By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)
Good Monday morning, and welcome to the Iowa sprint. The eastern Oregon standoff between the feds and followers of activist rancher Cliven Bundy, occupying a national wildlife refuge, is a new headache for Republican candidates. They will have to navigate a blatant crime that may nevertheless have sympathizers in the party’s base. American Bridge yesterday was already taunting the candidates for “GOP Silence On Bundy’s Oregon Takeover with Militias.”
TRUTH BOMB: For all you Republicans and pundits who are still talking about a Cruz-Rubio final, here’s a wake-up data point: It’s been 168 days since Trump took a big lead in national polling, and he has widened his margin by 10 points since then. It’s 28 days to Iowa, 36 days to New Hampshire, 47 days to South Carolina, 50days to Nevada and 57 days to the SEC primary. If you think voters will suddenly get serious – and that Trump is a “lampshade candidate” who’ll eventually wear out his welcome -- you’re running out of time to be right. But at least it’s 309 days to Election Day.
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TRUMP RELEASES FIRST AD, “Great Again,” which begins tomorrow in Iowa and N.H. Per his campaign: “Trump will be spending at least $2 million dollars per week, with $1.1 million allocated to TV in Iowa and close to $1 million spent on TV in New Hampshire.” 30-sec. video http://bit.ly/1O5R16M
--WashPost A3, “Trump’s first TV ad draws from his boisterous rallies,” by Bob Costa and Phil Rucker: “Trump’s ad begins with a shot of President Obama and Hillary Clinton. Then comes a U.S. battleship launching a cruise-missile strike. It moves swiftly through an explosive montage: The suspects in the recent California terrorist attack. Shadowy figures racing across the U.S.-Mexico border. Islamic State militants.
“The narrator, a deep-voiced man, speaks ominously: ‘That’s why he’s calling for a temporary shutdown of Muslims entering the United States, until we can figure out what’s going on. He’ll quickly cut the head off ISIS and take their oil. And he’ll stop illegal immigration by building a wall on our southern border that Mexico will pay for.’ The spot closes with the image of Trump thundering at one of his rallies, ‘We will make America great again!’” http://wapo.st/1PaCAOT
--N.Y. Post cover, “FREE RIDE: Media blitz saves Trump $40M in ads” (based on the figures he gave on “Face” yesterday). See the cover. http://bit.ly/1Xy78jU
CLICK OF THE DAY: The backdrop for Hillary’s event in Concord yesterday – Snap by Peter Hamby http://bit.ly/1PFKEd2
FIRST LOOK: Ted Cruz goes up with a “significant buy” statewide buy in Iowa for “First Principles,” in which he seems to levitate above a sofa, in a checked button-down, with sky-blue pullover: “Barack Obama sticks by his principles. It’s time for Republicans to stand by ours – that’s how we win. And that’s how I’ll lead. As president, I won’t compromise the values that make us who we are. The Constitution wasn’t a first draft. Our border isn’t a revolving door. And the rule of law wasn’t meant to be broken. America is off-track. But our founding principles will get us back. I’m Ted Cruz and I approve this message.”
--On-screen, the words “TRUST” and “TED” glide together to form “TRUSTED.” YouTube http://bit.ly/1UpPVqo
HAPPENING THIS A.M. – Rubio national-security speech at American Legion in Hooksett – Excerpt:“[We are] the party of Reagan, the party of strong national defense and moral clarity, yet we have Republican candidates who propose that rulers like Assad and Putin should be partners of the United States, and who have voted with Barack Obama and Harry Reid rather than with our men and women in uniform. We have isolationist candidates who are apparently more passionate about weakening our military and intelligence capabilities than about destroying our enemies.”
--CHRISTIE speech in Manchester, “Restoring American Leadership,” tries to make the case that a governor is better equipped for the job than a senator -- Excerpt: “Let me speak even more plainly: A failure by our party this year, a failure due to division in our party or inexperience in our nominee, would signal a deeper political crisis, as millions of Americans would conclude that the system no longer works. History is not kind to the incompetent, and it is unrealistic to expect that this dismal record of failure can go on, year after year, without severe consequences for all of us.
“As voters become more frustrated, angry voices sound more reasonable. It’s not enough to just express anger -- we must also elect someone who knows how to get things done. ... America needs leaders who not only identify our problems, but who have the ability to repair our broken system.”
IF YOU’RE IN IOWA or N.H., send us your best behind-the-scenes pic: dlippman@politico.com.
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MEGYN KELLY on Vanity Fair’s Feb. cover, “Blowhards Beware: Megyn Kelly Will Slay You Now,” by Evgenia Peretz: “Kelly’s Trump episode was one in a string of satisfying male-ego deflations that have helped her surpass cable’s biggest news star, Bill O’Reilly, in the key demographic of 25–54. ... The morning of the debate, while doing debate prep, she got violently ill. But, she says, ‘I would have crawled over a pile of hot coals to make it to that debate.’ ... She did the debate with a blanket over her legs and a bucket to throw up in by her side.” http://bit.ly/1Z05tCL See the cover. http://bit.ly/1OuxoZY
TRAIL MIX:
--CRUZ this morning launches a six-day, 28-stop “Cruzin’ to Caucus Iowa Bus Tour” bus tour. Each day has a town hall with “a media availability upon arriving,” plus two to five retail stops. His final event today BEGINS at 10:45 p.m., at Penny’s Diner in Missouri Valley, Iowa. An aide says: “Cruz will focus heavily on one on one voter interaction. He will stick around after remarks to shake hands, take pictures, and answer questions. He will be making the direct ask at his events for Iowans to show up and caucus for Cruz.”
--JEB this afternoon rolls out a policy to address the heroin crisis, during an appearance before the New Hampshire Forum on Addiction and the Heroin Epidemic, in Hooksett. He’s in New Hampshire for the next four days, and will have “national security surrogates” on the road with him. He’ll take a break to do Pat Robertson’s “700 Club.” And he has a new ad coming in N.H., “Force,” about his call at The Citadel for the U.S. to lead a coalition “to take out ISIS with overwhelming force.” 30-sec. YouTube http://bit.ly/1Tz5cFl
--RAND PAUL plans “nonstop events” in New Hampshire this week, with a break Wednesday for a “media day trip to NYC” for stops at Fox, CNN and Stephen Colbert’s “Late Show” on CBS.
--JOHN KASICH has a town hall this morning at the Inspired Grounds Café in West Des Moines Iowa, then flies to New Hampshire for a 6:30 p.m. town hall in Manchester that kicks off five straight days of Granite State events. TV ad begins in N.H. tomorrow.
MILESTONE: @JohnKerry hits 1 million followers, with a steady climb of about 3,000 a day.
THE DEMS – “Congress probes hover over Clinton as voting nears: The Democratic front-runner has slipped GOP lawmakers so far, but they’re still pressing on her emails, Benghazi and Teneo,” by Rachael Bade: “GOP investigators are poised to ramp up their probes in the coming months, and possibly until Election Day. ... Three congressional committees are pursuing separate investigations that touch directly or indirectly on Clinton.” http://politi.co/1PaEbEq
--N.Y. Times, bottom of A1, “Sanders Bets Ground Game On Iowa Upset,” by Trip Gabriel in Des Moines and Amy Chozick in N.Y.: “The campaign has quietly assembled an extensive ground game here, with 100 paid staff members and with trained volunteer leaders for each of the state’s 1,681 caucus precincts. ... A poor result for Mrs. Clinton would leave her hobbling into the New Hampshire primary, where Mr. Sanders leads in most polls, and raise questions about her ability to corral the liberal wing of the party and generate excitement ...
“The Clinton campaign expects a tightening of the Iowa race, where polls show her leading by about 10 percentage points. ... Robby Mook, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager[:] ‘By their nature, caucuses are always close.’ That stance may in part be an effort to lower expectations for Mrs. Clinton and stave off complacency among donors and her field team here.” http://nyti.ms/1UpTn4r
--“Clinton and Sanders cash dash tells tale of 2 campaigns,” by Gabe Debenedetti in Derry, N.H.: “Clinton is seeking to be the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer. Sanders is attempting to lead a movement.” She raised $18 million for other Dems last year; he raised nothing. http://politi.co/1PHsmdw
--“Bill Clinton to stump for his wife, bringing old controversy,” by AP’s Lisa Lerer in Keene, N.H., and Ken Thomas in Davenport, Iowa: “Bill Clinton is back on the presidential campaign trail — and so is his baggage. ... [Today,] he heads out for his first solo campaign events, ... in New Hampshire ... [Trump’s] attacks seem to have struck a nerve.
“At a campaign event in New Hampshire [yesterday], Katherine Prudhomme O’Brien [a Republican state rep] heckled Clinton about her husband’s sexual history, accusing her of enabling him to mistreat women. ‘You are very rude and I’m not going to ever call on you,’ Clinton snapped at O’Brien, after repeated shouted interruptions. ... Chelsea Clinton [is] headlining fundraisers ... in Boston, Atlanta and Chicago.” http://apne.ws/1Z0je4i
--“How Hillary Clinton’s former chief of staff helped a Democratic bundler: Cheryl Mills opened a door for Mack McLarty to promote his car business in China,” by Rachael Bade: “In spring 2011, Mills invited Thomas ‘Mack’ McLarty ... to attend the official dinner after McLarty asked for access because of ‘our substantial family investment in the automotive sector (including electric vehicle development in China).’” http://politi.co/1RadsOC
PLAYBOOK READERS’ favorite campaign ads/videos of 2015 -- “Best use of new technology by a supporter [from June 28]: This is a 360 video ad of a Bernie Sanders event. The interactive format allows users to scroll around the entire area. It's a much neater experience on mobile because the camera moves based on how you move your mobile phone. On desktop, you can move the screen in the top left corner.” http://bit.ly/1QTbeTp
--“Best campaign team video: ‘Give Marco A High-Five For Five Debate Wins!’” – Dec. 15 http://bit.ly/1YIZwKa ...
--“Best candidate interview: ‘15 Questions Marco Won’t Be Asked at the Debate’” – Oct. 27 http://bit.ly/1Omme57 ...
--“Rubio Answers Top Google Searches for Marco Rubio” – April 20
http://bit.ly/1Ja2Tbl
--“Best campaign launch video”: Hillary’s 2-min. April 12 video “Getting Started,” which is up to 4.8 million views http://bit.ly/1Hjjvtx ...
--“Best biography video”: Hillary, June 12, “Fighter” http://bit.ly/1ZuV7wC ...
--“Best issue video”: Hillary, June 24, “Equal” http://bit.ly/1TNbtPk
--“Best use of a supporter to promote your campaign -- a crowd sourced ad agency!”: Dec. 20, “Rand Paul Defends All Rights” http://bit.ly/1OsXZZl ...
--“Interesting attack ad from an opponent”: Rand Paul, Dec. 18, “Where in the World is Marco Rubio?!” http://bit.ly/1IwrJC8 ...
--“Fastest trending debate clip”: Dec. 15, “Rand Paul Opening Statement on Trump and Rubio” http://bit.ly/1mca88C
--“Best campaign creative with the least eyeballs”: Jeb, Nov. 4, “Friday Night Lights” http://bit.ly/1Shaln5
--“Best effort to show authentic side of a candidate”: July 17, “#jebnofilter: Hoodie”
http://bit.ly/22tlLZ7
--“Best campaign Thank You”: Oct, 9, “Dr. Ben Carson ‘ Thanks Hillary’”
http://bit.ly/1R1W4to
--“Best ad you didn’t even realize was a political ad until the end”: Ben Carson, Dec. 8, “These Hands” http://bit.ly/1mcb7Wo
--“Best presidential campaign item to have a Twitter handle”: @healerhauler, “Official @RealBenCarson campaign bus”.
--“Best ad targeting women (even women who think they are Democrats!)”: Carly, Nov. 14, “Faces” http://bit.ly/1OsYuT1
--“Best use of an animal with a presidential candidate”: Dec. 15, IJ, “Why Dogs Are Better Than Cats With Carly Fiorina” http://bit.ly/1YFoDmu
--“Best organic moment on the campaign trail to go viral”: Nov. 4,
“Chris Christie’s plea to change how America handles drug addicts” http://bit.ly/22tlYvr
Full list of Playbookers’ ads/videos/articles of the year via Facebook http://on.fb.me/1OFs8hS
POLL DU JOUR – Esquire and NBC News Launch ‘Rage Survey’”: “[H]alf of all Americans are angrier today than they were a year ago; white Americans are the angriest of all ethnicities, with white women being the angriest subgroup of all; and black Americans ... are not only less than angry than whites but are also more optimistic.” http://bit.ly/1P8E4sS
USED NEWS -- Politico’s Isaac Dovere, 12/29, “Obama’s 2016 world tour” http://politi.co/1NZJXLh ...NYT, in yesterday’s paper, “Foreign-Policy Trips Fill Obama’s Schedule for Final Year” http://nyti.ms/1MOPBf6
SPORTS BLINK – NFL Wild-card Playoffs, via AP: “Saturday, Jan. 9: Kansas City (11-5) at Houston (9-7), 4:35 p.m. (ABC/ESPN); Pittsburgh (10-6) at Cincinnati (12-4), 8:15 p.m. (CBS) ... Sunday, Jan. 10:Seattle (10-6) at Minnesota (11-6), 1 p.m. (NBC); Green Bay (10-6) at Washington (9-7), 4:30 p.m. (FOX).”
TRANSITIONS – David Schwietert, a 15-year Senate veteran most recently staff director of the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation for Chairman John Thune, starts today as EVP of federal and gov’t relations and public policy for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.
WEEKEND WEDDINGS: Meghan Burns, of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, married KISS superfan Philip J. Rector, of YMCA of Metropolitan Washington, on Saturday. Nearly 200 people celebrated at Iacocca Hall on Lehigh University's Mountaintop Campus in Bethlehem, Pa (the bride and groom are from the Lehigh Valley, and are, in fact, high school sweethearts), and danced until well past the cut-off time. The bride plans to keep her maiden name for work and family, and married name for everything else (starting with the credit cards…).” Pic http://bit.ly/1RYQ1aJ
ENGAGED -- Stephen Parker to Elizabeth Bennett: “We first met when we were both working at the National Governors Association in 2012. Stephen is still there - serving as Legislative Director. I left in 2013 to found Fruitcycle, a healthy snack company with a social mission. Last week, Stephen surprised me with a trip to Kentucky, where our romance began. On Tuesday, December 29, he asked me to marry him at the Woodford Reserve distillery; their entire staff was in on the surprise. ... This is the first NGA wedding in recent memory (at least 13 years) and we’re not certain, but possibly the first ever.” Pic http://bit.ly/1OuijaQ... The proposal http://bit.ly/1mue98p
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Politico’s Matthew Woelfel ... Maggie Chan
BIRTHDAYS: Ben Mayer, senior broadcast producer of “Morning Joe,” is 32 ... Rob Gifford, senior broadcast producer for “With All Due Respect,” is 37, celebrating by piloting the first WADR that will re-air on MSNBC at 6 p.m. (h/t wife Jacqueline Gifford) ... Doris Kearns Goodwin is 73 ... James Warren, chief media writer for the Poynter Institute, and contributing editor for N.Y. Daily News ... Politico’s David Kihara, the quiet hero who helps keep Politico.com running, and Playbook in your in-box ... Politico’s Caitlin Emma is 27 ... Samantha Slosberg of Hillary for America and a Dewey Square Group alum ... Politico’s Deborah Matteliano ... Sarah Andrews, a Vermont native, Obama campaign alum, now living in Cedar Rapids as a field staffer on the Hillary campaign, celebrating with Hillary herself, in Cedar Rapids for a rally (h/t boyfriend Dylan Roberts) ... Don Shula, the winningest coach in NFL history (and now Shula’s Steak House magnate), is 86 ...
... Jeremy Funk, comms. director of Americans United for Change … Barbara Menard … David Muir, British political consultant and former Harvard Institute of Politics visiting fellow … Qianwei Zhang, associate at Prism Group ... Peter Schorsch of Extensive Enterprises, in Florida … Doug Centilli ... Jen Flaherty, a Romney alum … Michele Remillard, executive producer of C–SPAN’s Washington Journal … Anthony Terrell ... WJLA’s Brian van de Graaff and his son Tony, who shares his birthday … Nan Aron, founder and president of Alliance for Justice … Madeleine Daly, daughter of Meredith Carlson Daly and Matthew Daly of AP ... Hoyer alum Terry Lierman ... Joe Hansen ... Belen Mendoza ... Lorraine Driscoll (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Chip Kahn, CEO and president of the Federation of American Hospitals ... Adam Goldman is 44 ... Ronnie Stangler ... David Phelps ... Anthony Terrell ... Doug Centilli ... Brian van de Graaff ... Jeff Angevine ... Rob Recklaus is 44 … country singer Patty Loveless is 59 ... comedian-actress Charlyne Yi is 30 ... actress-singer Coco Jones is 18 (h/ts AP)
BIRTHDAY TOMORROW: David Bauder, AP media writer in New York
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