Democrats are intensifying their efforts to yoke down-ballot Republicans to Donald Trump, savaging an ever-increasing number of GOP candidates as pawns of their party’s embattled presidential nominee.
The choreographed assault, funded by millions of dollars from Democratic candidates, party committees, and deep-pocketed outside groups, is taking place in battlegrounds spanning the geographic and ideological spectrum. On Thursday, Democrat Jim Mowrer, who is running for a southwest Iowa congressional seat, will release a hard-hitting TV ad that likens Trump’s opposition to abortion to that of his Republican opponent, GOP Rep. David Young.
“And even though Donald Trump brags about sexually assaulting women,” the ad says, in reference to a recently-leaked 2005 bombshell tape depicting Trump speaking in lewd terms, “David Young continues to support him for president. And now we understand why.”
Another Democratic candidate, Steve Santarsiero of Pennsylvania, will unveil a commercial declaring that his Republican rival, Brian Fitzpatrick, wants to defund Planned Parenthood – just like Trump. “Donald Trump and Brian Fitzpatrick are dangerous for women,” Santarsiero, who is seeking a suburban Philadelphia-based congressional seat, says in a direct-to-camera appeal.
The new spots cap a flood of Democratic advertising in recent days that has focused on Trump, whose candidacy has cratered amid a series of lackluster debate performances and the release of the tape. Party officials, who’ve conducted extensive polling research gauging how Trump will impact down-ballot Republicans, say they’ve determined that focusing on the GOP nominee presents them with their best opportunity to diminish the GOP’s congressional majorities.
They argue voters are willing to take out their anger over Trump on down-ballot Republicans – whether they’ve supported Trump or not.
“We’ve known from the beginning that this would be a nationalized election and that this election would be about Donald Trump,” said Kelly Ward, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee executive director. “He’s the lens through which voters view this election.”
Democrats believe the offensive can be particularly effective in parts of the country where there are large numbers of Latinos – a group that has been particularly repelled by Trump’s candidacy. Texas Democrat Pete Gallego, running in a district where Hispanics represent 70 percent of the population, has aired a spot noting that Trump has called Mexicans “rapists” and “murderers.”
And on Monday, House Majority PAC, the principal Democratic outside group focused on House races, released a pair of commercials tying GOP Rep. David Valadao, who represents a Latino-majority district in California’s Central Valley, to Trump. One of them, which is narrated in Spanish, uses clips of Trump’s oft-repeated promise to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border.
“Donald Trump is an enormous liability to Republican House candidates and we’re working to ensure they’re held accountable for supporting him and standing by as he became their party’s nominee,” said Ali Lapp, House Majority PAC’s executive director.
The gambit, however, isn’t without risk.
Republicans, who’ve conducted extensive Trump-related polling of their own, say they’ve found little evidence that voters automatically attach their perceptions of Trump to those running further down the ballot.
“Republicans have a challenging environment because of the way the presidential race is being run, but the idea that they can turn any Republican member of Congress into Donald Trump is insulting to voters and isn’t working,” said Mike Shields, the president of Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC devoted to preserving the House GOP majority.
But Democrats, in a sign of confidence in their strategy, are also using the attack in areas that one might not expect. In Arizona, a relatively conservative state, Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick has launched TV ads noting that Republican Sen. John McCain “endorsed Donald Trump for president 60 times, even after Trump insulted women, Latinos, people with disabilities, a Gold Star family, and veterans with PTSD.”
In the battle for a conservative northeastern Wisconsin congressional seat, meanwhile, Democrat Tom Nelson has begun airing a commercial that uses footage of the now-infamous “Access Hollywood” tape.
In some instances, Democrats are finding creative ways to attach Republicans to the GOP nominee. The party has released an ad that photo-shops Republican Rep. David Jolly into a variety of pictures with Trump, with each showing the two shaking hands, embracing, or standing side-by-side. Jolly, who says he won’t vote for Trump and hasn’t met him, has called the commercial false and has asked TV stations to take it out of rotation.
Democrats spent most of the summer debating when – and even whether – it would be wise to engage in a nationalized anti-Trump campaign. Other attacks, such as ones hitting Republicans for wanting to privatize Social Security or defund Planned Parenthood, often polled better in crucial races.
But the release of the 2005 tape, Democrats say, changed everything – to the degree that major party groups are now involved in an elaborate effort to make Trump the centerpiece of down-ballot campaigns. While candidates, outside groups, and party committees are not allowed to coordinate, they can communicate to each other through public means. Last week, the DCCC updated its website to highlight GOP Rep. Lee Zeldin’s past support for Trump – sending a flare to other groups interested in getting involved in the race.
“Voters in New York’s first congressional district need to see that even after Trump’s most recent comments bragging about sexually assaulting women, Congressman Lee Zeldin is sticking by Trump and continues to be one of Trump’s strongest supporters,” the committee wrote.
And when voters scroll to the bottom of Pennsylvania Democrat Katie McGinty’s website, they’ll notice something peculiar: Detailed, fine print-like instructions for how to attack GOP Sen. Pat Toomey.
“Voters in Philadelphia need to know that Pat Toomey has stood by his man, Donald Trump. But when the bombshell over sexual assault by Donald Trump hit,” the website says, “Pat Toomey ran for cover, hiding his support for Trump.”
Republicans have so far been able to avoid too-close links to Trump. Following Trump’s disastrous first debate, an outside GOP group conducted a series of surveys in swing congressional districts – including one in the suburban Twin Cities area and one in southern Las Vegas. The verdict: Trump had taken a dive, but the Republican congressional candidates were surviving, and in some cases making gains.
That Trump has veered so wildly from Republican orthodoxy, Shields argued, may be particularly helpful for congressional Republicans looking to avoid his shadow.
“Donald Trump has his own brand,” Shields said. “He’s not running as a Republican.”
Democrats face another hurdle: The map.
The post-2010 round of redistricting created a congressional plan that placed many once endangered GOP seats in safer territory – something that could now make Trump-centered attacks less effective. In some instances, Democrats concede they are trying to tether Republicans to Trump in areas where the Republican nominee is performing strongly. In the Iowa and Wisconsin districts, for example, Democratic strategists say they’ve conducted polling showing Trump beating Hillary Clinton.
“Most of these districts are pretty well drawn into the Republican column,” said former Virginia Rep. Tom Davis, a past National Republican Congressional Committee chairman. “Trying to tie them to Trump might not be that strong if Trump’s carrying the district.”