By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)
Good Trumpday morning. WHAT WE LEARNED last night: 1) For politicos who love the game, last night’s Trump-Sanders triumph was the most exciting, crazy possible outcome: A pair of double-digits wins ... On the Republican side, by someone who wasn’t a Republican as recently as four years ago. ... For Dems, by someone whose official Senate bio still brags he is “the longest serving independent member of Congress in American history.”
2) Trump is real. TrumpISM is real. 3) Polls still work. 4) Bush lives. 5) Kasich soars. 6) Trump even stronger: Survival of two governors prevents or delays establishment coalition. 7) Both parties face long, brutal fights. Delegate math will quickly become a thing again. 8) Exit polls humiliating for Clinton: She had neither women nor trust. 9) Bye, bye, Christie, Carly, Carson.
10) Rubio is bleeding: Marco Roboto moment was no paper cut. A reality unthinkable four days ago: Marco could be dead if he doesn’t bounce back in S.C. primary 10 days from now, Feb. 20.
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QUOTE OF THE NIGHT – Jeb: “I’m not dead!” http://politi.co/1V30uAc
5 STATS say it all -- Exit polls, via AP: “Fewer than half the ... Democrats ... find Clinton to be honest and trustworthy ... Sanders won a majority of ... women ... Seven in 10 women under 45 voted for Sanders ... About 4 in 10 voters in both the Democratic and Republican primaries said they identify as independents ... Two-thirds of GOP voters say they support a temporary ban on non-citizen Muslims entering the United States.” http://apne.ws/1mrLqjI
AP LATEST: Sanders 60.0% ... Clinton 38.4%
--1) Trump 35.1% ... 2) Kasich 15.9% ... 3) Cruz 11.6% ... 4) Bush 11.1% ... 5) Marco 10.6% ... 6) Christie 7.5% ... 7) Fiorina 4.2% ... 8) Carson 2.3%
--MAPS, county results, delegate counts http://politi.co/1WdQjJt
COMING ATTRACTIONS – “Bush and Rubio race to the bottom: ‘South Carolina is gonna be a bloodbath,’ one Rubio aide says,” by Marc Caputo and Anna Palmer: “Exit polls showed that a sizable number of voters decided late, that they were influenced by recent debates and that they didn’t break for Rubio or Bush, but instead chose Trump and Kasich. Kasich’s second-place finish represents a setback for Rubio and Bush ... Cruz’s third-place finish also reflected badly on Rubio and Bush.” http://politi.co/1KbrPQv
BIGGEST IRONY – Charles Krauthammer to Bill O’Reilly, in live 11 p.m. edition of the “Factor”: Christie shows “you can win a dramatic exchange in a debate, and wind up dead. That was essentially a Kamikaze attack.”
CHUCK TODD captures the moment in 8 p.m. NBC special report anchored by Lester Holt: “This is a shot across the BOW at both political parties, both political establishments. Arguably, 10-plus years of frustration with Washington leadership, boiling over in New Hampshire tonight. What this means: We’ll have a long slog ... for the heart and soul of both parties. ... This is something else, Lester.” Video http://nbcnews.to/1O2xfIh
TOP TWEETS -- Manu Raju: “The longer Jeb stays in this race, the more likely that Donald Trump will be nominated by the GOP, [says] Rubio spox @AlexConant” ... @anniekarni: “Sentiment I hear regularly from Clinton allies who still feel confident she will win nomination - thank God it’s Bernie, not Warren or Biden” ...@pourmecoffee: “Kasich sounds like the waiter who got a $1,000 tip with a nice note. He can’t even believe it happened but he appreciates it” ... @jeffroe, Cruz campaign manager: “NH reported spending... $36M Bush; $18.5M Christie; $15.2M Rubio; $12.1M Kasich; $3.7M Trump; $1.8M Fiorina; $580K Cruz” ...
... @jaketapper: “succeeding where Lieberman & Specter failed, @BernieSanders becomes first Jew to ever win a US major party political primary”... @davidaxelrod: “Stunning data point: @berniesanders won handily among NH liberals ... but also among moderates” ... @ezraklein: “This shows how good of a candidate Bernie Sanders is — he’s making donating to his campaign into a statement against money in politics” ...@chucktodd: “The only income level Clinton won? Dems who make $200k or more. Sanders won all ... income levels below that” ... @RyanLizza: “The pressure on Obama to endorse Hillary will be intense.”
GLENN THRUSH “Off Message” column, with 5 takeaways: “Hillary is in real trouble. Will she panic? ... [Kasich is] likely to be a cellar dweller in South Carolina and several upcoming states, but if his big second-place finish translates into a string of decent fundraising days, he might stick around for the good stuff: the March 8 Michigan primary and the winner-take-all contest in his home state a week later.” http://politi.co/1QqRQYw
FIRST LOOK -- DAVID BROCK, “The Real Debate Happening”: “The truth is that few serious policy analysts, experts or commentators, take Senator Sanders’ sketchy policies seriously. His proposals ... are little more than a flurry of press releases and empty pronouncements ... His policies are a Potemkin village. Over the course of the coming weeks, it is Senator Sanders’ policies that should be evaluated and held to the same scrutiny that has been applied to Secretary Clinton in her public service career.” http://bit.ly/1V2DQbp
DRUDGE banner (red): “REVOLUTION!” ... HUFFPOST pairs pics of Kasich and Trump, “A TALE OF TWO PARTIES: Civility, Empathy, Compassionate Conservatism vs. Racist, Sexist, Xenophobic Demagoguery” ... Earlier Huffpost banner, “NH GOES RACIST SEXIST XENOPHOBIC.”
N.Y. TABS: Daily News cover shows Trump in clown makeup, “DAWN of the BRAIN DEAD: Clown comes back to life with N.H. win as mindless zombies turn out in droves” http://nydn.us/1KEJ9Ny ... N.Y. Post cover is Hillary: “BERNED! Sanders crushes Hillary in NH.” http://bit.ly/1Xy78jU
INSIDE THE CAMPAIGNS -- “Clinton allies grapple with crushing loss,” by Annie Karni: “Hillary and Bill Clinton knew she would lose ... but not by this much. ... Staffing and strategy will be reassessed. The message, which so spectacularly failed in New Hampshire ... is also going to be reworked – with race at the center of it. Clinton is set to campaign with African-American victims of law enforcement deaths, like Trayvon Martin’s mother and Eric Garner’s mother. And the campaign ... is expected to push a new focus on systematic racism, criminal justice reform, voting rights and gun violence.” http://politi.co/1RobLMw
--“Why the Democratic primary is about to get racial: There’s a reason Bernie Sanders' first campaign stop after New Hampshire is with Al Sharpton,” by Isaac Dovere and Gabe Debenedetti in Concord: “If Sanders is truly going to become a Barack Obama-style Clinton-slayer of 2016, he knows he’s going to need to start racking up Obama-level support among non-white voters, and quickly, because the Democratic primary is about to come down to race. The Sanders campaign understands this, which is why the first campaign stop after his blowout victory in New Hampshire is a breakfast meeting Wednesday with the Rev. Al Sharpton in Harlem’s iconic Sylvia’s restaurant.” http://politi.co/1RobEAC
--“Bush plans scorched-earth attack on Kasich, Rubio,” by Alex Isenstadt in Manchester: “In an internal memo circulated late Tuesday evening, the campaign distributed talking points to top campaign aides and surrogates, highlighting lines of attack they plan to take against both candidates. ... ‘Governor Kasich has little to no chance in South Carolina, and does not have a national organization that can compete ... Kasich has consistently supported gutting the military.’” http://politi.co/20obn13
KEVIN MADDEN pointed out to Anderson Cooper on CNN that the race now gets EXPENSIVE: air wars, rather than states that reward retail campaigning. On Kasich: “He’s going to have to wake up tomorrow and raise a ton of money.”
UPSHOT’s Nate Cohn, “Why Donald Trump Won Twice in One Night”: “The results extend his biggest advantage: a deeply divided opposition. They all but ensure that several mainstream Republicans will remain in the race — perhaps even long enough for Mr. Trump to take a big delegate lead on Super Tuesday, March 1.” http://nyti.ms/1TbYF6t
MIKE BARNICLE for Daily Beast, “They Vote for Trump and Sanders to Feel Like Winners,” datelined Manchester: “The people, ordinary people, attracted to both men ... have been left on life’s daily battleground, wounded and untended to by a political system that simply does not work.” http://thebea.st/1Q6wOxY
MARCO RUBIO finally says what he shoulda said: “I know many people disappointed. I'm disappointed ... I want you to understand something: Our disappointment tonight is not on you, it’s on me. It’s on me. I did not do well on Saturday night. So, listen to this: That will never happen again. It will never happen again.”
--RUBIO’S gracious remarks were very helpful with his donors, who saw them as classy and courageous after – as Megyn Kelly pointed out – he squandered three days denying a problem.
HILLARY also gave a great speech, looked ready to fight: “Thank you all very, very much. My goodness. I don’t what he we’d have done tonight if we’d actually won. ... I know I have had a blessed life, but I also know what it’s like to stumble and fall. And so many people across America know that feeling.” Neil Cavuto, anchoring Fox Business (hey, we were flipping): “I almost thought she won.”
--ROBBY MOOK, Hillary campaign manager, in memo to supporters: “The nomination will very likely be won in March ... [W]e believe that Hillary Clinton is well positioned to build a strong – potentially insurmountable – delegate lead next month.” http://politi.co/20V18DE
-- “How Much Trouble Is Hillary In? 10 political gurus assess ... loss” for Politico Magazine: Bob Shrum, Beth Meyers, Jim Manley, Jacob Heilbrunn, Brent Colburn, Ron Bonjean, Doug Schoen, Spencer Zwick, Bill Scher, Donna Brazile! http://politi.co/1SHLuuh
TRUMP: “So beautiful. So beautiful. ... We’re going to build a wall. It’s going to be built. It's not even, believe it or not, it’s not even a difficult thing to do. ... We are going to make America so great again. Maybe greater than ever before.”
BERNIE spoke so long that Charles Krauthammer called it “his State of the Union.”
TOP STORY (and it ain’t N.H.) – “Intelligence officials: IS determined to strike US this year,” by AP’s Deb Riechmann and Richard Lardner: “Marine Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, [testified on the Hill that] the Islamic State will probably conduct additional attacks in Europe and then attempt the same in the U.S. He said U.S. intelligence agencies believe IS leaders will be ‘increasingly involved in directing attacks rather than just encouraging lone attackers.’” http://apne.ws/1PknYzg
VALERIE JARRETT blog post: “Ahead of the President’s trip to Springfield today to mark the 9 year anniversary of announcing his candidacy, White House Senior Advisor Valerie Jarrett went back and looked at the President’s 2007 speech using the Genius annotation tool -- noting both what the day was like and how we delivered on his vision for creating a more perfect union - from building an economy ready to compete in the digital age, to finally fixing our broken health care system, to expanding broadband access.” http://go.wh.gov/springfield
#THISTOWN -- A Playbooker emails: “In Davos a few weeks ago, Zeke Emanuel was talking about the election with Eric Cantor (in and of itself a strange pairing). Cantor said Trump would not win a single Republican primary. Zeke said ‘want to bet dinner?’ Now Cantor owes him. It’s not the first time this happened as Justice Scalia lost a bet, and expensive dinner, to Zeke when the ACA was signed into law.”
TRAIL PIC -- Brian Bakst (@Stowydad): “The Clinton spouse New Hampshire campaign uniform -- Hillary in 1992 and Bill in 2016” (both in red plaid shirts) http://bit.ly/1Q6G8Ip
DAN BALZ “The Take” column on WashPost A1, “Clarity may finally arrive in South and West”: “a moment of triumph for a pair of candidates who have tapped anti-establishment anger and energy across the political spectrum. Everything that shaped the politics of 2015 came together to produce a seismic result, even though the contours of the finish had been forecast by months of polling.” http://wapo.st/1Pklxgf
WHAT N.H. IS READING: Union Leader banner, “Sanders, Trump take NH” ... Concord Monitor banner, “DECISIVE WINS FOR TRUMP, SANDERS.”
DEAD TREES: Las Vegas Review-Journal, “OUTSIDERS IN” ... Denver Post, “Decisive wins” ... Boston Globe banner, “Sanders, Trump take N.H.: Anti-establishment message resounds in both parties; Clinton put on uncertain path; 4 bunched far behind GOP leader” ... Dallas Morning News, “Anyone’s race -- Only thing certain: Voters are craving change” ...
... N.Y. Times 2-col. lead, “TRUMP AND SANDERS WIN RESOUNDINGLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: Ride Working-Class Anger to Victories— Kasich Is 2nd in Big G.O.P. Field.” See the page. http://nyti.ms/1or0ShD ... WSJ 5-col. lead, “Trump, Sanders Roll in N.H.” ... WashPost banner, “Sanders and Trump roll to victory” ... USA Today banner, “SANDERS, TRUMP TAKE N.H.”
TOMORROW’S DEBATE: Sanders v. Clinton, 9 p.m. ET in Milwaukee, hosted by “PBS NewsHour,” in partnership with Facebook and sanctioned by the DNC. Live on PBS, and streaming on “NewsHour” website. Gwen Ifill and Judy Woodruff moderate.
BEHIND THE CURTAIN -- Milwaukee Journal Sentinel p. 1A, “Ready for national spotlight,” by Karen Herzog: “The water in the external tank for the bathroom trailer placed just offstage for one of the candidates to use during commercial breaks will freeze below 10 degrees. The mercury ... is expected to dip to 5 degrees Thursday night, said Randall Trumbull-Holper, director of facilities for the [University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee] Peck School of the Arts. The trailer is heated, but the water tank isn’t. Trumbull-Holper has it figured out, though: ‘If nothing else, we’ll find a heater and just point it at the tank.’” http://bit.ly/1XhIy6v
FUN READ – “Donald Trump Clearly Doesn't Understand How Dogs Work,” by HuffPost’s Nick Wing: “‘Like a dog’ is ... one of Donald Trump’s favorite insulting comparisons ... Trump uses the expression to describe behavior that simply doesn’t apply to dogs. It’s unclear if he’s just lazy, or if he’s truly unfamiliar with canine behavior.” With 7 Trump tweets in which he says “like a dog” http://huff.to/1Wd4UVG
NEW DNC video, “The GOPfather,” with music you’d hear in a mob movie, pretends that Trump is the Godfather and has him saying things like: “I have a good life, I have a great family and I built a great business.” 1-min. video http://bit.ly/1Sf9FQn
CLICKER -- “The 15 Saddest Moments of Jeb Bush’s Presidential Campaign,” by GQ’s Freddie Campion: “Starred in this painfully unnecessary ode to modern technology. ... Released a video of himself struggling to put on a hoodie.” http://bit.ly/1Q88F0g
2016 PLAYERS – “Clinton To Tap Education Department Aide As Director Of Black Media,” by BuzzFeed’s Darren Sands: “Denise Horn, a veteran of the Obama reelection campaign in 2012 and assistant press secretary at the Department of Education, will begin with the Clinton campaign this month as director of African American media ... Horn formerly worked for Facebook. ... Horn will also engage spiritual leaders and other grassroots organizers.” http://bzfd.it/1Wd4oa3
SPOTTED: Walter Isaacson and James Carville, avoiding New Hampshire and riding on the jesters’ float in yesterday’s Rex parade in New Orleans. Pic http://bit.ly/1KEr2Y7
YOU’RE INVITED -- POLITICO CAUCUS DOUBLE-HEADER tomorrow afternoon in Charleston:POLITICO’s South Carolina Caucus members get together for a deep-dive discussion about the energy policy issues facing the next president. Speakers include: Hillary For America Energy Policy Adviser Trevor Houser, The Hoover Institution’s Jeremy Carl, The Electric Cooperatives of S.C., Inc.’s Mike Couick, Bold Nebraska’s Jane Kleeb, Coastal Conservation League’s Laurin Manning, Brawley Templeton, LLC’s Catherine Templeton, Inez Tenenbaum, and Nelson Mullins Riley & Scarborough LLP’s David Wilkins. Tomorrow at 3 p.m. at Alumni Hall at the College of Charleston. RSVP: http://bit.ly/1SBndFz
--Then at 5:30 p.m. tomorrow, join us at the College of Charleston as our insiders turn to the economic policy issues facing the next president. RSVP http://bit.ly/209mn7O
JACK SHAFER, “Why the Media is Desperate for Bloomberg to Run”: “A vast buffet of Bloomberg stories are there for the grabbing should Bloomberg announce. Stories about his money, his New York City mayoralty, his high-voltage wonkery, his money, his wacky centrism, his media empire, his personal relationships, his money, his crusades against soda, guns, and trans fat, and of course, his money.” http://politi.co/1SHjVkS
CROSSROADS TRIUMPH -- “Rove group wins IRS tax exemption,” by Ken Vogel: “The [IRS] ― in a move signaling a lack of appetite for policing big-money campaign spending ― granted tax exempt status to a Karl Rove-conceived non-profit group that pioneered secret money-funded attack ads. The group, Crossroads Grassroots Policy Strategies (or Crossroads GPS for short), has come to epitomize the new types of big-money spending made possible by the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision.” http://politi.co/1T638Gr
AWKWARD -- “Heritage will honor Ryan’s top staffer even as it tries to upend GOP budget,” by Jake Sherman: “The conservative Heritage Foundation is throwing a ‘reception’ to honor Speaker Paul Ryan’s chief of staff David Hoppe, even as its lobbying arm tries to derail the House Republican leadership’s 2017 budget.” http://politi.co/1nXiD7J
ED PESCE, leaving the Senate periodical press gallery, emails friends and colleagues: “I walked through the saloon swinging doors of the Senate Periodical Press Gallery ... for the first time in October 1990. George Mitchell and Bob Dole were the Senate Leaders. It has been my honor to serve on your Senate gallery staff for over 25 years and as your director for over 15 years. ... I am comfortable making this decision knowing that I am leaving the care of the Senate Periodical Press Gallery and our membership in the capable hands of Acting Director Justin Wilson and Assistant Director Shawna Blair.”
TRANSITIONS – New senior members of GOP comms team: “Lindsay Walters (@lyndseywalters) joins the RNC as a National Spokesperson. ... Lindsay comes to the RNC from the Rauner administration where she served as the Deputy Press Secretary for Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner and Citizens for Rauner. ... Rick Gorka (@Rick_Gorka) joins the RNC as Regional Communications Director for the northeast. He will be the primary point of contact and oversee the victory communications effort and staff in that region. ... In 2012, Rick served as Governor Mitt Romney’s traveling press secretary.”
OUT AND ABOUT -- Friends packed Capitol Lounge last night in celebration of Rep. Ed Royce comms. director Saat Alety’s 27th birthday. From hosts Kelsey Baron, Alyssa Hinman, Melissa Medina, Lila Nieves-Lee and Jordan Quinn: “It’s Saat’s birthday, and Mardi Gras, and wing night at the Lounge. Who said America isn’t still great?”
SPOTTED: Chairman Ed Royce, Peter Freeman, Kate Barlow, Darrin Schrader, Alex Gleason, Teresa Davis, Anthony Cimino, Anthony Walden, Carol Danko, Tom Hill, Courtney Webb, Mona Dooley, Sean Gard, Natalee Binkholder, Brett Quick, Blake Major, Peter Mihalick, Ryan Shucard, Caroline Taylor, Megan Burris, Mary Doocey, Eric Bolden, Elise Tollefson, Zoya Awan, Leslie Ogden, Sarah Corley.
SPORTS BLINK – Denver Post wraparound, “Won And A Million: At Civic Center and along a downtown Denver parade route Orange-clad fans celebrate the Broncos’ Super Bowl 50 win.” http://politi.co/1Q8omnX
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Judy Kaplan -- mother of Jonathan, Justin and Jordan
BIRTHDAYS: George Stephanopoulos, the pride of Fall River, Mass., is 55 ... Robert Iger, Walt Disney Co. chairman and CEO, is 65 ... Politico Magazine’s Margy Slattery ... Susan Crabtree, White House correspondent for the Washington Examiner and the pride of Redlands, Calif. ... Glenn Beck, founder of The Blaze, is 52 ... Targeted Victory’s newly married Scott Sendek of Targeted Victory rolled off a Motor City assembly line 35 years ago (h/t Brian Danza) ... media strategist Mindy Finn, president of Empowered Women and senior advisor to IMGE, who is an alum of Twitter, Romney, NRSC, RNC, and Bush-Cheney 2004 and the pride of Houston ... Cathy Gillespie ... John Sturm, the Newspaper Association’s former president and now associate vice president of federal and Washington relations for Notre Dame, representing the Fighting Irish in Washington (h/t Jerry Fritz) … Michael Levoff, a Mike Bloomberg, Romney and Huntsman NH alum now SVP of public affairs at Genting Americas ...
... CNN producer Mallory Thompson, an ABC News alum ... Barbee Ponder, GC and VP of regulatory affairs at Globalstar ... Stacy Kerans, SVP of brand marketing practice at Ketchum ... Izzy Klein, managing partner at Roberti Global: Irizarry Klein Roberti and a Schumer and Markey alum (h/ts Jon Haber) ... Jo-Marie St. Martin, a longtime Boehner senior aide and House staffer ... Michelle Levi Noe, CBS and ABC alum now director of special projects for Shriver Media ... NBC’s John Yang, the pride of Chillicothe, Ohio, who has also lived in Jerusalem ... Jessica Meyers, a Boston Globe and Politico alum now in Beijing … Kyle Trygstad, editor of National Journal Hotline … Karen Dahl ... Christopher Hartman ... Tanya Somanader, director of digital rapid response at The White House and a Pelosi and OFA alum ... Aly Bullock of the Incite Agency ... Lenny Dykstra ...
... Tim Graham of the Media Research Center and executive editor of NewsBusters.org ... Marisa Kashino, senior editor at Washingtonian ... Joanna Belanger, deputy political director at Everytown for Gun Safety and a CAP alum ... CNBC’s Jim Cramer ... Jim Pfaff, a Tim Huelskamp alum now running in Indiana’s 9th Congressional District, is 51 ... Rebecca Naomi Bash ... Hector F. Irastorza is 58 ... Kevin Duewel, a student at McGeorge Law School ... Clayton Keir, senior consultant at Booz Allen Hamilton ... Kevin Fitzgerald, the pride of Manitowoc, Wisc. ... Suzy Ballantyne (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ...
... Mimi Sheraton, legendary New York Times restaurant critic and food writer, is 9-0 (h/t Tom Baer) ... John Cummins, comms. director for Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), celebrating tonight at Union Pub (h/ts Mike Tadeo and Jillian Rogers) ... cinematographer Douglas Slocombe is 103 ... actor Robert Wagner is 86 ... Roberta Flack is 79 ... Olympic gold-medal swimmer Mark Spitz is 66 ... World Golf Hall of Famer Greg Norman is 61 ... retired MLB All-Star Lenny Dykstra is 53 ... Laura Dern is 49 ... Emma Roberts is 25 ... Makenzie Vega is 22 ... Chloe Grace Moretz is 19 ... actress Yara Shahidi is 16 (h/ts AP)