By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)
Good Sunday morning, and happy debate day. The NBC News—YouTube Democratic Candidates Debate (Clinton, Sanders, O’Malley), hosted by the Congressional Black Caucus Institute, airs from the Gaillard Center in Charleston, S.C. -- pre-show at 8 on MSNBC, and debate on NBC from 9 to 11 (NBC will simulcast the pre-show beginning at 8:50). Lester Holt is principal moderator, joined by Andrea Mitchell. Chuck Todd will anchor pre- and post-debate coverage from the spin room, joined by Kristen Welker.
NEW NBC/WSJ national horserace out at 9 a.m. -- Hillary 25-point lead: “Clinton is the first choice of 59 percent of Democratic primary voters, while Sanders gets the support of 34 percent. Martin O’Malley gets 2 percent.”
--Gabe Debenedetti’s “5 Things to Watch”: “How Sanders handles stardom: ... Sanders has picked up the nearly Trumpian tactic of reading survey numbers aloud during some of his appearances. And particularly in Iowa, the senator has started telling voters that he believes he’ll win there. It’s a curious case of managing expectations while Clinton’s staff has stressed for months that it doesn’t expect wins in either [Iowa or N.H.] ...
“If he cheers his own success on the debate stage, it could turn off voters who are on the fence, warned some Sanders sympathizers, and it could raise expectations unduly. If he lets too many mentions of his success seep into his policy fights with Clinton, it might annoy Iowans who now like him for his much-trumpeted political purity.” http://politi.co/1OXcQJL
SNEAK PEEK: Maureen Dowd will love Marco’s new ISIS-defense plan.
MARCO RUBIO to John Dickerson on “Face the Nation,” re buying a handgun in Miami on Christmas Eve: “Well, first of all, I’m not home very often. So that was one of the few days that I was there. Second, I have a right to protect my family. And that’s why -- I was previously a firearm holder, as well. This was an additional one. And again, I think many Americans around the country feel the same way. I'm a strong supporter of the Second Amendment.
“I have the right to protect my family if someone were to come after us. In fact, if ISIS were to visit us or our communities at any moment, the last line of defense between ISIS and my family is the ability that I have to protect my family from them or from a criminal or anyone else who seeks to do us harm. Millions of Americans feel that way.”
MARCO tells Dickerson re the Iranian prisoner release: “It proves once again now that nations and enemies of America around the world know there’s a price for Americans. If you take an American hostage, Barack Obama will cut a deal with you, whether it’s Bergdahl, what he did with the Castro brothers and now what he’s done with Iran.” 1-min. video http://cbsn.ws/1nrwOCa
CAMPAIGN EMAIL of the day – James Carville, “Our girl Hillary needs you right now”: “Friend -- The other day I was on TV talking about this cycle, and the host asked me what I thought the odds were that Bernie would win Iowa and New Hampshire. I told him I thought Bernie had a pretty good chance, and the host told me to put some numbers on it! So I told him: 43.258 percent. He asked me if I was kidding around, but I am not! Bernie’s got a real shot at these first two contests ... If you want Hillary to win this nomination, ... chip in $1 right now ... and let’s get this thing going. Give ’em hell, Carville.”
BEARISH HILLARY VIEW from our insiders’ poll, The Politico Caucus – “Insiders: Clinton dogged by trust deficit and her last name: POLITICO Caucus sees Sanders taking at least one of the first four states,” by Chief Polling Analyst Steve Shepard, a birthday boy today: “Asked how many of the four contests in February the senator would win (Iowa, N.H., S.C., Nev.), 85 percent of Democrats said he would prevail in at least one state ... Only 15 percent predicted Sanders would get shut out for the month.” http://politi.co/1ZEzSvW
SECOND-GUESSING, by and about Hillary -- N.Y. Times p. 1, above fold, “Clinton Allies Have Regrets Over Strategy,” by Patrick Healy: “Advisers to Hillary Clinton, including former President Bill Clinton,believe that her campaign made serious miscalculations by forgoing early attacks on Senator Bernie Sanders ... and failing to undercut his archliberal message before it grew into a political movement that has now put him within striking distance of beating her in Iowa and New Hampshire. ... Mrs. Clinton and the former president are also unnerved by the possibility that Mr. Sanders will foment a large wave of first-time voters and liberals that will derail her in Iowa, not unlike Barack Obama’s success in 2008 ...
“They have asked her advisers about the strength of the campaign’s data modeling and turnout assumptions in Iowa, given that her 2008 campaign’s predictions were so inaccurate. ... the Clintons are particularly concerned that her ‘rational message,’ in the words of an aide, is not a fit with a restless Democratic primary electorate. ... By contrast, Mrs. Clinton has laid out an ambitious policy agenda, but more recently has been stressing her electability and questioning the costs of Mr. Sanders’s ideas. ...
“Several Clinton advisers are also regretting that they did not push for more debates, where Mrs. Clinton excels, to more skillfully marginalize Mr. Sanders over his Senate votes in support of the gun industry and the enormous costs and likely tax increases tied to his big-government agenda. Instead, Mrs. Clinton ... played it safe, opting for as few debates as possible, which were scheduled at times when viewership was likely to be low — like this Sunday at 9 p.m. on a long holiday weekend. ...
“[S]ome Democratic Party officials who remain uncommitted said that after nine months of running, Mrs. Clinton still had not found her voice when it came to inspiring people and making herself broadly likable.” http://nyti.ms/1Pzfly4
FIRST LOOK -- American Crossroads’ new digital ad, “Hillary’s Bull Market,” a $50,000 campaign in Iowa that tells viewers she works for Wall Street. The narrator: “Ever wonder how Hillary Clinton can afford so many attack ads? Chances are, they were paid for with Wall Street cash. Hillary Clinton’s gotten 54 times more money from Wall Street interests than from all of Iowa. ... Does Iowa really want Wall Street … in the White House?” http://bit.ly/1Pjp0sc
** A message from the National Retail Federation: Retail impacts everyone, everywhere, every single day. And no one has more of an impact on the retail industry than the employees themselves. Hear their stories. 30-second video: http://bit.ly/NRFmystory **
3 N.H. PAPERS endorse John Kasich in hard copy of Sunday paper: Nashua Telegraph, Foster’s Daily Democrat and Portsmouth Herald.
LIVING HISTORY – L.A. Times banner, “Era of sanctions on Iran ends: With the nuclear deal certified, Tehran is able to rejoin the global economy.”
--Updated statement from Frederick J. Ryan Jr., publisher of The Washington Post: “Friends and colleagues at The Washington Post are elated by the wonderful news that Jason Rezaian has been released from Evin Prison and has safely left the country with his wife, Yeganeh Salehi. ... Now a free man, Jason will be reunited with his family, including his brother Ali, his most effective and tireless advocate. We look forward to the joyous occasion of welcoming him back to the Washington Post newsroom.”
--“Iran: Now the hard part begins -- Managing the nuclear deal’s aftermath could be nearly as hard as striking it was, U.S. officials say,” by Politico’s Michael Crowley: “Resentful Iranian hardliners may provoke new confrontations with the U.S. Republicans will push for new sanctions and issue threats of war. Israel and Saudi Arabia will pounce on any hint of Iranian misbehavior. And even as Hillary Clinton took partial credit for the deal on Saturday, she described Iran as ‘a regime that continues to threaten the peace and security of the Middle East’ and called for new sanctions to punish it for recent missile tests.” http://politi.co/1n4j6EL
--WashPost banner, “Iran frees 5 as sanctions are lifted: NEW ERA OF BILATERAL TIES -- Post reporter released after 544 days in prison,” by Carol Morello in Vienna, and Karen DeYoung, Bill Branigin and Joby Warrick in D.C.: “The coordinated moves cemented a major diplomatic victory for the Obama administration ... [which] had come under heavy criticism for concluding the nuclear accord without winning the release of American detainees ... White House officials confirmed that the swap was clinched during months of secret talks that gained momentum in the days before the nuclear pact was formally implemented.” http://wapo.st/1Pzhdad
--N.Y. Times 2-col. lead, “IRAN MEETS TERMS OF NUCLEAR DEAL, ENDING SANCTIONS: Inspectors Confirm Compliance Hours After Tehran Frees Americans in Swap,” by David Sanger in Vienna: “The United States and European nations lifted oil and financial sanctions on Iran and released roughly $100 billion of its assets after international inspectors concluded that the country had followed through on promises to dismantle large sections of its nuclear program. ... ‘Iran has undertaken significant steps that many people — and I do mean many — doubted would ever come to pass,’ Secretary of State John Kerry said.” http://nyti.ms/1ZEyOrR
BACKSTORY -- ROBIN WRIGHT on NewYorker.com, “Hostage Swap: Obama’s Secret Second Channel to Iran”: “Fourteen months ago, President Obama authorized a top-secret, second diplomatic channel with Tehran to negotiate freedom for Americans who had disappeared or been imprisoned in Iran. ... [I]t was so tightly held that most of the American team engaged in tortuous negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program were not told about it. What heightened the risk was the fact that the new Iranian team was headed by a senior intelligence official ... Brett McGurk, a senior State Department official, headed the small American team, which also included officials from the Department of Justice, the F.B.I., and the intelligence community. The meetings [were] facilitated by the Swiss government.” http://bit.ly/1SV1sjd
--“Here’s Why We Held The Story On The U.S.-Iranian Prisoner Exchange,” by HuffPost’s Ryan Grim: “In early fall, HuffPost foreign affairs reporter Jessica Schulberg landed a hell of a scoop: A State Department official [Chase Foster] was willing to talk on the record about the most sensitive of diplomatic operations -- secret negotiations between the U.S. and Iranian governments over exchanging prisoners. ... [W]hen we approached [senior] administration officials higher up the chain, they told us ... that reporters for The Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal were [also] withholding details of the talks ... They did not put hard pressure on us to hold our story, but instead calmly laid out their analysis of the possible consequences of publishing, and offered confidence that the talks were moving forward and headed toward a resolution.” http://huff.to/1RXb8J6
SPOTTED: The Obamas last night at Jose Andres’ restaurant Oyamel Cocina Mexicana in Penn Quarter for the First Lady’s birthday. The entire restaurant sang happy birthday just before they exited the restaurant. The menu http://bit.ly/1WjTn7G
LATE-NIGHT BEST – SNL’s GOP debate cold-open – “Maria Bartiromo” asks “Donald Trump”: “Cruz has pulled ahead of you in Iowa. Is it true you’ve started attacking him because you see him as a threat?” “Trump”: “Frankly, Maria, I’m glad everyone is talking about my good friend, Rafael Eduardo Cruz. People are coming up to me all the time and saying Ted Cruz was born in Canada. He can’t be president. His campaign is illegal. Their words, not mine.”
“CRUZ”: “Donald, this debate about natural-born citizenship is just political nonsense. Clearly I’m not Canadian. Canadians are well-liked, I am not. Canadians are rugged and outdoorsy while I myself am mostly made of pudding. Canadians are genuine and warm whereas when I smile, it looks like I’m peeing.” ... “Neil Cavuto”: “Our next question is for Marco Rubio.” “Marco”: “Umm, can I ask my question myself? Why am I not winning? Is it the boots? I can lose the boots! Come on, I’m young, I’m smart, the only one up here with a chin. ... Why is no one paying attention to me?” 6-min. video http://bit.ly/207SfpH
--N.Y. DAILY NEWS cover: Cruz in cowboy hat and Pinocchio nose, “TEXAS TED’S B.S.: Debunking Cruz’s 5 biggest lies – PLUS: Real New Yorkers And Their Values.” http://nydn.us/vp5qdB
DAILY TRUMP -- “The One Weird Trait That Predicts Whether You’re a Trump Supporter: And it’s not gender, age, income, race or religion,” by Matthew MacWilliams, a Ph.D. candidate in political science at UMass Amherst, on Politico: “Trump’s electoral strength—and his staying power—have been buoyed, above all, by Americans with authoritarian inclinations. And because of the prevalence of authoritarians in the American electorate, among Democrats as well as Republicans, it’s very possible that Trump’s fan base will continue to grow.” http://politi.co/1Qf2wxI
HOT VIDEO -- @alanhe of CBS Politics: “.@tedcruz gets stuck in an elevator. Upon being freed Cruz jokes, ‘Who put Donald Trump in charge of the elevator!’” 21-sec. video http://bit.ly/1P75rcX
--TRUMP’s “How to Caucus Iowa” -- with Trump state co-chairwoman Tana Goertz acting as instructor -- 90-sec. video http://bit.ly/1KjWJAv
KOCH ANECDOTE in Tom Hamburger’s WashPost review (cover of Outlook, “For the Kochs, conservatism that began in the cradle”) of Jane Mayer’s “Dark Money”: “[Mayer] ends the book with a quote attributed to Charles [Koch] as a boy. ‘When called upon to split a treat with others he would say with a wise-guy grin, “I just want my fair share — which is all of it.”’ http://wapo.st/1P6MfvC $17.97 on Amazon http://amzn.to/236VIYe
KATIE COURIC’s new 6-part Yahoo series, “Cities Rising: Rebuilding America”: “Once some of the most important and thriving cities in the United States, places like Pittsburgh, Detroit and New Orleans fell on hard times. Now, the people who inhabit these cities are working to revive them and bring them, reenergized and transformed, into the 21st century.” First episode, “Buffalo’s big comeback” – 11-min. video http://yhoo.it/1ZDoT5X
YOU’RE INVITED -- Join us on Monday, Jan. 25 for Playbook Cocktails featuring a one-on-one conversation with former National Security Adviser Tom Donilon followed by a keynote interview with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates about policy, politics and his new book “A Passion for Leadership.” Doors open at 5:30 p.m. at the W Hotel. RSVP http://bit.ly/1OvLFlC
TV TONIGHT – “Premiering tonight on Showtime at 8 p.m. ET/PT during the network’s free preview weekend — the first real-time documentary series about a presidential campaign, ‘The Circus: Inside the Greatest Political Show on Earth,’ from Mark Halperin, John Heilemann and Mark McKinnon ... Episode 1, ‘The Outsiders,’ follows Ted Cruz, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump, with behind the scenes footage and unique perspectives ... McKinnon and cameras also boarded the ‘Courageous Cruzer’ bus, where Cruz sat with aides and dismissed Trump as jumping the shark with attacks on his citizenship. McKinnon replies, ‘Well, you remember what we say in Texas — a hit dog barks.’ Cruz bursts into laughter and replies, ‘That’s a good line. Actually, that’s not one I know but I may have to steal that.’ Preview clips http://bit.ly/1lkid9P ...http://bit.ly/1OX7G0r
OUT AND ABOUT: CBS News D.C. Bureau Chief Chris Isham and Jennifer Maguire Isham hosted a book party Friday night at their Cathedral Heights home for actor David McCallum and his wife Catherine, who is Isham’s first cousin. McCallum (who plays Dr. Donald “Ducky” Mallard in “NCIS”) played Russian spy Illya Kuryakin in the 1960s TV show “The Man from U.N.C.L.E.” and just published the crime novel “Once a Crooked Man”.$17.76 on Amazon http://amzn.to/1P65u8T
--SPOTTED: Sen. Ed Markey, Rep. Mike Rogers, Mike Morrell, Bob and Pat Schieffer, Ret. Gen. George Casey and Sheila Casey, CBS News’ Margaret Brennan, Bill Plante, Nancy Cordes, Jan Crawford, Julianna Goldman and Deputy Bureau Chief Ward Sloane, Pam Stevens, Don Baer, Bob Mueller, Marcus Brauchli, Jim Lehrer, Scott Simon, Margaret Carlson, Kevin Chaffee, Jackie Berkowitz, Nicole Sganga.
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Cassie Menn, GM of the Houston office for FleishmanHillard and a fellow DC ex-pat (h/t Joe Brettell)
BIRTHDAYS: The First Lady is 52 ... former FCC chairman Newton Minow is 90 ... Maury Povich is 77 ... Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ... Hunter Ward, bro of Jon, Joe, Ryan, etc. ... Steve Shepard, editor of The Politico Caucus and Politico’s chief polling analyst, and also a weather junkie and fan of the Mets, Giants, Rangers and GW basketball ... Politico health care editor Joanne Kenen ... John Wagner, the pride of St. Louis covering Bernie Sanders for the WaPo, is 47 (h/t Annie Linskey) ... Steve Rabinowitz (h/t birthday girl Joanne Kenen) ... Alyssa Franke in digital at EMILY’s List (h/t Evan Brown) ... Liz Bradley, comms. strategy director at AARP ... Chris Jones, CEO at PoliTemps/Capitolworks (h/ts Jon Haber) ... Rebecca Berg, national political reporter at RealClearPolitics and the pride of San Diego, celebrating by skiing up in Mont-Tremblant, Quebec (h/t boyfriend Brendan Buck) ... Al Shofe, “the Sherpa” … Nikki Schwab, U.S. political reporter at The Daily Mail and a U.S. News alum ...
... NBC News’ Alex Moe, a Terps and Skins fan, celebrating in S.C. as she did four years ago (h/ts Olivia Petersen) … Scott Goodstein, CEO of Revolution Messaging, Bernie Sanders’ expectation shattering digital firm (online fundraising, digital ads, website development, artists for Sanders, video, branding etc.) and an Obama alum (h/t Arun Chaudhary) ... David Avella, chairman of GOPAC, which educates and elects the next generation of Republican leaders ... RADM Stephen Gilmore, defense attaché at the Australian embassy (h/t daughter Sarah) ... Kousha Navidar, speechwriter to SBA Administrator Contreras-Sweet and a former Googler and Harvard grad (h/t Sophia Kim) ... Charlotte Rediker is 12 (h/ts parents Doug and Heidi, two Obama administration veterans: Doug was Obama’s Senate confirmed rep at the IMF and is now at International Capital Strategies and Heidi was Hillary Clinton’s chief economist at State and now a senior fellow at CFR) ... Julie Germany, COO of Generation Opportunity ... John Seabrook, staff writer at The New Yorker ... Mike Spahn, chief of staff to Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) ... Haris Alic, a legislative associate at Stateside Associates ... Jeremy Pelofsky, VP of media strategy at Ketchum and the pride of Kansas City and a Reuters alum ... Karlygash Faillace, a senior policy advisor and head of the Ukraine-Russia team at State ...
... Doug Wilder is 85 (hat tip: Don Baker) ... Alyssa Roberts, press secretary for Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) and an OFA alum ... Barbara Riley, comms. director for Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R-Fla.) and a Sununu alum ... Vadim Lavrusi, product manager for Facebook Mentions and Live on Facebook, a former professor at Columbia Journalism School and a Mashable and NYT alum, is 3-0 ... Taylor Barden, director of scheduling at The Wilson Center and a Landrieu and Manchin alum ... John Hoyt … Warren Cathedral ... Robbie Hughes ... Amit Jani ... John M Gillespie ... Hope Tackaberry ...actress Betty White is 94 ... James Earl Jones is 85 ... Muhammad Ali is 74 ... Jane Elliot (“General Hospital”) is 69 ... actor-comedian Steve Harvey is 59 ... Jim Carrey is 54 ... Kid Rock is 45 ... Zooey Deschanel is 36 ... Maksim Chmerkovskiy (“Dancing with the Stars”) is 36 ... Kathrine Herzer, who play Alison McCord, Tea Leoni’s teen daughter – and Washington’s best-known middle child -- on “Madam Secretary,” is 19 (h/ts AP)
** A message from the National Retail Federation: Retailers care about jobs because the industry is the nation’s largest private sector employer and the leading creator of jobs. One in four American jobs – 42 million positions – are supported by retail. A third of Americans found their first jobs in retailand nearly two-thirds have worked in retail at some point in their lives, according to NRF research. As of December, retail employment in 2015 had increased by nearly 175,000 jobs over 2014.
Retail jobs are good jobs. Studies show that retail jobs pay wages competitive with similar positions in other industries, that most retail workers are happy in their jobs and that hiring managers throughout the economyvalue retail experience highly when evaluating job applicants. Unlike other industries that might be concentrated in a few specific locations, retail employees live and work in every city and town from Maine to Hawaii, and retailers are vital members of each community they serve. Learn more at nrf.com/SOTU. **
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