How badly have we screwed up our preseason predictions already?
Predictions are a terrible idea, particularly in baseball. Even John Sterling could tell you that. Nonetheless, we do it every single year anyway just because it's fun to see what happens.
2016 has brought a remarkable degree of surprises and it's only July 6th. Since the Yankees just recently passed the 81-game halfway mark of the season, here is a peak into the smoldering remains of our preseason predictions.
1) 2016 AL Standings
AL East
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Tanya
Yankees
Blue Jays
Orioles
Red Sox
Rays
Jason
Yankees
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Rays
Orioles
Andrew
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Rays
Orioles
Caitlin
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Rays
Greg
Yankees
Blue Jays
Rays
Orioles
Red Sox
Provenzano
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Yankees
Rays
Orioles
Ferenchick
Yankees
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Orioles
Rays
Kunj
Yankees
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Rays
Orioles
Harlan
Blue Jays
Yankees
Orioles
Red Sox
Rays
Nikhil
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Rays
Jim
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Rays
Jake
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Yankees
Rays
Orioles
Chris
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
Orioles
Tom
Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Rays
Orioles
Hecht
Blue Jays
Yankees
Red Sox
Rays
Orioles
CURRENT
Orioles
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Yankees
Rays
AL Central
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Tanya
Royals
Indians
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Jason
Royals
Tigers
Twins
Indians
White Sox
Andrew
Indians
Royals
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Caitlin
Royals
Tigers
White Sox
Indians
Twins
Greg
Royals
Twins
White Sox
Indians
Tigers
Provenzano
Indians
Royals
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Ferenchick
Royals
Tigers
Indians
Twins
White Sox
Kunj
Royals
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Indians
Harlan
Indians
Royals
White Sox
Tigers
Twins
Nikhil
Royals
Indians
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
Jim
Royals
Twins
Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Jake
Indians
White Sox
Royals
Tigers
Twins
Chris
Royals
Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Tom
Royals
Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Twins
Hecht
Royals
Indians
Tigers
Twins
White Sox
CURRENT
Indians
Tigers
Royals
White Sox
Twins
AL West
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Tanya
Astros
Rangers
Angels
Mariners
A's
Jason
Astros
Rangers
Angels
Mariners
A's
Andrew
Astros
Mariners
Angels
Rangers
A's
Caitlin
Astros
Rangers
Angels
Mariners
A's
Greg
Astros
Rangers
Angels
Mariners
A's
Provenzano
Rangers
Astros
Mariners
Angels
A's
Ferenchick
Astros
Rangers
Angels
A's
Mariners
Kunj
Astros
Angels
Rangers
Mariners
A's
Harlan
A's
Rangers
Astros
Mariners
Angels
Nikhil
Astros
Rangers
Angels
Mariners
A's
Jim
Astros
Angels
Rangers
Mariners
A's
Jake
Astros
Mariners
Rangers
Angels
A's
Chris
Rangers
Astros
Angels
Mariners
A's
Tom
Astros
Mariners
Rangers
Angels
A's
Hecht
Rangers
Astros
Mariners
Angels
A's
CURRENT
Rangers
Astros
Mariners
A's
Angels
To be fair, the AL East and AL Central are super muddled around the middle right now so a game here or a game there could change how this currently looks. But yeah... it's not pretty. Props to Provenzano for nailing almost half the spots though.
2) 2016 NL Standings
NL East
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Tanya
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Braves
Phillies
Jason
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
Andrew
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
Caitlin
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Braves
Phillies
Greg
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
Provenzano
Mets
Nationals
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Ferenchick
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Braves
Phillies
Kunj
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
Harlan
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
Nikhil
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Braves
Phillies
Jim
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
Jake
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Braves
Phillies
Chris
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
Tom
Mets
Nationals
Marlins
Braves
Phillies
Hecht
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Braves
Phillies
CURRENT
Nationals
Mets
Marlins
Phillies
Braves
NL Central
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Tanya
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
Jason
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Brewers
Reds
Andrew
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
Caitlin
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Brewers
Reds
Greg
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
Provenzano
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
Ferenchick
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
Kunj
Pirates
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
Harlan
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
Nikhil
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Jim
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Brewers
Reds
Jake
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Reds
Brewers
Chris
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Reds
Brewers
Tom
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Reds
Brewers
Hecht
Cubs
Pirates
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
CURRENT
Cubs
Cardinals
Pirates
Brewers
Reds
NL West
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
Tanya
Giants
D'backs
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Jason
Giants
D'backs
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Andrew
Giants
D'backs
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Caitlin
Dodgers
Giants
D'backs
Padres
Rockies
Greg
Giants
D'backs
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Provenzano
D'backs
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
Rockies
Ferenchick
Dodgers
Giants
D'backs
Padres
Rockies
Kunj
Dodgers
Giants
D'backs
Padres
Rockies
Harlan
Giants
D'backs
Dodgers
Rockies
Padres
Nikhil
D'backs
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Rockies
Jim
Giants
Dodgers
D'backs
Padres
Rockies
Jake
Dodgers
Giants
D'backs
Padres
Rockies
Chris
Dodgers
Giants
D'backs
Padres
Rockies
Tom
Dodgers
Giants
D'backs
Padres
Rockies
Hecht
Giants
Dodgers
D'backs
Padres
Rockies
CURRENT
Giants
Dodgers
Rockies
D'backs
Padres
We did generally better in the NL, which was at least a little more predictable--except for the Rockies not actually being a nightmare, of course. Odd.
3) A-Rod & Tex HR, Gardner & Ellsbury SB, Tanaka & Severino ERA, and Dellin K
NYY Misc.
A-Rod HR
Tex HR
Gardner SB
Ellsbury SB
Tanaka ERA
Severino ERA
Dellin K
Tanya
32
26
15
30
3.70
3.36
124
Jason
29
32
17
25
3.88
4.00
122
Andrew
22
36
22
28
3.69
3.93
114
Caitlin
30
27
18
26
3.47
3.63
117
Greg
37
35
39
41
3.21
2.56
135
Provenzano
24
32
22
31
3.11
3.69
130
Ferenchick
74
28
19
28
3.55
3.42
110
Kunj
31
37
16
27
2.98
3.69
121
Harlan
21
29
25
36
2.92
3.53
102
Nikhil
26
33
18
25
3.50
3.10
120
Jim
22
26
16
19
3.62
3.72
101
Jake
23
26
19
29
3.42
3.82
105
Chris
26
25
21
33
3.37
3.45
115
Tom
26
34
18
24
3.48
3.63
130
Hecht
27
31
17
29
3.80
3.30
108
PACE*
16
14
24
32
3.12
7.46
148
*or current
Don't worry, Ferenchick! Still holding out hope for A-Rod's 66-homer second half. Also, Luis Severino just makes me sad. Sigh.
4) Yankee leaders: AVG, HR, ERA, and WAR
NYY leaders
AVG
HR
ERA
WAR
Tanya
Jacoby Ellsbury
Alex Rodriguez
Luis Severino
Didi Gregorius
Jason
Didi Gregorius
Brian McCann
Nathan Eovaldi
Didi Gregorius
Andrew
Jacoby Ellsbury
Mark Teixeira
Nathan Eovaldi
Mark Teixeira
Caitlin
Starlin Castro
Alex Rodriguez
Michael Pineda
Brian McCann
Greg
Starlin Castro
Alex Rodriguez
Luis Severino
Didi Gregorius
Provenzano
Jacoby Ellsbury
Mark Teixeira
Masahiro Tanaka
Brian McCann
Ferenchick
Jacoby Ellsbury
Alex Rodriguez
Luis Severino
Brian McCann
Kunj
Starlin Castro
Mark Teixeira
Masahiro Tanaka
Brian McCann
Harlan
Starlin Castro
Mark Teixeira
Masahiro Tanaka
Jacoby Ellsbury
Nikhil
Starlin Castro
Mark Teixeira
Michael Pineda
Didi Gregorius
Jim
Didi Gregorius
Brian McCann
Michael Pineda
Michael Pineda
Jake
Starlin Castro
Brian McCann
Masahiro Tanaka
Masahiro Tanaka
Chris
Didi Gregorius
Brian McCann
Masahiro Tanaka
Didi Gregorius
Tom
Starlin Castro
Mark Teixeira
Nathan Eovaldi
Didi Gregorius
Hecht
Jacoby Ellsbury
Mark Teixeira
Nathan Eovaldi
Mark Teixeira
CURRENT
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Beltran
Masahiro Tanaka
Masahiro Tanaka
Well of course we all saw the Carlos Beltran Renaissance coming. Didn't you?
5) MLB leaders: AVG, HR, ERA, and WAR
MLB leaders
AVG
HR
ERA
WAR
Tanya
Miguel Cabrera
Bryce Harper
Zack Greinke
Bryce Harper
Jason
Mike Trout
Bryce Harper
Jake Arrieta
Bryce Harper
Andrew
Carlos Correa
Paul Goldschmidt
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Caitlin
Bryce Harper
Giancarlo Stanton
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
Greg
Bryce Harper
Giancarlo Stanton
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
Provenzano
Jose Altuve
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
Ferenchick
Miguel Cabrera
Alex Rodriguez
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Kunj
Miguel Cabrera
Giancarlo Stanton
Zack Greinke
Bryce Harper
Harlan
Paul Goldschmidt
Giancarlo Stanton
Jose Fernandez
Manny Machado
Nikhil
Miguel Cabrera
Nolan Arenado
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Jim
Miguel Cabrera
Giancarlo Stanton
Jake Arrieta
Mike Trout
Jake
Bryce Harper
Giancarlo Stanton
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Chris
Jose Altuve
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Tom
Miguel Cabrera
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
Hecht
Jose Altuve
Bryce Harper
Zack Greinke
Mike Trout
CURRENT
Jose Altuve
Kris Bryant
Clayton Kershaw
Mike Trout
The only real big surprise here is Bryant leading the majors in homers, and even he's not a stunner. Kershaw and Trout good, you say? Why, I never...
6) Most teams wins & losses, first manager fired
MLB Misc.
Most team wins
Most team losses
1st manager fired
Tanya
Cubs (104)
Reds (99)
Robin Ventura
Jason
Cubs (98)
Reds (100)
Bryan Price
Andrew
Nationals (96)
Braves (102)
Bryan Price
Caitlin
Cubs (100)
Phillies (98)
Brad Ausmus
Greg
Yankees (106)
Rockies (108)
Brad Ausmus
Provenzano
Mets (97)
Braves (101)
Bryan Price
Ferenchick
Yankees (107)
Phillies (100)
Bryan Price
Kunj
Pirates (99)
Braves (101)
Brad Ausmus
Harlan
Cubs (96)
Reds (104)
Bryan Price
Nikhil
Cubs (101)
Brewers (95)
Brad Ausmus
Jim
Giants (98)
Braves (99)
Pete Mackanin
Jake
Cubs (97)
Phillies (98)
Bryan Price
Chris
Cubs (100)
Brewers (103)
Bryan Price
Tom
Cubs (97)
Phillies (101)
Bryan Price
Hecht
Cubs (98)
Phillies (102)
Bryan Price
CURRENT
Rangers (101)
Braves (108)
Fredi Gonzalez
Okay, to be fair, the Cubs were easily the best team in baseball until the past week or so. Oh well. Bad move by us not seeing Fredi Gonzalez's departure coming.
7) MLB Awards
AL Awards
Rookie of the Year
Cy Young Award
MVP
Tanya
Byron Buxton
David Price
Mike Trout
Jason
Byron Buxton
Sonny Gray
Lorenzo Cain
Andrew
Jose Berrios
Chris Archer
Carlos Correa
Caitlin
Joey Gallo
Dallas Keuchel
Mike Trout
Greg
Byron Buxton
Dallas Keuchel
Mike Trout
Provenzano
Byron Buxton
Chris Sale
Mike Trout
Ferenchick
Byron Buxton
David Price
Mike Trout
Kunj
Byron Buxton
Chris Sale
Dellin Betances
Harlan
Blake Snell
Sonny Gray
Manny Machado
Nikhil
Lewis Brinson
David Price
Mike Trout
Jim
Gary Sanchez
Corey Kluber
Mike Trout
Jake
Jose Berrios
Chris Sale
Mike Trout
Chris
Jose Berrios
Dallas Keuchel
Mike Trout
Tom
Byron Buxton
Chris Sale
Carlos Correa
Hecht
Byron Buxton
Sonny Gray
Mike Trout
Consensus
Byron Buxton
Chris Sale
Mike Trout
NL Awards
Rookie of the Year
Cy Young Award
MVP
Tanya
Corey Seager
Zack Greinke
Bryce Harper
Jason
Corey Seager
Gerrit Cole
Paul Goldschmidt
Andrew
Corey Seager
Madison Bumgarner
Paul Goldschmidt
Caitlin
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
Greg
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
Provenzano
Corey Seager
Noah Syndergaard
Bryce Harper
Ferenchick
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
Kunj
Corey Seager
Matt Harvey
Andrew McCutchen
Harlan
Trevor Story
Noah Syndergaard
Paul Goldschmidt
Nikhil
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
Jim
Trevor Story
Jake Arrieta
Paul Goldschmidt
Jake
Corey Seager
Max Scherzer
Buster Posey
Chris
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Anthony Rizzo
Tom
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
Hecht
Corey Seager
Madison Bumgarner
Bryce Harper
Consensus
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Bryce Harper
There is no telling how the BBWAA would vote if they had to right now, so I didn't tabulate a "current" result for this, but it would be stunning if anyone beat out Seager for NL Rookie of the Year. So we got that at least! Don't look at our AL answers though. Be kind.
Don't worry though Kunj, Dellin is still definitely winning the MVP.
8. PLAYOFFS?!
Playoffs
AL Wild Card game
NL Wild Card game
ALCS
NLCS
World Series
WS Champ
Tanya
TOR vs. TEX
PIT vs. ARI
NYY vs. HOU
NYM vs. CHC
Yankees/Cubs
Yankees
Jason
TOR vs. TEX
PIT vs. STL
NYY vs. HOU
CHC vs. PIT
Astros/Pirates
Pirates
Andrew
KC vs. NYY
PIT vs. ARI
HOU vs. KC
WAS vs. SF
Astros/Nationals
Nationals
Caitlin
NYY vs. TEX
WAS vs. SF
NYY vs. KC
NYM vs. CHC
Yankees/Cubs
Cubs
Greg
TOR vs. MIN
PIT vs. ARI
NYY vs. HOU
NYM vs. CHC
Yankees/Cubs
Yankees
Provenzano
TOR vs. NYY
PIT vs. SF
NYY vs. BOS
NYM vs. PIT
Yankees/Pirates
Pirates
Ferenchick
TOR vs. BOS
PIT vs. SF
NYY vs. HOU
WAS vs. SF
Yankees/Giants
Yankees
Kunj
TOR vs. LAA
CHC vs. STL
NYY vs. KC
PIT vs. CHC
Yankees/Pirates
Pirates
Harlan
NYY vs. KC
PIT vs. ARI
TOR vs. CLE
PIT vs. SF
Indians/Giants
Giants
Nikhil
NYY vs. TEX
PIT vs. WAS
NYY vs. TOR
CHC vs. NYM
Yankees/Cubs
Yankees
Jim
NYY vs. MIN
LAD vs. STL
NYY vs. HOU
CHC vs. STL
Yankees/Cubs
Yankees
Jake
TOR vs. SEA
WAS vs. SF
CLE vs. BOS
LAD vs. CHC
Indians/Dodgers
Dodgers
Chris
BOS vs. CLE
NYM vs. SF
KC vs. TEX
CHC vs. SF
Royals/Cubs
Cubs
Tom
CLE vs. BOS
STL vs. WAS
HOU vs. KC
CHC vs. NYM
Astros/Cubs
Cubs
Hecht
NYY vs. CLE
NYM vs. PIT
KC vs. TEX
PIT vs. SF
Rangers/Giants
Giants
Consensus
TOR vs. TEX
PIT vs. STL
NYY vs. HOU
NYM vs. CHC
Yankees/Cubs
Yankees
We obviously can't project most of the last row yet, though if the playoffs began today, we can say that the two Wild Card matchups would be Blue Jays vs. Red Sox and Dodgers vs. Mets. The only person to have either of these projected is Matt Ferenchick, so huzzah for him!
Which have been the biggest surprises of 2016 so far for you?