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House and condominium prices gain further momentum
On 18.10.2016, SPIEGEL ONLINE, FAZ and N-TV ONLINE, along with the FAZ, TAGESSCHAU.DE, SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG, DIE WELT and the HANDELSBLATT on 19.10.2016, reported that house and apartment prices, especially in Germany’s largest cities, are increasing at an ever faster rate. According to the IVD’s Residential Property Price Index, which monitors house and apartment prices in 370 cities, towns and communities across Germany, residential property price increases accelerated in Q2 and Q3 2016 in comparison to the same prior year period. Prices for existing apartments with fair utility value added almost 6% (following increases of just under 5% last year). For single-family houses, buyers paid an average of 4.2% more, after increases of 3.1% during the previous year. Prices for newbuilds and existing properties at the higher end of the market also rose. Newbuild was the only segment to report price stability rather than faster rates of increase, although at 6%, the rate of increase was higher to begin with. The rate of increase for existing apartments with fair utility value in cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants actually surged by as much as 9.4% and single-family houses ended the period nearly 6% more expensive (the previous year saw increases of 7,.5% and 4.8%, respectively), and the average price for an existing apartment at the top of the market added just under 12%. This represents the unbroken continuation of price trends that started in 2010. The biggest price increases among Germany’s top ten cities were registered in Frankfurt (existing apartments with fair utility value added nearly 19%, rising to an average €2,200/sqm). The highest average prices were recorded in Munich, where prices rose by 7.7%. The current average square metre price in the city has now climbed to €4,200/sqm for an existing apartment with fair utility value. Price rises are largely being driven by the scarcity of available housing, which is partly due to strong increases in urban populations. Despite the best efforts of developers and a noticeable increase in construction activity, demand continues to rise and there is a marked shortage of housing coming to market. “Housing construction continues to lag behind demand, and this is clearly reflected in accelerated price increases,” said the IVD’s President, Jürgen Michael Schick. At the same time, observed the IVD, the plentiful supply of liquidity in the market, which is a direct result of the European Central Bank’s ultra-low interest rate policy, is also fuelling price increases. The IVD has also called for politicians to do more to promote homeownership. After all, even with recent price increases, strong wage growth and exceptionally low-cost mortgages mean that homeownership has never been more affordable.
Government warns against hasty reform of mortgage regulations
As revealed by the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 15.10. 2016, and the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 20.10.2016, at a recent sitting of the Council of States in Berlin, representatives of the Federal government warned against over-hasty reforms to the country’s new mortgage regulations. According to Christian Lange, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry for Justice, there are still no reliable figures proving that mortgage lending has declined as a result of the new regulation. He cautioned against rushing to judgement on such a sensitive issue as credit law. Lange offered assurances that the government would take legislative and regulatory action as soon as meaningful data had been compiled. He also warned that there was a risk that the European court would strike down any amendments that subsequently proved to be in breach of European law. Lange issued his warnings in response to efforts from Hesse and Baden-Württemberg, supported by Bavaria, to secure reforms to the new mortgage lending regulations that were introduced in March this year.
Lower volumes in retail real estate transaction market
Investors have so far invested less in German retail real estate in 2016 than they did during the corresponding period of the previous year. This was reported by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 20.10.2016. The latest figures from CBRE reveal that around €8.4 billion was invested in Germany’s retail real estate sector during the first three quarters of 2016. This represents a year-on-year decrease of 40% (prior year: €14 billion). The lion’s share of investment, €3.6 billion, went into retail parks and retail centres, followed by shopping centres with two billion euros and prime, inner-city retail properties, which accounted for €1.8 billion of investment.
Eastern Germany is narrowing the gap
TAG Immobilien’s newly published Eastern Germany Housing Report shows that yields of 7-12% are achievable in Eastern Germany’s mid-sized towns and cities. The report was the subject of an article in the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 20.10.2016. According to the report, the region’s recovery in the 25 years since German reunification is no longer solely limited to major markets such as Berlin, Potsdam or Leipzig.
Most crowd-investing projects are just not big enough
Current regulations designed to protect retail investors mean that it is almost impossible for the initiators of innovative real estate crowd-investing products to achieve further growth. This was revealed by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 20.10.2016. “The real money is to be made on large-volume real estate projects, not on projects in the sub-€2.5 million range,” explained iFunded’s Michael Stephan at the recent Expo Real. Unfortunately, for most projects this is exactly the limit that applies. Above this figure, initiators are required to publish audited investment prospectuses, which would result in significantly higher costs, both for the prospectuses themselves and for more extensive legal consultation. According to crowd-investing initiators, the model is set to experience a significant growth in importance over the next few years. “In five years, at very the latest,” this novel form of financing, “will represent a real alternative to classic approaches to financing in the commercial real estate sector,” said Stephan. A substantial number of initiators are currently working on offering the “crowd” the chance to invest in bigger projects. Germany’s Retail Investor Protection Act is scheduled for re-evaluation in the near future anyway, and this evaluation will now also include discussions on a potential increase to the €2.5 million limit.
Real estate federations issue sobering assessment of the first year of the government’s housing construction offensive
One year after the Federal Construction Minister, Barbara Hendricks, launched the government’s housing construction offensive, an alliance of tenants’ associations, construction sector unions, housing industry federations and construction industry representatives has issued a stark and sobering assessment. This was reported by the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG on 21.10.2016. The federations criticised Germany’s coalition government for its inability to agree on tax incentives to promote the construction of new housing. They also highlighted the fact that municipal authorities have so far failed to provide much in the way of affordable development land. On a more positive note, the federations welcomed a new draft law that will enable municipal authorities to zone certain areas as “mixed-use urban zones”, a new zoning category that will allow denser construction and higher levels of noise than are currently permitted in strictly “residential” areas. This will enable increased densification in already built-up areas. The federal government also indicated that it would like the 16 federal states to more closely align their building codes in order to make serial construction easier and more worthwhile. There is, however, little hope of a uniform building code that would apply across the whole of Germany.
Residential property remains affordable, despite rising prices
As reported by DIE WELT on 22.10.2016 and the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 27.10.2016, prices for condominiums in Germany’s largest cities have risen significantly over the last twelve months, as shown by the IVD’s Residential Property Price Index. Prices have risen fastest in Frankfurt, where apartments cost an average of 18.9% more than in 2015, followed by Cologne (+ 15%) and Stuttgart (+ 11.3%). The rate of increase for single-family houses was just slightly lower. Cologne registered price rises of + 10.3%, and even the prices across all housing categories, and for building land, in smaller communities with less than 30,000 inhabitants have risen by almost knapp 4% within the space of a year. Across all locations, the average price for an existing apartment with fair to moderate utility value rose by some 6%, the fastest rate of increase over the previous five years. In the 14 major metropolises with populations of more than 500,000, median apartment prices added 9.4%, climbing to almost €2,000/sqm. Nationwide, prices for newbuild, mid-market condominiums increased by around 6%. Terraced houses cost 5.1% more, detached houses gained 4.2%. The price of building land in cities with more than half a million inhabitants rose by 8.9%, reaching €382/sqm, from 2015 to 2016. The biggest increase, of 16.9%, was registered in Munich, where prices rose to an average of €1,350/sqm, followed by a rise of 14.3% in Bremen (€160/sqm) and Berlin at 11.1% (€200/sqm). These increases are being driven by low interest rates, which have lowered the costs associated with real estate loans and also made other investment objects comparatively less attractive, combined with ongoing inward urban migration and subdued new housing construction activity. However, these price increases should not be interpreted as alarming, explained the IVD’s President, Jürgen Michael Schick: “Given the figures, it may at first sound somewhat paradoxical, but the affordability of housing is at a historically high level.” Calculations made by the IVD for its latest Affordability Index result in an index score of 143 for 2016, compared with a score that was stubbornly below 100 just ten years ago, indicating that property was far less affordable a decade earlier. Higher wages, but above all low interest rates for construction loans, have more than compensated for the substantial price increases seen in Germany in recent years. Nevertheless, Schick has called on politicians to offer greater support for homeownership, for instance some form of long-term equity replacement loans. Schick points out that, although homeownership is more affordable than ever, recent price rises mean that households on lower incomes are struggling to save for a house deposit, which means they are not well placed to benefit from the current low interest rate climate and low financing costs. As Schick wrote in the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 27.10.2016, the homeownership quota in Berlin is a paltry 16%, well below the national average of 46%, which just happens to be the lowest homeownership rate in the EU.
Federal government submits new draft law to restrict mortgage lending
On 24.10.2016, the German Ministry of Finance sent other governmental ministries a draft version of a precautionary law designed to enhance the supervisory powers of the country’s financial authorities. The proposed law would allow BaFin (the supervisory regulator) to restrict mortgage lending in the event of an overheated property market. This was reported on by the FAZ on 25.10.2016 and the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 27.10.2016. The draft expand on recommendations made by the Committee for Financial Stability in mid-2015, including a tightening of lenders’ mortgage approval requirements. The proposed restrictions would apply just as much to business loans as to mortgages for private borrowers. Regulators would be given the power to set maximum limits for loan-to-value ratios, impose repayment terms and prescribe minimum levels of capital coverage. There would be a small number of exceptions, such as for the social housing sector, future re-financing agreements, and for loans taken out to fund modernisations. There is no intention to intervene in existing loan facilities. Banks would be allowed a small degree of freedom beyond the strict new regulations, and would be permitted to authorise real estate loans that do not fully comply, as long as these do not endanger the stability of the bank or institution. The idea of a national register of mortgages has been abandoned in the latest draft. The plans have been sharply criticised by German banking associations and the IVD. Michael Kemmer from the Federation of German Banks warned: “Restricting bank lending could have serious consequences for the real economy.” In his own response, Michael Schick from the IVD cautioned: “The proposals will simply make it harder to buy property. The new regulations are entirely unwarranted as there are no current indications of a property price bubble. We are a long way away from an oversupply of housing, which would be one contributing factor in any bubble developing.”
Berlin’s commuter belt gains in popularity
On 28.10.2016, the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG reported that a growing number of Berliners are moving beyond the city’s suburbs. According to a recent study from the Association of Berlin-Brandenburg Housing Companies (BBU), almost one third of landlords registered an increase in rentals outside Berlin’s commuter belt over the preceding two years. With just under 15,000 apartments available to tenants at short notice, the region still has more than enough available housing. The cost of housing for tenants in Brandenburg is around €3,300 per year less than for tenants in Berlin.
Not enough rental housing in Stuttgart
DIE WELT on 22.10.2016 and the FAZ on 28.10.2016 both reported on a study from the “Center for Real Estate Studies” at the Steinbeiser-Hochschule in Freiburg, which shows that twice as many apartments and houses needed to be built in Stuttgart over the last two years if demand was to be met. This has led to supply shortages and rental price increases. On the open market, monthly cold rents averaged €11.77/sqm. According to the FAZ, the market situation is not set to ease this year. Given the city’s location in a basin, the supply of building land is limited as the hills surrounding Stuttgart are not suited for development as they have to serve as corridors for fresh air. Rent control has had practically no impact.
Take-up on Frankfurt’s office rental market increases, office investments fall back
According to Colliers, Frankfurt’s office rental market (including Eschborn and Offenbach-Kaiserlei) enjoyed take-up of roughly 344,300 square metres during the first nine months of 2016. This was reported by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 27.10.2016. This represents an increase of around 28% of the corresponding prior year period. Take-up was largely driven by a rise in lettings in the segment up to 5,000 square metres. According to BNPPRE’s figures, spaces larger than 10,000 square metres only contributed 8% to total take-up. Aengevelt Research has analysed take-up according to business sector. Their analysis shows that 34% of space was taken up by companies in the business services sector (2015: 41%). Financial services companies accounted for 30% (2015: 27%), whereas the telecommunication and IT industry saw their share shrink from 12% in 2015 to 9% this year. Industry, trade and transport were responsible for 15% (2015: 12%), and the public sector and organisations such as associations and societies registered a share of 12% (2015: 8%). Analysts pretty much agreed that the peak office rent remained stable at €38/sqm, only Aengevelt arrived at a weighted peak rent of €39/sqm. The office vacancy rate contracted by 11.4%, and, depending on the analyst, there is a supply reserve of between 1.25 million and 1.34 million square metres. For 2016 as a whole, the analysts expect total take up of between 460,000 and just over 500,000 square metres. It looks highly likely that this will be the best full-year result for four years, forecast BNPPRE. In contrast, BNPPRE registered €3.2 billion of investment in Frankfurt’s office market, which represents a 27% decline in comparison with the previous year’s extraordinarily strong result, although this is still the third best result in the last decade. In comparison with Germany’s other top cities, the result places Frankfurt in second place, level with Munich and behind Berlin. In its analysis, Savills arrives at a total investment volume of €2.9 billion in Frankfurt’s commercial real estate investment market, equivalent to a year-on-year decline of 29%. As a share of total investment, office accounted for 80 %, followed by hotel (11.5%), retail (2.5%) and logistic (1.5%).
Retailers want more space
According to a new study of more than 100 retailers and restaurateurs, “Tenants in Focus 2016/17 – Rethinking Retail Real Estate”, published by ILG in collaboration with Berlin Hyp and BBE, 68.9% of respondents are looking to increase the number of sites they operate. This was reported by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 27.10.2016. In comparison with 2014, this means that their desire to expand their number of locations has slightly decreased (2014: 72.3%). The number of retailers and restaurateurs who said they actually want to cut the size of their store networks rose by a single percentage point, from 12.6% to 13.6%. When considering new locations, most tenants prefer sites with high levels of retail agglomeration, only food and grocery retailers are looking for more individual locations. 90% of the survey’s participants admitted that multi-channel services, such as Click & Collect, are of interest. Shopping centre tenants highlighted the importance of joint marketing campaigns and are prepared to contribute financially to them. The retailers’ preferred anchor tenants are major food and grocery chains, followed by health and beauty and consumer electronics retailers.
New record in transaction market for care facilities
The year 2016 will go down in history as a year of superlatives for German care facilities, wrote the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 27.10.2016. Forecasts for the full year 2016 envision a transaction volume of €3 billion. In the first three quarters of 2016, investment of around €2.4 billion in care facilities contributed 7% to the total investment volume in Germany’s commercial real estate market. Such a high share of investment should, however, be viewed as an exception, said CBRE’s Jan Linsin. Purchase prices for nursing care homes are much higher than just two years ago, explained Dr. Michael Held from Terragon. This means that the development of new care homes is once again an attractive proposition, especially as they can be developed at both established locations and on sites unsuited for the construction of apartment buildings. Opinions differ on the scale of future demand for care home facilities, with experts suggesting between 150 and 400 developments would be needed per year. One thing they do agree on is that there is currently a shortfall in new construction.
Shortage of logistics space in Munich
Figures compiled by CBRE show that roughly 168,000 square metres of logistic and light industrial space were leased in Munich over the first nine months of 2016, revealed the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 27.10.2016. If the 27,000 square metres of take-up attributable to owner-occupiers is included, the figure rises to a total of 195,000 square metres. This is 17% more than the previous year and the best nine-month result for five years. High levels of demand has for the first time led logistic companies to look to the city’s less popular western districts. These outlying western districts saw 54,000 square metres of take up, with a further 54,000 square metres centred on traditional logistic locations in northern Munich. In the city’s eastern periphery, 38,000 sqm of logistic space was leased, with just 7,000 square metres of take up in southern Munich. Despite a shortage of available space in central districts, take up still managed to total 42,000 square metres. There was no change in the shortage of new construction activity. Even speculative project developments only managed to deliver short-term relief. As a result, more than 60% of new leases were agreed for existing logistic space, with newbuilds accounting for 75,000 sqm. For the year as a whole, CBRE expects take-up in the sector to break through the 250,000 square metre barrier. The peak rent remained stable at €6.75/sqm, despite the scarcity of available space. Competition for logistic space is set to intensify, especially as a result of sustained growth in the online retail sector, which should continue to drive rents and purchase prices higher.
GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for Prague
Prague, capital of the Czech Republic, is the country’s economic and administrative capital. Historically, the region’s economy was driven by industry and trade. Prague has been posting one of the best economic growth performances in all of Central and Eastern Europe. Since the nineties, it has benefited from a higher level of foreign direct investment than any other Eastern European metropolitan region. Furthermore, several international companies have located here. The infrastructure is very good. Several European cities are easily accessible via existing air, train and surface road connections. Prague’s five universities and hence its good research infrastructure are another important location factor. All these competitive advantages support an expectation that Prague will register sustainably solid economic development.
Feri rates Prague as a business location “B+”, which is downgraded to the 3rd quarter 2015. It translates into “above average potential, below average risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 21st in the comparison of European Metropolises.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Prague “C”, which is unchanged compared to the 3rd quarter 2015. The city ranks 20th among office locations of European Metropolises. Feri awards the office top locations “C” and the side locations “C”
Prague’s office market with its size of more than 3.6 million square meters is the largest market of the Czech Republic and has established as a European office location in recent years. Main demand comes from the sector of financial services and the insurance industry, and recently also from manufacturing and pharmaceutics. The share of modern office stock amounts to 70 %. Usually, rents are paid in the euro currency and rents are comparable cheap. Risks are seen in an average volatility and transparency as well as in a relatively low fungibility.
The unfavorable development of rental prices has bottomed out in 2012 (high ‘incentives’ restricted the downturn). But ´since 2013, the office rents are shrinking again, due to the recent recession and the weak labor market in the Czech Republic. Although construction activity is decreasing continuously since the crisis, the office vacancy rate is increasing demand-driven further and reached its peak in 2015. A large amount of additional completions is not very likely during the next two or three years. The creation of new office jobs and as a result of this expanding demand for additional office space will not pick up before mid 2016. Against this background, rental growth remains subdued during this year, reaching trend growth rates only in the advanced forecast period.
Rental yields at the Prague office investment market increased by almost 200 basispoints due to the financial crisis. Mainly because of the recent economic downturn in the Czech Republic and Europe since 2011, the compression of rental yields of around 100 basis points since then was relatively modest. Therefore, we still see potential for a further yield shift in the coming years. The ongoing adjustment of the imbalances in the occupier-market will form the expectations of investors positively in this sense. Out of this environment an attractive average total return of around 8% per year can be derived for the next few years.
In this euphoric phase of transformation before the financial crisis, prices for office properties primarily increased by an exaggerated, fundamentally not justified, yield-compression. The reasons for this development were favorable credit terms, euphoric expectations in terms of economic development and a nearing entry to the euro currency. This effect turned into the opposite during the crisis. A risen uncertainty led to increases of rental yields. Since 2010, a moderate normalization takes place. Investor interest has improved markedly only since 2014. The market yield is currently around 30 basis points below the estimated FERI “fair-value” yield of 6.4%, which shows only a slight overvaluation.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of European Metropolises regarding retail real estate Prague placed 21st with a rating result of “B+”, which is unchanged compared to the 3rd quarter 2015. Feri awards the retail top locations “B+” and the side locations “C”.
Prague is the Czech Republic’s main shopping city, and several international retailers have made it their point of entry to the Czech market. The inner city’s supply of retail space cannot be expanded, and this limited supply almost assures an excess demand situation with focus on top retail space for example at “Wenceslas square” or in the highly frequented “Na Príkope”. In consequence, this situation led to slightly rising retail rents in top locations. Demand that can’t be met in the city center tends to be accommodated at peripheral shopping centers, a pattern that is rather disadvantageous for more traditional secondary retail locations. Although short-term fluctuations depend on cyclical economic conditions, rents for both top and secondary retail locations in Prague are expected to rise moderately during the years to come.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Prague placed 24th among European Metropolises with a rating result of “B”, unchanged compared to the 3rd quarter 2015.
Private rentals still represent just a small part of the Czech Republic’s residential market, but they are a steadily growing segment. Amid high demand for apartments along with very short supply, rents were very high prior to 2009. Subsequently, expanded supply and lower demand from foreign firms seeking lodgings for their employees undercut rents, which fell sharply. Another relevant market development is growing quality-consciousness, including greater selectivity about location and a rising preference for well-equipped units. In recent years, a stable pattern of rising rents became established and is expected in the medium to long term. A rising total number of households, with an increasing share of one- and two-person households, will support this trend.
The Czech Republic’s market for the purchase of residential property, like its residential rental market, was privatized at the beginning of the nineties, so it is still very young. Prices vary according to location and the equipment and amenities included with a property, but for the most part they have increased during past years. The greatest demand is for renovated condominiums in existing buildings in the inner city; in this segment a demand surplus exists. Most demand comes from foreign investors. Houses and condominiums in a more rural setting are also well sought after, but in this segment most of the demand comes from the native Czech population. In the coming years, although not until the anticipated economic recovery materializes, one can expect rising sale prices in all segments of Prague’s residential real estate market.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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