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Somehow, there is a Greek Side to Europeans
by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann
On 10 July, the FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG carried one of the best articles on the crisis in Greece I have read, a piece by Richard Fraunberger titled “At a Crossroads.” It articulates certain ideas that are as provocative as they are worth pondering:
“Without a cultural and mental shift, Greece will never advance to the level of a modern European state, no matter what sort of reform the EU pushes for. But this is not the sort of shift that can be decreed. A shift requires awareness and plenty of time.”
“Greeks hope without thinking, says the Greek philosopher Stelios Ramfos. They take leave of their common sense. For them, politics is like witchcraft. No one is giving serious thought to the question of how the unemployment could be rolled back. The government will take care of it, even if it means creating government jobs. Government and pensions, these are the sacred cow.”
However, I should like to add: Somehow, there is a Greek side to most Europeans. That is why the Greek exit from the eurozone is such a tough question for them to answer. The notion that “the government will take care of it” is rather wide-spread in Europe, not just in Greece and not just among the political left. Sure, the opinion is more widespread among the French than it is among the British, but generally speaking, Europeans are inclined to have faith in government rather than in the forces of the market. The difference being that the notion is particularly prevalent in Greece.
The article goes on to say:
“Greeks also have a different way of handling rules. While Europe is governed by the primacy of rules, the primacy of breaking rules governs Greece.”
Is it still safe to say that, though? Yes, it is, because the term “rules” is largely alien to the Greek. For them, playing by the rules is at most one of several options for action, nothing more. But has not the Eurozone crisis turned most Europeans into Greeks? Has not every rule in the book been suspended? Can you think of a single rule spelled out in the Maastricht Treaty that has not been breached yet? And do not the rules of the ECB and of the various bailout plans come up for discussion on a daily basis to twist them in a “shrink to fit” approach? Are the rules that were agreed just years ago and signed into law not broken day in, day out?
There is no way for Greece to be saved, because it lacks every kind of requirement. The most important prerequisite would be to understand the truth about one’s own situation. Such understanding is always the first step en-route to recovery. But there is no sign of it at all. What good does it do when the Greek promise to get reforms under way that they themselves reject out of hand? Just in recent days, Alexis Tsipras stated time and again that he considers the reforms a misguided approach even if he just consented to them.
If the eurozone member states cannot even cope with the comparatively minor issue of Greece (2% share in the cross-European GDP), it is perfectly obvious that the supposedly ever-so-effective protective mechanisms, bailout plans and all the rest of it have ceased to work. How will an umbrella that cannot protect you from a slight drizzle because it is full of holes and tears protect you from a shower of rain, to say nothing of a downpour? What if not Greece but Italy or France, for example, had to be “bailed out”? The answer is in the question.
The Greeks are merely holding up a mirror to our faces. The malaise of the European welfare state presents itself here in its most extreme symptoms – the distrust vis-à-vis the market, the erosion of the principles of the rule of law, and a naive faith in the ability of Big Government to straighten things out in some way.
Read also Rainer Zitelmanns Finance Blog.
German Insurance Companies Raise their Real Estate Allocation
The IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 09 July that, according to a survey conducted by EY Real Estate, German insurance companies have raised their real estate ratio from 7.3% to 7.6%. The mean real asset holdings of 30 insurance companies that EY Real Estate polled rose by approximately 360 million euros to 2.83 billion euros on average. Direct holdings reportedly accounted for an average of two billion euros, and indirect holdings for almost another 800 million euros. In order to make good on their guaranteed interest rate promised, insurers seek to turn their back on bonds in favour of real estate, as Dietmar Fischer, Partner at EY Real Estate, was quoted to have said. This year, the insurers seem to be aiming for a real estate ratio of 8.2%.
Germany’s Residential Investment Market in H1 2015: Banner Year Prediction
As DIE WELT reported on 08 July and the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 09 July, the residential transaction market broke every record in the book during H1 2015. JLL was quoted with a sum total of 17.5 billion euros in traded property (H1 2014: 6.9 billion euros). This contrasts with the total of 15.1 billion euros that Savills was said to have determined for the first semester of 2015, or the figures quoted by Dr. Lübke & Kelber (16.59 billion euros) and CBRE (16.9 billion euros). More than anything else, the trend appears to have been fuelled by takeovers of residential property PLCs. “The result was driven specifically by the one-off effects of recent corporate takeovers,” said Ulrich Jacke of Dr. Lübke & Kelber. According to the company, the takeover of Gagfah bei Deutsche Annington alone accounted for eight billion euros. 73% of the traded residential units were said to be located in Class B cities because the yields in Germany’s six leading cities had dropped below the acceptable level.
No Anticipatory Effect Noted ahead of Rent Freeze
As the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 09 July, citing a survey by the Immowelt real estate portal, rents in Germany’s 14 biggest cities remained largely stable or showed negligible gains during Q1 2015. Concerns over anticipatory effects ahead of the introduction of the rent control scheme commonly referred to as the “rent freeze” were therefore unfounded, or so the article suggests. That said, Manfred Binsfeld of the FERI EuroRating Services warned not to rush to conclusions, and called for a careful empirical, scientific analysis instead. Among the first things that should be sorted out in his opinion is the question just when did landlords start to realise that the rent freeze would indeed be introduced? 2013, the year when German media began to pick up on the topic, was also the year that saw the steepest rent hikes in the mentioned cities. Sun Jensch of the IVD Federal Investment and Asset Management Association emphasised that several professional housing companies had exploited the margin left by the rental index and adjusted their rents.
Rents in Berlin Softening for the First Time since 2009
The FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG (08 July), DIE WELT (09 July) as well as the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG (10 July) reported that the average net rent in Berlin dropped to 8.53 euros/sqm in June according to stats provided by the ImmobilienScout24 real estate portal, a month-on-month decline by 3.1%. The media added that it marks the first dip in asking rents in Berlin since 2009. Marcus Drost and Jan Habecker of ImmobilienScout24 were quoted with the opinion that the decline is definitely attributable to the rent freeze. Meanwhile, rents in cities that have not yet introduced the rent freeze continued to rise. Even in Berlin, rents went up in new buildings, which are exempt from the rent freeze. Month over month, they rose by 0.2% to 12.57 euros/sqm. Berlin’s tenant association criticised nonetheless that many landlords fail to abide by the rent freeze.
Growing Vacancies in East Germany
DIE WELT, the HANDELSBLATT and the FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG wrote on 07 July that the downtrend of the void rate in the East German states was checked for the first time in many years in 2014. According to the papers, nearly one in ten apartments in East Germany is unoccupied. By the end of last year, a total of 580,000 flats was not let, compared to a total of around 76,000 unoccupied units in West Germany. The shift in trend was said to coincide with recent spending cuts for modernisations among the housing companies. According to figures disclosed by the Federal Association of German Housing and Real Estate Companies (GdW), investments dropped by 1.3% to 7.1 billion euros last year.
Transaction Market for Commercial Real Estate: Outlook Suggests Record Year
The transaction volume for commercial real estate added up to 24 billion euros during H1 2015 as the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG wrote on 09 July. Compared to H1 2014, this implies a one-year increase by 42%. Office and retail properties accounted for ten billion euros each, whereas logistics and hotel properties each claimed 1.5 billion euros worth of transactions. Estate agents now predict a year-end transaction volume between 45 billion and 55 billion euros. According to CBRE, the strongest buyer group of H1 2015 was composed of listed real estate companies and REITs, completing more than 6.7 billion euros worth of transactions. Domestic buyers spent a total of 10.3 billion euros, according to CBRE. Among the overseas investors, Canadian buyers figured most prominently with 3.4 billion euros. “Investors from North America and Asia played decisive roles, as they consider the German market one their most important European destinations for real estate investments, second only to London,” Jan Linsin of CBRE was quoted to have said.
Retail Real Estate Transaction Volume Doubles
As DIE WELT reported on 08 July, almost 6.1 billion euros were invested in retail real estate during Q2. This means that the mid-year turnover almost doubled at 9.5 billion euros. Moreover, the year-end sales total of approximately 9 billion euros was already topped by mid-2015. “The investment market for retail property is growing with a sustainable momentum,” Jan Dirk Poppinga of CBRE was said to have commented. By far the largest transaction identified by the paper was the sale of the Kaufhof department store package to the Canadian investor Hudson’s Bay for 2.4 billion euros. This explains why department stores were the fastest-selling property type with a transaction volume of nearly 2.7 billion euros, followed by commercial buildings (2.5 billion euros) and shopping centres (c. 2.3 billion euros). The key players are foreign investors, especially real estate conglomerates and investment funds from the United Kingdom and the United States. These investors exploit the weakness of the euro because “the exchange rate fluctuations opened an auspicious window of opportunity for strategic investments in Germany,” said Jan Linsin of CBRE according to the paper. At the same time, German players were just about as active. Patrizia AG, for one, spent 286 million euros for a package of 107 supermarkets and retail warehouse parks. The acquisition brought the managed assets in the form of these special-purpose properties up to 1.6 billion euros. “This makes us one of the biggest landlords in the segment,” Wolfgang Egger of Patrizia was quoted to have said.
Risk-Averse Investors Consider Commercial Property in Stuttgart a Safe Bet
According to a piece the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG carried on 09 July, Stuttgart’s investment market headed for a record during H1 2015. Colliers International and Ellwanger & Geiger determined a commercial property investment volume of approximately 640 million euros for this period. According to the Stuttgart branch of Savills, the state capital of Baden-Württemberg is particularly interesting for risk-averse investors. Core properties are not quite as pricey here at elsewhere, although the fundamentals are on a level with Germany’s other “Big Seven” cities. Here, too, office properties were among the fastest-trading assets, “accounting for a share of 55%,” as Björn Holzwarth of Ellwanger & Geiger was quoted. He added that he had counted 35 transaction in H1. With a share of 57% in the transaction volume, open-ended funds and institutional funds were the most active buyers.
Stuttgart: Surging Condo Prices
Stuttgart registered a noticeable price hike for condominiums, free-standing homes and plots last year, as the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 16 July, quoting the real estate market report by the city’s property valuation committee. It was the second year in a row that saw double-digit price growth for existing condominiums at an average rate of 10%. Prices for new condominiums prices, by contrast, rose at an average rate of 6.5% to 4,295 euros/sqm. All things considered, buyers invested more than 2.72 billion euros, approximately 239 million euros (+9.6%) more than the year before. The price growth was said to have continued in Q 2015.
Office Markets in Major German Cities Continue to Grow
In its 16 July issue, the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG talked about the persistently high demand on the office markets of the leading German cities. Berlin’s office market, for instance, ended the first semester of 2015 with a record turnover of 337,000 sqm, an increase by well over 20%, as the paper reported on the basis of figures from major estate agencies. At the moment, the majority of market analysts put the prime rent in Berlin at 23.00 euros/sqm, which is 0.50 euros/sqm more than was registered during the prior-year period. Since 2014, the average rent rose by 4% to 13.23 euros/sqm according to Catella Property, and to 13.75 euros/sqm according to Colliers. The office market in Düsseldorf achieved the finest mid-year result in five years due to several major lease signings in H1 2015. Depending on what estate agency you ask, the reported take-up ranged from 166,805 sqm (Catella) to 208,000 sqm (Aengevelt). Then again, the average rents reportedly dropped by 10% to 13.30 euros/sqm during H1 2015, according to Savills. The drop is explained by many major contract signings in peripheral office markets, as Panajotis Aspiotis of Savills was quoted to have said. Calculations by CBRE suggest that there are 300,000 sqm of office accommodation on the market in Munich. However, there are virtually no voids in downtown areas inside the ring road (Mittlerer Ring), nor are there any major developments in the near-term pipeline. The Munich branch of Colliers determined that no more than 90,000 sqm will come on-stream in inner city locations between now and 2017. In Frankfurt am Main, 323 new leases signed during H1 2015 added up to a total take-up of 180,000 sqm, which represents the mean between the total quoted by several estate agencies. Roughly three out of four contracts were signed for units of less than 5,000 sqm, according to BNP Paribas Real Estate (BNPPRE). The prime rent was anywhere between 35.50 euros/sqm (JLL) and 39.00 euros/sqm (CBRE). The rent average climbed by one euros/sqm, and now equals between 18.50 euros/sqm (Savills) and 20.00 euros/sqm (Colliers). The mid-year turnover in Hamburg totalled 1.95 billion euros according to stats released by JLL, which would exceed the five-year mean by 94% and the ten-year mean by 75%. Figures quoted by G&B suggest that 45% of the turnover represented package deals.
Retail Real Estate: Last Year’s Transaction Total already Topped
The IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG cited Savills when reporting on 16 July that the transaction volume of German retail real totalled approximately 9.8 billion euros by mid-year 2015, thereby already exceeding the year-end total of 2014 (9 billion euros). The forecast for the year as a whole was raised to 15 billion euros. At least 25 shopping centres in a combined value of approx. 1.8 billion euros are still on the market, the paper added. The single largest transaction in H1 2015 was the takeover of 43 Kaufhof assets by a joint venture of Hudson’s Bay Company and Simon Property Group. About two thirds of the transaction volume represented portfolio deals like Patrizia’s acquisition of 107 supermarkets from Eurocastle for 286 million euros. According to BNPP RE, prices for retail warehouses soared over the past nine to twelve months. In this segment, prime yields reportedly dropped to 5.8% during Q2 2015.
Keen Demand for Logistics Properties Driving up Prices
As the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 16 July, the strong demand for logistics properties among investors from inside and outside Germany has driven down the net prime yields since the beginning of this year. According to CBRE, yields for Grade A core products softened by 0.2 percentage points to 5.6% during Q2 2015. The paper went on to report that net prime yields for best-of-class logistics assets were about 160 to 200 basis points higher than those for top office or retail assets in Munich, for instance. During H1 2015 international investors were said to have claimed a share of 60% to 70% in the transaction volume. All in, between 1.2 and 1.6 billion euros were committed in European logistics assets during the first semester of 2015.
Recommended Reading – by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann
The Tao of Warren Buffett
Mary Buffett, David Clark, The Tao of Warren Buffett. Words of Wisdom and Interpretations from the World’s most Famous Investor, London: Pocket Books, 2008, 256 pages
The book, which was edited by the former daughter-in-law of investor Warren Buffett together with a co-author, includes a total of 125 sayings by Buffet, each of which is explained and interpreted by the authors. Buffett has mastered not just the art of investing, but also the craft of rhetoric, because he often wraps profound insights into humorous sentences and highly evocative images. Here are some highlights I find particularly well done in a book that is equally instructive and amusing:
“The smartest side to take in a bidding war is the losing side.” (No. 108)
“Wall Street makes its money on activity. You make your money on inactivity.” (No. 65)
“I want to be able to explain my mistakes. This means I do only the things I completely understand.” (No. 93)
“You can’t make a good deal with a bad person.” (No. 4)
“If we can’t find things within our circle of competence, we don’t expand the circle. We’ll wait.” (No. 99)
The subjects covered by the book, rather than being limited to investing and making money, also include some general guidance by Warren Buffett that I appreciated just as much. Here is an example:
“There comes a time when you ought to start doing what you want. Take a job that you love. You will jump out of bed in the morning. I think you are out of your mind if you keep taking jobs that you don’t like because you think that it will look good on your résumé. Isn’t that a little like saving up sex for your old age?” (No. 55)
“The chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken.” (No. 14)
“Imagine that you had a car and that was the only car you’d have for your entire lifetime. Of course, you’d care for it well, changing the oil more frequently than necessary, driving carefully, etc. Now, consider that you only have one mind and one body. Prepare them for life, care for them. You can enhance your mind over time. A person’s main asset is themselves, so preserve and enhance yourself.” (No. 73)
“There is nothing like writing to force you to think and get your thoughts straight.” (No. 70)
“If you let yourself be undisciplined on the small things, you will probably be undisciplined on the large things as well.” (No. 69)
“If you understand an idea, you can express it so others can understand it.” (No. 96)
I personally read the book not just once but keep going back to it, because it pays to ponder Buffet’s observations, and to wonder in what ways you can benefit from them in your own life, in your work, and in your investments. Some of these epithets contain more food for thought than many long-winded tomes.
For more reviews of interesting business books, see
Zitelmanns Book Reviews
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for Warsaw
Warsaw is Poland’s largest economic and cultural center as well as the national capital and seat of government. Since the fall of the “Iron Curtain” in 1989, Warsaw has developed into a city of international importance. Its economic growth in the latter part of the nineties significantly outpaced the Polish average as well as the overall European average. Warsaw still has to catch up with other European urban centers in attaining a more modern, dynamic economic configuration. Warsaw has a generally very good infrastructure with functional transport and communication connections. The political changes that have taken place since 1990, and especially the opening of the Polish border, have facilitated a noticeable increase in the number of international companies that have located in Warsaw in order to enter the Eastern European market.
Feri rates Warsaw as a business location “AA”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2014. It translates into “high potential, low risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 6th in the comparison of European Metropolises.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Warsaw “C”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2014. The city ranks 20th among office locations of European Metropolises. Feri awards the office top locations “C” and the side locations “C”
The office market in Warsaw, with its size of almost 5 million square meters, is Poland’s largest office market; in recent years it also became an attractive European office location. Warsaw as state capital, a good level of education, and comparable cheap rental prices attract West European enterprises to outsource single business activities or to set up a foreign base for the entrance to the East-European market. The share of modern office stock amounts to 65 %. Usually rents are paid in the euro currency. Risks are seen in a high volatility and an only average transparency.
The development of office space demand will remain weak due to economic conditions in the next two years. A significant number of new office jobs will be created again from 2016 onwards. At the same time, construction activity will stay extraordinary dynamic. With an annual amount of office space of more than 300,000 square meters this is well above the average for the last fifteen years. As a result, the vacancy rate will continue to rise within a timeframe of two years. Only then the Warsaw office market will show a growing tendency to find a new market-equilibrium, supported by the recovery in economic activity. Therefore rental growth will exceed long-term trend growth not before the late forecast period.
During last year, rental yields dropped significantly, anticipating the new occupier cycle from next year on, despite ongoing uncertainty in the Investment Market. The future performance of Office Market values will therefore depend notably on the development of rents and less of yield compression. Price increases caused by decreasing rental yields are only likely if the economic and political situation and the still restrictive credit terms will improve. In the long run, rising interest rates will restrict decreasing yields.
Between the years 2002 and 2007 rental yields in the Warsaw office market compressed almost 400 basispoints, from 10% to about 6%. This was caused by favorable credit terms, euphoric expectations with regard to an ongoing dynamic economic development and the introduction of the Euro. Due to the unexpected high uncertainty caused by the financial crisis and the current recession, the rental yields have been developed rather cautious since then. Considering foreseeable potentials and risks, we expect a fair rental yield of 6.2 % for the years to come. The current rental yield is only some 20 Basispoints below “Fair Value”. Thus the market has above-average potential for appreciation within the forecast horizon.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of European Metropolises regarding retail real estate Warsaw placed 23th with a rating result of “B”, which is downgraded to the 2nd quarter 2014. Feri awards the retail top locations “B” and the side locations “A”.
The Warsaw area accounts for about a quarter of all the retail space in Poland. Yet, it still has a cumulative shortage of retail space per capita, compared to the European average. The supply of retail space in the inner city is very low. In response to demand, developers added store space in secondary locations and built shopping centers in the periphery. International retailers, the main source of demand, have frequently opted to locate in the peripheral centers due to the scarcity of retail space in the central city. Even though Warsaw’s stock of retail space will be augmented in the upcoming years, retail rents in Warsaw, for both top and secondary locations, are expected to continue to rise over the long term.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Warsaw placed 24th among European Metropolises with a rating result of “C”, unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2014.
In the late 1990s, due to high demand for apartments, rents increased strongly in Warsaw, even though rents were already on a high level. Both rents for existing and new apartments have recovered in the last years. In the coming years apartment rents in Warsaw will begin to rise consistently once again. Yet, given the relatively high rent level for central Europe, rent increases in coming years will not reach the level of those posted in the 1990s or during the years before the financial crisis.
Warsaw is Poland’s most preferred market for buying residential property. Demand for condominiums focuses on the two opposite extremes of the market: small, inexpensive housing units, and luxury accommodations in very good locations. For both condominiums and houses, prices vary significantly by location. In the last years rising demand has led to a price increase in all segments. In coming years, one can expect demand, reinforced by Warsaw’s ever-growing importance as Poland’s economic center, to outpace supply rather reliably. However, since a high rate of new completions is projected, major price leaps are unlikely.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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