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Expo Real 2016 – Topics, people, companies
One of the major topics at this year’s Expo Real was the shortage of real estate coming to market, especially in the residential sector. This was picked up on by DIE WELT on 05.10.2016. Of the 1,764 exhibitors (roughly 3 % more than last year), many were looking to establish new contacts and buying opportunities. A survey from the Cologne-based Institute of Economic Research (IW) revealed that 90% of investors expect demand for real estate in Germany’s major cities to carry on increasing. In the first eight months of this year, €7.2 billion was invested in housing in deals involving fifty or more units. This represents a decline of 61% in comparison with the same prior year period. “The short supply of residential property portfolios is here to stay,” said Konstantin Lüttger from CBRE. According to the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 06.10.2016, Bavaria’s State Construction Secretary, Florian Pronold of the SPD, used his appearance at Expo Real to unveil a new forecast from the federal government showing that 300,000 building permits for new apartments should have been approved by the end of this year. This means that government officials fully expect 2015’s record total to be matched, if not beaten. New EU and German guidelines on credit agreements for property purchases are another hot industry topic, reported the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG in its special Expo edition on 05.10.2016. Germany already has the lowest mortgage default rates in Europe. As a result, it really wasn’t necessity to tighten up loan approval regulations. The IVD’s Hans-Joachim Beck is “highly optimistic” that legislators will make use of the opportunities they have to amend the regulations, particularly as many parliamentarians have already said that they want to make corrections. The number of transactions involving residential and commercial real estate are still lagging behind the volumes seen in autumn 2015, reported DIE WELT on 05.10.2016. According to Colliers International, transactions involving commercial real estate in the first nine months of the year totalled €32.4 billion, which is 15% lower than during the same prior year period. On 05.10.2016, in a special Expo Real edition, the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG cautioned that the situation is particularly difficult in Munich’s office market. According toCBRE’s Rainer Knapek, around 170,000 sqm metres of office space has been newly let in Munich this year, 10 % more than last year. But the total could have been higher, if the space had been available. Which is why Munich’s city planners have put together a plan to develop a minimum of 35 hectares of land. Torsten C. Wesch from Redos, who on Tuesday took part in a discussion with Joachim Stumpf of BBE, Alexander Hoffmann from IPH and ECE’s Henrie W. Kötter, spoke to the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG about investments in large-scale retail real estate, an interview that was published in the paper’s special Expo Real edition on 04.10.2016. In Wesch’s opinion, retail parks that can benefit most from new investment are not necessarily only located in major cities. He observed that size of a retail park is a much more important criterion, as this is the key factor in determining the scope of a park’s catchment area. In major cities, there is often some degree of overlap between catchment areas. In its special Expo Real edition on 06.10.2016, the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on a new ZIA and EY Real Estate study into the digitalisation of the real estate industry, joined by the HANDELSBLATT on 06.10. 2016 and DIE IMMOBILIE online on 07.10.2016. According to the study, digitalisation is already being adopted across the entire real estate industry, and is on the agenda for 90% of traditional real estate companies. Nevertheless, the companies are only investing 5.5% of annual revues in digital technologies. Among PropTech companies, i.e. real estate start-ups, the figure is just under 43%. “The real estate industry has yet to fully appreciate the relevance of increased digitalisation to its business,” said Christian Schulz-Wulkow from EY Real Estate. “It’s true, the classic real estate industry has a tendency towards conservatism,” admitted CBRE’s Alexander von Erdély. Perhaps the real estate industry has not yet fully embraced digitalisation because it still seems so distant. A third of the survey’s respondents said that they do not believe that their core business is in any way under threat from the digital transition or PropTech companies. “This may be testament to the high levels of self-confidence within the industry – but it may also be a sign that too many companies have a false sense of security,” said Schulz-Wulkow. The real estate sector sees the greatest potential in data, and not just on property listing portals. For example, the real estate services company CBRE has developed a tool that allows investors to fine-tune their search for commercial properties, based on a selection of key data. The impact of Brexit on Germany’s real estate industry was addressed in the HANDELSBLATT on 06.10.2016. Elation has given way to disappointment. JLL’s Frank Porsche admitted that there is no evidence so far that Frankfurt’s office market will benefit from Brexit. Christian Schultz-Wulkow from EY Real Estate hopes that negotiations will proceed in an orderly fashion and with a substantial degree of caution. He warned that a bitter divorce would only do damage to Germany, Great Britain and the EU as a whole. On 06.10.2016, the HANDELSBLATT reported on the growing scarcity of office space on the back of strong economic growth in Germany. CBRE revealed that office vacancies in Germany’s five biggest office centres, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich, are down by 15% over the last twelve months. The shortage of office space is not just the result of increased demand, it has also been exacerbated by the conversion of office properties into hotels and housing. These conversions have cut the supply of office space in the five largest markets by an average of 150,000 sqm per year, reported Andreas Völker from BNP Paribas RE-Holding. Völker also cautioned that it is still to early to say whether Britain’s exit from the EU will give a boost to Frankfurt’s office market, or not. CBRE Germany’s Carsten Ape believes that, “at the end of 2017, or early in 2018, the market will pick up. Lots of banks are exploring their options right now, but at that point at the latest, they will be signing leases.”
Record transactions in the nursing care sector
In its 04.10.2016 online edition, the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG revealed that CBRE has registered more real estate transactions involving nursing care facilities in 2016 than in any other year on record. In the first three quarters of the year, CBRE reported transactions worth some €2.4 billion. By the close of the year, the total could well rise to €3 billion, said Jan Linsin from CBRE. For 2017, CBRE predicts a return to a significantly lower volume of transactions. It is striking that nursing care facilities account for 7% of all of the commercial property transactions registered by CBRE this year, which total €32.7 billion.
Tenants aren’t making use of the rental brake
Only six lawsuits have so far been launched against potential breaches of Germany’s Mietpreisbremse rent control regulations, and only one of those was successful. The FAZ (on 01.10.2016), SPIEGEL ONLINE (on 06.10.2016), and the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG (on 07.10.2016) all described Germany’s current rent control legislation as ineffective and insignificant. Such conclusions have also been drawn by every study that has thus far investigated the law’s impact. And now the Federal Ministry of Justice has initiated its own inquiry. Depending on the inquiry’s findings, the SPD has announced that it plans to discuss legislative amendments, whereas the CDU has so far dismissed talk of tightening up the regulations.
Shortages of commercial space in the Ruhr metropolitan region
As revealed by the WELT AM SONNTAG on 02.10.2016, a new bulwiengesa study has shown that B-cities in the Ruhr region are benefitting from sustained low interest rates. In the “Ruhr metropolitan region” (Bochum, Bottrop, Dortmund, Duisburg, Essen, Gelsenkirchen, Hagen, Hamm, Herne, Mülheim an der Ruhr and Oberhausen, as well as the municipal districts of Ennepe-Ruhr-Kreis, Recklinghausen, Unna and Wesel), some €2.05 billion was invested in commercial real estate in 2015, 14% more than in 2014. The lion’s share of deals involved retail real estate, which accounted for 44.7% of invested capital (€915 million). Just 27% of investment (roughly €570 million) flowed into the office sector. The 22% share taken by logistic real estate (€450 million) was the highest since 2011. Nevertheless, in comparison to other German B-cities and less well-populated A-cities, transaction volumes and market dynamism in the Ruhr metropolitan region have so far been comparatively disappointing. This is largely because would-be buyers find it difficult to source structured data and reliable performance indicators. The shortage of real estate product has also proven to be something of a problem. 2015’s comparatively strong performance owes a lot to a number of large-scale portfolio deals involving a mix of properties, including some from across the Ruhr region. There were also a number of targeted individual acquisitions in the supermarket, retail park and office sectors. These included a number of refurbishment objects with potential for repositioning, which have become particularly attractive given the shortage of modern office space in every district along the Ruhr River. Rates in most of the region’s cities have fallen below 6%, and in Duisburg as low as 1.9%. Low rental prices for office space (peaking at €14/sqm, averaging €7.60/sqm) mean that new commercial real estate developments are a risky proposition. The greatest potential for property price growth is primarily found in the residential sector.
Hesse & Baden-Württemberg push for mortgage credit reform
The state governments in Wiesbaden and Stuttgart announced that they want to vote on launching a parliamentary initiative to reform mortgage application and approval guidelines when their state parliaments convene on 04.10.2016. This was reported by the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 01.10.2016 and the FAZ on 04.10.2016. In the eyes of both governments, the adoption of the EU’s mortgage credit directive into German law has made it too difficult for homebuyers to obtain financing for their real estate purchases, a fact that is demonstrated by the fall in banks’ mortgage lending. Their proposed draft amendment is to be presented to Germany’s federal parliament on 14.10.2016. They argue that the federal government in Berlin went far beyond the spirit and letter of the original EU directive. They point out that it is currently legally possible that existing homeowners could be forced out of their homes as a result of the way the directive has been applied in Germany. Older Germans who want to take out a mortgage to finance the age-appropriate refurbishment of their apartments or homes currently have almost no chance of getting a loan approved.
Prices for student housing keep on rising
According to an analysis carried out by the Moses Mendelssohn Institute and the apartment listing portal WG-Gesucht.de, rental prices for a room in a shared apartment in one of the Germany university towns or cities with more than 5,000 students have risen significantly at the start of the new winter semester, increasing from €300 to €349 per month. The analysis was covered by DIE WELT on 05.10.2016 and the FAZ on 07.10.2016. The most expensive rooms in shared student apartments are in Munich (€560), followed by Frankfurt (€460), Hamburg (€430), Stuttgart (€425) and Berlin (€420). Other towns and cities that have seen substantial rental price increases recently include Freiburg, Darmstadt, Constance and Düsseldorf. Of the 91 university towns and cities analysed for the report, it was only in Bielefeld, Hanover, Kaiserslautern, Kassel, Münster, Osnabrück and Würzburg that students will find it slightly easier to find accommodation this year than last.
Premium real estate market nears saturation, exurbs become more interesting
It will soon become more difficult for developers and owners of high-end real estate to find buyers or tenants for luxury apartments in prime locations in Germany’s largest cities, reported DIE WELT on 01.10.2016. Thanks to the low interest rate climate, there is often little difference in cost for affluent households between paying rent and repaying a mortgage. The margins for developers have traditionally been much higher in the premium residential segment. “Whereas previously peripheral districts have largely been ignored, investors are now turning their focus increasingly to the areas around the biggest cities,” said Samira Akhlaghi from CD Deutsche Eigenheim. In response to ever-increasing property and rental prices, more and more families are moving to the suburbs and exurbs, a trend confirmed by the latest figures from the Federal Office of Statistics and state statistical agencies. “It is typically professional, affluent households, i.e. couples in their 40s with children, who are increasingly buying houses in the suburbs,” explained Michael Stüber from CD Deutsche Eigenheim. The biggest beneficiaries are small towns and communities within easy commuting distance of metropolitan centres.
Office market boosted by strong demand
Office properties are among the best investment objects on Germany’s real estate market, reported DIE WELT on 01.10.2016. According to a new CBRE study, roughly €7.6 billion was invested in the office sector during H1 2016, which represents 42% of total investment in commercial real estate. The positive market environment and employment gains in the country’s service sector economy have led to an upswing in demand. “The rental markets in Germany’s five largest office centres, Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich, remain highly dynamic. In H1 of this year, these five cities registered office space take-up of around 1.5 million square metres, which is almost 14% higher than the same period last year,” said CBRE’s Carsten Ape. In pan-European comparison, Germany is the second largest investment market after Great Britain, and clearly benefits from its reputation as one of the safest and most stable investment havens in the world, said Fabian Klein from CBRE.
Not enough new office space in Berlin
As reported by the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG on 07.10.2016, demand for office space in Berlin is currently running higher than ever, and not enough new space is being developed. A new bulwiengesa study, “Market Forecast 2020 – Berlin’s Future Office Users,” details how super-low vacancy rates of 3.5%, historically low office space completion rates and strong growth in office employment will all combine to deliver above-average rental price growth in the sector. The strong and sustained demand is credited to the city’s structural economic evolution over the past five to ten years, combined with a rise in Berlin’s popularity worldwide. High tourist volumes, Berlin’s cultural attractiveness and increased domestic and international migration have all contributed to economic stability in Germany’s capital. If it wants to satisfy demand, attract would-be tenants in the long-term and encourage continued employment growth, Berlin will need to approve moderately denser urban development and strengthen its IT infrastructure. The red tape surrounding construction permit approval processes will also need to be cut.
Demand continues to rise in Frankfurt
On 02.10.2016, NZZ AM SONNTAG reported online that Frankfurt’s residential real estate market is experiencing particularly strong growth. Frankfurt is not only benefitting from the generally favourable conditions that apply to all of Germany’s Top Seven cities, it also profits from its status as a global financial centre. With 215 banks and insurance companies, Frankfurt generates a per capita GDP that is more than twice as high as Hesse’s state average. “Frankfurt’s residential market is without a doubt one of the most highly contested markets in the whole of Germany.” said Manfred Binsfeld from Feri Euro Rating, who identified strong levels of inward migration as one of the major drivers of housing competition. The real estate industry is responding and there are a significant number of new residential developments currently under construction. One of the most prestigious is the “Grand Tower,” which is being developed by Zabel Property and includes 400 high-end apartments, a residents’ sun deck at 145 metres above street-level, and a range of supplementary services.
Bavaria supports initiative to reform mortgage credit regulations
On 12.10.2016, the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG revealed that authorities in the state of Bavaria have will support the parliamentary initiative launched by the states of Hesse and Baden-Württemberg on 14.10.2016, which calls for amendments to recently introduced mortgage credit regulations. With their initiative, the federal states hope to once again make it easier for would-be borrowers to secure financing for their property purchases. Their primary aim is to legally define the degree of “probability” with which a borrower will be able to meet their mortgage commitments, remove any obligation to carry out second credit and income checks when borrowers look to arrange follow-up financing, and to introduce exceptions to the legislation to allow properties to be remodelled for older residents.
Ultra-low interest rates for real estate in Germany
Germany’s banks are charging lower levels of interest when they finance economically sound real estate investments than banks in almost every other European country, revealed the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 08.10.2016. According to a survey of almost 100 banks across Europe who provide real estate loans, carried out by KPMG between May and July 2016, the hallmarks of Germany’s credit market are robust economic fundamentals, positive payment behaviour on the part of customers and a high degree of strategic importance for banks. In the office and retail real estate sectors, the interest premium above the three-month EURIBOR rate stands at around 1.5%. Only Sweden and Belgium report similarly attractive conditions. And this is not all that the German market has to offer: Banks have a great strategic interest in financing real estate in Germany, and the default rate is incredibly low. 94% of loans are classified as “intact”. Only two European countries have a lower proportion of loans at risk of default, Great Britain and Sweden.
Scorecard for federal states’ property transfer tax autonomy
Ten years ago, on September 1, Germany’s federal states were handed powers to determine their own property transfer tax rate. To mark this anniversary, the October edition of IVV, IMMOBILIEN VERMIETEN & VERWALTEN examined the country’s property transfer tax rates and revealed that, with the exception of Saxony and Bavaria, who have frozen rates at 3.5%, the remaining 14 states have all increased their rates, in many cases substantially. Among the highest tax rates are levied in Berlin and Hesse, at 6 %. According to the taxpayers’ federation, Bund der Steuerzahler (BdST), the national average has risen to 5.3%, creating potential annual tax receipts of some €12.3 billion. The BdST criticises the states for raising tax rates so high, and so often, claiming that this represents a serious obstacle to would-be homeowners. On 14.10.2016, the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG reported on plans to reform Germany’s property transfer tax. One of the leading early proposals, referred to as the “Hesse model,” would see property transfer tax assessments based on a combination of land values and the value of any buildings occupying the land, whereby the value of a building would be determined by its type, fittings, construction cost and age. Criticism has come from all sides: Bavaria’s Finance Minister, Markus Söder (CSU), has warned that such a model would see skyrocketing costs for Bavaria’s homebuyers and tenants, and that tenants would be most severely affected as landlords are able to pass the cost of the tax on to their tenants. Hamburg’s Senator for Finance, Peter Tschentscher (SPD), reckons that the “Hesse model” would lead to a tenfold increase in property values along the Elbe River. The German Tenants’ Federation (DMB) and Nature and Biodiversity Conservation Union (Nabu) have been equally passionate in their criticism.
Eastern Germany’s regions are becoming more and more attractive
According to TAG Immobilien’s “Eastern Germany Housing Market Report”, average purchase prices for residential property in Eastern Germany’s cities increased substantially between 2011 and 2016, rising by 45% in Dresden and 43% in Weimar. The market report was the subject of an article in DIE WELT on 13.10.2016. Such rates of price growth are not only reported in the region’s large cities, but also in medium-sized towns and cities. Housing price inflation in the relatively small university town of Freiberg, for example, totalled 39%, which matches the rate of growth registered in Potsdam. In Strausberg, which has 26,000 inhabitants and boasts a regular, direct rail link to Berlin advertised rents have surged by 30% in five years, in Nauen by 28 % and in Eberswalde by 22 %. In eleven localities in Eastern Germany, asking rents have increased by more than 30% in five years. According to Wüest & Partner, who co-authored the report with TAG, these increases are driven by a rise in the number of city-dwellers who are moving to the suburbs and exurbs around the region’s large cities. At the same time, larger magnet cities, such as Leipzig, continue to attract large numbers of new residents, including from overseas, and Eastern Germany’s university towns and cities are becoming ever more attractive. Increases in both rental and property purchase prices point to these developments being based on strong economic fundamentals, rather than speculation. TAG believes that positive employment and household income growth (e.g. in Chemnitz, which saw rises of almost 15% within five years) mean that these trends are sustainable. Combined with the current pressure on gross yields in Germany’s top real estate centres, it is no surprise that a growing number of investors are exploring their options in Eastern Germany. In Jena or Erfurt, for example, yields of 6.5% can be achieved, and in 18 of the regions medium-sized towns and cities, yields remain over 7 %.
GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for Magdeburg
Magdeburg is located near major European transport routes, in particular the Mittellandkanal and Elbe River. Following severe structural adjustment, Magdeburg has seen the industrial sector share of its regional production drop below the German average. The heavy machinery industry, in particular, retrenched heavily, losing much of its former importance. Nevertheless, Magdeburg is still a significant industrial location, focused largely on engineering and metal processing. Trade and transport, due to the presence of the inland harbor, play important roles in regional economic activity, and the volume of goods handled has risen in the wake of EU enlargement. However, the sector of business services is not big enough to generate significant growth potential; this sector’s share of regional production is below average. Magdeburg’s economic restructuring process is still incomplete, and the share of high-growth enterprise segments is still too small.
Feri rates Magdeburg as a business location “C”, which is upgraded to the 2nd quarter 2015. It translates into “average potential, average risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 17th in the comparison of German B-Centers.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Magdeburg “C”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2015. The city ranks 27th among office locations of German B-Centers. Feri awards the office top locations “C” and the side locations “C”
In a pattern comparable to that in the region’s residential market as well as its retail market, Magdeburg’s office market also still suffers from after-effects of an illconceived building boom at the beginning of the 1990s. Very loose supply and weak demand have combined to produce a high vacancy rate. This development is now reversing; the vacancy rate is now under 10% and will continue to decrease. Nonetheless, the development of office rents in Magdeburg is projected to stay persistently very weak.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of German B-Centers regarding retail real estate Magdeburg placed 29th with a rating result of “D-“, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2015. Feri awards the retail top locations “D-” and the side locations “D-“.
A building boom at the beginning of the 1990s, greatly expanded the supply of retail space. In fact, Magdeburg’s total retail floor area more than quintupled during this expansion frenzy. In the inner city, the “Allee-Center” and “City-Carree” shopping centers draw off purchasing power from other inner city retail areas. Moreover, large shopping complexes in the region’s periphery – mainly the “Florapark” (72,000 sq m), “Boerdepark” (62,000 sq m), and “Elbpark” – pose a major competitive challenge for shops in Magdeburg’s inner city, Nevertheless, inner city retail locations are showing some ability to attract a rising number of buyers from the town and surrounding areas. In the coming years, weak development of retail rents is expected in Magdeburg, for both top and secondary locations.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Magdeburg placed 30th among German B-Centers with a rating result of “D”, downgraded to the 2nd quarter 2015.
The downswing in rents in the 1990s was due to excessive building and renovation activity along with strong outmigration. Older dwelling units, many of them in large apartment blocks, remain a prominent component of the lingering oversupply, but partial removal of such apartment stock, mostly consisting of dilapidated units that were barely rentable, is underway. Amid a still-large supply, qualitative characteristics are the key criteria to consider in regards to particular objects on the rental housing market. In coming years, Magdeburg’s apartment market should continue to stabilize. Rising rents are projected for both new and existing dwelling units, provided they are well-equipped and attractively located.
On Magdeburg’s residential property sales market, significant excess supply remains a burden. Most of this excess supply consists of properties that are not marketable anymore. Demand for condominiums is weak because price levels for houses in Magdeburg, as well as in surrounding areas, are very low. However, demand for houses in Magdeburg is weak, too.
The outlook for the development of prices on Magdeburg’s market for the purchase of residential property is weak. With further out-migration from the region anticipated, the demographic situation will also hinder the upcoming price performance.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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