Politico.com

DEBATE DAY! – SHELDON LEANING RUBIO -- ‘CANCER’ on Clinton’s candidacy -- BIDEN POSTPONES AGAIN – THE CANDIDATES, ranked...

2015-10-13

By Mike Allen (@mikeallen; <a href="http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9853b4ce77ebf041dd515112f0bc6c2b58454e7df441729c7ef033dc2961803f">mallen@politico.com</a>) and Daniel Lippman (@dlippman; <a href="http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=9853b4ce77ebf041551e443e9079c4c18e33322f2e6ca6b769c287e82efdc01b">dlippman@politico.com</a>)Good Tuesday morning, and happy First Dem Debate Day: 8:30 p.m. ET on CNN, from The Wynn, in Vegas. Anderson Cooper moderates, joined by Dana Bash, Don Lemon and CNN en Español’s Juan Carlos Lopez. SORRY: Only two and a half hours.PLAYBOOK’S 5 PLAYS: 1) Can Hillary handle incoming, from the moderators and the other candidates? Her trade flip-flip will be a juicy target for Anderson. And her rivals may question her authenticity for recent tacking to the left. One top Dem said: “You can’t out-Bernie Bernie. She should be herself and lean into her substantial assets and not try to be something she’s not, because she’s terrible at it.” But Matt Bennett of Third Way points out that Clinton has benefited in the past from men overplaying their hands in debates (“Likable enough,” Rick Lazio).One Clinton administration veteran said: “It’ll be like ‘The Walk’ [film about high-wire artist crossing between the Twin Towers], but without knowing the outcome. The star is very skilled and will probably be fine, but could fall to their death.”2) Rivals can be expected to attack Clinton for her Iraq vote. A friend of Clinton’s: “Will Hillary be able to use her experience and expertise on foreign policy to turn the attack to her advantage, by focusing on her strength as commander-in-chief? Will they be walking into a trap?”3) Can Bernie Sanders look plausible? He could win New Hampshire and is strong in Iowa, but new CNN polls show Clinton remains far ahead in Nevada and South Carolina.4) Can Martin O’Malley get back in the conversation? He’s the one most likely to try to CREATE a moment, to get a little post-debate oxygen.5) A little bird tells us Anderson Cooper plans to ask a question about Joe Biden. THAT should be fun.**SUBSCRIBE to Playbook by email: <a href="http://politi.co/1M75UbX">http://politi.co/1M75UbX</a>THE LINEUP – PODIUM ORDER, based on polls -- CNN’s Eugene Scott: “Clinton will be center stage ... On either side of Clinton ... are Bernie Sanders (to Clinton’s right) and Martin O’Malley (to her left). Jim Webb and Lincoln Chafee, the fourth- and fifth-placing candidates, bookend the stage.” <a href="http://cnn.it/1PqwD4g">http://cnn.it/1PqwD4g</a>THE FIVE – AP’s Connie Cass “Debate Field Guide”: “HILLARY: Establishment. Early favorite. Second-timer. ... BERNIE SANDERS: Liberal. Populist. Politically independent. ... MARTIN O'MALLEY: Policy wonk. Liberal. An alternative to Clinton. ... JIM WEBB: Former Republican. Combat veteran. Outsider appeal. ... LINCOLN CHAFE: Political pedigree. Party switcher. Unconventional.” <a href="http://bit.ly/1Mo4mpz">http://bit.ly/1Mo4mpz</a> COVERING THE COVERAGE: Politico’s Gabe Debenedetti is loose in Vegas with a GoPro, tweeting (@gdebenedetti) interviews and backstage video, and posting all day on Politico.com ... ABC alumnus ANN COMPTON, a former debate moderator, joins MSNBC’s special coverage. ... KATIE COURIC leads Yahoo’s “After Dark” post-debate coverage at 11 p.m. <a href="http://yhoo.it/1R8wMI1">http://yhoo.it/1R8wMI1</a> DID HE WAIT TOO LONG? Biden postpones – again! Some close to the V.P. had thought he’d make a decision during time with his family in Delaware this weekend, but he didn’t. Now, advisers are saying the real, real, real deadline is the end of the month, because of ballot-access requirements in November. But an ally warns: “Events could overtake him.”If Hillary does well at the debate and during her appearance before the House Benghazi committee on Oct. 22, “the groundswell will turn to groaning if he tries to get in then. But if she doesn’t do well [tonight] or Sanders does well, there’s an opening. ... The longer he waits to decide, the less credible his protestations that this has nothing to do with her. ... As time goes by, women supporters really may rise up against Biden and say: ‘Don’t ruin our best chance.’”--THE V.P.’s DAY, as released by the White House: “In the morning, the Vice President will attend the President’s Daily Briefing in the Oval Office. In the afternoon, the Vice President will attend meetings at the White House.”** Presented by BP. A message about our commitment to America: BP employs 17,000 people in the U.S. and supports another 170,000 jobs across all 50 states. Explore our Economic Impact Report to find out what we’re doing in your community: <a href="http://on.bp.com/2015EIR">on.bp.com/2015EIR</a> **STORY OF THE DAY – “A ‘Cancer’ on the Clinton Candidacy: Inside the seven-month war within her campaign over the email scandal that just wouldn’t go away,” by Glenn Thrush and Annie Karni: “Halfway through her long and humbling summer, Hillary Clinton ran into an old friend who wanted to know how she was bearing up under the pressure of near-daily revelations about the use of her private email server during her time in the State Department. Clinton was unmistakably unhappy. ‘I am having two problems,’ she bluntly told the supporter at a social event. ‘On the one hand, I feel like I’m rolling out a lot of substantive programs on issues that people care about. We’re getting one day’s news coverage. But there’s nothing larger knitting it together. We’re not breaking through. … And my team needs to get their act together on the email response.’ ... “From the start, the email controversy—and her campaign’s handling of it—has been an exercise in exasperation ... The wiry and wily John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign chairman, thought right away that she needed to dump everything out in public as quickly as possible to avoid the deadly drip-drip-drip. ‘We need to throw the facts to the dogs, and let ’em chew on it,’ Podesta told the candidate. But Clinton’s answer—and that of her lawyer David Kendall and her former State Department chief of staff Cheryl Mills—was a ‘no’ when Podesta and other advisers asked for some details. ...“She’d repeatedly tell her staff ‘I have done nothing wrong’ and maintained she was simply following the example set by George W. Bush’s first secretary of state, Colin Powell ... Then there was Bill Clinton. The former president, despite a low-key public role, was in fact already occupying an expansive strategic role in the campaign that had been denied him in 2008 ... and he was offering what seemed to be contradictory advice: He wanted the pushback effort to be much more aggressive but also advised his wife to ignore the calls for candor. ‘No matter how much you give them, it won’t be enough,’ he lectured an ally when the story first came out ... ‘Just shut it down. … Run your campaign and move on.’” <a href="http://politi.co/1GFuk62">http://politi.co/1GFuk62</a> BREAKING – “Clinton server’s software had hacking risk,” by AP’s Jack Gillum and Stephen Braun: “The private email server running in Hillary Rodham Clinton’s home basement when she was secretary of state was connected to the Internet in ways that made it more vulnerable to hackers ... Clinton’s server, which handled her personal and State Department correspondence, appeared to allow users to connect openly over the Internet to control it remotely.” <a href="http://bit.ly/1VPSe62">http://bit.ly/1VPSe62</a> TWEET DU JOUR -- @KenVogel: “Top Hillary donors gather in SF to gripe about Biden’s ‘staged’ grieving on TV & to do tequila shots.” LINKS TO ... “What top Clinton donors really think: Behind the scenes with Hillary’s big-money elite,” by Annie Karni in S.F.: “[A]t a private dinner in San Francisco on Wednesday night, where megadonor Susie Tompkins Buell held court before a group of about 15 major party donors and Clinton loyalists at Sam’s Restaurant, an old-school seafood joint[,] ... many worried [Biden] will fracture the party. ... When [Bernie Sanders’] name surfaced, the group of stalwart Clintonites expressed confusion over how the 74-year-old pol has inspired enthusiasm among young voters, even young women. ‘Youth like anything different that feels rebellious,’ Buell said. ‘They’re naive.’” <a href="http://politi.co/1G2qf18">http://politi.co/1G2qf18</a> GAME CHANGE – “Sheldon Adelson warms to Marco Rubio: An endorsement could come as early as the end of this month, sources close to the casino magnate say,” by Alex Isenstadt: “Last week, during a campaign swing through Las Vegas, Rubio held a meeting in Adelson's offices at the Venetian Las Vegas ... Adelson, seated at the head of his conference table, heaped praise on Rubio’s performance while he discussed the dynamics of the 2016 race. ... [The two were] joined by Rubio’s campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, and a pair of senior Adelson advisers, Rob Goldstein and Patrick Dumont.“Those close to Adelson — who spent more than $100 million on Republican candidates and causes during the 2012 campaign and has been aggressively courted by most would-be Republican nominees — stressed that the 82-year-old gambling magnate had made no final decision ... but said that momentum had strongly shifted to the Florida senator. A formal endorsement, they said, could come as soon as the end of the month — and with it, the potential for a multimillion dollar contribution.” <a href="http://politi.co/1MvfhCo">http://politi.co/1MvfhCo</a>--PLAYBOOK BACKSTORY: We’re told that what sealed the deal with Adelson, a passionate advocate for Israel, was Rubio’s promise to reorder U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East – concrete actions, not just policy talk. Contributions will be hard and soft money. Adelson plans a statement of support that Team Rubio hopes will create momentum with other sidelined/Walker donors. To date, the only nationally connected fundraiser backing Rubio was Wayne Berman. That is about to change. SNEAK PEEK: At 10 a.m., Jeb rolls out his Obamacare repeal plan at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. From his prepared remarks: “It’s quite a legacy, and when you consider the wreckage, it makes you wonder one thing: How can anyone defend it? Hillary Clinton ... and the other Democrats are going to have a debate tonight, but don’t expect to hear much dispute over healthcare. Hillarycare vs. Berniecare will be a debate without a difference. ... [W]hen I become president, I will work immediately to repeal and replace Obamacare.” 2-page PDF, “The Conservative Plan for 21st Century Health” <a href="http://bit.ly/1LGqYB8">http://bit.ly/1LGqYB8</a> AIR WAR -- “Pro-Kasich super PAC spending $6.5 million on TV ads through New Hampshire primary,” by WMUR’s John DiStaso: “A New Day for America doubled its buy through the end of October, spending $1.5 million for the month alone. ... [T]he super PAC has extended that buy through the primary, which is expected to be held on Feb. 9, by spending an additional $5 million. That will bring its total for Oct. 1 through the primary to $6.5 million.” <a href="http://bit.ly/1VP2von">http://bit.ly/1VP2von</a> AMERICA RISING’s new debate preview video, “Likeable Enough”: “a lighthearted look at some of Clinton’s worst past debate moments from 2008, including when she asked then-Senator Obama ‘if he needs another pillow’ ... The video will be backed by an ad buy on Facebook, using a new feature that allows advertisers to geotarget specific venues... [W]e’re targeting the Wynn in Vegas, and a 1 mile radius surrounding it the casino/hotel starting ... [and] will target Democrats.” <a href="http://bit.ly/1LrvqrC">http://bit.ly/1LrvqrC</a> FIRST LOOK – RNC’s Sean Spicer, “Dem Debate: On The Ropes, Clinton Has No Choice But To Deliver A Strong Performance”: <a href="http://bit.ly/1PqoeOj" target="_blank">http://bit.ly/1PqoeOj</a>EXCLUSIVE: CHRIS KOFINIS gives Playbookers this readout from a pre-debate focus group in Des Moines of 30 undecided likely caucus voters, conducted last night by his firm, Park Street Strategies (no candidate or campaign paid): “Sanders may have a ceiling when it comes to support because of questions about electability or whether he is a Democrat or independent, but his message does not. He can be a bigger threat here if he pivots right and addresses this concern. ... HRC: The only thing holding back her candidacy is a lack of excitement about her candidacy. They love her experience, they know she’s ready, but they don’t feel that personal emotional connection.“When she speaks, they don’t know if she’s talking to them, versus at them. ... The [pulled] Draft Biden TV spot had multiple people crying. This emotion, his personal story, will be enough to make him a real threat. Coming in late will not matter, if he does this right. But he can’t run as Obama third term -- he needs to define his unique vision. ... O’Malley is a candidate born 10 years too late. He looks like a president they may have wanted, but not today. ... The winning language -- key phrases: ‘We need real change that puts hard-working families first.’ ‘The strength of this nation is measured by our people, not out weapons.’ ... “Bio ads do not work: This election is about policy, vision and passion. ... [M]ajority thought Sanders would do better in the debate than HRC, 17 to 11.”SOCIAL 2016 – “[T]he number of unique people on Facebook in the U.S. engaging in the conversation about each of the candidates,” Sept. 10 through Oct. 10, via Facebook Policy Communications: 1) Trump 18.4 million ... 2) Clinton 8.6 million ... 3) Carson 7.2 million ... 4) Sanders 5.9 million ... 5) Fiorina 4 million ... 6) Bush 2.9 million ... 7) Cruz 2.8 million ... 8) Huckabee 2.4 million ... 9) Rubio 1.6 million ... 10) Rand Paul 1.5 million ... 11) Christie 1 million ... 12) Jindal 774,000 ... 13) Kasich 606,000 ... 14) Lindsey Graham 425,000 ... 15) Santorum 421,000 ... 16) O’Malley 156,000 ... 17) Pataki 128,000 ... 18) Larry Lessig 49,000 ... 19) Webb 34,000 ... 20) Gilmore 25,000.“[F]ive most talked about political topics on Facebook in the U.S.,” Sept. 10 through Oct. 10: 1. Religion ... 2. Guns ... 3. The economy ... 4. ... Homeland security and terrorism ... 5. Racial issues.WORTH THE CLICK – N.Y. Times A1, “Nudes Are Old News at Playboy,” by Ravi Somaiya: “As part of a redesign that will be unveiled next March, the print edition of Playboy will still feature women in provocative poses. But they will no longer be fully nude. ... Playboy’s circulation has dropped from 5.6 million in 1975 to about 800,000 now ... ‘The difference between us and Vice,’ [Playboy CEO Scott Flanders] said, ‘is that we’re going after the guy with a job.’ ... “The magazine will feature visual artists, with their work dotted through the pages, in part because research revealed that younger people are drawn to art.” As Dan Goldberg would say: Now we know! <a href="http://nyti.ms/1LKXCYy">http://nyti.ms/1LKXCYy</a>--NYT Quotation of the Day – Cory Jones, a top editor at Playboy, on the magazine’s decision to dispense with nudity, for cultural and business reasons: “Don’t get me wrong, 12-year-old me is very disappointed in current me. But it’s the right thing to do.”VALLEY TALK – “Twitter Suspends Deadspin, SBNation Accounts for Violating Copyrights,” by Re/code’s Noah Kulwin: “Twitter temporarily suspended the main account run by Gawker Media’s Deadspin sports site, which had been sharing GIF and video highlights of NFL games. Over the weekend, Twitter also suspended an account, @SBNationGIF, run by Vox Media-owned SB Nation* for posting GIFs of college football highlights. ... *SB Nation is owned by Vox Media, which also owns Re/code.” <a href="http://on.recode.net/1hBQTCi">http://on.recode.net/1hBQTCi</a>THE CHEW – “California to big-league ballplayers: Stop chewing tobacco,” by AP’s John Rogers in L.A.: “With Gov. Jerry Brown signing a bill ... banning the use of smokeless tobacco in all California ballparks, a practice dating to the days of Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb now seems headed toward the sport’s endangered species list. ... California ... is home to five of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams, and team owners themselves have been pressing for a ban for years. Last May they got one in San Francisco, home of the reigning World Series champion Giants. In August they got another in Boston, site of fabled Fenway Park.” <a href="http://abcn.ws/1ZxU1RI">http://abcn.ws/1ZxU1RI</a> MEDIAWATCH – NYT “Offers Free Digital Day Passes for Newsstand Customers” – Release off embargo at 5 a.m.: Starting today, “newsstand copies of The New York Times will include a promotional code good for one day of ... access to NYTimes.com and NYTimes mobile apps. ... Customers purchase a copy ... from any of the 48,000 retailers nationwide ... Inside [is] a keyword to [text] to a mobile shortcode ... The Times responds ... with a link to activate ... digital access ... Each ... code is good for unlimited digital access until 11:59 p.m. ET.”WEEKEND WEDDING: John Parkinson and Sally Rey, on Saturday at the Fairmont in D.C. John is an ABC News White House reporter; Sally is a program analyst at USAID. SPOTTED: Best Man Scott Parkinson, Cortlynn Parkinson, ABC’s Jon D. Garcia, Hank Disselkamp, Chad Murray, Kirit Radia, Doug Vollmayer, Robyn Weil, Robin Gradison, Avery Miller, Serena Marshall, Daniel Steinberger; CNN’s Ben Krolowitz (groomsman), Jeff Zeleny, Polson Kanneth; iHeart Media’s Chris Berry. The bride and groom are spending their honeymoon in Turkey and Italy. Pic <a href="http://bit.ly/1VP9Sqo">http://bit.ly/1VP9Sqo</a> WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Jenn Walters, who works in the House Periodical Press Gallery, has welcomed a boy, Zephyr “Zeph” Alexander Szermer, born 3:28 p.m. yesterday. “7 lbs, 14 oz. 20” long. Doing great! No complications.” Baby pic <a href="http://bit.ly/1LhNAsu" target="_blank">http://bit.ly/1LhNAsu</a>-- Reuters’ Jeff Mason’s twin brother Brian Mason, a senior deputy district attorney in Adams County (greater Denver area), and his wife, Fernanda Nieto, a classical pianist, welcomed twin boys into the world yesterday, Mateo Nieto Mason and Tiago Nieto Mason. “Mateo weighed in at four pounds four ounces, and Tiago weighed in at four pounds eight ounces. Parents, big sister Luciana, and Uncle Jeff are overjoyed.”BIRTHDAYS: Mike Barnicle is 62: Cubs-Cardinals @ 4, Dodgers-Mets@ 8 -- two great gifts (hat tip: Anne) … Ari Fleischer, the pride of Pound Ridge, N.Y., is 55 (h/t Rebecca) ... Billy Bush is 44 (h/t Taylor S. Gross) ... Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) is 57 ... Glover Park Group’s Nedra Pickler, the pride of Flint, Mich., and an AP alum … Michael Tomasky is 55 … RNC’s Gerrit Lansing, the pride of Lake Forrest, Ill., is 32 … Cathy Rubin … Josh Etter is 34 (h/t JSD) … WashPost’s Alice Crites … Christopher Colford, a speechwriter at the World Bank and former journalist … Emily Cadei, political correspondent at Newsweek, formerly of CQ Roll Call and Stanford grad (h/t Ashley (a Stanford classmate of Emily) & Ben Chang, filing from current stop in their cross-country road trip: Eunice, Louisiana) ... The Breeding Bros.: Nathaniel (International Republican Institute) and Nicholas (Burson-Marsteller), both Bush 43 alums ... ... David Willkie, a Lugar alum, an Indiana politico, and grandson of 1940 GOP presidential nominee Wendell Willkie (h/ts Erica Suares) ... Jack Krumholtz ... Gregg Rothschild is 50, both of Glover Park Group (h/t Emily Cabanatuan) ... Judy Pino's (Marketing Director and National Spokeswoman for The Libre Initiative (h/t Roberto Coquis) ... Politico’s Lily Muntzing and Carrie Adams … Steven Gutkin … Craig Smith ... Lily Schuurman … Lampkin Group’s Ashley Prime Gula ... Paul Williams ... Jeffrey Ward Kimbell … GOP consultant and strategist Chris Jankowski, an RSLC alum … ... Fran Person, former body guy to VP Biden, is 33 … Kris Anderson, a Romney, Huntsman and RNC alum … Christen Linke Young, principal deputy director at HHS’ Center for Consumer Information and Insurance Oversight and an OFA alum … Josh Friedmann, a WH CEQ alum now a student at Harvard Law … National Journal’s Daryl Muller, a Politico alum … NYT’s Craig Smith ... Andrew Hosea, now a law student at the University of Chicago and a Feinstein alum, former all-star student of Dan Schnur at USC, and a future senator from Nevada … ... OnMessage’s Joanna Burgos, an NRCC alum ... Carl Wiederaenders … Erin O’Neill (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Paul Williams … Climate Central writer Michael Lemonick ... Azam Baig ... Gospel singer Shirley Caesar is 78 ... Paul Simon is 74 ... Sammy Hagar is 68 (h/t Chris Hager, Russ Shearer) ... Marie Osmond is 56 ... NBA coach Doc Rivers is 54 ... College and Pro Football Hall of Famer Jerry Rice is 53 ... Matt Walsh (“Veep”) is 51 (h/t Tammy Haddad) ... Olympic silver-medal figure skater Nancy Kerrigan is 46 ... Sacha Baron Cohen is 44 ... Ashanti is 35 ... Olympic gold medal swimmer Ian Thorpe is 33 (h/ts AP)** Presented by BP. A message about our commitment to America: BP invests more in the U.S. than in any other country. And we reinvest every dollar we earn here right back into the American economy. Take 30 seconds to see that investment at work: <a href="http://on.bp.com/2015EIRvideo">on.bp.com/2015EIRvideo</a> **SUBSCRIBE to the Playbook family: POLITICO Playbook: <a href="http://politi.co/1phAeAC">http://politi.co/1phAeAC</a> … New York Playbook: <a href="http://politi.co/1ON8bqW">http://politi.co/1ON8bqW</a> ... Florida Playbook: <a href="http://politi.co/1JDm23W">http://politi.co/1JDm23W</a> ... New Jersey Playbook: <a href="http://politi.co/1HLKltF">http://politi.co/1HLKltF</a> ... Massachusetts Playbook: <a href="http://politi.co/1Nhtq5v">http://politi.co/1Nhtq5v</a> ... Illinois Playbook: <a href="http://politi.co/1N7u5sb">http://politi.co/1N7u5sb</a> ... California Playbook: <a href="http://politi.co/1N8zdJU">http://politi.co/1N8zdJU</a> and our friends at POLITICO Brussels Playbook: <a href="http://bit.ly/1Emvt6C">http://bit.ly/1Emvt6C</a>