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Vonovia joins the DAX
Stable Ratings for Listed Residential Real Estate Companies
Vonovia’s (formerly Deutsche Annington) entrance to the DAX was reported on by the FAZ, SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG, DIE WELT, HANDELSBLATT and the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 03.09.2015. Germany’s largest real estate company, owner of 370,000 apartments, will be known by the trading code VNA. The company, with headquarters in Bochum, will immediately adopt its new name on the stock market but will operate under its original name for its operative businesses until the end of the year. The new name, evoking associations with “modern living”, was developed following the merger with Deutsche Annington’s former competitor, Gagfah, in December 2014. Over the last 12 months, the market-leader’s share price has risen by 28%. A number of other housing companies have also added substantial value during the same period. For example, Deutsche Wohnen, owner and manager of 140,000 residential units, has added 36% to its market value. LEG Immobilien is up by 18% and TAG is worth 16% more.
As reported in BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 04.09.2015, the healthy financial position of listed real estate companies in Germany is set to continue for the next 12 to 18 months on the back of rising rents and low interest rates. This is the conclusion drawn by the recent “REITS and Commercial property – Germany”, published by Moody’s. As a result of refinancing measures, Deutsche Wohnen, LEG Immobilien and Grand City Properties have until 2019 before they have to repay and major loans. Vonovia is alone in needing to arrange substantial refinancing. The companies’ relatively conservative financing strategies have meant that they have debts amounting to less than 50% of combined property values. This has enabled them to secure low-cost loans, an important factor in Vonovia and Deutsche Wohnen’s planned expansions.
According to a survey carried out by Dr. ZitelmannPB. GmbH among German research companies, a clear majority of stock market analysts welcome Vonovia SE’s promotion to the DAX. DZ Bank ‘s Karsten Oblinger reacted positively to the announcement: “Although this single step is part of a long-term development, it certainly sends out a positive signal to the entire market. Across the board, real estate stocks have justifiably enjoyed an extended period of growth.” Wolfgang Kubatzki from Feri EuroRating Services AG was equally pleased at the news that Vonovia is joining the stock market’s premier division: “It is remarkable that this is the first time that a real estate company meets the criteria for elevation to the DAX.” Listed real estate companies are already represented in Germany’s MDAX and have now made it onto the DAX. From an international perspective, it seems as if Germany is finally catching up with other countries. Whereas real estate company stocks are already listed on the top indices in Hong Kong, Japan and Great Britain, and even account for 20% of the listed stocks on Austria’s ATX exchange, they play a very minor role in other markets.
Real estate stocks on major exchanges
Country
Index
listed companies
Real estate stocks
*The broader S&P 100 includes one real estate stock. Table: Research Dr. ZitelmannPB. GmbH
Frankreich
CAC
40
1
Großbritannien
FTSE
100
4
Italien
MIB
30
0
Japan
Nikkei
225
6
Österreich
ATX
20
4
Russland
RTS
40
0
Schweiz
SMI
20
0
Spanien
IBEX
35
0
USA*
DJII
30
0
Hongkong
Hang Seng
45
7
“WE ARE DAX!”
By Dr. Rainer Zitelmann
“We”, that is the German real estate industry, have made it onto the DAX. Vonovia (formerly Deutsche Annington) is Germany’s largest landlord, with more than 350,000 apartments, and its promotion to the DAX sends out a massive signal to the industry as a whole. The real estate industry is one of Germany’s most important economic sectors – but hasn’t previously been given the recognition it deserves. The general public’s view of real estate professionals has largely been shaped by the way the general media presents high street estate and letting agents, and the fact that these are the only real estate professionals most people ever come into regular contact with.
Vonovia now has an immense responsibility towards the wider real estate sector as trading in its stocks will have a major influence on the way Germany’s real estate industry is perceived. And, as all eyes will now be trained on its stock price, the company is more vulnerable to public attack than ever before: lobbyists for tenants and shareholders know very well that the company is under public scrutiny and open to criticism.
As an investment vehicle, a listing on the DAX is a breakthrough for real estate stocks in Germany. 14 years ago, in September 2001 – initially in conjunction with IVG, Deutscher Euroshop, BauVerein zu Hamburg and Deutscher Wohnen – I started the “Real Estate Stock Initiative” in order to promote acceptance of this idea in Germany. Many years ago I predicted that real estate stocks would gain massively in importance in Germany. And now it has happened. Even in 2004, when the combined market capitalisation of all of Germany’s real estate stocks was just €6.5 billion (Vonovia’s stocks are today worth €13 billion on their own!), I stubbornly wrote in my book, “Building wealth with Real Estate,” that, “nevertheless, real estate stocks should not be written off too hastily.”
In other countries, real estate stocks are the standard vehicle for indirect real estate investments. In contrast, open-ended and closed-end real estate funds have dominated in Germany for many years. These forms of indirect investment are not going to disappear – in fact, a market shakeout has recently taken place. But real estate stocks will continue to strengthen their role. Unfortunately, neither private nor institutional German investors have fully embraced the concept of real estate stocks. More than 95% of the shareholders in listed real estate companies in Germany come from abroad. Why is this the case?
The somewhat simple-minded view of German investors (both private and institutional) is: Real estate represents “stability” and limited volatility. As stocks are inherently volatile, the two simply do not go together as far as they are concerned.
These investors believe that the volatility of an investment is lower when its value is only calculated at widely-spaced and irregular intervals. An example: They view real estate as a “safe” investment because they cannot read about drastic changes in its value every day in their newspapers. No one who bought a detached house a decade ago can be sure what it is really worth today, not unless they try to sell it. Between buying and selling the house, an owner can happily live with the illusion that the value of their house has increased, even if it has really fallen.
There are also no regular valuations for closed-end real estate funds and tenanted apartments or apartment blocks. And even if a fund or piece of real estate was to be revalued every 12 months, the irregularity of such assessments would naturally reduce the appearance of volatility in comparison with the real estate stocks that constantly priced by the market.
When asked about their motives for investing in real estate, most private and institutional investors say that “stability” is their main concern. The impression of “stability” is largely created by the fact that any fluctuations in a property’s value are masked by non-existent, irregular or even overly-flattering (or inaccurate) valuations. Whereas the volatility of bonds, stocks and commodities is clear for all to see, the hidden volatility of real estate prices leads many to believe that there is no volatility at all.
This is nonsense. For those planning on holding on to their investment for the long-term, volatility is not a disadvantage at all, if anything, it is an advantage: When stocks are priced at a discount to net asset value, they can be acquired cheaply. Those days are unfortunately a few years behind us – but they will have to come again at some point. Based on my familiarity with German institutional investors, they will start to invest in real estate stocks at exactly the same moment that the stocks become over-valued and over-priced. And as soon as the stocks return to offering good value, that’s when institutional investors will start to point their fingers at previous declines, start talking about high volatility and steer clear of real estate stocks.
Private and institutional investors have missed out on fantastic opportunities over the last few years as they have ignored real estate stocks! A few years ago I bought into Gagfah at an average of €4 per stock. After double-figure dividends, I eventually sold the stocks at twice the price I had paid for them. The stock price continued to climb after I sold my stocks. I could have kicked myself for not buying more Gagfah stocks, but this was because I normally stuck to ETFs rather than picking up individual stocks. Nevertheless, my Gagfah deal put me way ahead of the private investors who have put their money into open-ended real estate funds which have delivered, according to the OFIX Index, an average return of 0.6% per year over the last five years. At the same time, the value of the DIMAX, Germany’s real estate stock index, has shot up by 130%.
Not much has changed as far as German real estate stocks are concerned – they are still playing catch up. While there are a number of serious players in the housing sector (Deutsche Wohnen, LEG, TAG, Adler, etc.), there is a shortage of real estate stock companies specialised in retail, office or other property segments. I can easily imagine real estate stocks for companies investing in commercial real estate, hotels or care homes.
The rise of Germany’s residential real estate stocks is a clear smack in the face for the Social Democrats, Greens and tenants lobbying groups: As G-REITs were introduced, they were determined to exclude residential real estate companies. Unlike in every (!) other country with REITs, legislation in Germany expressly excluded REITs from buying existing housing stock. This has achieved absolutely nothing as the market has exerted itself despite these restrictions. Even without REIT status, there are a number of large-scale, residential real estate stock companies that have emerged since REITs were first introduced.
Read also Rainer Zitelmanns Finance Blog.
Construction and Real Estate Industries Benefit Most from Subsidies
As reported in the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 03.09.2015, the construction and real estate industries are the main beneficiaries of new federal subsidies. This is revealed in the Federal Government’s 25th Subsidy Report. The most extensive subsidies are related to €1.5 billion of loans earmarked for 2016 by the KfW Banking Group to enable the energy-efficient modernisation of the country’s building stock. In total, federal subsidies have risen from €20.4 billion in 2013 to almost €23 billion in 2016. Housing is the biggest winner. Public money has been allocated to energy-saving and CO2 reduction measures, savings’ schemes and pension provisions, and the revitalisation of inner-city districts. Urban development is being subsidised to the tune of €191 million.
IW Study: German Housing Needs More Space
The HANDELSBLATT (on 02.09.2015) and the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG (03.09.2015) both reported on a study released by the German Institute of economics (IW) which revealed that Germans require ever more residential space. According to the study, there was an average of 36.1 square metres of residential space per head of population in 1991. This figure had risen to 46 square metres by 2013. The IW forecasts that this trend will continue, reaching an average of 51.5 square metres by 2030. Whether this will actually lead to larger apartments is an open question. “The more the price of housing goes up, the fewer households will actually be able to afford bigger apartments,” observed Andreas Fohrenkamm of NCC Deutschland. “It may well be true that across Germany as a whole, per capita space is increasing,” said Markus Selinger of CG Gruppe, “but in the cities, the trend is towards more compact housing solutions. More and more people are setting up home in cities, which automatically leads to a shortage of desirable housing, especially in large cities such as Munich and Frankfurt.”
High Levels of Investor Demand for Office Real Estate in Germany’s Major Cities
The BÖRSEN ZEITUNG reported on 04.09.2015 that the top seven cities in Germany increased their share of the total office real estate sales market. This was determined by Commerz Real in it’s latest European Office Markets report. Munich topped the table with total sales of almost €3.8 billion between the beginning of July 2014 and the end of June 2015. Sales also increased in Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne and Frankfurt, while falls were seen in Düsseldorf and Stuttgart. The fact that supply could not keep up with demand is one reason for these declines. Sustained demand across Germany’s major office centres, as well as in many other European countries, has led to substantial price rises and pushed capitalized values beyond the previous market peak. This is especially true in Berlin and Munich. In Southern Europe’s crisis-hit countries, there is still a great deal of potential for increases. Alongside Germany, investors also continue to focus on Great Britain and France. More than 70% of total sales took place in these countries.
Commercial Real Estate: Decoupling of Letting and Investment Markets
While demand for commercial real estate is driven by the billions investors have at their disposal, there is no such equivalent driver in the lettings market. This is why the prices paid for commercial real estate are rising at a much faster rate than the rents for retail space, reported the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 03.09.2015. The real estate brokerage house, Comfort, reported total sales amounting to €1.4 billion in the German commercial real estate sector. Compared with H1 2014, this represented growth of around 60%. “Sentiment remains “euphoric”. The sales figures will reach record levels by the end of the year,” observed Jürgen Kreutz from Comfort. Letting agents that specialise in commercial real estate are having a much tougher time, particularly with smaller units under 150 square metres. The prices for commercial real estate have been increasing “disproportionately” to rents. “The investment market has reached the stage where it is almost completely decoupled from the lettings market,” commented Comfort.
Real Estate Tax: Rates Rise to Record Levels
The IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 10.09.2015 contained a report on real estate tax assessment rates. The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce identified unprecedented increases in assessment rates for real estate taxes levied on developed land (Grundsteuer B). The average unweighted average rate in municipalities with more than 20,000 inhabitants has increased by 18 points to 527. There are however considerable variations between municipalities. Assessment rates in North-Rhine Westphalia had gone up by an average of 44 points and in Hessen by 38 points. Authorities in both regions had already been amongst those most to frequently ramp up their tax rates. Third place was occupied by Rhineland-palatinate which had increased its assessment rate by 15 points.
Real Estate Transfer Tax: Retroactive Increases for Share Deals
Dr. Jürgen van Kann from the Fried Frank legal partnership wrote in 05.09.2015’s BÖRSEN ZEITUNG about a judgement issued by the German Constitutional Court that requires the Federal Government to adjust the mechanism by which it determines the correct value of real estate when companies change hands. Current guidelines, whereby the ground value is used as the basis of assessment when more than 95% of the shares in undeveloped land are sold, and an amount equivalent to 12.5 times the actual or usual annual net rent is used for developed land, have been declared unconstitutional. The values calculated with these methods are between 50% and 70% lower than current market values and therefore violate principles of equality. The court has given legislators until mid-2016 to introduce new regulations. The new laws will apply retroactively to all transactions since 2009. As the new regulations will result in assessments closer to true market values, it is to be expected that reassessment will result in new tax liabilities. Both buyers and sellers will equally share these new tax liabilities as, irrespective of individual contractual agreements, both parties to a deal share the burden of real estate transfer taxes equally. It is therefore recommended that parties involved in all such transactions since 2009 have their tax liabilities reassessed. HANDELSBLATT.COM reported further on 09.09.2015 that many owners are unaware of the true value of their real estate and that online services offer an alternative to expensive property surveyors. “The owners of detached houses often over-estimate the worth of their homes,” said Sun Jensch from the IVD. With realbest, homeowners can receive an initial valuation of their property within minutes. “We make use of the same database that is commonly used by many banks,” explained Matthias Baumeister from realbest.
Academics Demand New Procedure for the Compilation of Rent Indexes
Scientists from the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and the Irebs research institute at the University of Regensburg have demanded a more transparent procedure for the compilation of rent indexes and the exclusion of politicians and interest groups from the process. This was reported in the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 10.09.2015. According to a jointly published study, benchmark local rents specified by the indexes are much lower than actual rents being paid in given neighbourhoods. This is partly a result of political interference and partly due to the methods used to survey tenants and landlords. Alongside a more efficient process for producing rent indexes, the experts also demanded a more scientific methodology and increased consideration of specific locational features.
Intelligent Technology More Widespread in Housing and Retail
DIE WELT contained a report on technical solutions for intelligent housing, commonly referred to in Germany as Smart Homes, on 09.09.2015. A study released by the US research institute IHS Technology forecasts sales of €9.3 billion on Smart Home technologies by the year 2018. Research and development has so far been hampered the failure of manufacturers and developers to agree on uniform standards for connecting different equipment, said Andreas Trumpp of Savills Investment Management. Nevertheless, homes incorporating Smart Home solutions are currently being built. The CG Gruppe has built 124 apartments in Carré Charlotte in Berlin-Charlottenburg that allow tenants to regulate their heating, lighting and blinds via touch-screens, explained Markus Selinger from the CG Gruppe. There will also be developments in the retail real estate sector, with a clear trend towards smaller logistic centres in more convenient locations, necessary for the more speedy delivery of groceries. These centres need their own smart technologies in order to automate stock monitoring systems. Oliver Herrmann from Redos has already observed how investors are considering such issues as they acquire retail parks and centres, assessing the amount of potential interim storage space available to support e-Commerce operations.
Student Apartments an Attractive Proposition for Private Investors
The SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG reported on 11.09.2015 that a shortage of student apartments in Germany’s university towns is attracting more and more private investors into the student apartment market. New residences are being constructed everywhere, even in cities in Eastern Germany, such as Leipzig and Greifswald, where vacancy rates are already high. According to CBRE’s Student Housing Market Report, 20,000 accommodation units are either in construction or in the pipeline, 17,000 of which are being developed by private developers. Publicly subsidised student residencies (offering 230,000 student apartments across the country) currently house roughly 9% of the total student population.
Record Prices in Berlin
DIE WELT reported on 10.09.2015 that a study published by the Institute for Housing, Real Estate, Urban and Regional Development (InWIS) indicated that 3.3% of the condominiums on sale in Berlin in 2013 and 2014
were put on the market and prices in excess of €750,000. One percent of the condominiums had list prices of more than €6,000/square metre. The highest price recorded in Berlin-Grunewald was €17,576/square metre. Records were set in Charlottenburg (€24,561/square metre), Prenzlauer Berg (€27,782/square metre) and Berlin-Mitte (€28,676/square metre). Berlin-Mitte also set the record for the highest average asking price, at €6,716/square metre.
GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS
Only the contributions titled “Commentary – by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann” reflect the editor’s opinion. Responsible: Dr. Rainer Zitelmann. The facts represented in press items are not checked for accuracy. Copyright for GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS: Dr.ZitelmannPB.GmbH, Rankestr.17, 10789 Berlin, Germany. Copying or electronic forwarding of the newsletter, except by contractual agreement with Dr.ZitelmannPB.GmbH, constitutes a violation of applicable copyright laws.
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for London (Inner City)
Inner London has no peer, other than New York, as the world’s most important center for banking and financial services. This role assures an excellent infrastructure, notably with respect to high-speed communications. The segment of financial and business-oriented services accounts for more than 50 percent of total regional production. Accordingly, the economic performance of Inner London as a whole is extremely dependent on how this highly productive but potentially volatile sector develops. This dependence became obvious in the years after 2007, with the onset of a serious financial crisis that rocked the global economy. The crisis has constrained the performance in banking and finance, and in the closely related sector of business-oriented services. Yet these sectors remain mainstays of London’s regional economy. Their potential for high competitiveness and productivity, considered from a broad perspective, must be seen as an asset.
Feri rates Inner London as a business location “AA”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2014. It translates into “high potential, low risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 2nd in the comparison of European Metropolises.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Inner London “C”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2014. The city ranks 22nd among office locations of European Metropolises. Feri awards the office top locations “C” and the side locations “C”
With 24 million square meters of office stock, London ranks among the very most important office markets in Europe. Famous sub-markets are the City, where the financial sector is paramount, and the West End, where business-related services dominate. The rents in London’s West End are among the most expensive office rents worldwide. Due to London’s importance as a global financial and services center the office market is particularly attractive for company headquarters of leading international firms. The immense supply of prime real estate, the market’s depth, as well as high liquidity and transparency, all serve to draw keen interest from real estate investors. The main risk: high market volatility.
Inner London’s office rents have been rising since the beginning of 2010. But in 2012 rents stagnated even in London. Global enterprises of the financial- and service sector in search of presence in London strengthen demand. The creation of new office jobs, however, currently take place less in the financial sector than in areas like Business Services and TMT (telecommunications, media and technology). The low vacancy rate – as most recently in 2008 – and the moderate construction activity over the next two years will continue to put pressure on rents. For the upcoming five years we estimate the average increase in rents at roughly 4 % per year, clearly above the long-term trend.
Speculatively excessive yield levels, hardly higher than the yields of long-term government bonds, were reached at the peak of the recent investment cycle. Since the bubble burst in summer 2007, rental yields have dropped by 250 basis points. Since 2009 international investors, strong in equity capital and aware of risk, utilized this level for reentering the market with long-term investments in the prime segment. Since then, rental yields have dropped again by 125 – 150 basis points and have stabilized clearly below fair value since 2012. However, low bond-yields and London’s reputation as “safe haven” in core real estate, will support the current level of rental yields.
Determining a favorable price level requires realistic consideration of increases in value as well as market risks. At the peak of the market euphoria in mid-2007 investors became almost totally blind to the risks. Meanwhile, these factors are again priced relatively efficient, although the due to the strong demand for “core products” and lack of investment alternatives Westend-Yields with 3.5% clearly lie below the long-term average. We estimate the fair rental yield for London’s total market at 5.4 %. The current market yield 100 Basispoints below this.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of European Metropolises regarding retail real estate London placed 1st with a rating result of “A”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2014. Feri awards the retail top locations “A” and the side locations “AA”.
Inner London is one of the world’s top shopping venues. Retail rents are extremely high. Yet, in general, demand for retail space is supported by the high purchasing power of local residents, people from outlying areas who frequent shopping areas offering luxury products (despite having a chaotic parking situation), and – very significantly – huge numbers of tourists. During the financial crisis years rents showed a negative development, due to the coinciding factors of supply augmentation and slacker demand amid cyclical economic weakness and thus subdued consumption. But for the medium term and beyond, Inner London’s retail space market should again post rising rents at both top and secondary locations.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Inner London placed 1st among European Metropolises with a rating result of “A”, unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2014.
Inner London has Europe’s highest residential rents. Extraordinarily high demand, along with short supply, drove quite a long run of extremely high annual rent increases. But in 2003 and 2004 the onset of some cyclical economic doldrums induced a turn to decreasing rents in the city center. However, one must consider the decreases merely a correction after an exaggerated run-up. The area’s low supply of residential units, with sufficient support from an intermittently recovering economy, has again recorded rent increases ever since 2005. Over the forecast horizon, Inner London will keep drawing employees of national and international firms and organizations in need of housing. Thus, rising rents for both new and existing apartments can be expected in upcoming years.
Similar to Inner London’s rental housing market, its market for home ownership is among the most expensive in the world. Very short supply inside the city boundaries,along with strong demand from high-income groups, led to extremely high price increases, at rates comparable to the rise in rents. But from 2007 the price increases decelerated, and in 2008 and 2009 the pattern was one of negative yearover-year price changes. Due to robust growth and government credit subsidies the house and apartment prices in 2013 rose again in double digits. A great influence on the exorbitant price development had net worth investors looking for safe investments. This development will, however – apart from the luxury segment – normalize in the coming years.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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