2016-01-05

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)

Good Tuesday morning. THE CONVERSATION – “Trump and Cruz send shivers down GOP spines: The prospect of either man as the Republican nominee is setting off alarm bells among officials and operatives,” by Alex Isenstadt: Veteran GOP consultant Alex Castellanos “has been meeting with top GOP operatives and donors to gauge interest in launching an anti-Trump vehicle that would pummel the real estate mogul on the television airwaves. ... Castellanos has said that an anti-Trump ad campaign, which would be designed to cast him as a flawed strongman, would cost well into the millions. It was unclear ... whether Castellanos, who did not respond to a request for comment, would ultimately go through with the effort.

“One growing worry about Trump or Cruz, top party officials, donors, and operatives ... say, is that nominating either man would imperil lawmakers in down-ballot races ... ‘At some point we have to deal with the fact that there are at least two candidates who could utterly destroy the Republican bench for a generation if they became the nominee,’ said Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. ‘We’d be hard pressed to elect a Republican dogcatcher north of the Mason-Dixon or west of the Mississippi.’ ...

“Romney has been calling around to former advisers ... to kvetch about Trump’s surprising durability. But ... he has expressed unwillingness to lend his hand to a stop-Trump effort — or to endorse a candidate more palatable to [the] GOP establishment.” http://politi.co/1OJx8C9

--Boston Herald cover, with Trump pointing finger: “GET ’EM OUT! Defiant Trump boots hecklers, keeps up attack on Hillary in Lowell,” Mass. See the cover. http://bit.ly/1Z2JISC

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PLAY OF THE DAY – Ted Cruz to reporters in Iowa, on the Oregon standoff: “Every one of us has a constitutional right to protest, to speak our minds. But we don’t have a constitutional right to use force and violence and to threaten force and violence on others ... And so it is our hope that the protesters there will stand down peaceably, that there will not be a violent confrontation.”

HOW NOT TO DO IT -- “Kasich, running for president, professes ignorance of Oregon standoff,” by Des Moines Register’s William Petroski: “Kasich ... repeatedly told a reporter from The Des Moines Register on Monday that he didn’t know anything about it. Then Kasich excused himself and headed outside to his vehicle.” http://dmreg.co/1R8GhdY

PIC DU JOUR -- @CarlyFiorina: “I’m here in New Hampshire—and I’m starting 2016 off strong! [pic of Carly at the breakfast table at Maddie’s Bagel and Eatery in Salem]” http://bit.ly/1JUIvWK

CRUZ RECORD – “How Ted Cruz Became Ted Cruz,” by Michael Kruse: “Cruz’s record as [Texas] solicitor general shows he used the role in a new and far more ideological way than his predecessors, taking a relatively low-profile job that had traditionally been used mostly to defend the state government and turning it into a stage for pushing national conservative causes. Cruz argued eight cases in front of the U.S. Supreme Court—far more than his predecessors and successors—using each of them to advance a position endorsed by conservative thinkers.” http://politi.co/1OJf37b

--Dallas Morning News, middle of 1A, “Cruz takes to road to woo Iowa voters: Texan hopes to lock up support for victory in caucuses on Feb. 1,” by Todd Gillman in Winterset, Iowa: “The [six-day Cruzin’ to Caucus] schedule originally called for 36 stops. The campaign lopped off eight in case of bad weather. ... Social and religious conservatives dominate the GOP caucuses. They’re well-organized and motivated, which makes a huge difference in a system and state where winning takes as few as 30,000 votes.” http://bit.ly/1PHydxF

--SPOTTED: Catherine Frazier, Cruz national press secretary, going for a run in Boone, Iowa, at 6:30 a.m., before yesterday’s first event. Temperature: 21 degrees. Sixteen hours later, she tweeted: “CRUZ: why am I so optimistic? Because it’s 10:30 at night at a diner in Iowa and it's standing room only.” Pic http://bit.ly/1ZLsT0F

RUBIO SOUNDING MORE LIKE TRUMP: “Surprising” shift to “more aggressive language”: fitting for the more despairing tone the GOP candidates are taking nowadays – NYT’s Jeremy Peters ledeall from Burlington, Iowa (p. A15): Rubio “until now has rejected the more strident tone of rivals like Mr. Trump for a message that is more upbeat. But recently he has attacked rivals from both parties, amplified his tough talk on terrorism and warned in more dire terms than usual that many Americans feel out of place in their own country.

“While he has routinely called Mr. Obama a weak president, in his speech on Monday, Mr. Rubio was more harsh and more personally critical. ‘When America needed a bold plan of action from our commander in chief, we instead got a lecture on love, tolerance, and gun control designed to please the talking heads at MSNBC ... The result of all of this is that people are afraid. And they have every right to be.” http://nyti.ms/1JUOdYG

2016 PLAYERS -- “Former Huckabee spokeswoman Alice Stewart joins Cruz campaign,” by Daniel Strauss: “Stewart said she cemented a deal to join the Texas senator in the past week. She will serve as a national spokeswoman and senior adviser.” http://politi.co/1JUIbHt

CHRISTIE STRATEGERY -- “Christie Shifts Focus to Iowa, Betting Big on Governor’s Team,” by Time’s Zeke Miller in Waukee, Iowa: “As recently as a few months ago, even Christie’s top aides predicted he would spend all his time in 1,200 miles away in New Hampshire ... But in recent weeks, the Christie has shifted strategy as he eyes an opening in Iowa, not to win, but to place ahead of Bush.” http://ti.me/22HUVwJ

** A message from Ford Motor Company: We are committed to making people’s lives better by changing the way the world moves. Ford is tripling its fleet of fully autonomous Fusion Hybrid test vehicles this year. Learn more about Ford Smart Mobility: http://ford.to/FordCES2016 **

COON SUPPER: One of the classic political events is coming up Saturday night: the 73rd annual Coon Supper in Gillett, Ark. Flier for “Pre-Coon Supper Reception” http://bit.ly/1RdYI14

DRIVING THE DAY: 11:40 a.m., East Room: “THE PRESIDENT delivers remarks on reducing gun violence and making our communities safer; THE VICE PRESIDENT also attends.”

-- “Obama rolls out gun control strategy,” by Sarah Wheaton: “[T]he actions include ... a bid to close the so-called gun show loophole. The administration is also finalizing a few other rules ... including new requirements for reporting guns lost or stolen in transit, and a measure that would allow more mental health records to be submitted to the federal background check registry by removing patient privacy limits. The FBI is also adding 230 agents devoted to processing background check.” http://politi.co/1ZLxEYk

POLITICO INVESTIGATION -- “Obama’s vanishing administration: Why are so many crucial jobs empty?” by Darren Samuelsohn: “The Treasury Department does not have a Senate-confirmed undersecretary to handle terrorism financing ... The State Department hasn’t had a permanent legal adviser for three years ... As Obama now takes his final lap in the White House, dozens of crucial jobs in his administration are either totally empty or run by an acting deputy. A POLITICO analysis of Cabinet-level agencies found that as senior aides have bolted for higher paying gigs, their jobs have remained empty -- in some cases with replacements stuck in Senate limbo who may never get confirmed. More than a quarter of the administration’s most senior jobs, more than 100 overall, are missing permanent occupants.” http://politi.co/1ZLvU12

MILESTONES – “With the departure of Secretary Duncan at the end of 2015, Secretary Vilsack is the one remaining member of President Obama’s original cabinet. On June 22, Secretary Vilsack will surpass Henry Wallace as the longest serving Secretary of Agriculture from Iowa.”

D’OH! “Bush Has ‘Mistaken And Conflated’ Story About Receiving NRA Award, Campaign Admits,” by BuzzFeed’s Andrew Kaczynski: “The former Florida governor has told the story on several occasions, saying he received a rifle from then-NRA president Charlton Heston and was the recipient of the group’s ‘statesman of the year’ honor in 2003. While the NRA rates the records of politicians on gun issues, the group does not hand out a statesman of the year award.” http://bzfd.it/1OJiKcT

DAILY TRUMP -- WashPost, bottom of A1, “Attacking ‘political correctness’ taps political gold,” by Karen Tumulty and Jenna Johnson (online: “Why Trump may be winning the war on ‘political correctness’”): “The [GOP] candidates have suggested that it is the explanation for ... terrorism, illegal immigration, an economic recovery that is leaving many behind ... ‘“Political correctness” are the two words that best respond to everything that a conservative feels put upon,’ [said] pollster Frank Luntz ... [They see the label as] validation that ... policy and cultural differences are not the same as racism, sexism or heartlessness.” http://wapo.st/1kHBMc3

--“Trump’s first TV ad shows migrants ‘at the southern border,’ but they’re actually in Morocco,” by Politifact’s C. Eugene Emery Jr. and Louis Jacobson: “About halfway through the ad, a narrator says of Trump, ‘He’ll stop illegal immigration by building a wall on our southern border that Mexico will pay for.’ Video footage shows dozens of people streaming across the border, as if they were ants fleeing an anthill. The clear suggestion is that the footage is of the ‘southern border’ between the United States and Mexico. But it’s not -- it’s 5,000 miles away, in a small Spanish enclave on the mainland of Morocco.” http://bit.ly/1TB0V41

--NBC’s @alivitali: “Trump camp mgr reax: ‘No s*** it’s not the Mexican border but that’s what our country is going to look like. This was 1,000% on purpose.’”

WHAT N.H. IS READING – Top of Union Leader front page has a pic of Bill Clinton bending over and leaning in for a selfie at Nashua Community College – Kimberly Houghton: “Clinton gave a glowing endorsement of his wife [before an audience of about 700. He] said a lot of progress has been made under ... Obama, specifically advancements in the environment, auto industry and LED lights. If a Republican President is elected, a lot of that progress will be reversed, Clinton said.” http://bit.ly/1Z2HylS

--Boston Globe, bottom of A1, “Trump, Bill Clinton avoid personal dustup in nearby rallies,” by Jim O’Sullivan and James Pindell: “Trump did not utter [Bill’s] name ... during a rally [in Lowell, Mass., instead attacking] Hillary ... ‘She has the biggest teleprompters I’ve ever seen’ ... A retail stop at the Puritan Backroom [in Manchester allowed Bill Clinton] to tell stories about the 50th anniversary of the Normandy invasion and chat with diners about his favorite meals — chili with spaghetti — back before doctors had encouraged him to eat more healthfully. He ... stopped at the bar to watch CNN coverage of his Nashua speech.” http://bit.ly/1JqWxEk

– Gabe Debenedetti emails: “Behind the scenes at Bill Clinton’s 2016 debut in Nashua, NH. This is only part of the media presence. Huge national group here @ Nashua Community College” http://bit.ly/1ZLpqiX

--“Chelsea Clinton to headline fundraiser at SoulCycle in Tribeca,” by Annie Karni: “On Jan. 27 at 2 p.m., Chelsea Clinton will headline the campaign’s first exercise fundraiser at the Tribeca studio on Warren Street ... At the fundraiser, supporters who contribute $2,700 will be part of ‘Chelsea’s pack,’ and entitled to a ‘premium reserved bike’ and a photo with Chelsea Clinton. A limited number of tickets are also available for $1,000 or $500. ... Chelsea ... is a longtime devotee of the group exercise classes. She and fellow former first daughter Jenna Bush have been spotted cycling in the same classes.” http://politi.co/1JqDUka

AIR WAR -- “Rubio PAC to hit Christie in New Hampshire,” by National Review’s Elaina Johnson: “The first spot is aimed at conservative voters ... ‘One high tax, Common Core, liberal energy loving, Obamacare Medicaid expanding president is enough,’ a narrator says … The second is intended to sway the moderate and independent voters ... [and] highlights New Jersey’s high tax burden, low rate of job growth, and the indictment of his former aides in the Bridgegate scandal.” With the ads http://bit.ly/1VCktX7

FIRST LOOK -- “POLITICO co-founders John F. Harris and Jim VandeHei will talk about their vision for journalism at the National Press Foundation’s annual awards dinner on ... Feb. 11.VandeHei and Harris will receive the Benjamin C. Bradlee Editor of the Year Award at the dinner, which will also honor Charlie Rose and Diane Rehm and two new digital innovation in journalism awards.” http://politi.co/1Z4oetR ... Dinner page http://bit.ly/1R8FWYA

PULLING BACK THE CAMERA – N.Y. Times, bottom of A1, “Last Inhabitant of TV’s Big Culture Tent Prepares to Pack It Up” – Critic’s Notebook by James Poniewozik: “‘American Idol’ ... begins its 15th and farewell season [tomorrow] with a premiere full of callbacks. ... The end of ‘Idol’ marks the folding-up of TV’s last cultural big tent. The populace still reunites for the Oscars and the Super Bowl; there are still (relatively) big hits like ‘The Walking Dead’ and ‘Empire.’ But none of them are what ‘Idol’ was at its peak: a weekly destination for all ages and many tastes. ... [S]ocial media changed [the] rules, ... giving musicians an even more direct conduit to audiences than reality TV did and contributing to the show’s eventual downfall. ...

“The problem for ‘Idol’ was not so much that reality TV went away — it’s still all over cable and the networks — but that ‘reality,’ the cultural force of authenticity and disintermediation, had dispersed into social media. ... It helps new artists break out (see the Vine star Shawn Mendes) and lets established ones like Taylor Swift and Kanye West make their Instagram and Twitter feeds into a kind of do-it-yourself(ie) reality show.” http://nyti.ms/1ZLq4Nb

GET SMART FAST – WashPost 1.5-col. lead, “Soaring tensions in the Mideast ... U.S., others call for restraint on both sides,” by Liz Sly in Beirut: “The Obama administration [is] caught in the middle by its quest for a closer relationship with Iran and its long-standing alliance with Saudi Arabia ... The implications of the Saudi-Iranian rift extend far beyond their immediate rivalry as competing regional powerhouses and encompass almost all of the wars raging in the Middle East. The current crisis could further complicate efforts to resolve the Syrian war and could strengthen, by default, the Islamic State.” http://wapo.st/1JqW7hp

OBAMA ALUMNI -- CAITLIN HAYDEN promoted -- Edelman D.C. President Rob Rehg emails the staff: “Hayden [will lead] our Media Relations team. ... Caitlin served as Special Assistant to President Obama, the National Security Council Senior Director for Strategic Communications and Press, and the National Security Council ... Spokesperson.”

TRANSITIONS: Molly Haigh (formerly of Fitzgibbon Media and 350.org) to comms director for Progressive Change Campaign Committee -- joining Marissa Barrow in PCCC press shop.

SPORTS BLINK – NFL “Relocation-Rdp: Chargers, Raiders, Rams file for relocation to Los Angeles,” by AP Sports Writer Bernie Wilson in San Diego: “The San Diego Chargers, Oakland Raiders and St. Louis Rams filed for relocation to the Los Angeles area on Monday night, trying not to be left out in the race to return the NFL to the nation's second-largest market after a 21-year absence. The Chargers want to partner with the AFC West rival Raiders on a stadium in Carson. ... All owners will meet in Houston next week and are expected to vote on whether to allow any of the teams to move.” http://yhoo.it/1PJZPUs

ENGAGED – Travis Considine of Sidewire to Morgan Smith of Texas Tribune: “I proposed to Morgan two days before Christmas on the shore of Lake Arrowhead [Calif.], ... where we were celebrating the holidays with our families. I first met Morgan in the chambers of the Texas Senate, where she was covering the 2013 Texas Legislature and I was working for the lieutenant governor. We didn’t start dating until a year and a half later, when a mutual friend re-connected us. At that point I was working for Gov. Perry’s presidential campaign.” Pic, taken this weekend during a hunting trip in West Texas http://bit.ly/1Z2Ec2i

WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Rob Hoppin, CEO of Hillenby and an alum of Sens. Frist, Gilmore and Warner, and Jill Hoppin: “We are delighted to have welcomed our daughter, Clara Frances Hoppin, into the world early Saturday morning at Inova Fairfax Hospital. Our beautiful, sweet and strong little girl is as healthy as can be at 6 pounds, 4 ounces and 19 inches tall. And Jill is recovering nicely, showing great resilience after another roller coaster labor and delivery. Big brother Thomas is thrilled with his new baby sister. He’s having great fun playing locomotive and pulling Clara around the hospital in her shiny choo-choo box car — also known to some of us less imaginative grown ups as a bassinet.” Pic http://bit.ly/1UsjyaI

BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Hillary Brandenburg, special adviser in Treasury’s Office of Financial Institutions ... Philly lobbyist Holly Kinser (h/t Ted Greener)

BIRTHDAYS: Charlie Rose, celebrating a year of triumphs for “Charlie Rose,” “Charlie Rose: The Week,” “CBS This Morning,” “60 Minutes,” Charlie Rose: The Weekend, reporting trips to Silicon Valley and Russia, and so much more ... former CIA Director George Tenet is 63 ... former Vice President Walter Mondale is 88 ... former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell … John Solomon ... Katie Lillie, alumna of the White House and U.S. Mission to the UN, currently global outreach director at Tina Brown Live/Women in the World, and Manchester United fan (h/t Ben Chang) ... Allison Price, former DOJ spokesman and Reid’s mom (hubby tip: Jonathan Kaplan) ... Mimi Mager, Mager & Associates ... Alexis Bataillon, chief of staff for corporate responsibility at JPMorgan Chase ... Kristen Grimm, president of Spitfire Strategies (h/ts Jon Haber) ... WSJ’s Nick Timiraos ... Nick Lanyi, SVP of public affairs at Porter Novelli ... Danielle Melfi, Hillary organizer and a Deloitte alum ... Jenna, daughter of Nadeam Elshami ...

... Christine Hall, director of comms. at Competitive Enterprise Institute ... Richard Harris ... Jeff Hauser, project manager at the Revolving Door Project at the Center for Effective Government ... Josh Galper ... Daniel Sieberg ... John Drogin, a Ted Cruz alum now executive director at Make DC Listen ... Majid Siddiqui ... AP’s Shelley Adler ... Veronica Vaquer ... Sharon Scates ... John Reid ... Aaron Dowd … Lara Bergthold … Patrick Ottenhoff ... Joe Wineke … Sara Wisgerhof Throener … Kevin Ronnie … Thad Nation (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... actor Robert Duvall is 85 ... Diane Keaton is 70 ... Pamela Sue Martin is 63 ... Marilyn Manson is 47 ... Derek Cecil (“House of Cards,” “Treme”) is 43 ... Bradley Cooper is 41 ... January Jones is 38 ... actress Brooklyn Sudano is 35 (h/ts AP)

** A message from Ford Motor Company: We are driving innovation in every part of our business. Ford is tripling its fleet of fully autonomous Ford Fusion Hybrid test vehicles – making it the largest in the automotive industry – and will use a new-generation sensor technology to further accelerate our autonomous vehicle development plans. This year, Ford will add 20 Fusion Hybrid autonomous vehicles, bringing the company's autonomous fleet to about 30 vehicles being tested on roads and test tracks in California, Arizona and Michigan.

Building on more than a decade of Ford’s autonomous vehicle research, this expansion represents a key element of Ford Smart Mobility – our plan to bring the company to the next level in connectivity, mobility, autonomous vehicles, the customer experience as well as data and analytics.

At this week’s CES, we are sharing more of what is ahead in 2016. Follow us @ford or visit http://ford.to/FordCES2016 **

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