tMjn
-- “DCCC targets black voters in 13th Congressional District,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Charlie Frago: http://bit.ly/2fhygnL
-- “Voting groups say Florida leads in calls to elections hotline,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Michael Auslen: http://bit.ly/2eZXl8L
LIFE IN A TIME OF ZIKA -- “‘Congenital Zika syndrome’ new name for group of birth defects,” by The Washington Post’s Lena H. Sun: “researchers have concluded a Zika infection during pregnancy is linked to a distinct pattern of birth defects they are officially calling congenital Zika syndrome. In a report released Thursday in JAMA Pediatrics, researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention describe five types of birth defects that are either unique to Zika or occur rarely with other infections during pregnancy: severe microcephaly … decreased brain tissue … damage to the back of the eye … joints with limited range of motion … too much muscle tone, restricting movement soon after birth.” http://bit.ly/2fmEYb8
FRANKENSKEETERS -- “Miami-Dade to consider deploying GMO mosquitoes in fight against Zika,” by Miami Herald’s Daniel Chang: “Entering their fourth month of fighting a local outbreak of Zika, Miami-Dade officials are considering releasing thousands of genetically engineered mosquitoes in Miami Beach and Miami’s Little River neighborhood to reduce the numbers of insects and help stop the virus’s spread, county officials said this week. Miami Beach commissioners were the first to propose using genetically engineered mosquitoes in September, when they were faced with throngs of protesters opposed to the county’s aerial spraying of the pesticide naled over sections of the city to reduce the number of insects that carry the virus. Since then, Miami-Dade officials, who oversee mosquito control in Miami Beach and Miami, also have taken an interest in the genetically engineered insects bred and sold by the biotechnology company Oxitec, which has been collaborating with the Florida Keys Mosquito Control District for a potential trial release in Monroe County.” http://hrld.us/2eteiYn
MARIJUANA WARS -- “Crestview man ‘happy’ to see Amendment 2 pass,” by NWF Daily News’ Jennie McKeon: “In 2014, Amendment 2 was narrowly defeated with a 57.62 percent majority voting yes. According to Florida's constitution, the amendment requires 60 percent supermajority vote to pass. But some folks in Northwest Florida, such as Crestview resident Lance Kreck, are optimistic that the amendment will pass this time. Kreck is making plans to start farming medical cannabis and hemp locally through his business, Happy Herb Organics. ‘It started with a question,’ he said.” http://bit.ly/2fhw9k1
SOLAR FLARES -- “Brevard groups: Vote no on solar ‘sham’ Amendment 1,” by Florida Todays’ Rick Neale: “Amendment 1 is a pseudo-solar initiative that was crafted to fool voters and tighten the fossil-fuel energy companies’ grip on Florida’s electrical grid, a variety of Brevard County groups and companies say. ‘Conservatives are opposed. Liberals are opposed. Consumer groups are opposed. Environmentalists are opposed. The solar industry is opposed. Newspapers are opposed,’ Phil Stasik, president of the Space Coast Progressive Alliance, said during an anti-Amendment 1 news conference Thursday in Titusville. ‘It seems that the only group that's supporting this amendment is the group that wrote and is financing the push for it: the monopoly utilities,’ Stasik said. Press-conference participants included the progressive SCPA, the nonpartisan League of Women Voters of the Space Coast, the environmentally minded Sierra Club Turtle Coast Group and Marine Resources Council, and private solar companies Clean Footprint of Cape Canaveral and the Melbourne-based Solar Energy Systems of Brevard.” http://on.flatoday.com/2fmB9Cy
-- “Florida Election Blog: Solar amendment a ‘sham’?” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Dave Breitenstein: http://on.tdo.com/2fhBOJc
NO? -- “Editorial: Does Enterprise Florida deserve $85 million?” by Treasure Coast Newspaper’s Editorial Board: “The request is somewhat audacious, especially given recent revelations at Enterprise Florida. Gov. Rick Scott plans to ask the 2017 Legislature for $85 million for the state's lead economic development agency. The money would be used to attract businesses to the Sunshine State. Scott requested $250 million for Enterprise Florida during the previous legislative session, but was rebuffed by the state House. His new request might suffer a similar fate. House Speaker-designate Richard Corcoran, R-Land O'Lakes, has voiced opposition to funding the agency. And some lawmakers are skeptical of Enterprise Florida's use of taxpayers' money. The public-private agency is tasked with bringing high-paying jobs to the state. But its payroll demonstrates the agency has created some high-paying jobs for itself, too.” http://bit.ly/2eFa4un
‘GO BACK TO AFRICA’ -- “Updated charges bring more trouble for Jacksonville judge accused of misconduct,” by The Florida Times-Union’s Larry Hannan: “More details became public Thursday in complaints against Jacksonville-based Circuit Judge Mark Hulsey, including inappropriately listing endorsements, regularly having others perform his work and pressuring an assistant to say he hadn’t done anything wrong. The Florida Judicial Qualifications Commission filed the updated complaint Thursday. Hulsey, who narrowly won re-election in August, is accused of using sexist language and making racially charged remarks, including saying black people should 'go back to Africa' and women staff attorneys are 'like cheerleaders who talk during the national anthem.' Hulsey has denied all the charges against him in court filings and said he harbors no ill will toward women or black people. The charges include concerns that Hulsey used staff attorneys to prepare scripts for routine judicial tasks and required one attorney to regularly do his work for him. Chief Judge Mark Mahon previously told Hulsey to stop overusing staff attorneys, the documents said.” http://bit.ly/2ejv9JO
NEW SLAVERY -- “Young Cuban women lured to Miami on promises of freedom, forced into prostitution,” by Miami Herald’s Nora Gámez Torres and Brenda Medina: “As a means to flee Cuba, six young women agreed to work in Miami as exotic dancers. That was the deal to pay off a $20,000 smuggling fee from the island to Mexico and ultimately into the United States. But instead of simply stripping, they were forced into sex slavery in Miami. They were locked up, mistreated and forced into prostitution until police rescued them in September, according to federal court documents. Their ordeal has become the first known criminal case involving Cuban women brought to the United States for sexual exploitation. Prosecutor charges that 31-year-old Silvio Clark Morales — who faces trial later this month on 16 charges, including sexual trafficking and exploitation of women — offered to guide the women out of Cuba and find them jobs as strippers in Miami, promising they would not have to have sex with clients. In return, the women agreed to pay him $100 a day of their earnings until they paid off the $20,000.” http://hrld.us/2eF9dKh
GOING CLEAR -- “New penthouse plans in downtown Clearwater fuel Tom Cruise, Scientology rumors,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Tracey McManus: “Three years into construction on the 10-story SkyView condo tower in the heart of downtown, plans for the project have been revised to accommodate one tenant with luxurious taste. The building was originally proposed as 51 two-bedroom units, but contractors filed paper work with the city on Sept. 9 to turn the top three floors into a lavish penthouse complete with a gym, theater, pool, garden, game room, four bedrooms and a loft. The permit application also includes plans for a private garage with a car elevator on the second floor with a corridor leading to a wing with a flight simulator, office space and sports storage area. The $3 million penthouse addition is under review with city planners and would leave the long-vacant SkyView tower at 400 Cleveland St., across from the Capitol Theatre, with 42 units, according to the permit application.” http://bit.ly/2fhz9Nd
ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN… AND ANIMALS
-- “Tourism still in recovery phase as St. Augustine sheds its image as a storm-battered destination,” by The St. Augustine Record’s Stuart Korfhage: http://bit.ly/2ethfsb
-- “Lawyers for Death Row inmate fire back at Bondi,” by Ocala Star Banner’s Dara Kam: http://bit.ly/2fJuh6w
-- “One of largest cruise ships makes Port Canaveral home,” by Florida Today’s Dave Berman: http://on.flatoday.com/2fAvkqd
-- “Body may have sat at West Melbourne Walmart for a month, police say,” by Florida Today’s J.D. Gallop: http://on.flatoday.com/2fklXaL
-- “State puts up a stink over Fort Lauderdale's sewage spills,” by Sun Sentinel’s Larry Barszewski: http://bit.ly/2fAvii2
-- “UCF seeks more money for mental health counseling,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Gabrielle Russon: http://bit.ly/2f6HkLH
-- “A 26-mile hike 50 years ago led to 1,400-mile Florida Trail,” by Ocala Star Banner’s Andy Fillmore: http://bit.ly/2etaTJf
MYSTERY MONKEY BUSINESS, PT. 2 -- “Tampa Bay’s new ‘Mystery Monkey: The Sequel’ is on the run once again,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Sara DiNatale: “There’s a monkey on the loose who has dodged trappers, crossed county lines and appears to have traveled up to 30 miles in just one week. A rhesus macaque, native to Asia, was spotted last week along the Pasco County coast. It was seen near Aripeka and by Hudson Beach, hanging out Oct. 26 along the residential boat docks, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. Then the new Mystery Monkey was spotted the next day across the Pasco-Pinellas county line, in a subdivision in Palm Harbor. That should sound familiar to Tampa Bay residents. Cornelius the first Mystery Monkey once led wildlife officers on a 4-year hunt. Cornelius spent years on the lam, building a social media fan base and infuriating trappers again and again before he was finally captured on Oct. 24, 2012 — four years to the week of this most recent sighting. That was also a presidential election year, by the way.” http://bit.ly/2fkiMQp
NUTTY -- “Squirrel leaves several people bleeding after attack at Deltona seniors complex,” by The Daytona Beach News-Journal’s Patricio G. Balona: “A squirrel caused havoc at a Deltona senior living facility Thursday afternoon when it attacked several people in the activity room leaving them with bleeding bites. Several people were left bleeding before the animal was booted from the building, a caller told a 9-1-1 dispatcher. The caller said the animal attack occurred inside the activity room of the Sterling Court Apartments, 1001 Alabaster Way. ‘It’s jumping on people and biting them and scratching them,’ the caller told a dispatcher. ‘It’s still in there and people are bleeding.’ The incident was reported at 2:49 p.m., according to a dispatch log. Emergency and rescue workers at the scene, who said the animal may be rabid, reported that the squirrel went after people outside, latched onto a person and was somehow thrown indoors.” http://bit.ly/2e6UknH