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Investment strategies 2015/16 – Looking back, looking forwards
By Dr. Rainer Zitelmann
Just last week a piece of news made a massive splash across the media: Measured by market capitalisation, the ten most valuable companies in the world all hail from the United States. And of the planet’s 100 most highly-valued listed corporations, 54 are US companies, 26 are European and 17 are Asian.
These numbers once again highlight the strength of the United States’ economy. Exactly one year ago, on January 5, 2015, I gave my commentary on the first page of the German Real Estate News the title, “Why I back the dollar.” Every word I wrote twelve months ago applies just as much today as it did then:
“I have used this platform to repeatedly recommend investments in U.S. real estate and, for some time now, I have been investing more than a third of my own money in dollar investments.
Admittedly, the Euro’s downward spiral and the dollar’s strong upward march cannot continue unbroken forever. Nevertheless, I still view the USA as having much stronger fundamentals and better long-term prospects than Europe:
The banking crisis has been much more rigorously dealt with in the USA.
Unlike Europe and its Euro, the USA doesn’t have the stigma of an artificial currency.
The USA has demographics on its side and is growing, while Europe shrinks.
The USA continues to be more innovative: All of the most successful inventions over the last decade have emerged from the USA, not from Germany: iPhone, Amazon, Google, etc. As far as patents are concerned, it’s as if the rest of the world has fallen asleep.”
That was my analysis exactly one year ago. I continue to remain sceptical as far as the Euro is concerned. The single currency’s underlying problems were in no way remedied during the past year. The EU has become a financial transfer union – Greece benefited from billions in assistance last year, more than any country in history has ever received. The Greek “economy,” however, is still like a bottomless pit, or a black hole from which there isn’t the slightest chance of escape. Europe has been debilitated by statism and a welfare-driven ideology – the direct consequences of which have led, for example, to the depressed state of the French economy. Given everything that happened in 2015, my belief that the Euro has become a stricken currency has only been strengthened. Over the last three years, the Euro has lost more than 17% of its value against the dollar.
And Germany? Germany is in rude health. Today. But Germany will weaken with time. Germany’s most valuable company, Bayer, only made it to 66th on the list mentioned above. VW actually suffered the indignity of dropping out of the Top 100.
And was what I wrote about demographics – i.e. that Europe’s population would shrink while the USA’s would grow – also right? In actual fact, I no longer believe that Germany’s population is going to decrease. But the major difference is the type of migration in America and in Germany:
Germany is not being made any stronger by chaotic and ideologically-driven refugee policies, on the contrary, the country will be weaker in the long-term. Yes, Germany needs migrants. But a comparison of immigration policies in the United States and Germany simply adds another plus to the US column and a minus to the German column.
Germany’s open borders and unrestricted “Willkommenskultur” led to net migration of at least 1.1 million people last year. An additional 4,000 people are still arriving every single day, a majority of whom have absolutely no professional qualifications. It remains to be seen whether many of the recent arrivals can ever be integrated into the German workforce.
And in the USA? For roughly ten years now, some 40% of new arrivals to the United States have been Asian. Asian-Americans are uniquely ambitious, as statistics bear out. One study has revealed that 49% of Americans of Asian origin over the age of twenty-five have a bachelor’s degree – the equivalent figure for white Americans is 31%, and for black Americans 18%. The median household income for Asian-Americans is $66,000, $12,000 more than for white households and double the figure for black households. Asian-Americans may only represent 4% of the country’s population, but they account for 25% of the students enrolled at America’s elite universities.
There is a clear difference between an unrestricted “Willkommenskultur,” steeped in ideology, on the one hand, and an immigration policy targeted to attract the world’s brightest and most ambitious migrants, on the other.
Of course, the massive influx of migrants to Germany does have some positive aspects, such as for real estate owners. Over the next few years there will be a huge increase in demand for affordable housing as a result of the current mass migration to Germany. This is yet another plus for German residential real estate.
On a more negative note, a further tightening of tenancy law is widely expected. Just as I had been predicting in the German Real Estate News for years – and I was actually the first to do so – the Mietpreisbremse rental price brake was introduced in 2015. That’s one prediction that I actually wish I hadn’t got right.
And in 2016 I expect that a “Rent Index Manipulation” act will be passed, by which rent indexes will in future be based on rental prices over the preceding ten years. This would represent a nail in the coffin of free market economic principles within the residential real estate sector, and a handover of effective control of rental prices to the state. I still intend to hold on to a majority of my property in Berlin, but 2015 was the first year in which I sold some of my property, investing half of the proceeds in a US real estate fund.
My enthusiastic backing of the dollar has proven itself to be right. From currency gains alone, I achieved a return of ten percent in 2015. And with my participation in a US fund I achieved a return of more than 12% in the first three quarters of the year (not including currency effects!)
For the price of gold denominated in Euros, I predicted nothing more than lateral movement. And that’s exactly what we got. The Euro-transacted gold price remained unchanged over the last twelve months. My recommendations for the coming year include keeping hold of gold as it remains an important hedge against the effects of any dramatic turmoil in the financial system.
Read also Rainer Zitelmanns Finance Blog.
d.i.i./IW Study: Demand for 430,000 New Apartments Per Year
As reported in the FAZ and DIE WELT on 16.12.2015, in a new study, the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW) calculates that around 430,000 new apartments are needed per year through to 2020 in order to meet demand for new housing in Germany. This figure is much higher than the target figure of 350,000 set by Barbara Hendricks, Federal Construction Minister. Measured against construction activity in 2014, this would represent an increase in apartment building of more than 75%. “These results make it clear that we can expect rents and prices to continue their upward movement for the next few years,” said Frank Wojtalewicz from d.i.i. Deutsche Invest Immobilien, who commissioned the IW study. “Apartments and development land are not only going to remain in short supply for the foreseeable future, they are also going to remain expensive,” continued Wojtalewicz. “This represents a huge challenge,” commented Michael Voigtländer from the IW. “After all, in major urban centres, construction activity has been struggling to keep up with demand for years now.” The main reason for this is the ongoing shortage of development land, although rising construction costs due to ever higher technical and environmental standards have also played a major role in limiting new-build activity. “We fully expect that market tensions in the residential sector will continue to increase, and that housing costs will carry on rising,” said Voigtländer.
From a low-point of 159,000 in the year 2009, the number of apartment completions climbed to 245,000 in 2014 and rose again to reach 260,000 units in 2015. Nevertheless, the completion figures still fell far short of demand for new housing. Over the last five years, the pent up, and as yet unsatisfied, demand for housing in major urban centres has fed through into rising rents and prices. The recent refugee crisis has meant that officials have had to go back to the drawing board as far as their assumptions on immigration are concerned, because their demographic calculations and forecasts all now need to be revised. The massive immigration increase in 2015 requires a wider reappraisal of demographic developments in Germany. The IW expects Germany’s population to grow from 82 million today to up to 85 million by 2020. The institute assumes that of the 600,000 refugees arriving per year, roughly 40% will be granted asylum. Voigtländer suggests that it makes sense to exploit the higher levels of vacant housing in Germany’s rural regions in order to get to grips with the shortage of housing in urban areas. “If the refugees could be distributed in a targeted manner, across regions with large numbers of vacant apartments, a number of problems could be headed off,” said Voigtländer. As possible destinations, he suggested towns and cities such as Salzgitter, Bremerhaven and Wuppertal, along with regions in Eastern Germany and along the Havel. If every refugee were successfully placed in a vacant apartment, the need for new apartment construction would be reduced to 104,000 units per year. The surplus demand for housing over the next few years is too large to be met by normal construction. “We need to be thinking about new housing concepts. We need to develop housing that is designed to be used for the next fifteen years, not the next fifty,” said Voigtländer. Discussions on housing solutions taking place right now include container housing, which are included in a number of current projects.
For tenants, along with anyone currently thinking of buying real estate, the study has little in the way of good news. According to Wojtalewicz, politicians have created a “very hostile environment for investors,” with initiatives such as the Mietpreisbremse rental brake. “The d.i.i. acquires and modernises housing complexes and works very closely with municipalities and tenants. As a result, gross rents for most tenants have been kept more-or-less stable,” said Wojtalewicz. “The proposals made by Justice Minister Maas, to strictly limit the proportion of modernisation costs that can be passed on to tenants will only serve to exacerbate market conditions. This is the wrong signal to be sending out at a time when more housing is so desperately needed and the population is growing so rapidly,” said Wojtalewicz.
Figures similar to those highlighted by the IW study have also been published by Harald Herrmann from the Federal Institute for Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Research (BBSR). He has said that between 350,000 and 400,000 apartments need to be built each year. “The construction industry is already extremely stretched, in particular those companies involved in renovation and modernisation,” said Herrmann. The fact that it takes so long for brownfield sites, vacant building plots and newly designated development land to be made available for new construction just adds to the challenges already being faced. Most current construction activity is focussed on building expensive apartments, with much less activity in the affordable housing category.
Momentum in the German housing market picked up again last year. According to a study compiled and published by DZ Bank, prices for residential real estate in Germany rose by 4.5% in 2015. This represents the highest rise in prices for 20 years. Substantial price rises were even seen in secondary cities and university towns. For 2016, DZ Bank expects further rises, of up to 5%. The bank identifies continued population growth, low-cost financing and pent-up demand from investors as the main drivers of future increases. Market tensions are at their most extreme in Germany’s largest cities, where surplus capacity has already been almost fully exploited. As the study observes, “On top of all this, refugees have now been arriving in large numbers, most of whom would prefer to be housed in large cities.”
Investors Keen on German Residential Real Estate
As reported by the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 07.01.2016, investments in German residential real estate grew strongly during 2015. At €22.5 billion, Savills reported a 68% increase over 2014’s total. A total of 319,000 residential units changed hands last year, 33% more than in the previous year. On an individual unit basis, investment was up from €55,900 to €70,300. 29% of the traded units were located in Germany’s Top 7 real estate centres. On the buyer side, national investors dominated, accounting for 90% of the transactions. On the seller side, it was foreign investors who were most active, especially North American investors (58% of sales). The most active investors were listed residential real estate companies, both as buyers (€15.2 billion) and sellers (€10.9 billion).
Berlin Needs Denser and Higher Buildings
The FAZ on 08.01.2016 reported that Berlin needs more converted loft-space and high-rises. According to Berlin’s Urban Development Senator, Andreas Geisel, it is only by building higher and increasing housing density that Berlin will be able to cope with its growing population. Although 44% of the city is made up of green and open spaces, these are not proving so easy to rezone as building land. The conversion of loft and attic space across the city would on its own create 50,000 new apartments. The construction of a new generation of high-rise apartment buildings is also necessary. These two measures could also be delivered without any reductions in housing and living quality. “Apartment Construction in Berlin: The most interesting projects” is the subject of a special Berlin Real Estate Roundtable event on January 27, 2016 at the Maritim proArte Hotel Berlin. Request your programme details via email today: info@immobilienrunde.de
Takeover Battle Vonovia/Deutsche Wohnen Enters Its Final Round
Articles in both the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG and the HANDELSBLATT on 08.01.2016 reported that Vonovia has now reached out directly to shareholders of Deutsche Wohnen. In an open letter to the targeted company’s shareholders, Rolf Buch of Vonovia, appealed for their approval for the takeover before embarking on a two-week roadshow to put Vonovia’s case to investors. Deutsche Wohnen’s shares are currently trading just below the price offered by Vonovia. Based on final trading figures from Thursday, the offer values each share at €24,55 in contrast to an actual price of €23,93. The acceptance period for Vonovia’s offer ends on 26.01.2016. So far, only 7.3% of Deutsche Wohnen shares have been tendered in acceptance of the offer. Vonovia has made its takeover offer subject to a minimum threshold of 50% plus one share. The takeover has been valued at €14 billion. Deutsche Wohnen has a market capitalisation of €8 billion.
The FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE SONNTAGSZEITUNG contained a profile of Rolf Buch, CEO of Vonovia AG, in its edition on 10.11.2016. Deutsche Annington suffered from a poor reputation. The company’s tenants staged regular protests. Nevertheless, Buch managed to turn the company around and transform its fortunes. “Before I arrived, nobody here was speaking about customers,” said Buch. Now he is planning the takeover of the second-largest company in the sector, Deutsche Wohnen, thereby creating a giant in the German residential real estate sector with more than 500,000 rental units. His opposite number at Deutsche Wohnen, CEO Michael Zahn, is doing everything he can to resist Vonovia’s advances. The takeover battle has now become the most bitter ever fought in Germany’s short stock market history. Buch needs to acquire approval from 50.1% of Deutsche Wohnen’s shareholders, but many remain unconvinced. So Buch is now embarking on a roadshow. Deutsche Wohnen’s shareholders have until 26.01.2016 to make their decision.
Mietpreisbremse Rental Price Brake Across Germany
The FAZ on 27.12.2015 contained an article that assessed the current status of the introduction of Mietpreisbremse rental price brakes across Germany. Rent increase limitations have so far been imposed in nine of Germany’s sixteen federal states. Brandenburg enacted the legislation in 31 districts on 01.01.2016. Authorities in Thuringia are currently negotiating the introduction of the Mietpreisbremse in their state.
Mietpreisbremse Only Partially Effective
The IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG wrote on 17.12.2015 that the Mietpreisbremse rental price brake has yet to demonstrate any substantial impact in the German capital. Admittedly, rents did initially fall back to an average of €8.50 per square metre, but they soon rose again to an average of €8.73 per square metre. In the districts of Kreuzberg and Friedrichshain, the rental brake does appear to be working as average rents for apartments in blocks constructed after German reunification are down by between 3.5% and 5%. However, the opposite is true in Neukölln, where median asking rents for renovated apartments are up by an average of 3.5%. “Apartment Construction in Berlin: The most interesting projects” is the subject of a special Berlin Real Estate Roundtable event on January 27, 2016 at the Maritim proArte Hotel Berlin. Request your programme details via email today: info@immobilienrunde.de
Brookfield Acquires Potsdamer Platz Quarter
As reported in the FAZ on 05.01.2016, the Canadian real estate investment company, Brookfield Property Partners, together with its joint venture partner, an Asian sovereign wealth fund, rumoured to be Korea’s KIC, has acquired the portfolio of properties at Berlin’s Potsdamer Platz. The portfolio comprises 17 buildings with a mix of office, retail, residential and leisure space, along with the Mandala Hotel. The buildings’ gross floor space totals 270,000 square metres. The tenants include 480 German and international companies, including Daimler, China’s ICBC bank and Air Berlin’s largest shareholder, Etihad Airways. The price has not been made public, but insiders have reported that it was around €1.3 billion. The portfolio does not include the iconic Sony Center and Deutsche Bahn tower.
Record Investment in Commercial Real Estate
The IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 17.12.2015 that demand for commercial real estate in Germany during 2015 was at an extremely high level and that this is set to be maintained into 2016. Demand is being stoked by ongoing low interest rates and stable consumer spending. “We are on the brink of beating 2007’s record figures,” commented Fabian Klein from CBRE. Whether 2015’s record investment can be beaten in 2016 is a point of contention. “As so many deals were brought forward into 2015, we are predicting a total of around €55 billion for commercial real estate in 2016,” said Klein. The main drivers of investment activity in the commercial real estate sector last year were foreign investors. 60% of the transactions in the commercial sector during 2015 involved foreign money. In general terms, real estate investments remain highly attractive, especially as, despite recent yield compression, returns still remain markedly ahead of returns from ten-year government bonds. For office real estate investments in Europe’s major cities, CBRE recently assessed the yield spread at between 200 and 400 basis points.
Retail Real Estate Back in Demand
DIE WELT reported on 06.01.2016 that €13 billion was invested in German retail real estate in the first three quarters of 2015. This figure, according to Collier, represents a 120% increase over the previous year. “Inner-city properties in prime locations in large cities such as Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Munich, Cologne and Stuttgart have become so expensive that yields have fallen below the 4% mark,” said Andreas Trumpp from Savills IM. For top centres and stores in the best locations, Trumpp does not see much of a threat from e-commerce as many consumers still want to be able to touch, feel and try items on.” Many online retailers are moving away from their traditional online only business models and opening physical stores on the country’s major high streets, observed Trumpp. In addition, manufacturers of high-value goods are increasingly looking to open flagship stores in order to present the full range of their products.
GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for Frankfurt
Frankfurt is located at the center of the Rhine-Main urban agglomeration. It is one of Europe’s most important banking and financial centers, especially as both the European Central Bank and Deutsche Bundesbank are headquartered here. Its stock exchange ranks second in Europe. Furthermore, Frankfurt hosts Germany’s most well-attended trade fair, compiling the nation’s highest sales figures for an event of this type. With the Goethe University and several colleges, including one with the country’s top program in banking and economics, Frankfurt’s research and educational resources are outstanding, and cover a wide range of fields of study. Along with the financial sector, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, telecommunications and logistics are all gaining substantial importance. These strongly favorable underlying conditions assure Frankfurt a continued high rank among Germany’s leading regional economies.
Feri rates Frankfurt as a business location “A”, which is unchanged compared to the 3rd quarter 2014. It translates into “high potential, low risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 19th in the comparison of European Metropolises.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Frankfurt “C”, which is unchanged compared to the 3rd quarter 2014. The city ranks 14th among office locations of European Metropolises. Feri awards the office top locations “C” and the side locations “C”
Frankfurt’s office market, comprising approximately 12,4 million sqm of office stock, ranks fourth largest in Germany, behind Berlin, Hamburg and Munich. Banks/financial service enterprises, and other business-related services are the main drivers of demand for office space. Historically, in comparison to other German office markets, office rents in Frankfurt have shown remarkably high volatility. Frankfurt City, Westend and the banking district are the most prominent office locations. As a location of the EZB and future location of the new European Banking Authority Frankfurt has further developed his meaning as a finance metropolis.
Frankfurt´s office space take-up totalled 291,400 sqm at the end of September 2015 (by JLL). Compared with the corresponding period in the previous year take-up is 7% above. The decline of vacant space on offices is ongoing. This results also from new lettings, demolition, conversion of office space into residential use and modernizations. The building completions for the years 2015/16 are below of the 10-year average. A low level of speculative building activity together with shrinkage of stock (inter alia due to conversions) are expected to support the vacancy rate to decrease further. Also the growth of office employment shows potential for rental increases in the years 2015 to 2019.
With an investment volume of 4.14 billion € totalized between January and September 2015 (Source: JLL) Frankfurt´s commercial property investment market ranks third behind Berlin and Munich. Thereby Frankfurt´s Investment volume counts 76 % higher than in the same period of the previous year. The limited availability of core properties with a high interest in real estate investments has led to a strong yield compression. The investment market in Frankfurt is meanwhile in the sixth year of a compression phase, which is already well advanced. Rents will become a major driver for future capital values in the Frankfurt office investment market in the years to come.
Historically, rents have had the strongest influence on price development in Frankfurt’s office market; the impact of rental yields is much weaker. Indeed the altered interest environment and uncertainty in the financial sector have led in recent years to the fact that real estate is in great demand as an asset class. This has led to yields pressure so that during the recent market cycle, the yield compression has dominated as price driver towards rents. The fair rental yield for office real estate in Frankfurt is, according to our estimation, at 5.2%. At present, we view the price to be above its fair value.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of European Metropolises regarding retail real estate Frankfurt placed 5th with a rating result of “A”, which is unchanged compared to the 3rd quarter 2014. Feri awards the retail top locations “AA” and the side locations “C”.
Frankfurt is a supra-regional retail center. Its “Zeil” shopping street is among the most frequented in Germany. At prime locations, retail trade held up quite well even during the latest cyclical downswing. Thus, even amidst adverse general economic conditions, rent decreases for retail store space in Frankfurt’s top locations have been quite limited. The city is also launching initiatives, like the new opening of the shopping center “My Zeil”, aimed at improving the attractiveness of its central shopping district. Secondary retail locations have been hurt by competition from nearby peripheral shopping centers. Rents at top locations are projected to rise in the years ahead. Secondary locations will remain static. The “Skyline Plaza” built in 2013 with about 33.000 sqm sales area has further widen retail space.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Frankfurt placed 18th among European Metropolises with a rating result of “B”, unchanged compared to the 3rd quarter 2014.
Frankfurt’s residential rental market The city benefits from the reversal of the trend “back to the city” and therefore shows growing population since 2005. On its rental housing market, the most notable demand comes from singleperson and two-person households. Centrally located apartments are the type most particularly sought after. Supply for these apartments, as well as family households, is relatively short, which led to rising rents. Even though building activity has increased in Frankfurt the rising number of households have led to rising demand. Thus for both new and existing dwelling units rents are projected to rise consistently.
One of the decisive and comprehensive factors, that influence home ownership in Frankfurt, is the very low mortgage interest rate, as well as the “flight to tangible assets”. An important regional factor is the rising population. The supply of houses and apartments, offered for sale, is tight. This condition led to significantly rising purchasing prices. To increase space the city is making more building lots available in new residential areas on the outskirts of the city such as “Riedberg” and “Rebstock” but also in the “Europaviertel”. Because of the further increasing population demand is expected to increase continuously. This enables prices for both houses and condominiums to rise, even though new building activity is increasing.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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