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Wealth Research – What’s that?
by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann
You could fill quite a bit of shelf space with books on how to get rich. Personally, I’ve read dozens of them. Generally speaking, they fall into either of two categories: The first type of writer will tell you to get rich by “thinking positive” whereas the second type will advise you on how to make a fortune in stocks.
Less well known than the existence of this popular genre is the fact that research on wealth creation has become a serious and established academic discipline in Germany over the past ten years. Academic sociology, whose focus used to be on marginalised groups of the lower social classes or on poverty research, has started to use scientific method to study ways to wealth and the underlying reasons.
What role does inheritance play? What role does entrepreneurship play? What role do stocks play? What role does real estate play? And what sort of personality traits do the affluent share?
A research project on wealth in Germany (“Vermögen in Deutschland”) polled 472 people. The individuals diligently analysed were not the super-rich but the next-door millionaires with an average wealth of 2.3 million euros. The interviews served as basis for doctoral theses and scientific essays published in academic periodicals and anthologies. Finding this a fascinating subject, I started reading up on the findings of US researchers concerning millionaires in the United States. Years ago, these experts polled 1000 American millionaires, and returned with amazing insights.
I also found answers in other places. Did you know that “happiness research” is a scientific field pursued at US and German universities? Here, researchers ponder the fascinating question whether or not money makes people happy (among other factors).
If you are not quite as avid a reader as I am but take an interest, you will find the results summarised on 250 pages in my latest book. Titled “Reich werden und bleiben” (meaning “How to become and stay rich”), it was published by FinanzBuch Verlag, Germany’s leading imprint for finance literature and became available in book stores and on Amazon just yesterday.
Time and again, I have watched people acquire a fortune only to lose it again. That is why I devoted the second part of the book to scientific theories about successful investments, outlining them in easy-to-follow language. As in other scientific discipline, these theories have their own jargon. One of the latest doctoral theses whose findings my book covers includes in its table of contents the English terms “equilibrium accounting,” “recency bias,” “overconfidence,” “emerging market premium,” “return reversal,” “portfolio rebalancing” and others like them, and this even though the thesis was written in German! An academic jargon of this sort is bound to discourage normal investors.
But if you have been reading my commentaries and book recommendations in GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS, you will know that I chose a clear and straightforward rhetoric even though I am a trained academic in my own right. I consider it of the essence to communicate scientific insights and research findings to a wider public.
The part of my book that I personally cherish most is its epilogue of 20 pages in which I show why our society actually needs the rich. I believe that “the rich,” which are a minority in our society, should join in the debate more than they do. The epilogue is a first attempt to legitimise wealth and to pinpoint the important societal function of “the rich.” I am very excited to learn what you will have to say about my new book, dear readers of GREN, and would be delighted it if you found the time to post a critical review on Amazon after reading it.
Read also Rainer Zitelmanns Finance Blog.
Urgent Motion against Contracting-Party-Pays Principle Denied by Court
Two estate agents who filed an urgent motion with the Constitutional Court of Justice in order to delay the effectiveness of the contracting-party-pays principle have suffered a setback. This was reported by the DIE WELT, FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG, and the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG on 28 May. According to the papers, the court argued the two estate agents had failed to produce sufficient corroborating evidence that the new law implies an economic threat either to themselves or to their profession as a whole. The contracting-party-pays principle would reportedly enter into effect on 01 June, and mandate that whoever hired the estate agent involved in the letting of residential premises will be invoiced. That being said, the court has yet to decide on the constitutional complaint filed by the two estate agents. The papers added that the rent freeze would become effective that same day, 01 June, and that the DMB German Tenant Union has called on the German states to take advantage of it soon. The papers named Berlin as the only state that has announced its intention to implement the rent freeze.
Widening Gap between Collateral Values and Fair Market Values
The low level of interest and keen demand are driving up prices and with it the fair market values of properties, whereas the mortgage lending values appraised by the banks are not rising apace. This was reported by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 28 May. The paper went on to say that the market values as of a certain key date are moving steadily away from the long-term mortgage lending values that banks use as collateral value. At this time, the gap already equals 35%, up from between 15% to 20% during normal times. The reason the two benchmarks are drifting apart was said to be the capitalisation rate for which the Mortgage Lending Value Ordinance (BelWertV) defines lower thresholds (5% for residential real estate and 5.5% or 6% for commercial real estate). The appraisal of market values, by contrast, it not subject to such lower thresholds. The effect this has is that financing arrangements are getting more expensive because banks no longer rely on mortgage bonds for their refinancing except to a minor extent. The fact that market values are briskly outpacing the mortgage lending values is not to be blamed on the willingness of property users to spend noticeably more money in the form of rents. Rather, appreciation is based on the huge buyer demand which is fuelled by low-interest rates. “Prices are rising because of the relative attractiveness without the absolute attractiveness , e.g. in the form of rents, having changed,” Marcus Cieleback was quoted to have said, summarising the situation.
Record Level in Orders on Hand for Building Contractors
The building industry is registering a record level in incoming orders for the third time in as many years, as the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG wrote on 28 May. Orders in Q1 2015 were said to have increased by 3% year on year and by 9% in housing construction. By contrast, order in the commercial construction sector appear to have slumped by 4%. The papers went on to say that contractors are booked out for nearly three months in advance. This compares to a historic average or 2.6 months. The top line sales growth is expected to come to a nominal 2% and 1% in real money terms by the end of the year. However, the earnings before income tax (EBIT) are currently down to 2% to 2.5%. A poll commissioned by the Main Association of the German Construction Industry was said to have revealed a rather poor public image of the industry. For eight out of ten respondents, the first thing that came to mind in connection with the building industry was “black labour,” for instance. Another survey showed that three out of four respondents see a considerable potential for optimising the development process of big-ticket projects. Only 40% of the interviewees were familiar with the term Building Information Modeling (BIM).
Every Other Property Has No Energy Performance Certificate
As the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 28 May, only half of all residential property providers can produce energy performance certificates for their properties. According to the market report “Marktmonitor Immobilien 2015,” just 47% of the sellers and 57% of the landlords have an energy certificate despite the fact that certification has been mandatory since May of this year. While half of the 604 real estate companies polled had not shown an increased interest in energy performance certification, 38% of the respondents have realised the increasing relevance of the certificate for prospective buyers (27% in regard to prospective tenants).
More than 30,000 Supporters for a Rent Referendum in Berlin
As DIE WELT reported, the initiative for a referendum against inflated rents in Berlin has collected more than 30,000 signatures so far. The “Berliner Mietenvolksentscheid” initiative needed the signatures of at least 20,000 resident voters by the end of May in order to take the first hurdle for a referendum. The final number of supporters was to be announced on 01 June. In the next step, the signatures are to be handed over to the Department of the Interior of the Berlin Senate together with a petition for a referendum. The referendum’s objective is to coerce the Senate of Berlin to provide substantially more council housing for low-income groups. The idea is to cap the rents charged in municipally owned housing associations and council housing (subsidised social housing construction) and to adjust them to the tenant income. At the same time, the development of affordable housing is to be promoted. Berlin’s Senate Administration anticipates costs to the tune of 3.3 billion euros for the time between 2017 and 2021. The initiative, by contrast, projects a significantly lower total of 1.2 billion euros.
Hungary: Fastest Growing Region on the European Investment Market for Commercial Real Estate
In Q1 2015, commercial real estate investments in Europe gathered steam, registering a one-year growth by 44% up to 50.1 billion euros, as the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG wrote on 27 May. Another trend the paper mentioned is the increasing diversification of investment activities by geography and sector. As a result of this, investment markets in Italy and Portugal experienced particularly brisk growth. Meanwhile, the German market is showing first signs of softening, albeit on a high level. Here, the Real Estate Climate declined for the second month running. With a total of 64.8 billion euros, the United Kingdom maintained its lead position as Europe’s largest property markets during the past twelve months, followed by Germany (34.5 billion euros) and France (26.3 billion euros). Then again, the steepest growth rate was reported from Hungary (+240%, up to 400 million euros). The weighted average yield for prime office property in Europe slumped by another 16 basis points to 5.05%.
Premium Prices Cooling off as a Result of the Rent Freeze
The IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 05 June that premium prices in Berlin have been slowed by the rent control scheme commonly called the “rent freeze.” According to calculations by the immowelt.de real estate portal, the going rent for a flat of 65 sqm in a prime location with state-of-the-art fit-out has flatlined at 10.65 euros/sqm since the rent freeze entered into force on 01 June. In the Borough of Mitte, rents as high as 14.00 euros/sqm are paid for apartments with noticeably inferior fit-out standard. Between 2010 and 2015, rents soared by 50% across Berlin’s city limits.
Private Student Accommodation the Up-and-Coming Trend
As the FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG reported on 05 June, the stock in private student blocks of flats is growing at breakneck speed. Figures released by Savills suggest that the number of private student accommodations has more or less doubled since 2010, totalling about 25,000 now. When taking schemes currently under construction or in planning into account, it is safe to expect the stock to double again to a total of 50,000 by the year 2020. The proportion of private student blocks of flats in the entire student housing stock in Germany’s 30 largest campus towns is likely to increase from now 16% to 22% by 2020. Private accommodation will be particularly quick to rise in Berlin. Here, around 3,600 units are under development that will bring the total up to around 5,000 units.
Commercial Property Package Sales Highly Popular
Portfolios consisting of commercial real estate in the risk class “Value Add” are highly popular at the moment, as the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG wrote on 05 June. For instance, the real estate service provider Archon is offering two packages (called “Emily” and “Archer”) including German office properties in a volume of approximately 300 million euros. According to Dominik Röhrich of Patrizia, competition has intensified since the end of last year. He added that asking prices are subject to very dynamic growth because more and more capital is pouring onto the anyway tight market. “There is a voracious appetite for large commitments, even on our side,” as Röhrich admitted. He added that he believes he is doing the right thing by upholding the company’s quality standards and by letting a deal go rather than compromise them. For Fabian Klein of CBRE, it has become quite normal again to pay premiums on package sales. Smaller properties become more attractive when sold en bloc. “You also get a better risk diversification, and this will in turn help with the financing,” said Klein.
Europe’s Commercial Real Estate Market Growing Dynamically
As the FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG wrote on 05 June, the European commercial real estate market showed a robust performance in Q1 2015. Investments were said to have increased by 44% to 50 billion euros year on year. Especially the markets in Italy and Portugal appear to have revived. Business is particularly brisk in the cities of London, Paris and Munich. The steep growth rate is borne by a bright economic outlook. At the same time, the weak euros is whetting the appetite of many investors.
Berlin Office Rents Driven by High-Tech, Media and Telco Companies
As the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 05 June, the TMT sector (technology, media, and telecommunication) accounts fro around 40% of all office lettings in Berlin. According to Matthias Hauff of CBRE, Berlin’s estate agents are brokering nearly three times as many lease signings with TMT companies as they did in 2010. The sector was described as a driver of rent growth because the companies, while initially favouring affordable rents away from the central office locations, tend accept the high costs associated with larger floor plates later on as they tend to grow quickly. TMT companies love to settle in Wedding, Mitte, Friedrichshain, Kreuzberg and Neukölln, a second hot spot being the sub-area of City West around Ernst-Reuter-Platz. Enterprises that focus on Industry 4.0, Smart Cities, and Internet of Things gravitate toward the science hub of Adlershof. A high TMT density has also been registered on the periphery of the inner city where the weighted average rents have gone up by 43% over the past ten years as a result.
Office Real Estate: Rental Market and Investment Market out of Sync
On 05 June, the FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG and the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG reported that office rents and purchase price for German office properties no longer show a synchronised performance. The keen demand for office floor plate in Germany has pushed
up rents while pushing yield rates down. Rent rates, by contrast, have barely budged. According to findings by CBRE, the prime office prime yields in Frankfurt rose only from 38.00 euros to 39.00 euros during the years 2009 through 2014. This compares to a growth from 30.00 to 33.00 euros in Munich, from 23.00 to 24,50 euros in Hamburg, and 20.00 to 22.50 euros in Berlin. The transaction volume in the office real estate segment, however, rose from 5.1 billion euros to 20.3 billion euros between 2009 and 2014. The imbalance increases the threat of a bubble, the papers concluded. Moreover, prime yields for Grade A office buildings dropped from 5.3% to 4.6% in Frankfurt, from 4.9% to 4.3% in Munich, and from 5.0% to 4.4% in Hamburg between 2009 and 2014. But since yield rates eroded even faster in other asset classes, the attractiveness of office real estate actually increased, despite the fact. Martin Binsfeld of FERI EuroRating Services considers it unlikely that the low office rent yields will scare off investors. While these yields are lower than they were prior to the financial crisis, investment-grade capital is desperately hunting for investment opportunities, especially in Germany because it is seen as a “safe haven.”
Office Developments in Germany Require Pre-let Ratios of 30% or More
An analysis done by Colliers International suggests that new office projects are almost impossible to realise in Germany without signed leases in place, as the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG wrote on 05 June. The minimum pre-let ratio is 30%. The analysis covered 1,175 contracts for 2,7 million square metres in Berlin, Munich, Frankfurt, Düsseldorf and Stuttgart, representing 257 office projects completed between 2008 and 2014. Out of the total of 2.7m sqm, 1.5m sqm had already been marketed by the start of construction work. Most of the forward commitments represented large letting deals of more than 5,000 sqm. The most important tenant group for the pre-completion signings are reportedly consulting companies and the IT sector. Above-average pre-let ratios of 70% each were registered in Berlin, Frankfurt and Düsseldorf, whereas forward commitment ratios in Stuttgart and Munich accounted for merely 30% of the floor area. Colliers explained the difference by citing the low void rates in southern Germany, which encourage speculative developments.
Rising Demand for Logistics Space
The shortage in transport and warehousing space in Germany is prompting a trend toward re-using brownfield sites for logistics purposes and speculative development, according to the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG (05 June). The article suggests that former industrial compounds and military installations are particularly interesting for this kind of conversion. The construction of new logistics warehouse is lagging behind demand due to a lack of space or because local populations and municipal policymakers resent them. According to JLL, the total stock of transport and warehousing space in Germany is 55 million square metres.
Recommended Reading – by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann
The Playboy Story
Susan Gunelius, Building Brand Value the Playboy Way, Palgrave Macmillan, 2009, 256 pages
The introduction to this book is headlined with the “Warning: This Book is Not about Sex.” And indeed it isn’t, because it is all about marketing – using the example of the Playboy brand and of its founder, Hugh Hefner. The book’s author tells the story of how the Playboy brand was built up – and cites the story as a particularly accomplished case of branding.
Naturally, this is the interpretation of a marketing specialist, whereas Hugh Hefner himself acted the way he did not in response to market analyses but by following gut instinct and getting its right (the author herself admits that a thorough market evaluation, had Hugh Hefner bothered to commission one, would probably have concluded that his magazine project was bound to flop, see p. 21).
From an early age, Hefner had had a penchant for writing and a passion for newspapers. At the age of eight or nine, he wrote his own paper and sold it door to door for one cent per issue. In his early professional life, he changed jobs often, never lasting long in any given place. In 1953, he decided to start his own magazine, one that would cover all the subject areas that personally interested him. “Hefner never believed Playboy was a magazine about sex. On the contrary, Hefner believed from the beginning that Playboy was a lifestyle magazine for young men that offered a glimpse into a fantasy world which was actually attainable” (p. 12).
Since the name he originally had in mind, “Stag Party,” was already taken, he named his magazine Playboy. He took out a loan over 600 dollars – pledging his furnishings as collateral – and borrowed another 7400 dollars from family and friends, thus starting out with 8000 dollars. There was no money for an advertising or marketing campaign. Instead, he had a brilliant idea that got him more attention than any normal ad campaign would have: In a clever move, he bought unpublished nudes of Marilyn Monroe (for just 600 dollars) and published them in the first issue of the magazine. So the very first issue was a success, selling 56,000 copies. A year later, each issue had a print run of 185,000. By 1959 each issue already sold 1.1 million copies.
“The magazine offered an opportunity for people to live and think in a different way, and Playboy told them there was nothing wrong with them for living and thinking this way” (p. 13). From the start, Playboy clearly positioned itself, which, in addition to making a statement of what you are, included stating what you are not. Hefner put it this way: “We want to make it clear from the very start, we aren’t a ‘family magazine.’ If you’re somebody’s sister, wife, or mother-in-law and picked us up by mistake, please pass us along to the man in your life and get back to your Ladies Home Companion” (p. 15).
From the start, Hefner got into trouble, running afoul of the US Mail, the FBI, and the moral values prevailing in the United States at the time. Yet ultimately he benefited from the conflicts, and the touch of the forbidden did him more good than harm. “Playboy is the perfect example of how something that is forbidden or deemed inappropriate becomes more desirable than it may have been without the negative publicity surrounding it” (p. 25).
Hefner also knew how to build up himself as a brand. The art of self-marketing was certainly one of the key components of his success. In the 1950s – following his divorce – he himself began to live the life of a playboy, becoming a brand champion on which the readers of his magazine projected their own unfulfilled desires and yearnings.
At the same time, he also managed to gain social recognition because he became increasingly successful in persuading celebrities to have interviews reprinted in Playboy, including Frank Sinatra, Albert Schweitzer, Salvador Dali, Muhammad Ali, Martin Luther King, Jean-Paul Sartre, the Beatles, and Bob Dylan, among many others. He also got acclaimed writers to contribute to his magazine, such as Ernest Hemingway, John Updike, or John Irving (pp. 56-57).
Of course, the book also covers the difficult years for the magazine in detail – with the author arguing that it ultimately overcame these crises only because Hefner had managed to build up an extraordinarily powerful brand.
For more reviews of interesting business books, see Zitelmanns Book Reviews
GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS
Only the contributions titled “Commentary – by Dr. Rainer Zitelmann” reflect the editor’s opinion. Responsible: Dr. Rainer Zitelmann. The facts represented in press items are not checked for accuracy. Copyright for GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS: Dr.ZitelmannPB.GmbH, Rankestr.17, 10789 Berlin, Germany. Copying or electronic forwarding of the newsletter, except by contractual agreement with Dr.ZitelmannPB.GmbH, constitutes a violation of applicable copyright laws.
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for Freiburg
Freiburg is a service and administrative center, and a university town. Besides the large university, Freiburg has several colleges and public research institutes. Due to its outstanding research infrastructure, Freiburg is expected to continue to attract high-tech enterprises, particularly ones engaged in biotechnology, and in environmental engineering and technology. The service sector, which specializes in social and health services as well as business-oriented services, contributes to an above-average share of the region’s output. Conversely, the production share of Freiburg’s industrial sector, principally anchored by chemicals and electrical engineering, is below average. In coming years, both the service sector and the more modern, competitive industrial sector branches will drive a generally good overall economic performance. However, the rather large public sector – typically a slow-growing segment – will dampen Freiburg’s economic dynamism somewhat.
Feri rates Freiburg as a business location “A”, which is upgraded to the 1st quarter 2014. It translates into “high potential, low risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 2nd in the comparison of German B-Centers.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Freiburg “B+”, which is unchanged compared to the 1st quarter 2014. The city ranks 5th among office locations of German B-Centers. Feri awards the office top locations “B” and the side locations “B+”
Demand for office space in Freiburg focuses mainly on central city locations. Despite only moderate new office building activity, a rather prolonged period of cyclically weak economic conditions was reflected in uninterrupted declines – at times, quite sharp – in both rents and purchase prices for office space in Freiburg from 2002 through 2005. However the rental market withstood the previous economic and financial market crisis well. The anticipated economic recovery should enable office rents in Freiburg to increase over the medium term, in both inner city and suburban locations. The expected positive development of rents is additionally supported by the absence of any noteworthy supply expansions slated for Freiburg’s office market.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of German B-Centers regarding retail real estate Freiburg placed 1st with a rating result of “A”, which is upgraded to the 1st quarter 2014. Feri awards the retail top locations “A” and the side locations “B+”.
Freiburg is an attractive retail center, and its location on the French and Swiss border enhances the significance of its retail trade, as various national and international nameplate stores have located here. Freiburg draws in substantial purchasing power from its own suburbs, as well as from adjacent regions across the international border. However, when the railway station restoration (“Bahnhofszeile Freiburg”) notably augmented Freiburg’s volume of retail space, the loose supply conditions induced quite a long-term decline in rents. In 2007 and 2008 rents stabilized. In the coming years rents at both top and secondary locations are expected to rise modestly. Top locations could slightly outperform secondary ones.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Freiburg placed 5th among German B-Centers with a rating result of “B”, upgraded to the 1st quarter 2014.
Freiburg has become a favored residential location in recent years. Demand for housing has increased, as reflected in a recent pattern of consistently rising apartment rents. The strongest demand focuses on existing apartments in preferred city districts. Freiburg’s attractiveness as a residential location supports an expectation that rents for both new and existing apartment units will increase during the upcoming years, perhaps even at modestly accelerating rates. The forecast for the development of rents is optimistic despite a planned extension of supply. Freiburg’s apartment rental market is bolstered by the region’s large contingent of students, who represent a reliable source of demand for housing space.
Despite Freiburg’s population growth in recent years, and its increasingly favorable reputation as a nice place to live, residential property sale prices stayed on a mostly declining trajectory for more than a decade. This adverse trend stemmed from excessive supply expansions in the mid-1990s that swamped Freiburg’s market. In the past years a recovery seems to have taken place. Due to the expected increase of population and positive income trends, prices for detached single-family houses, terrace houses, and condominiums are expected to rise.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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