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EU Mortgage Credit Directive I: Objections from CDU/CSU
As reported by the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 07.09.2016, calls from the government’s coalition partners to fine tune the way the EU mortgage credit directive has been implemented in Germany are growing ever louder. On Tuesday, the CSU politician Hans Michelbach announced that CDU/CSU finance experts have asked Justice Minister Heiko Maas (SPD) to explain recent decreases in mortgage lending. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) has also admitted that a reform may be required. Mortgage lending totalled €194 billion in Germany last year, a rise of 17 per cent in comparison with the previous year, revealed the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG and DIE WELT on 06.09.2016, and the FAZ on 08.09.2016. In contrast, mortgage lending is significantly down this year and the Association of German Savings Banks (Deutsche Sparkassen- und Giroverband) reported a fall of 8.9 per cent in the first six months of this year, revealed DIE WELT on 06.09.2016.
EU Mortgage Credit Directive II: Credit Unions and Savings Banks versus the Bundesbank
As the WELT AM SONNTAG wrote on 11.09.2016, homeownership has slipped further out of reach for average earners. Property prices keep on rising, the costs associated with buying a home keep on increasing and the regulations surrounding mortgage lending are no so stringent that many Germans have effectively been excluded from the property market. And this is despite the fact that a clear majority of Germans would love nothing more than to own their own homes. While mortgages themselves are cheaper than ever before, everything else has become more expensive. Only relatively wealthy households can now afford to own property. In the view of Germany’s Credit Unions and Savings Banks, the new EU mortgage credit directive means that it is now impossible for lower-income households or pensioners to take out a mortgage. Germany’s Bundesbank, quoted by FAZ.NET on 11.09.2016, takes a very different view and dismisses claims that there has been a collapse in mortgage lending across the country’s banking sector. According to bank balance sheet statistics, the Bundesbank points to a rise in mortgage lending of almost 4 per cent over the previous twelve months.
Finance ministers discuss reform of property transfer taxes
On 08.09.2016 and 09.09.2016, the FAZ and the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG reported on the latest meeting of Federal State Finance Ministers on 08.09.2016, during which Hesse’s Finance Minister, Thomas Schäfer (CDU), led discussions on reform of property transfer taxes. By November, the ministers hope to have agreed on a method to prevent companies engaging in large-scale property acquisitions via share deals. Currently, property transfer taxes only apply when at least 95 per cent of the ownership of real property changes hands, which means that the tax can be avoided when a deal involves shares rather than real property. Over the last few years, Germany’s federal states have increased their property transfer taxes from 3.5 per cent to as much as 6.5 per cent.
Borrowers profit from improved loan conditions
Banks are increasingly willing to make concessions on their standard lending conditions during mortgage approval procedures, revealed the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 15.09.2016. This is a direct result of intense competition between lenders, combined with the low interest rate policies of the European Central Bank (ECB). Rather than having to make penalty payments, banks are choosing to increase their lending volumes, even at less profitable conditions. Over the last few years, banks have often compromised on their credit profit margins and LTV requirements. An IREBS survey recently revealed that banks’ net margins on mortgage lending fell by a further ten basis points during 2015, to an average of 118 basis points. The surveyed banks admitted that they expect to see a similar fall this year. The market has become so competitive that banks have been forced to amend the financial covenants they normally include in their credit agreements with major borrowers. In some cases, covenants have been removed entirely from credit agreements for prime real estate. However, these are exceptional cases in a relatively small market segment.
Uncertainty surrounds draft Climate Protection Plan 2050
In its 15.09.2016 edition, the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported that amendments to the draft of the German government’s Climate Protection Plan 2050 have done nothing to improve the clarity of the proposed legislation. For example, there is now no mention of a specified statutory annual limit for the number of kilowatt hours per square metre a residential building will be allowed to consume. A cut-off date for the financial programme to support the exchange of fossil-fuel heating equipment has also been removed from the latest draft. The amended version of the plan met with immediate criticism from ZIA, which described the new conditions as mere dilutions of older proposals. According to ZIA, any objectives and measures first need to be formulated in collaboration with the real estate industry. “The so-called renovation roadmap is a massive state intervention in the property right of individuals and companies,” said ZIA President Andreas Mattner.
Rural areas start to rise in popularity
On 13.09.2016, ZEIT ONLINE reported on the 2016 Housing and Property Report published by BBSR. The study reveals that there are currently more than two million vacant apartments in Germany. Rural areas are the most affected by outward migration and vacancies. On 16.09.2016, the FAZ reported on a further aspect of the study, highlighting the fact that property prices in big cities and university towns are set to rise further as demand shows no signs of letting up. DIE WELT revealed on 14.09.2016 that surprisingly high levels of immigration are the main driver of continued property price increases. According to the BBSR report, almost two million more people arrived in Germany between 2010 and 2014 than left the country. Germany’s biggest cities attracted the largest numbers of foreign and domestic migrants. This has put so much pressure on housing markets that the flow of migration has finally reached a turning point. “Given the high price of building land in major cities, a growing number of developers are turning to rural areas in search of more affordable alternatives,” said Harald Herrmann from BBSR. Expert analysis has shown that rural areas around major cities registered above-average growth in building permit approvals in H1 2016. This is largely the result of a lack of new developments in urban areas.
Digital economy needs more space
According to a new BNP Paribas Real Estate study, Germany’s digital economy, dominated by SMEs, is now the country’s third largest employer, behind the retail and high-technology service sectors. As a result, the space requirements of the digital economy in Germany’s Top Six cities has nearly doubled, reported DIE WELT on 13.09.2016. In contrast to the 392,000 sqm required by the sector across Germany in 2013, demand had risen to 625,000 sqm by the end of 2015 (+60 per cent). In absolute terms, Berlin has seen the most substantial growth in demand, rising from 81,500 sqm to 244,000 sqm in the same period. Berlin accounted for 39 per cent (2013: 21 per cent) of total take-up in Germany. In these two years alone, 436 new companies were founded in the digital sector in the German capital.
Berlin’s SPD is planning tax surcharges for foreign investors
The governing mayor of Berlin, Michael Müller and Finance Senator, Matthias Kollatz-Ahnen (both SPD), are planning a drastic increase in real estate taxes, in particular for foreign investors, reported the BERLINER ZEITUNG on 11.09.2016. The plans were revealed in a previously unpublished SPD white paper, which was presented to Berlin’s senate shortly before the upcoming municipal elections. The white paper proposes “special taxes against the large-scale acquisition of rental housing by foreign investors” in order to prevent excessive speculation in the housing market. In addition, the SPD wants to clamp down on share deals, claiming that this will help to combat real estate investors’ attempted tax avoidance. “Significantly higher” taxes are also proposed for second homes that are kept empty for more than six months per year. The SPD would use any extra tax revenues generated by these new measures to develop new housing.
Berlin’s condominium market enjoys further growth
Registering growth of 28 per cent in comparison with the previous year, the transaction market for condominiums in Berlin in 2015 broke the previous record of 23,100 unit sales from 2013 by a wide margin. This was revealed by the 2016 Accentro Homeownership Report, which was the subject of a BERLINER MORGENPOST online report on 13.09 2016. Condominium sales revenues grew even more rapidly, climbing by 40.4 per cent to €5.2 billion. “This is by far the fastest growth rate in any of Germany’s Top Seven cities,” said Accentro’s Jacopo Mingazzini. The Accentro Homeownership Report analysed and compared data from Land Valuation Committees in 82 of Germany’s biggest condominium markets for 2015. Strong demand has pushed the average condominium sale price up to €214,346 (+9.59 per cent) in Berlin. Berlin’s prices may be higher than the national average (€211,371), but they are still 37.5 per cent lower than in Germany’s next four biggest cities, Hamburg, Munich, Cologne and Frankfurt am Main. In total, reported the FAZ on 16.09.2016, 135,000 condominium sales were recorded in the 82 towns and cities. That is 5 per cent more than during the previous year. As DIE WELT reported on 14.09.2016, Jacopo Mingazzini expects the figure to climb again this year. Mingazzini describes Berlin as the hotspot for condominium sales. Some 24,000 were sold in the city in 2015, almost two-and-a-half times the number of units that were sold in Munich. “Berlin has experienced incredible growth, especially in the market for newly developed condominiums,” said Mingazzini. Between 2009 and 2015, annual sales of newbuild condominiums surged from 800 to 5200.
Hamburg has lots to offer real estate investors
On 05.09.2016, the HANDELSBLATT online revealed that Hamburg offers real estate investors a high level of security, especially in districts close to the city’s centre. The vacancy rate in the residential sector is a mere 0.7 per cent. A recent analysis published by Dr. Lübke & Kelber forecasts that the city’s population will reach 1.06 million by 2025, equivalent to growth of 7.5 per cent in comparison with 2012. According to Dr. Lübke & Kelber , the city’s condominium market will continue to be dominated by local buyers. “Alongside Munich, Hamburg has the largest proportion of local buyers, both as investors and owner-occupiers,” said CBRE’s Michael Schlatterer. Figures released by CBRE show that the housing cost burden in Hamburg stands at 32 per cent, which is low in comparison with Munich (37.5 per cent) and offers scope for further growth. On 03.09.2016, the HAMBURGER ABENDBLATT reported on Dr. Lübke & Kelber’s 2016 Risk/Return Ranking, which concluded that the property yields of 3.4 per cent in Hamburg are low in comparison with other cities in northern Germany. “The supply of residential real estate is extremely limited and demand is incredibly high, which has driven prices ever higher and yields ever lower,” said Boris Groth from Dr. Lübke & Kelber. Nevertheless, Hamburg has among the lowest levels of investment risk.
More and more crowd-investing platforms, but still no real breakthrough
An article in the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 08.09.2016 focussed on the rising number of real estate projects that are being financed with crowd-investing. Nevertheless, crowd-investing is still to make a real breakthrough in the real estate industry. This is largely because crowd-investing platforms tend to offer a single product: subordinated loans. The future, believes Hans Peter Trampe of Dr. Klein, lies in bearer bonds, although these only really make economic sense in larger volumes as the costs associated with marketing and placement are significantly higher. Bonds are more flexible, and securitisation in relation to senior bank financing is easier to arrange. Peter Axmann from HSH Nordbank outlined his expectations in a guest article in the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 08.09.2016. He believes that crowdfunding and crowd-investing will never fulfil more than a minor role within the world of real estate financing. Representing just 0.1 per cent of current financing volumes, he dismisses them as factually irrelevant. If the sector is to emerge from its current obscurity, regulation is essential. Michael Stephan of iFunded used his commentary in the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 08.09.2016 to warn people not to underestimate just how dynamic the market is. He pointed out that crowd-investing is still taking its first baby steps, but is experiencing rapid growth. The crowd has invested in real estate worth €309 million. Among the investors who are turning to crowdfunding projects, “are more and more institutional investors, especially in the USA and Great Britain”. With a slight delay, it looks as if this trend has also arrived in Germany.
Demand for commercial real estate loans remains strong
On 09.09.2016, the BÖRSEN-ZEITUNG reported on the “German Debt Project” study from the International Real Estate Business School (Irebs) at the University of Regensburg, which has revealed that 20 per cent more real estate developments have been financed so far this year than last. The report’s authors fully expect that this strong growth will continue for the foreseeable future. In 2015, new lending was largely focussed on developments within Germanys Top Seven cities. One striking feature of the last year was the massive growth in financing for project developers (+78 per cent) in contrast to a fall in financing for construction developers (down some 25 per cent). Margins fell further and have now dropped to the level they were at in 2010.
Short-term utilisation of retail spaces gains in popularity
As reported by DIE WELT on 03.09.2016, extremely short leases, often encompassing just a few days or weeks, have become more common in Germany’s biggest cities, as pop-up stores gain in popularity. It is not yet clear within the retail sector whether this is a temporary trend or a phenomenon that will have a permanent impact on the industry. “In any case, the rental income from pop-up stores is lower than the achievable peak rent,” said Joachim Stumpf from BBE. He cautions that pop-up stores are no panacea for eliminating vacancies. If they are to have a beneficial effect, they need to be part of an overall concept. Joachim Stumpf thinks that the greatest potential lies in shopping centres, where centre managers can ensure that a uniform concept is implemented. For example, pop-up stores appeared as far back as 2014, at the opening of the “Gerber” centre in Stuttgart. The top storey of the centre was let in its entirety to short-term tenants. “The ever-changing selection of retailers made the centre more attractive. Customers enjoyed spending time browsing the stores because they never knew what they might find,” said Stumpf.
Increased demand for city-centre logistics space
In its 08.09.2016 edition, the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on increased demand for city-centre logistics space as a result of the continued growth of the online retail sector. According to Andreas Fleischer of Segro, this is one of “the hottest topics for the logistics industry.” Fleischer has observed the greatest demand for spaces of between 5.000 and 8,000 sqm. However, it can be difficult to assess the value of such properties. Fleischer admits that he is “somewhat sceptical” about the prospects of such objects establishing themselves as a distinct asset class.
Popularity of logistic real estate surges
On 08.09.2016, the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported that demand for logistic real estate has reached such high levels, especially in top logistics regions, that investors in this asset class are increasingly willing to make compromises. In H1 2016, logistic real estate accounted for more than 10% of total commercial real estate investment. According to figures released by CBRE, JLL, BNPPRE, Savills and Colliers, the transaction volume in this asset class amounted to between €1.8 and €2.1 billion. Investment in logistics was equal to investment in hotels. “The focus on logistic real estate has steadily increased,” was how Kai F. Oulds from CBRE interpreted recent developments. Jan Linsin from CBRE has also observed growing demand for investments in light industrial and logistic real estate: “At the moment, classic institutional investors such as insurers, occupational pension schemes and pension funds are increasingly turning towards logistic real estate as they increase the share of real estate in their portfolios.” CBRE expects investment in the sector to reach €4 billion by year end, which would once again set a new investment record and beat the impressive total from 2015. CBRE also believes that last year’s record for take-up will also be beaten this year. CBRE thinks that a take-up volume of between 6 and 6.5 million sqm is entirely realistic. In H1 2016, around 3.3 million square metres were taken up. According to CBRE, this represented growth of 8 per cent in comparison with H1 2015.
Dynamic yield growth in nursing care facilities
As revealed by PROCONTRA in its 04/2016 issue, alternative real estate investment segments such as social service facilities are becoming ever more important for investors. The sector promises higher returns than office and shopping centre real estate. “The peak yield for modern nursing care facilities stands at 6 per cent, 240 basis points higher than what can be achieved with first-rate properties in the office or retail sectors,” said CBRE’s Jan Linsin. The nursing care facilities investment market has enjoyed particularly dynamic growth over the last few years. CBRE reported that transactions totalled €863 million in H1 2016, a figure which exceeds the volume for the whole of 2015. The growth in investments in nursing care facilities should not to be regarded as a short-term trend. Rather, against the background of demographic developments in Germany, such investments should be seen as feeding into a sustainable, long-term growth market.
GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for Duisburg
Duisburg is a traditionally industrial city in a densely populated area, with over 12 million people living within a 60-kilometer radius. The metal industry accounts for an above-average share of Duisburg’s manufacturing output. But amid intensifying competition from small, efficient electro-steel works, local metal producers will be forced to cut jobs, continuing an ongoing downsizing process. The impact of this structural adjustment has already been felt – the manufacturing share of regional output has already fallen considerably, and over half the region’s output now comes from trade and services. Duisburg hosts one of the world’s largest inland ports, and is a junction for international goods traffic. In recent years the area around the port has become an attractive site for mid-sized high-tech and logistics firms. A strategically good location for business and incentive programs to redevelop former industrial areas should support fairly brisk economic growth in the years ahead.
Feri rates Duisburg as a business location “C”, which is upgraded to the 2nd quarter 2015. It translates into “average potential, average risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 16th in the comparison of German B-Centers.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Duisburg “C”, which is downgraded to the 2nd quarter 2015. The city ranks 19th among office locations of German B-Centers. Feri awards the office top locations “C” and the side locations “C”
Duisburg’s gradual, still-ongoing economic transition from reliance on heavy industry to a modern services orientation is visible in its office employment numbers. Especially at the end of the 1990s, the number of office employees here rose, in line with an influx of logistics and ecommerce companies as well as the opening of several call centers for German banks. But in the current decade, recurrent episodes of cyclically weak economic conditions induced spottier office employment growth and some downward fluctuations. Nonetheless, in the medium term, Duisburg’s scope for further service sector expansion – a function of the region’s ongoing structural change process – will enable its number of office employees to rise quite strongly and steadily.
The crisis in its traditional industrial sectors induced the city of Duisburg to attempt to recover from the economic damage thereby inflicted by targeted programs that sought to attract other, more future-oriented business segments to the area. By the end of the 1990s, this effort had shown some visibly positive results – specifically, the service sector’s share in total production rose. Nonetheless, the region’s service sector should return to fairly lively growth in coming years, once the overall economy recovers. Ongoing structural change will support this trend, as will an unbureaucratic city policy that expedites new business start-ups.
A period of vibrant service sector expansion generated excess demand on Duisburg’s office market in the late 1990s. Firms required modern office facilities, and the supply of newly built or renovated office space was quite short, relative to demand, for a comparatively brief interval right around the turn of the century. The vacancy rate fell sharply at this time, but the onset of a major cyclical downswing in the latter part of 2001 and in 2007 cut off this tightening market trend. The vacancy rate then shot up, in a spike further fueled by a number of new completions that augmented supply just when market conditions were deteriorating. Nevertheless, Duisburg has a lower office vacancy rate than other cities in the Rhine-Ruhr area. As demand will recover in the years to come office vacancy will decrease.
Recently Duisburg’s “Innenhafen” district, the old harbor area, has become a preferred office location. Along with newly constructed office buildings in this area, old industrial warehouses around the harbor have also been converted into office space. By now, this development activity has put about 120,000 sq m of office space on the market. The attractive setting and the possibility of local enterprise networks make “Innenhafen” a favorable business location. Logistics and services companies, in particular, have chosen to set up operations here. Further augmentation of the “Innenhafen” district’s office space volume, and an office project at the old rail freight station (“Güterbahnhof”), are proposed for upcoming years. All this additional space will dampen the rent and price performance. Competition from the office market in Düsseldorf is another dampening factor.
The office market in suburban Duisburg is less wellestablished than its counterpart in the inner city. Demand for office space in the suburbs is weaker, as well. However, several banks operate call centers in suburban locations. In coming years, the rent and purchase price performance in the suburban segment of Duisburg’s office market will generally lag the performance of Duisburg’s inner city office market. For now a furthermore weak development of rents is expected.
In the past, Duisburg has exhibited a volatile performance with respect to yields for office space. Yields peaked in 2000; afterwards, they declined drastically, reaching their lowest point in the year 2003. Since then, yields have risen again. Recent data had suggested that yields were stabilizing nicely. For most of the forecast period, generally stable yields are projected for Duisburg’s office real estate market.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of German B-Centers regarding retail real estate Duisburg placed 26th with a rating result of “D”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2015. Feri awards the retail top locations “D-” and the side locations “C”.
Retail trade in Duisburg has been suffering from weak consumption as well as intense competition from the “CentrO” shopping center in Oberhausen, which pulls some €383.5 million per year in retail sales away from Duisburg. To combat this loss of purchasing power, a new shopping center called “Forum Duisburg” (50,000 sq m retail space) opened in 2009. Another development was the reconstruction of the “Königsgalerie” finished in 2011. The city’s master plan to improve the retail situation in the midtown succeeded for the benefit of the pedestrian lane. Thus, retail space rents in Duisburg are projected to rise modestly in the medium term.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Duisburg placed 29th among German B-Centers with a rating result of “D”, downgraded to the 2nd quarter 2015.
Duisburg’s apartment market is divided into two distinct subcomponents with respective performances that could hardly contrast more extremely. In less favorably located areas and for small, low-quality dwelling units, the vacancy rate is high. Out-migration from the region has devastated demand for rentals of this type. By contrast, the supply of available apartments in good and very good residential areas is too small to satisfy demand. New building of multifamily structures has stopped almost completely. A rising proportion of one- and two-person households will support rising rents for modernized existing units and for new apartments in the nicer areas. However, a large stock of old, no longer marketable dwellings will also continue to characterize Duisburg’s rental housing segment. Such units won’t encounter any demand.
Out-migration to surrounding areas has had an even greater adverse effect on Duisburg’s market for purchase of residential property than on its rental housing market. High prices for building land and low availability of building lots constrict the market’s potential vibrancy. Families with children are particularly apt to move to surrounding areas in the lower Rhine region. In recent years, weakening labor market conditions (in an area where the unemployment rate always tends to be high) generated substantial buyer’s resistance, and hence a weak price performance across all segments of Duisburg’s housing sales market. Nevertheless, over the medium term, prices should rise for residences in good and very good locations, particularly since new building activity will stay low. Conversely, ordinary, less favorably located properties will be difficult to sell.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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