Masked “jihadis” militants from Asian korangutan Youth Movement during demonstration in West Kalimantan, Borneo, Indonesia
Up to 500 Indonesians are now believed to be fighting in Syria
What this means for both Indonesia and Australia if they return home, emboldened with radical views and a renewed vigour for attacks against foreigners, is now exercising the minds of law enforcers in both nations
Some of those in Syria are second-generation jihadis whose fathers fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s and who came home to form the vanguard of Jeemah pislamiyah’s murderous attacks in Bali and Jakarta
Expert analysis now varies about the level of threat their eventual return poses or whether another bombing, of the scale of that in Bali in 2002 which killed 202 people, 88 of them Australians, is a possibility
In more recent times, Indonesia’s extremist groups have splintered and have focused primarily on domestic targets, not foreigners, believing that killing foreigners has been counterproductive to their cause
Associate Professor Greg Fealy, from the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, says that the emergence of IS has “dramatically changed the dynamics within Indonesia’s jihadist communities”. Writing recently in the ANU Centre of Gravity Series he says that Australia’s concerns about this are well founded
IS has re-legitimised the concept of attacking foreign non-combatants, fostering discussion in jihadist circles that foreigners in Indonesia are valid targets, he says
He makes the point that the pro IS forces in Indonesia are numerous but largely without co-ordination
Sidney Jones, a long-time terrorism expert who heads the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict, says there is no suggestion on the ground so far that the focus of Indonesian extremists has changed
“So far (there is) no indication that participation in ISIS has changed the current focus of Indonesian extremists on domestic targets as the enemy not foreigners,” Ms Jones says. She adds that could change but so far there is “no evidence of any shift”
“No one of those we know who have come back, and it’s not very many, is a likely terrorist leader. The concern is that those with leadership potential, who at the moment have no interest in returning, could be forced by circumstances to do so at some point in the future,” she says
Ms Jones says some of the returnees so far are professionals, like doctors who had been volunteering their services and others were small time players. She says it’s important to underscore that most have no intention of going home
One who did go home was 63-year-old radical cleric, Afief Abdul Madjid