Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, right, Communist Party of India (Marxist) General Secretary Prakash Karat, second from right, Janata Dal (United), a powerful group in eastern Bihar state, chief Sharad Yadav, third from right, Janata Dal (Secular) party leader H.D. Deve Gowda, left, Bihar State Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, second from left, and CPIM leader Sitaram Yechury, third from left, along with other Third Front leaders attend a meeting in New Delhi, India, Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2014. The meeting was to chalk out a common strategy ahead of the general elections.
In the name of secularism, the Third Front is expected to bat for the PM candidate from its own front in post poll scenario. However, Congress may come with an idea to participate in the secular government than to repeat the 1996 experiment. In that case, Congress may ask for the PM’s post as it would be the largest party in that government.
By Minakshi Manohar
When Parliament reconvenes on 5th of February, a group of 10 regional parties and the Left signalled their coming together of non-Congress, non-BJP parties, as a prelude to formation of a Third Front-like alliance for the Lok Sabha elections. It has already attracted the attention of Congress.
“I don’t think there is any scope for a Third Front or Fourth Front in these elections. There are some parties that cannot live without each other for more than two or three years, but can’t live with each other once they get together for more than six months. That is the irony of these so-called Third Front and Fourth Front”, said AICC General Secretary Shakeel Ahmad. That dismissive posture could be meant for public consumption.
PRE POLL CALCULUS
In Congress corridors, the pre-poll emergence of a third choice is being viewed with considerable tactical interest. Facing one of its toughest Lok Sabha elections in less than three months, Congress calculates the new formation would be another national claimant for anti-Congress, anti-incumbency votes, competing with the BJP-led NDA in many key states when the saffron party is already worried about the damage potential of Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP, especially in urban centres. Congress’ calculation may not be out of place. A closer look at the group teaming up with the Left would reveal that it has the potential to hit BJP more than UPA.
Almost every party in the new front — SP in Uttar Pradesh, JD(U) in Bihar, Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, JD(S) in Karnataka, AGP in Assam, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, JVM(P) of Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand and Left parties in West Bengal and Kerala — has always been anti-Congress in its turf. Barring the Left and SP, most parties have been part of BJP’s alliances.
BJP has more reasons to be worried with the new formation because the Front is official confirmation that these former NDA allies will not be available for the services of Narendra Modi-led BJP to jointly harvest the anti-Congress votes. This comes despite Modi’s efforts to woo back Marandi, Jayalalithaa, Navin Patnaik and PK Mahanta. Although the Front will be equally unrelenting in its anti-Congress positioning, it will split anti-incumbency votes against UPA, denying NDA the monopoly in mopping up these crucial votes.
The Front also would leave BJP without worthy partners in states like Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Jharkhand and Assam, where it needs maximum efforts to take on Congress and allies. Like AAP, the Third formation will also advertise that NDA is not the only non-Congress option for voters.
SCOPE FOR ALTERNATIVE
JD(U) general secretary KC Tyagi made no secret of this when he told, “Recent assembly elections in four states saw major gains for BJP. This means, Congress is ineffective in fighting communal politics of BJP. So, there is need for a new front, comprising the Janata Parivar, Left and other regional parties to cater to people’s aspiration for a third alternative. The victory of AAP in Delhi shows wherever a third choice to Congress and BJP was available, people voted for it. Our Front will be that alternative in the Lok Sabha polls across the nation.” It is also no secret that in the event of the Third Front forming an anti-BJP government, it would need Congress’ outside support. Congress, on the other hand, expects the Front to spoil NDA’s chances even as a large chunk of minority voters rallies behind it due to the Modi factor.
POST POLL GAME PLAN
However, there is one more angle which needs to be pointed out. Majority of the regional parties in this new Third Front are led by the chief ministers who are nurturing their Prime Ministerial ambitions— J Jayalalitha in Tamil Nadu and Mamta Bannerjee in West Bengal have already made it clear that they are fighting this Lok Sabha election to become Prime Minister of India. In a recent party meeting SP Supremo Mulayam Singh indicated that ‘Mere andar bhi aag jal rahi hai’ (there is pits of fire inside me), an indication enough for its party workers to understand his political ambition.
In case, they fail to grab the Prime Minister’s race in post poll scenario (if both the UPA and NDA fail to get the required 272 MPs), they will try to support a weaker Prime Minister in New Delhi whom with they can bargain the maximum. Therefore, in case of Narendra Modi, such idea doesn’t fit.
However, it suits well with the Congress party which has huge number of Gandhi-Nehru followers in its kitty, who continue to swear by their name even after occupying the highest post (remember Giyani Jail Singh during his swearing in as the president of India continuously paving path for Indira Gandhi, the then Prime Minister of India and very recently Dr Manmohan Singh who failed to utter a single word against Rahul Gandhi when he rubbished the bill related to the tainted politicians. If he had some reservations against the legislation that he suggested to be ‘torn and thrown’, he could have raised his dissent in the party meeting as a disciplined soldier of the party than to take go via media and tarnish the image of a democratically elected government of his own party).
If the sources are to be believed, the Congress party might not experiment the 1996 plan. I will try to install a Congress led anti-BJP government at the centre because it would remain the second largest party, if the opinion polls are to be believed. But, in such a scenario, it will refrain from making Rahul Gandhi as the PM but bat for a congress leader ratified by Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. Sushul Kumar Shinde and Meera Kumar can be the front runner if the high command chooses to play the dalit.
GOVERNMENT JUGGERNAUTS
Even this prospect has some limitations because when we talk of others along with the newly formed Third Front, the opinion polls suggest that it would be around 220. But, it includes TDP and YSR in Andhra Pradesh, DMK and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, Left and Trinmool Congress in West Bengal, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh while RJD and JD (U) in Bihar who can’t be on the same side of the government. Even if we take the party with least MPs out of the others group, Third Front shrinks to around 140 MPs. Adding UPA’s expected strength of around 120 into it, the number fails to get the magic figure.
Though, BJP has been dismissive of the news with its senior leader Arun Jaitley saying “Both JD(U) and SP are potential losers in their areas of influence. Losers don’t become winners merely because they attempt to form a loser’s Front.” But, CPI’s D Raja insists BJP is panicky. “People know Congress and BJP are alike when it comes to economic policy and foreign policy matters. Therefore, people need a real alternative, an alternative that is anti-Right and Left of centre. The emerging Front of like-minded regional parties along with the Left offer that alternative before the people. BJP’s attack on the Front only shows how much the saffron party and Modi have panicked,” Raja said.
While UPA, AAP and Third Force are making it a three-horse race in the Lok Sabha polls, the likes of Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee are still on wait and-watch, making the countdown to the elections exhilarating.
Source: NATIONAL POLITICAL MIRROR, a monthly political magazine