By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)
Good Saturday morning – 30 days to Iowa! The Economist notes in its morning Espresso: “In 2016 the world celebrates the 400th anniversary of William Shakespeare’s death [1616]. ... Stratford-upon-Avon ... is restoring the house in which he wrote 26 [plays] ... Chicago promises ... a year-long festival of 850 events spanning dance, literature, music and even cuisine; and the Folger Shakespeare Library in Washington ... will take its First Folio (dated 1623) on tour to all 50 ... states,” starting Wednesday in Notre Dame, Ind. “First Folio! The Book that Gave Us Shakespeare” tour, by date and state http://bit.ly/1R6jwYo
PLAYBOOK IN-BOX – A Bush 43 alumnus makes the case for Christie: “One of the most ignored elements so far is that it's not just what places the candidates finish in the first three states that matters, but also the margin separating them. If Christie finishes second in N.H. [after Trump], but is 20 points ahead of Rubio and Jeb, it will matter a lot more in quickly consolidating establishment support than if he’s only 2 points ahead ... [M]omentum matters in life: ... possible that at the last minute, moderate Republicans all break towards one candidate when the voting begins -- by their very nature, the voters in that lane are pragmatic.
“In ’04, Kerry beat Dean in Iowa by 20 points [38% to 18%] (and Edwards also came in ahead of Dean) [32%]. ... Christie has put in so much effort in N.H. at this point that a vote for Christie is also a vote for N.H. remaining relevant. Still unclear what happens when Christie gets attacked harder over Bridgegate and N.J. record. But it’s a lot easier to see him (or Marco) coming in way ahead of the other establishment folks in the first two states because of the mindset of voters in that lane.”
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AP for SUN. PAPERS, “Abrasive Cruz tries to use personality to his advantage,” by Scott Bauer in Mechanicsville, Va.: “Cruz’s reputation as an arrogant, grating, in-your-face ideologue has dogged him throughout the ... race. ... Cruz is increasingly embracing his irascible persona, trying to turn what could be a liability into an asset. ‘If you want someone to grab a beer with, I may not be that guy,’ Cruz said [during the CNBC debate]. ‘But if you want someone to drive you home, ... I will get you home.’” http://yhoo.it/1R6qFYy
THE CONVERSATION – WSJ p. A9, top of Opinion page, “Can Jeb Bush Make a Comeback? The Weekend Interview with Jeb Bush,” by Joseph Rago of the Journal editorial board: “Contra Mr. Trump, Mr. Bush is medium energy, if graded on the overly amped-up curve of his competitors. That isn’t meant as a put-down. Part of Mr. Bush’s appeal—an acquired taste, apparently—is his analytic thoughtfulness and sometimes ironic detachment. A more deliberative debate might underscore his strengths. His challenge will be to translate the exclamation mark on his ‘Jeb!’ logo, which he told Stephen Colbert ‘connotes excitement,’ into the genuine article.” http://on.wsj.com/1OqOSq3
--N.Y. Times p. A9, “Bush Has a 6-Point Plan to Save His Candidacy,” by Ashley Parker in Hialeah, Fla. (online: “How Jeb Bush Hopes to Save His Candidacy”): “Stay on the attack ... Avoid embarrassment in Iowa ... Do well in New Hampshire ... Woo Lindsey Graham ... Use the family network ... Continue the ad blitz.” http://nyti.ms/1PCTSJd
BOOM! DONE! How hard could any of those be?
--The (Columbia, S.C.) State, bottom of 1A, “Bush hopes to stage a comeback in SC,” by Jamie Self: “The campaign plans to increase its paid workers in South Carolina to 17 from seven by mid-January, [Brett Doster, a S.C. adviser for Bush] said. Bush’s son, George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner, also will be coming to South Carolina to help.” http://bit.ly/1JPSTyS
TOP TWEET – @DanPfeiffer: “Watch this @google ad and then turn on a TV in a primary state to see how far behind political ad making has fallen.” 2-min. YouTube, “Google - Year In Search 2015” http://bit.ly/1RWwt6L
--“The top political ads of 2015,” by Nick Gass: “Prostitutes over patriots ... Christmas stories with Cruz and family ... ‘These Hands’ ... ‘Food fight’ ... Low-energy ... ‘Samantha’ ... The voice of Warren ... ‘Feel the burn, governor!’” With links to all the ads http://politi.co/1MKBdVp
TWEET FAIL -- @CarlyFiorina: “Love my alma mater [Stanford], but rooting for a Hawkeyes win today. #RoseBowl.” (Des Moines Register lead story: “Hawkeyes wilt in Rose Bowl: Stanford 45, Iowa 16.”)
DATA DU JOUR -- “Trump most frequent 2015 Sunday show guest,” by Hadas Gold: Trump: 36 ... Carson, Sanders: 28 ... Kasich: 27 ... Huckabee: 19 ... Carly: 18 ... Graham: 16 ... Christie: 14 ... Marco, Rand: 13 ... Perry: 11 ... O’Malley: 10 ... Jeb, Jindal: 9 ... Santorum, Walker: 8 ... Cruz: 6 ... Hillary, Webb: 5. http://politi.co/1P53mIi
RUT-ROH: Qaeda Affiliate “Shabab Uses Video of Trump for Recruiting” http://nyti.ms/1kA9u2Z
** A message from NextGen Climate: How do we protect and grow our economy? Ensure our national security? Create healthier lives for our families and communities? By transitioning to 50 percent clean energy by 2030. Confronting climate change is essential to the issues most important to our nation. Learn how: https://nextgenclimate.org/playbook **
STATE OF THE ART – “How Medium is breaking Washington’s op-ed habit: The online publishing platform has assiduously courted the political class, by Politico tech reporter Nancy Scola: “In July, the company brought on Mitt Romney campaign alumnus Jack Gerard Jr. to lead its outreach to conservatives. ... (He’s the son and namesake of the CEO of American Petroleum Institute.) The company is now looking for his counterpart on the left. Both will look for ways they can tweak the platform to better serve the Washington audience, like dicing up reader stats by geography so that lawmakers can see how many [readers] are constituents. ...
“[T]he company is beginning to put more of its energy into brainstorming high-profile projects. In November, ... riffing off National Adoption Month, [Medium] helped House Republicans create a series of first-person stories about foster care.” http://politi.co/1PCWXZF
TALKER – “Dead & Company to Continue Touring in 2016, John Mayer Announces at New Year's Eve Show,” by Billboard’s Shirley Halperin: “The Grammy-winning guitarist and singer, who guest-turns in the Grateful Dead-spawned supergroup featuring original members Bob Weir, Mickey Hart and Bill Kreutzman, ... made the announcement at the end of the three-set show [at The Forum in L.A.], telling the capacity crowd, ‘At the risk of rocking any boats -- known and unknown -- we'll see you next year.’” http://bit.ly/1Vwe3ZK(h/t NYT Now)
--ALYSSA MASTROMONACO responds: “It's a 2016 miracle! I may need to go back to touring. Just in time for my 40th!” BUT DAVID AXELROD says: “What a canard. What was Soldier Field all about?”
$100 MILLION HILL: “Clinton campaign raises $55M in final quarter, $112M total in 2015,” by Annie Karni http://politi.co/1RgevdW ... Alex Isenstadt: “Carson’s campaign raised around $23 million in the last three months of 2015 ... one-upping Ted Cruz’s fourth-quarter haul of nearly $20 million.” http://politi.co/1VwqFjt
HOT DOC -- WashPost, top of A2, “Declassified: 1950s U.S. nuclear plans – Study shows where and how bombs would have been dropped,” by Thomas Gibbons-Neff: “In the event of a nuclear war, the Pentagon in 1956 penned a report that listed 1,200 cities and 1,100 airfields spread across eastern Europe, the Soviet Union and China that were prioritized for various levels of destruction ... 800-page Strategic Air Command Atomic Weapons Requirements Study for 1959.” http://wapo.st/1RWmyOP ... National Security Archive, “U.S. Cold War Nuclear Target Lists Declassified for First Time” http://bit.ly/1OCBLE6
FIGHTS AHEAD – WSJ 1-col. lead, “Lawmakers [including Democratic supporters of Obama’s nuclear deal] Blast Delay On Iran Sanctions: Critics say White House U-turn on missile-test penalties hurts nuclear deal enforcement,” by Jay Solomon: “Top U.S. lawmakers [Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a supporter of the deal and member of Foreign Relations, is quoted at top], including White House allies, said they believed failing to respond to Tehran’s two recent ballistic missile tests would diminish the West’s ability to enforce the nuclear agreement reached between global powers and Tehran in July. ...
“U.S. and European officials, in private, have said they hope the sanctions relief could lend political support to [Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani, whose allies are facing tough competition from conservatives in national elections in late February. Some former U.S. officials said they believed the White House’s reluctance to impose the sanctions was driven by a fear of undermining Mr. Rouhani.” http://on.wsj.com/1R3dHuv
REMEMBERING MIKE OXLEY – Columbus Dispatch’s Jessica Wehrman: “Rep. Mike Oxley, who served 25 years in the House of Representatives representing a northwest Ohio district and rose to chair the influential House Financial Services Committee, died Thursday ... [at] 71. ... [I]n 2002 ... he team[ed] up with Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes of Maryland to usher through [Sarbanes-Oxley] overhauling the nation’s public accounting laws ... to make corporate executives accountable to shareholders and was a direct consequence of a series of corporate and accounting scandals.” http://bit.ly/1Tua9Pw
HEATHER PODESTA’s holiday card: “Stop dipping my pita in Hamas ... Discover Cleveland ... Practice saying Melania ... Feel less of the Bern ... Love my siblings as much as Jeb Bush ... Teach Hoyer how to Whip/Nae Nae ... Convince Zuckerberg that I am a charitable cause ... Wipe private server ... Figure out how a brokered convention works ... Make Lobbying Great Again.” See the card. http://bit.ly/1PBH6so
GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Daniel Lippman:
--“Inside Gitmo: America’s Shame,” by Janet Reitman in Rolling Stone: “Fifteen years of pain and suffering outside the rule of law — why can't we close the prison at Guantanamo Bay?” http://rol.st/1msi3OG(h/t Longform.org)
– “The Hustlers at Scores,” by Jessica Pressler in New York Magazine: “Here’s a modern Robin Hood story for you: a few strippers who stole from (mostly) rich, (usually) disgusting, (in their minds) pathetic men and gave to, well, themselves.” http://thecut.io/1PrZJPo
--“Date Lab year in review: More fizzle than bedazzle, but a lot of fun was had,” by WashPost’s Christina Breda Antoniades: “It happens all too often. Two intrepid Date Labbers meet for the first time and discover, to their great relief, that they actually enjoy each other’s company. ... Three hours later they part with a hearty hug ... And then? Nothing.” http://wapo.st/1RbOL2i
--“Slaves or wage slaves,” by Jerry Toner in Aeon Magazine: “Incentives, rewards, bonuses and bonding experiences – Roman slaveowners were the first management theorists.” http://bit.ly/1YRLbAs
--“How Stories Deceive,” by Maria Konnikova on NewYorker.com: “From campfires and pictograms ... to tribal songs and epic ballads passed down from generation to generation, [stories are] one of the most fundamental ways humans have of making sense of the world. ... Stories are so natural that we don’t notice how much they permeate our lives. ... That’s precisely why they can be such a powerful tool of deception. When we’re immersed in a story, we let down our guard.” http://bit.ly/1NYKwTs
--“Confessions of an ISIS Spy,” by Michael Weiss in The Daily Beast: “For all the attention paid to ISIS, relatively little is known about its inner workings. But a man claiming to be a member of the so-called Islamic State’s security services has stepped forward to provide that inside view.” http://thebea.st/22BXhgv
--“The Luck of the English: A new history shatters myths about an extraordinary nation,” by David Frum in The Atlantic, reviewing “The English and Their History” by Robert Tombs: “Which is the largest nation in Europe to lack a state of its own? The Catalans? The Walloons? Wrong and wrong. It is the English: population 50 million-plus, all of them under the government of a multinational entity, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.” http://theatln.tc/1mUlWwi
--“Maritime ‘Repo Men’: A Last Resort for Stolen Ships,” by NYT’s Ian Urbina: “Thousands of boats are stolen each year, and some are recovered using alcohol, prostitutes, witch doctors and other forms of guile.” http://nyti.ms/1PALPuy
--“The Terrible Beauty of Brain Surgery,” by Karl Ove Knausgaard in tomorrow’s N.Y. Times Magazine: “A witness in an operating room where the patients are conscious.” http://nyti.ms/1NYKFWP
--“Just Desserts,” by Katy Vine in the Jan. issue of Texas Monthly: “Sandy Jenkins was a shy, daydreaming accountant at the Collin Street Bakery, the world’s most famous fruitcake company. He was tired of feeling invisible, so he started stealing—and got a little carried away. ... Their personal shopper at Neiman Marcus saw the Jenkinses so often she had nicknames for them, Fruitcake for Sandy and Cupcake for Kay.” http://bit.ly/1R1uVIK (h/t TheBrowser.com)
--“Falling Idols: Public monuments, Islamic State and contesting the story of the past,” by Marina Warner in Frieze: “Harbours, piazzas, parks and city streets unfold past exploits ... Yet most passers-by rarely look up, let alone inquire into a statue’s meaning or remember its history. The summons of the stone phantom often remains unheard, its memories kept by a very few flâneurs, historians, antiquarians and tourist guides.” http://bit.ly/22BXAbf
--“NYC Jewish Delicatessens: The Ultimate Guide,” by Eater Staff: “Here’s everything you need to know about New York’s Jewish delicatessens, and the people that make them tick.” http://bit.ly/1RUmChP
SPORTS BLINK: Already a rough year for the Worldwide Leader -- “Moving [college football] semifinals to New Year's Eve a total flop,” by AP sports columnist Paul Newberry in Miami: “[T]he semifinal games should move back to New Year's Day. The other major bowls should serve as worthy prelims, not meaningless consolations. Of course, the powers-that-be are refusing to acknowledge the obvious. This is, after all, the sport that nonsensically resisted a playoff until last season. ... The Orange Bowl [on ESPN] got a 9.1 rating, a plunge of 38.5 percent from last year's Rose Bowl (14.8) held in the same afternoon time slot but on Jan. 1.
“The number of viewers fell even more — dropping from 28,164,000 for the Rose to just 15,640,000 for the Orange, a staggering decline for such a high-profile event. The Cotton Bowl [also on ESPN] ... 9.6 rating was down a whopping 36.8 percent from last year’s 15.2 for the Sugar Bowl in the same time slot, while the total viewership crashed 34.4 percent, going from 28,271,000 to 18,552,000. Of course, neither game was competitive, and that didn’t help. But there’s no way to sugarcoat this debacle.” http://apne.ws/1YVFiSR
WELCOME TO THE WORLD – Brad Brooks, Reuters’ chief correspondent in Brazil and an AP alum, on Facebook: “Ecstatic to announce the New Year’s Day arrival of our daughter, Isabela Alegre Olmos Brooks! Exhausted mom [physician Fabiana Fernandez] and girl doing great after Isabela was born at 1:07 p.m., weighing 3.4 kilos (7.5 pounds) and stretching 49 cm (19.3 inches) long.” Pic http://bit.ly/1OxXs20
--Kayla Dunlap, senior polling analyst at On Message and an NRCC alum, and hubby Brian, personal training director at Balance Gym, welcomed a baby girl, Lennon Jane Dunlap, on Dec. 8th. Pic http://bit.ly/1SqYQJO
BIRTHDAYS: Mike Zapler, boss of Politico’s Congress team (h/t Seung Min Kim) ... DCI Group’s Erin Brady Hughes, Bush 43 alum now handling education policy at DCI Group (h/t her 2-year-old daughter Olivia) ... Judy Miller ... Denny Hastert is 74 ... Jill Hoppin (h/ts Rob, Keil) ... Mike Sozan, V.P. of gov’t affairs at CAP and a Mark Udall alum ... Greg Mueller, president of CRC Public Relations ... Annie Lewis, who manages GOP/conservative ad sales in Facebook’s D.C. office ... Will Jawando, an Obama WH and Senate alum, avid b-ball player and congressional candidate in MD’s 8th District (Chris Van Hollen’s seat) ... Ava Jawando is 2 (h/ts wife and mother Michele Jawando) ... Cyrus Farivar, senior business editor at Ars Technica ... Michael Webb is 5-0 ... Craig Varoga ...
... Linda Gaumer ... Christi Layman ... Stephanie Woodrow … Rachel Perrone, comms. director at RH Reality Check and an ACLU and NARAL alum … Jessica “J.C.” Cameron, a huge UCLA fan ... Elliott Smith, daughter of Kevin and Kara ... Kelly Schulz, secretary of the Maryland Dept. of Labor, Licensing and Regulation ... Stephanie Woodrow, counseling intern at Adventist HealthCare and a Main Justice and Advisory Board alum … TV host Jack Hanna is 69 ... Cuba Gooding Jr. is 48 ... Christy Turlington is 47 ... Doug Robb (Hoobastank) is 41 ... Karina Smirnoff (“Dancing with the Stars”) is 38 ... Trombone Shorty is 30 (h/ts AP)
THE SHOWS, from @MattMackowiak, filing from Paris:
--NBC’s “Meet the Press”: Kasich; Rand; Roundtable: Jennifer Rubin, Eugene Robinson, Sara Fagen and Chris Matthews
--ABC’s “This Week”: Carson; Bernie Sanders; roundtable: Matt Bai, Alex Castellanos, Van Jones and Alice Stewart
--CBS’s “Face the Nation”: Trump; Michael Morrell and Tom Donilon; roundtable: Ruth Marcus, Reihan Salam, Molly Ball and Jonathan Martin
--“Fox News Sunday”: Jeb Bush; Chris Christie; roundtable: Laura Ingraham, Susan Page, Michael Needham and Kirsten Powers
--CNN’s “State of the Union” (9am ET / 12pm ET): Bernie Sanders; Carly Fiorina (guest anchor: CNN’s Dana Bash)
--CNN’s “Inside Politics” with John King (SUN 8:30am ET): Roundtable: Ed O’Keefe, Julie Pace, Manu Raju and Ashley Parker
--CNN’s “Fareed Zakaria GPS”: (SUN 10am ET / 1pm ET): Foreign policy roundtable: Richard Haass, Ian Bremmer, Anne-Marie Slaughter and Bret Stephens; author and the University of Sussex’s Mariana Mazzucato; roundtable: former U.S. Ambassador to Austria and Harvard University’s Sewanee Hunt, Women Without Walls Initiative founder and pastor Esther Ibanga and The Voice of Libyan Women founder Alla Murabit
--CNN’s “Reliable Sources”: (SUN 11am ET): New York Magazine’s Jody Quon and New York Magazine’s Noreen Malone; Barry Diller; filmmaker Alex Gibney
--Fox News’ “MediaBuzz” (11am ET / 10am CT): A.B. Stoddard; Jim Geraghty; Mara Liasson; Mercedes Schlapp; Michelle Cottle; tech expert Shana Glenzer
--Univision’s “Al Punto” (SUN 10am ET / 1pm PT) Rebroadcast of the best interviews from 2015, with Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz and Ben Carson; roundtable: Lincoln Díaz-Balart, Fabian Núñez and Clarissa Martínez-De-Castro
--C-SPAN: “The Communicators” (SAT 6:30pm ET): Consumer Technology Association president Gary Shapiro, questioned by Politico’s Tony Romm ... “Newsmakers” (SUN 10am ET): National Counterterrorism Center director Nicholas Rasmussen, questioned by NYT’s Eric Schmitt and WSJ’s Damian Paletta ...“Q&A” (SUN 8pm & 11pm ET): Author and editorial cartoonist Michael Ramirez (“Give Me Liberty or Give Me Obamacare”)
--MSNBC’s “UP”: (SUN 9-10am ET): Bipartisan Policy Center’s Robert Traynham; MSNBC’s Jane Timm; former Schumer aide Michael Tobman; actor George Takai; MSNBC contributor and The Atlantic’s Steve Clemons
--MSNBC’s “Melissa Harris-Perry”: (SUN 10am-12pm ET): Author and MSNBC’s Irin Carmon (“Notorious RBG”; attorney Gloria Allred; attorney and Shift MSNBC host Raul Reyes; author and former Twitter manager of journalism and news Mark S. Luckie (“DO U”); New York Civil Liberties Union executive director Donna Lieberman; outgoing Mayor of Houston Annise Parker; ACLU’s Elizabeth Gill; former Bush 41 White House press secretary Gian-Carlo Peressutti; Fordham University’s Aimee Meredith Cox
--MSNBC’s “Weekends with Alex Witt”: (SUN 12pm-2pm ET): Former assistant U.S. attorney Laura Coates; Matt Lewis; Wesley Lowery; Common Good founder Philip K. Howard; Young Hollywood’s Nikki Novak
--NPR’s “Weekend Edition Sunday” (SUN 8am-10am), hosted by NPR’s Rachel Martin: “For the Record” segment on football concussions and traumatic brain injuries – with Tregg Duerson (son of former NFL player Dave Duerson), Pop Warner scholars program’s Jon Butler and Sports Legacy Institute’s Christopher Nowinski; former South Carolina political director for the Obama campaign Anton Gunn; NPR international contributor Nick Schifrin (Lagos); Moon Arch project lead Lowry Burgess; former Baltimore Police officer / assistant professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice Peter Moskos; food commentator Bonny Wolf
--PBS’s “To the Contrary” with Bonnie Erbé: documentary on gender equality in Islam
--WUSA 9 “Capital Download” with Derek McGinty and Susan Page: (SUN 8:30am ET): top newsmakers of 2015; roundtable: USA Today’s Paul Singer and Morning Consult’s Reid Wilson
--SiriusXM’s “No Labels Radio” (SUN 6am ET & 9pm ET): Panel hosted by Jon Huntsman looking back at the accomplishments in Congress and in the Obama administration in 2015 with Mack McLarty, Tom Davis and WaPo’s Karen DeYoung.
** A message from NextGen Climate: Citigroup estimates climate change will cost the global economy $44 trillion. The Pentagon calls climate change a “threat multiplier” that puts our national security at risk, contributes to the spread of terrorism, and fuels humanitarian crises. Doctors warn climate change will harm air quality, spread disease, and put our families’ lives at risk. Find out why responsible political leadership requires a real climate plan that powers America with at least 50 percent clean energy by 2030.https://nextgenclimate.org/playbook **
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