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Call it the biggest clash of 2016 - Karan Johar's Ae Dil Hai Mushkil and Ajay Devgn's Shivaay are gearing up to battle it out at the box office, this Diwali. The excitement went up a notch when the news of Ajay Devgn accusing Karan Johar of paying INR 25 lakh to self-proclaimed actor-producer-critic Kamaal Rashid Khan to praise ADHM and banter Shivaay made headlines. And it soon turned into an ugly spat and became the hot debate of discussion for the gossip mongers and even created a rift between close friends Kajol and Karan.
That is not it! Then came the Uri Attacks and the entire focus from KRK scandal shifted to MNS, IMPPA and Cinema Owners Exhibitors Association of India (COEAI) banning the films starring Pakistani artists. Unfortunately, Karan's film ADHM came under the same radar as it stars Fawad Khan. Then, people started talking about if ADHM doesn't see the sunshine of the theatres, it might work in favour of Shivaay. But, recently, Minister of Home Affairs of India, Rajnath Singh has given a 100% assurance that there will be no violence and ADHM will run in the theatres smoothly. MNS and Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis also said that they will not oppose the release of ADHM. Talking about the clash, it has been in news for quite some time and with only 4 days left for release, Trade Experts have started the prediction game. We reached out to some of the leading trade experts, exhibitors and distributors and asked their opinions on the most controversial clash of the year!
But before that, let us give out some facts related to the cost of production of both the films:
On one hand, ADHM has to recover INR 35 crore and has to earn INR 90 crore at the box office which will amount to INR 115 crore to be a hit. On the other hand, Shivaay has to recover INR 45 crore and earn between INR 120 crore to INR 130 crore to be under the category of hit films.
After putting out the facts, let's have a look at what trade experts, exhibitors and distributors have to say:
Atul Mohan: "As of now, we all can figure out that Ae Dil Hai Mushkil is slightly to score more at the multiplexes of major metros and Shivaay will draw attention from the mass audiences from the middle part of India. I feel both the films will score well, but it will depend on how things will shape up after both the films release and all the political tension which is going on right now - MNS threatening the properties of the multiplexes which will screen ADHM. We don’t expect political parties to get into this, let the people decide. Going by the numbers, I think both the films are releasing in approximately same number of screens - between 2800 to 3000 screens. Down south, Shivaay, I believe has lesser number of screens as compared to ADHM. Looking at the current scenario, no one is able to judge what reaction will people give to ADHM. On one hand, the film stars Fawad Khan, but on the other hand, Karan is giving us Ranbir Kapoor, Aishwarya Rai Bachchan, Anushka Sharma and blockbuster music. Had the current scenario not come in between, I would have definitely gone for Ae Dil Hai Mushkil. The music of Shivaay hasn’t picked up that well as of ADHM. Secondly, you have only one big name in the film i.e. Ajay Devgn. On papers, yes you can say that Ae Dil Hai Mushkil has a definite edge over Shivaay. With everything resolved now, expect fireworks at the box office. ADHM should open around INR 17 crore and Shivaay around INR 12 crore."
Komal Nahata: "I can’t comment before watching both the films. Both are eagerly awaited, both are hot and they have succeeded in creating a lot of curiosity, so I believe both will do well. At this stage, without watching the films, this is all I can say."
Bharathi S Pradhan: "I think there will be room for both Karan Johar’s Ae Dil Hai Mushkil and Ajay Devgn’s Shivaay."
Amod Mehra: "According to me, ADHM, as per today despite being so called banned in single theatres, has got an upper edge on only one reason, as on Diwali, people want to be entertained and if it’s a romantic entertainer, it works better. Shivaay, no doubt, is looking really good but would target more on single screens than multiplexes. In Diwali time, people flock more on the multiplexes than single screens. It’s Eid time when single screens work more, but on Diwali, it’s the riches who come out to watch films with their families. On these points, I feel ADHM has an upper hand and the kind of controversies which have been created by trying to ban the films, curiosity has risen 200 times whereas Shivaay has failed to project the film’s actual story. Ultimately, it appears to be father-daughter subject, this kind of cinema we’ve seen in English a lot, but it’s something very novel for the Hindi cinema. I’m sure Shivaay will have an edge in single screens but in the multiplexes from where 70% of the revenue comes, ADHM will have an upper hand. ADHM might do INR 12 crore and Shivaay might earn INR 10 crore on Day 1, but then the product will talk."
Akshaye Rathi (Film exhibitor and Distributor): "ADHM, I believe the COP is about INR 70 crore with P&A is around INR 15 crore. I think INR 40 crore is Satelite Rights and INR 10 crore is I think music, so the major chunk has already been recovered. The point is basically both the films are extremely safe, if taken economics into consideration. As far as I see, I think both the films will recover in the first week of its release and after it, everything will be a bonus. Talking about numbers, first day is not a great day for business because it’s two days before Diwali. The release date is 28 and it’s Dhanteras day. On this day, if both the films do an average of approximately INR 15 crore per film, that will still be outstanding. The week before Diwali is known to be terrible for business and it’s the day after Diwali, the good business starts. Let’s say, even both the films do a combined business of INR 25 crore, then also it’ll be remarkable. I think both the films will be at par because 70% of theatrical business happens out of multiplexes and ADHM is more of a multiplex film out of the two whereas Shivaay will dominate in single screens. Shivaay will be a bigger film in terms of earning in the single screens out of the two. The number of singles screens is much higher than multiplexes, so it will balance out the equation. Both the films will earn almost the same amount. If Shivaay earns INR 10 crore on Day 1, then the single screens will contribute around INR 6 crore. In the case of ADHM, if it also earns INR 10 crore, around INR 7 crore will be from multiplexes. Both of them are expensive and also steadily economic, it will largely depend on the merit and the content of both the films. Going by the trailers, both look promising and hoping that the two will do well. I am pretty sure that both the films will earn over INR 100 crore. Talking about the controversy, it is a bit of a disadvantage for ADHM as people would want to go out with their families and if you see police forces around the theatre, you’ll be scared. But, I am sure Mr. Devendra Fadnavis (Maharashtra CM) and Rajnath Singh will assure hassle free release of ADHM. Rest, both the films will do well."
In a nutshell, it can be said that both Shivaay and Ae Dil Hai Mushkil will earn well at the box office. Going by the trade experts, ADHM will dominate more on multiplexes and Shivaay on single screens.
Who do you think will win the box office battle - ADHM or Shivaay? Let us know in the comments section below.
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