By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; mallen@politico.com) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; dlippman@politico.com)
Good Monday morning, and happy shoveling. Iowa caucuses are one week from tonight; the New Hampshire primary is eight days later – two weeks from tomorrow.
JUST POSTED! GLENN THRUSH interview with POTUS – “Obama on 2016: ... In [a 40-min.] Oval Office interview for POLITICO’s Off Message podcast [on Friday], the president offers his most expansive comments yet on the race to succeed him”: “[H]e couldn’t hide his obvious affection for Clinton or his implicit feeling that she, not Sanders, best understands the unpalatably pragmatic demands of a presidency he likens to the world’s most challenging walk-and-chew-gum exercise. ‘[The] one thing everybody understands is that this job right here, you don’t have the luxury of just focusing on one thing,’ a relaxed and reflective Obama told me in his most expansive discussion of the 2016 race to date. ...
“‘Bernie came in with the luxury of being a complete long shot and just letting loose ... I think Hillary came in with the both privilege – and burden – of being perceived as the frontrunner… You’re always looking at the bright, shiny object that people haven’t seen before – that's a disadvantage to her ... I don’t want to play political consultant, because obviously what he’s doing is working. I will say that the longer you go in the process, the more you’re going to have to pass a series of hurdles that the voters are going to put in front of you.’ ...
“[W]hen I asked him if Sanders reminded him of himself in 2008, he quickly shot me down: ‘I don’t think that's true.’ ... I spoke to a half-dozen current and former top Obama advisers in preparation for the podcast, and to a person, they described the boss as in a nostalgic, pensive frame of mind ... He still keeps in touch with many architects of the 2008 Iowa strategy.” Glenn’s article http://politi.co/1QuTVHd ... Transcript http://politi.co/1nj6gCG ... The podcast http://politi.co/20oubPL iTunes link: Subscribe to “Off Message” here http://apple.co/1K4Rxpi
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SIREN ... DAVID AXELROD on N.Y. Times Op-Ed page, “The Obama Theory of Trump: In presidential elections, opposites attract”: “Like most of the other talking heads on TV, I was haughtily dismissive of Donald Trump’s candidacy. ... What seemed impossible is now more than plausible: Donald J. Trump ... could pull off a hostile takeover of the Grand Old Party. The galling thing is, if I had only reread my own words, written nine years ago to another aspiring candidate, I would have taken the Trump candidacy more seriously from the start. In late 2006, when Barack Obama was a first-term senator pondering a long-shot race for the presidency, he asked me to write a strategic memo exploring his prospects. My bullish analysis[:] ...
“Open-seat presidential elections are shaped by perceptions of the style and personality of the outgoing incumbent. Voters ... almost always seek ... personal qualities the public finds lacking in the departing executive. ... The Republican base is infuriated by Mr. Obama’s activist view of government and progressive initiatives ... [M]any Republicans view dimly the very qualities that played so well for Mr. Obama in 2008. Deliberation is seen as hesitancy; patience as weakness. ... So who among the Republicans is more the antithesis of Mr. Obama than the trash-talking, authoritarian, give-no-quarter Mr. Trump?” http://nyti.ms/1PuYMcv
UNDERSTANDING TRUMP – WSJ A1, above fold, “A Method to Trump Attacks: The GOP front-runner personally plots and improvises his barbs, policy proclamations,” by Monica Langley in Nashua, N.H.: “Trump flies ... with just a few senior aides. On a Jan. 18 flight to Concord, N.H., sitting in his cream-colored leather club chair at a pearlwood desk trimmed in 24-carat gold, he read and watched news reports on the race, jotting notes on his perceptions of candidates’ flaws. ... Ten minutes before landing, he grabbed paper, scrawling five points—15 words—on what to say ...
“‘I’m strategic, but trying to do the right thing and only saying what I have a very strong opinion on before going into battle,’ he said on the plane. ‘Interestingly, people say that’s what everybody’s thinking but nobody wants to say it.’ His jotted items: ‘SELF-FUNDING SUPER PACS,’ ‘NOW BLOCK SYRIAN REFUGEES,’ ‘2ND AMENDMENT,’ ‘HILLARY CLINTON A DISASTER,’ ‘STOCK MARKET.’ At the event, he loosely followed his note, talking broadly and then returning to items on his list. ... ‘Without a photographic memory, you can’t speak without notes ... My memory is one of the greats.’” http://on.wsj.com/1SecX4H
STATE OF THE ART – L.A. Times A1, top of col. 1, “Flood of GOP money wasted on ads: Top spenders Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are trailing in the polls in Iowa,” by Joseph Tanfani: “Bush and ... Rubio, the top two spenders, have spent about 10 times as much on ads as have the two polling leaders in Iowa, ... Trump and ... Cruz ... — who until recently bought far fewer ads than their rivals. ... [T]he negative correlation between spending and support appears to be the result of the ever-evolving media landscape and a few other factors, some unique to 2016: a celebrity front-runner, a crowded field, questionable campaign strategies and voter burnout.
“‘It’s a complete waste of money, and I think people are starting to figure that out,’ Barry Bennett, a Republican strategist, said of the expensive strategy of outside groups blanketing the airways with advertising at premium rates. Bennett, former campaign manager for Ben Carson, now is advising Trump.” http://lat.ms/1QuUeli
** A message from Walmart: 1.2 million Associates to Receive a Raise: At Walmart, we are committed to investing in our associates. That’s why this February we’re increasing our starting wages and giving all 1.2 million of our associates a raise. It’s part of our two-year $2.7 billion investment in workers. Learn more. http://bit.ly/1lCn2eR **
PLAYBOOK COCKTAILS are ON tonight: Come warm up with fellow Playbookers! Doors open at 5:30 p.m. for a one-on-one conversation with former National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, followed by a keynote interview with former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates about his new book, “A Passion for Leadership.” We’ll be at the W hotel, 515 15th St. NW (F St. between 14th and 15th). RSVP: http://bit.ly/1OvLFlC
MEDIA PRIMARY -- “Trump cracks Cruz’s lock on conservative media: The Texan had the right’s most influential voices wired, but it’s the New Yorker who is now driving their ratings,” by Eli Stokols and Hadas Gold, with Katie Glueck: “While Breitbart, ... financed in large part by Cruz’s biggest donor, had served as something of a home for both Trump and Cruz, the site has begun to validate Trump’s questioning of Cruz’s U.S. citizenship ... And Rush Limbaugh, who had consistently defended Cruz, told his listeners he was ‘sitting out’ the skirmish between the two leading GOP contenders.” http://politi.co/20opLbE
--@glennbeck, endorsing Cruz: “I have prayed for the next George Washington – I believe I have found him”.
--RICK PERRY endorses Cruz -- Katie Glueck: “Perry ... said he now sees the race as one that is between Cruz, a fellow Texan, and Donald Trump. Through phone calls and during a December day spent driving around his Round Top, Texas, home in his truck with Cruz, Perry said he found the senator to be a good listener who respects the Tenth Amendment, ‘knows what he does not know’ and is more conservative than Trump. ... Perry ... will campaign with Cruz Tuesday across Iowa, and will join Iowa GOP Rep. Steve King to stump for Cruz again Wednesday.” http://politi.co/1Sell45
WHAT IOWA IS READING – Des Moines Register lead story, “Warm or wet, sizzling turnout possible:Cycle’s perceived stakes, two-party dynamic likely to withstand weather,” by Charly Haly: “The ... preliminary forecast shows caucus night has a 50 percent chance of being ‘warmer than normal’ across Iowa. ‘Normal’ temperatures for Feb. 1 in Des Moines are a high of 32 degrees and a low of 15 degrees ... There’s also a 40 percent chance of more precipitation than normal across Iowa ... could be rain or snow.” http://dmreg.co/1OJ6cWe
TALES FROM THE TRAIL -- RYAN LIZZA in The New Yorker, “The Duel: The Trump and Cruz campaigns embody opposite views of politics and the future of the G.O.P.”: “Trump has a rule at his rallies: for the fifty minutes before he takes the stage, the only music that can be played is from a set list that he put together. The list shows a sensitive side, mixing in Elton John’s ‘Tiny Dancer’ and music from ‘Cats’ and ‘The Phantom of the Opera.’ But it’s heavy on the Rolling Stones – ‘Sympathy for the Devil,’ ‘You Can’t Always Get What You Want,’ and the famously impolitic ‘Brown Sugar.’
“The young volunteer in charge of music for one rally sent me the full Trump curated playlist and asked for requests. ‘Remember,’ he said, ‘the more inappropriate for a political event, the better.’”http://bit.ly/1ZMS6Gh
... Barry Blitt’s cover, “Bad Reception,” shows JFK, Lincoln, TR, Washington (with his hand in his face) and FDR watching Trump on television http://bit.ly/1ZY1rAp
E.J. DIONNE JR. column in WashPost, “Still looking for her spark”: “My hunch is that Clinton’s stock is being undersold. After Iowa and New Hampshire, the contest moves to ground far more favorable to her. Her standing in most national polls ... remains strong ... But Sanders’s new ad built around Simon and Garfunkel’s song ‘America’ is a warning to Clinton: It brilliantly captures how his campaign, like Obama’s, feels like a movement.” http://wapo.st/1K69JPp
BOSTON GLOBE endorses, “Hillary Clinton deserves Democratic nomination”: “Tumultuous as they’ve been, the Barack Obama years have proved transformative — and the priority for Democratic voters should be to protect, consolidate, and extend those gains. ... This is Clinton’s time, and the Globe enthusiastically endorses her.” http://bit.ly/1QnrBEK
--GLOBE endorses in GOP race tonight, for tomorrow’s paper. We bet: KASICH!
2016 PLAYERS -- “Hillary Clinton Taps Sarah Bard as Jewish Outreach Director” – JTA: “Sarah Bard, 35, served on Clinton’s unsuccessful 2008 campaign and then switched to President Barack Obama’s campaign when he won the nomination. She led the Jewish Leadership Council during Obama’s 2012 reelection campaign, a fundraising body for the campaign.
She also worked for the [DNC], as an aide to its chairwoman, Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Fla., one of the most prominent Jewish lawmakers. In that capacity, Bard worked on Jewish outreach.” http://bit.ly/1niIjLQ
MIKE BARNICLE in The Daily Beast, “Bernie Mania Is Real And Powerful”: “Sanders’ has never wavered from his core beliefs across four decades. Now, the cross-currents of culture, politics, endless war, anxiety, frustration, a 2008 economic collapse of markets and confidence have swirled together to present Hillary Clinton with a ghost of 2008: A man, another man, whose time may have simply arrived…for the moment.” http://thebea.st/1QnryZN
POWER PLAYERS – “Britain and Bill Gates announce [$4 billion] to eradicate malaria” – AFP/London -- “Britain’s finance minister and ... Gates unveiled ... a plan to spend billions [on research] to eradicate ‘the world's deadliest killer’ ... The fund would be made up of £500 million a year from Britain's overseas aid budget for the next five years, as well as $200 million this year from The Gates Foundation, with more donations to follow.” http://yhoo.it/1WJpzBz
-- “Philadelphia’s former police chief [Charles Ramsey] to advise Chicago force,” by AP’s Don Babwin:“[Ramsey is a] former deputy superintendent of the Chicago Police who left to head departments in Washington, D.C., and Philadelphia [and] is returning to the city to help reform a force that’s trying to regain public trust.” http://apne.ws/1Nua09I
55 YEARS AGO TODAY: “In 1961, President John F. Kennedy held the first presidential news conference to be carried live on radio and television,” per AP. It was also the first of his administration, and was held at 6 p.m. in the auditorium of the New State Department Building.
A sidebar from page 12 of the next day’s N.Y. Times, “‘Kennedy and Press’ Seems a Hit: Star Shows Skill as Showman,” by Russell Baker, from Washington: “The new-style Presidential news conference, which replaced ‘Popeye the Sailor Man’ at kiddie time on the home screen tonight, looks like a hit ... [A]t times there were as many as thirty persons on their feet shouting simultaneously for the President’s attention.” NYT A1 on the presser: http://nyti.ms/1WJjQeS ... Russell Baker (for Times subscribers) http://nyti.ms/1ZMNkbW
CLICKER – “Meet The Candidates In 100 Words And 60 Seconds” – NPR.org http://n.pr/1K5ZACf
SPOTTED: Al Cardenas at a CVS yesterday afternoon on Massachusetts Avenue near Mount Vernon Triangle
TV THIS MORNING – “Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld will sit down with Matt Lauer for an exclusive, live, in-studio interview ... on NBC’s TODAY.”
KATIE COURIC’s new film – “Under the Gun, executive produced and narrated by Katie Couric and directed by Stephanie Soechtig, [premiered Sunday] at the Sundance Film Festival. The film follows families who have been impacted by gun violence, including former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who survived a gunshot wound to the head in January 2011. In exploring the political power of the National Rifle Association, the film spoke with advocates on both sides of the issue, but the NRA declined to participate.”
THE NEW GILDED AGE -- “Uber ends helicopter rides to Sundance Film Festival,” by Salt Lake Tribune’s Pamela Mason: “Uber ... halted its temporary UberCHOPPER service that ferried passengers from Salt Lake City International Airport to Park City, a day after the Summit County sheriff ordered the aircraft grounded ... [and] warned that pilots could be arrested and the helicopters impounded.” http://bit.ly/1OIOFxm
FIRST LOOK -- Video preview of IJ’s upcoming football-themed Marco video, “Rubio’s Revenge” http://bit.ly/1KyYTwr
MEDIAWATCH – From Fortune Editor Alan Murray’s CEO Daily newsletter, going out this a.m.: “On Friday evening, FORTUNE assembled nearly 30 corporate leaders for a discussion that focused on what big business can do to rebuild its trust with a global public that has clearly grown skeptical. ... The single table conversation covered the need to put purpose as well as profit at the center of a company’s strategy, the importance of transparency in an age of social media, the value of engaged employees in spreading a company’s story, and the need to build customer trust one person at a time.”
ENGAGED: Caitlin O’Connell, comms coordinator for POLITICO States & Media, got engaged on Sunday to Bob Fitchette, who works at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in bank regulatory policy. They met five years ago at the Dead Poet bar on the Upper West Side in Manhattan; at the time, he was living in D.C., working on the legislative staff in the Secretary’s Office of the U.S. Senate. He proposed yesterday morning at her favorite spot in New York City, the Robert F. Wagner, Jr. Park in Battery Park City. Pic http://bit.ly/1JwzzMD
SUPER BOWL 50 BLINK – Carolina “Panthers open up 4-point favorites in Vegas over Broncos,” by AP’s Tim Dahlberg in Vegas: “Oddsmakers didn’t even wait until the Panthers finished off the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday to install them as favorites for the game against the Denver Broncos two weeks from now. At most books, ... the Panthers were a 4-point pick, though the early line varied, with the over/under settling in at 45.” http://apne.ws/1lJxAc6
--LOOKAHEAD – “50th Super Bowl: Manning’s Broncos face Newton’s Panthers,” by AP Pro Football Writer Howard Fendrich: “Peyton Manning is ... at 39, the oldest starting quarterback to lead a team to the Super Bowl. ... Manning’s fourth Super Sunday appearance [likely] will be his last game as a pro. Cam Newton is at the opposite end of his career, just 26, making his debut in the big game ... in Santa Clara, California [in Silicon Valley], on Feb. 7 ... [T]he two quarterbacks ... were No. 1 overall draft picks 13 years apart. ‘Oh, wow,’ said Newton ... ‘Playing “The Sheriff.”” http://apne.ws/1nty7AK
BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Brian Chesemore … “Kiki”
BIRTHDAYS: Tina Tchen, the First Lady's longest serving chief of staff, is 6-0 (hat tip: Valerie) ... NYT’s Jeremy Peters ... Jack Oliver, senior policy advisor at Bryan Cave Strategies and a Bush 43 alum, is 47 … TIME’s Nancy Gibbs and Michael Scherer ... Joe Conason, editor in chief of National Memo ... Mark Isaacson, director of executive comms at the National Association of Manufacturers and an RNC alum ... Erika Lovley, senior comms. manager at the Financial Services Roundtable and a Politico alum ... Ed Payne, news desk editor for CNN Digital News ... Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.) ... Kate Conway, graphic design guru with the DCCC and formerly of American Bridge (h/ts James Owens and Chris Harris) ... Eleni Towns, policy analyst for Feeding America and a CAP alum ... Zach Pleat, team leader for research at Media Matters for America ... Google’s Adam Kovacevich … Dave Martinez ... Charles Aldinger ... Adam Falkoff, president of CapitalKeys and a QGA alum ...
... Jennifer Hing, comms. director for the House Appropriations Committee (h/t Doug Heye) … WSJ’s Kevin Helliker, who covers sports and fitness, is 57 ... Joelle Terry ... Mary Lynn Jones Rynkiewicz ... Tina Kelley ... Elliott Vilmain … Dan Carol … Michelle Goodman … Cory Mason … John Thompson … Chet Culver … Susan Torricelli … Laura Simolaris ... Erik Smulson is 49 ... Sarah Tornero ... Wes Caudell is 36 ... Houston Ruck, creative director at Growth Energy and a U.S. News alum … Amy Mitchell ... rhythm-and-blues singer Alicia Keys is 35 ... Calum Hood (5 Seconds to Summer) is 20 (h/ts AP)
** A message from Walmart: 1.2 million Associates to Receive a Raise: Next month, we’re implementing one of the largest single-day, private-sector pay increases ever. We’re proud to be leading the industry in competitive pay and benefits by also introducing new short-term disability and simplified paid time off programs. When we invest in our associates, they invest in their work, and our customers notice the difference. Learn more. http://bit.ly/1lCn2eR **
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