Donald Trump has some unflattering opinions about American cities. The situation, he assured a crowd in coal-country Pennsylvania last week, is “worse than some of the war zones you’re talking about. There is no education, no jobs, no safety. There is no safety.” And, he intoned, “It’s getting worse and worse and worse.” (In another speech, he likened cities to “hell.”) But Trump’s dystopian stump speech gets heavy pushback from at least one constituency: America’s mayors, who are celebrating a year of positive gains and clutching the stats to back them up. They’ve grown tired of hearing their cities described as toxic hellholes. Actually, they’ve grown tired of listening to Donald Trump, period.
That’s the message from a new Politico Magazine survey that asked urban executives to respond to new numbers from the Census Bureau that offer a rarity in politics: good news. In 2015, the year for which Census measured, median income ticked up, the poverty rate dipped, the gender pay gap narrowed and the uninsured rate shriveled—and the gains were especially amplified in cities, where median incomes grew a remarkable 7.3 percent. Economists chimed in that they hadn’t encountered such numbers since the late ‘90s. But instead of spiking the football, mayors described a schism between the upbeat mood in City Hall and the wary constituents they serve—who still navigate problems like the minimum wage and racial and income inequality. Citizen confidence dips in smaller cities, and sinks even lower in the presidential swing states. It has led some mayors to blame the election for souring their “Morning in America” moment—and they can’t wait for the campaign to be kaput.
The findings are part of Politico’s seventh quarterly national Mayors’ Survey, conducted from October 3-14 for the magazine’s “What Works” series on urban innovation. The anonymous survey heard from 60 mayors, representing major metro areas like Philadelphia and Los Angeles; coastal hotspots like Tampa, Seattle and San Francisco; Midwest mainstays like Cincinnati, Des Moines and Kansas City; and boomtowns of a hipper variety like Denver, San Antonio, Santa Fe and Asheville. Eighty-five percent of respondents were Democrats (as most mayors are), and 10 percent Republicans, covering regions and economies that offered a cross-section of urban issues.
In their year-end review, mayors wrote about their city’s prospects with an upbeat mood difficult to imagine a few years ago. “Employment is up here,” writes one ebullient mayor. Says Ed Lee of San Francisco: “When I took office [in 2011], unemployment was near 10 percent. All I heard was, ‘Mayor, help me get a job!’... By pairing economic growth with progressive values like minimum wage and affordable housing, our city is thriving.” Says another: “We’re making progress,” adding, “Whether it’s a matter of the economic cycle or not, we’re having great success getting new businesses into our community.” Writes Michael Hancock of Denver: “We’ve created over 60,000 jobs over the past five years, and lowered our unemployment rate from nearly double digits to 3.2 percent today.”
Mayors are largely convinced the big picture is improving, at least in their metro areas—75 percent feel more optimistic about the economy than six months ago. They also weighed in on the Census numbers, where median incomes rose nationally by 5.2 percent (7.3 percent in cities), and poverty fell by 3.5 million people—both the largest single-year gains in decades. The uninsured rate dropped, a trend that was concentrated among people of low income, and the share of food insecure households (a particularly stubborn post-recession metric) fell 1.3 percentage points, meaning about 1.6 million new households have better access to meals (and roughly 48,000 households with children).
Mayors in the survey confirmed they’ve caught at least a piece of that good news in their own city: Fifty-five percent say those numbers reflect “very closely” or “mostly” the life in their city (another 37 percent say “somewhat”). Asked to identify any of the Census figures they’ve witnessed up close, mayors pointed to the Census numbers for higher incomes: Just shy of 70 percent say their cities have grown richer. Thirty-seven percent cited the uninsured rate declining. And 20 percent said they’ve seen those gains concentrated among the poorest fifth of their population.
That Trump would try to vault city politics to the center of his rhetoric makes sense; the campaign’s existential appeal is one of economic loss, and three-fourths of the country’s gross domestic product is generated in its largest metro areas, according to Bruce Katz, a scholar with the Brookings Institution. But Trump’s pitch is built on jarring anachronisms: A world in which crime is rampant (it remains low), and all ethnic minorities live in some Dickensian locale called “the inner cities.” The nation’s poor can be found most in suburbs, not cities, and one analysis from the Federal Housing Administration indicates that home values in poorer city sectors have grown at the fastest rates in the nation.
But Trump’s views on the cities also don’t match up with the people who study urban policy for a living. Among some of these scholars, the Census numbers represent the culmination of new ideas about urban development that have been cultivated for decades, and the possibility of still more years of city-centered growth. “We’ve been working on urban revival and center city revival for decades,” says Bruce Katz, the Brookings scholar and co-author of The Metropolitan Revolution: How Cities and Metros Are Fixing Our Broken Politics and Fragile Economy. “The innovative economy is revaluing cities, repricing cities, because of the need for proximity, density and vitality.” A city’s economic growth, says Katz, hinges on its ability to attract anchor institutions (like military or research hubs) that can attract human capital and foreign direct investment. The big picture for the future of cities, he says, will be international: A report this year from Brookings argues the most successful urban growth will be in “global cities,” metro areas of any size that can define an economic identity on the world stage. But accomplishing that task will fall squarely on the mayors. “The federal government is checked out, and states are mostly hostile,” says Katz. “At the end of the day, the burden is on cities.”
Mayors don’t need the reminder. Asked who should be given credit for the uptick, mayors gave universally low marks to Congress, and described Obama as getting too little credit for his contributions. Most pointed to City Hall for at least some credit, and mayors clamored to tell someone—anyone—about the creative initiatives of the past several years they believed helped drive the Census data.
More than 70 percent cited downtown rehabilitation efforts for playing a role: Philadelphia’s Jim Kenney highlighted a renewed development on commercial corridors, Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings flagged his GrowSouth plan, connecting investment capital to undeveloped land, and Mark Stodola of Little Rock pointed to a funds-matching program that has brought $100 million to a new “Creative Corridor.” Sixty-eight percent of mayors cited the general economic cycle (“Thanks Obama!”), and 47 percent touted city incentives for new businesses. Twenty-three percent cited Obamacare.
In highlighting their own initiatives, the mayors betrayed an interesting split: Between incentives and investments for entrepreneurs and small firms, and more progressive-minded initiatives and wealth transfers, like minimum wage and affordable housing. Mayor Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans pointed to a “living wage” initiative, requiring contractors to pay employees a minimum of $10.55. San Francisco’s Ed Lee claimed credit for a minimum wage increase and a new affordable housing project slated to construct 30,000 new units by 2020. And Seattle’s Ed Murray highlighted his city’s graduated $15 minimum wage, planned to reach full impact next year, and a goal to build 50,000 housing units. Another contingent of mayors prioritized a pro-business climate: Santa Fe Mayor Javier Gonzales described a $1-million a year investment in city startups, which he links to the Census ranking Santa Fe high in the country for employment at new firms. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti pointed to record development from streamlined land-use permitting and $47 billion in infrastructure investments. Cincinnati’s John Cranley highlighted his HandUp initiative, connecting people of low-income households to job readiness programs.
But the Census numbers weren’t entirely rosy: The report includes a few prominent “what ifs.” Median incomes rose from job growth, not wage growth, meaning some people are still working for less. And though poverty rates fell the furthest for African-American and Hispanic households, the gain in income for those families was smaller than white families. Wrote one mayor: “While the median income is rising, this may reflect improvements at higher income strata, rather than city overall or trends in lower income neighborhoods.” “Housing costs have increased,” wrote one mayor, while another added, “The percentage of children living in poverty grew.”
And no matter how good the numbers are, constituents aren’t yet feeling the love, say a crop of worried mayors; Trump might be grossly exaggerating, yet not completely off the mark. While most mayors (55 percent) said the Census data is reflective of their city, they candidly estimate their constituents’ confidence is smaller (41 percent). The number declines as the cities go down the list in size: Thirty-five percent of constituents are confident in Mountain West and Midwest cities, and 29 percent in the presidential swing states such as Florida, Ohio and North Carolina. Conversely, mayors of the Top 30 cities reported the highest constituent confidence of all categories, at 50 percent. (Many of these are big enough to be counted among Brookings’ “Global Cities.”)
The smaller the city, the tougher the struggle, mayors seemed to say. The answers might be found in the contrarian notes Politico received from smaller cities. Wrote the mayor of one New England city: “Middle cities need help. Outside of our capital cities, there are smaller cities that have borne the brunt of the recession and have not reaped the rewards,” he wrote. Says Brookings’ Katz: “The biggest structural challenge right now is that cities are on their own,” adding, “[The Census] is not the end of the game, there’s no ‘victory’ here. There’s just a better platform to build on.”
Mayors took a swing at what may be damping the country’s spirits: Sixty percent of mayors said that “even good numbers can’t compensate for problems like class and racial strife,” figures that aren’t measured in the Census.
But a sizable number of mayors put their finger on a different culprit: The presidential election, which 53 percent of mayors said is responsible for the nation's generally crummy mood. Asked why 65 percent of Americans still believe the country is on the wrong track, one mayor wrote, “Just look our presidential candidates.” Another chimed in: “I never want to hear that Donald Trump will be considered for any role as a public servant ever again.”
Mayors consistently dinged the campaigns for swerving from substantive urban issues—a big miss, they say, given the relevance to the country’s overall economy. “An urban agenda hasn’t been discussed nearly enough,” writes Kansas City Mayor Sly James. Adds Cincinnati’s John Cranley, “Lots has been discussed about national policy, but not how to help our cities, which are the largest economic drivers in the U.S.” Topping the mayors’ wish list, by far, was infrastructure (“We truly have a national infrastructure crisis,” wrote New Orleans’ Landrieu), the subject of a previous Politico mayors’ survey this year. Mayors also expressed frustration at the candidates for dodging climate change, homelessness and income inequality. Others weren’t terribly picky: “Just about any policy specifics on anything,” writes Steve Hogan of Aurora, Colorado. Said Las Vegas’ Carolyn Goodman, simply: “ISSUES!!!”
Absent the candidates’ deep dive into policy binders, mayors are retching at the thought of this year’s campaign buzzwords. Politico asked them to rank the ones they’d prefer to never hear again. Clinton’s email servers topped the list (“Sick of the email crap,” wrote one mayor), followed close behind by any mention of the name Donald Trump. Inflammatory rhetoric came in third: “What I never, ever want to hear again is racist, sexist and xenophobic rhetoric from a candidate of a national political party,” wrote one mayor, adding, “It dangerously degrades our national dialogue and is an embarrassment to our international reputation.” Fourth place was reserved for sexual exploits that have dominated headlines over the past few weeks: (“Never want to hear candidate accused of groping or sexual abuse again.”)
Small wonder, then, that America’s mayors aren’t betting that 2017 will bring new help from the federal government. Asked what City Hall can do to keep up the momentum, no matter who is sitting in the West Wing, mayors tended toward the simple answer: Keep on doing what we’re doing. “Continuing to put in place policies that promote economic mobility for residents, help businesses grow and succeed, and support the building of affordable housing,” writes Denver’s Mayor Hancock. “The next President and Congress need to work with cities,” writes Landrieu of the lack of leadership. “We feel it. We’re the ones on the ground all of the time, yet we don’t have the tools needed to deliver.”
But, Katz suggested, that might provide an opportunity, marshaling the findings of the Global Cities report. Cities have a chance to shape their own destiny. “There’s no leadership in Washington and no leadership in the states. That’s the structural issue. But what we’re really witnessing is the resilience of the federal republic,” he says. “When the higher levels of government check out, we’re realizing there’s an enormous amount of energy and problem solving in the country. It’s just at the local level.”
“We’re seeing a sequence here, and these are some very early benefits. But in my view, we’re at the shallow end of the pool—this kind of dynamic is going to continue,” Katz adds of the city-centered Census growth. “When you take your survey in seven or 10 years, you’ll see it reflected.”
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PARTICIPATING MAYORS (60): Esther E. Manheimer, Asheville, NC; Steve Hogan, Aurora, CO; Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, Baltimore, MD; Denny Doyle, Beaverton, OR; Suzanne Jones, Boulder, CO; Jennifer Roberts, Charlotte, NC; Andy Berke, Chattanooga, TN; Mary Salas, Chula Vista, CA; John Cranley, Cincinnati, OH; Mike Rawlings, Dallas, TX; Nan Whaley, Dayton, OH; Michael B. Hancock, Denver, CO; T.M. Frank Cownie, Des Moines, IA; Kitty Piercy, Eugene, OR; Elizabeth B. Tisdahl, Evanston, IL; Lydia Mihalik, Findlay, OH; Acquanetta Warren, Fontana, CA; Betsy Price, Fort Worth, TX; Karen Freeman-Wilson, Gary, IN; Frank P. Petrone, Huntington, NY; Tony Yarber, Jackson, MS; Sly James, Kansas City, MO; Nina Jonas, Ketchum, ID; Mayor Madeline Rogero, Knoxville, TN; Carolyn Goodman, Las Vegas, NV; Mark Stodola, Little Rock, AR; Robert Garcia, Long Beach, CA; Eric Garcetti, Los Angeles, CA; Paul Soglin, Madison, WI; Alan Arakawa, Maui County, HI; Betsy Hodges, Minneapolis, MN; Mitch Landrieu, New Orleans, LA; Noam Bramson, New Rochelle, NY; Paul Dyster, Niagara Falls, NY; Mick Cornett, Oklahoma City, OK; William Capote, Palm Bay, FL; Jim Kenney, Philadelphia, PA; Adrian Mapp, Plainfield, NJ; Jorge O. Elorza, Providence, RI; John Marchione, Redmond, WA; Ivy R. Taylor, San Antonio, TX; Edwin M. Lee, San Francisco, CA; Chin Ho Liao, San Gabriel, CA; Pauline Cutter, San Leandro, CA; Helene Schneider, Santa Barbara, CA; Javier Gonzales, Santa Fe, NM; John Sawyer, Santa Rosa, CA; Eddie DeLoach, Savannah, GA; Edward B. Murray, Seattle, WA; Mike Huether, Sioux Falls, SD; George Van Dusen, Skokie, IL; Pete Buttigieg, South Bend, IN; Rick Kriseman, St. Petersburg, FL; Stephanie A. Miner, Syracuse, NY; Marilyn Strickland, Tacoma, WA; Andrew Gillum, Tallahassee, FL; Bob Buckhorn, Tampa, FL; Paula Hicks-Hudson, Toledo, OH; Jeri Muoio, West Palm Beach, FL; Joseph M. Petty, Worcester, MA