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Prices for residential real estate in Frankfurt keep on rising
The IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG reported on 25.08.2016 that prices for residential real estate in Frankfurt rose significantly during H1 2016, highlighting figures published in the new half-year report published by the city’s Land Valuation Committee. The biggest price rises were registered for apartments constructed since the year 2000, but excluding newbuilds. In this category, the Committee registered increases of 13%, with prices reaching €4,740/sqm. Prices for older apartments constructed before 1950 were also substantially higher, with the peak square metre price climbing to €8,190. Nordend and Ostend, where the median purchase price is €4,940/sqm and the maximum stands at €7,640/sqm, saw the greatest sales volumes in this category, with 41 objects changing hands. Buyers were most interested in units built between 1975 and 1990. Interest in newbuilds, which translated into 351 sales, has narrowed, whereby a majority of deals involved newly built condominiums in Bockenheim, Hausen, Heddernheim, Niederursel and Rödelheim. Overall, condominium sales were down, as was the number of transactions involving multi-family houses, which declined by 23% in comparison with the corresponding prior year period. These falls are primarily due to the unwillingness of owners to put their properties up for sale. The most expensive districts were Ostend, with prices of up to €7,590/sqm, and the Europaviertel, with prices of up to €6,610/sqm. The most affordable prices were registered in Fechenheim, were apartments cost at most €3.340/sqm. The average price for a standard newbuild apartment across all districts amounted to €4,460/sqm, a rise of 4% over H1 2015. In roughly a quarter of transactions, buyers paid more than €5,000/sqm.
Berlin offers start-ups the most affordable rents
On 25.08.2016, DIE WELT reported that Savills latest Live/Work Index shows that there have been some major changes in the combined cost of residential and office rental per person per year across leading world class cities. For example, the cost of living and working in London have fallen by 11% since December 2015. The Index bases its ranking on the total accommodation costs for a start-up team of seven employees. A company in London faces total accommodation costs of US$100,114 per person per year, whereas the figure is US$114,000 in New York. As a result, New York toppled London from its position as the most expensive city. Berlin, along with the Indian city of Mumbai, offers particularly affordable accommodation costs. Newly founded companies need to budget just US$30,000 per person per year for residential and office rentals in the Germany capital.
Real estate agents predict further price rises for residential property in Berlin and Frankfurt
Although Germany’s real estate agents have yet to report any noticeable increase in demand for residential property, many within the industry are certain that demand from overseas’ buyers in Berlin and Frankfurt, which is already strong, will be given a further boost once the Brexit process gets underway. This was reported by DIE WELT on 20.08.2016. Einar Skjerven of the Skjerven Group views Brexit as, “one of the most significant positive factors for the Berlin market.” He expects London’s start-up scene to turn to Berlin, and that this will further add to demand for residential real estate in the German capital. According to Rubina Real Estate, members of China’s middle-classes are already showing high levels of interest in Berlin apartments in the €300,000 to €500,000 category, a development that is likely to fuel further price surges. Real estate agents in the greater Frankfurt region also believe that it is highly likely that prices in the mid-market segment will continue to rise. Engel & Völkers revealed that a number of London-based banks and companies are planning to move their headquarters from London to Frankfurt. Due to the scarce supply of office space in Frankfurt’s top locations, prospective tenants are already extending their interest to fringe and peripheral districts.
Hamburg’s residential market surges to sales record
As revealed by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 25.08.2016, new figures published by Hamburg’s Land Valuation Committee show that sales of apartment buildings and condominiums in Hamburg totalled more than 3.6 billion euros in 2015. This represented an increase of more than 50% compared with 2014. The number of transactions registered by the Land Valuation Committee was also up, by 16% to 427, and represented the highest figure since 2010. The increase in demand and market activity have resulted in price rises, pushing the square metre price up by 18% to a new high of €2,485. The biggest increases, in some cases of more than 30%, were registered in fair to good locations. At €2,479/sqm, prices in these locations have doubled since 2008. Hamburg’s most expensive neighbourhoods are all in waterside locations: Harvestehude (€7,207/sqm), Hafencity (€6,784/sqm), Uhlenhorst (€5,550/sqm) and Rotherbaum (€5,321/sqm).
Rising prices around Germany’s biggest cities
According to the WELT AM SONNTAG on 21.08.2016, new statistics published by empirica reveal that there has been a slowdown in the rate at which prices for condominiums, detached and semi-detached houses in Germany’s biggest cities are rising. The figures from empirica show that average prices in H1 2016 were comparable with those in H1 2015. A large number of buyers can no longer afford to pay the high market prices in central districts of major cities and are therefore either deciding to buy smaller apartments, or to buy property in surrounding areas. Prices in Berlin were recently rising at a rate of 15% and have risen by an unprecedented 75% since 2010. Teltow, to the south of Berlin, is highlighted as an example of how buying patterns have evolved. The community has been overrun by newcomers as the population has climbed to 25,000, transforming Teltow into one of the most densely populated municipalities outside Berlin. Teltow hasn’t stopped growing and its population is forecast to rise above 26,000 at some point in the next few months. Property prices have also risen significantly in cities within easy reach of Berlin. Cottbus has seen advertised house and condominium prices surge by 21% over the last twelve months and the average price paid for an apartment, detached or semi-detached house climbed to €1,495/sqm in H1 2016. The city, located between Leipzig and the German-Polish border, is representative of a more generally observed trend. Frankfurt an der Oder, east of Berlin and also close to the German-Polish border, has registered property price increases of 37% since H1 2015, the fastest rate of increase anywhere in Germany. Property in the town now costs €1,845/sqm. A survey carried out by Interhyp has confirmed that buyers are increasingly moving to more rural and provincial areas. Conveniently located shops and a well-established transport and road infrastructure are what most buyers look for, and are ranked much higher than proximity to the workplace.
Rental prices in North-Rhine Westphalia are still rising
Living in North-Rhine Westphalia (NRW) keeps on getting more expensive, reported the FAZ on 26.08.2016. According to LEG’s latest residential market report, the average cold rent (i.e. net rent before heating and other operating costs) for new rental contracts concluded between April 2015 and March 2016 rose by 2.1% to €6.38/sqm. The study analyses rental prices in 54 cities and rural districts in NRW. For the first time since the annual study was launched six years ago, price rises were registered in every single city and district, confirming that the Mietpreisbremse rental control is having no dampening effect. The highest advertised rents were in Cologne, at €10.00/sqm (prior year: €9.95/sqm) and €9.63/sqm in Düsseldorf (prior year: €9.31/sqm). Nine of the ten most expensive postal districts were in Cologne, with Cologne’s Altstadt the most expensive of all, at €12.33/sqm. The second highest advertised rent, €12.23/sqm, was registered in Düsseldorf’s Oberkassel district, where apartments with high utility value command up to €19.38/sqm. Rental prices generally increased disproportionately in the best residential neighbourhoods.
Attractive returns from commercial real estate in Eastern Germany
In its 26.08.2016 edition, the FAZ analysed a recent TLG Immobilien study into property
markets in Eastern Germany. The study registered attractive yields from commercial real estate investments in the region’s B cities, Leipzig, Dresden, Erfurt, Rostock and Potsdam. High-quality office space in central Leipzig can generate yields of up to 5.2%. This rises as high as 6% in Erfurt and Rostock. Aengvelt reported office take-up of around 51,000 square metres in Leipzig. For the full year, take up is expected to reach 90,000 sqm. Despite the increase in market activity, the office vacancy rate remains stubbornly high in Leipzig, at 10%. This is largely due to the fact that many of the city’s office schemes do not quite live up to modern requirements. If demand is to be fully satisfied, new office developments will be required, although rental prices are at such a low level that new developments are rarely profitable. Peak rents for office space in Leipzig rarely rise above €12.00/sqm.
Supply shortage forces transaction volumes down
Transactions involving commercial real estate and residential portfolios in Germany during H1 2016 declined by 45.2% in comparison with H1 2015, falling from €41.4 billion to €22.7 billion, revealed the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 30.08.2016 and €URO EXTRA 2-2016. In particular, volumes fell most markedly for portfolio deals (from €9.5 billion to €4.8 billion) and commercial real estate (from €24.3 billion to €18.4 billion). Demand for low-risk core objects remained high. At the same time, the shortage of residential real estate is pushing rents and purchase prices ever higher, often out of the reach of average consumers. In many regions household incomes have risen, more than compensating for rents and loan costs. However, this does not apply in major cities such as Berlin, Munich or Hamburg.
Construction industry order books healthier than in two decades
On 01.09.2016, the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG revealed that figures just published by the Federal Office of Statistics show that companies within the construction industry with more than 20 employees reported orders of €34.5 billion in H1 2016. In comparison with the corresponding prior year period’s €29.2 billion, this represents an increase of 18.3%. This is also the highest half-year figure in the last twenty years. The sector generated sales revenues of €29.7 billion. During the same period one year earlier, the sector enjoyed revenues of €27.5 billion. The rise of 8.3% was twice as high as forecast by the Central Federation of the German Construction Industry. The lion’s share of growth can be attributed to apartment construction. In this sector, orders were up by 21.3%, and revenues rose by 18.6% to €4.8 billion. Demand for refugee accommodation was another key driver. In comparison with 2015, orders increased by 12% and revenues grew by 8%. The industry is benefiting from low interest rates, strong economic growth and increased migration to urban centres. It is therefore fully understandable that the newly published ifo Business Sentiment Index reports that the mood within the sector, unlike in other industries, remains “unchanged at a record high.”
Stock of commercial real estate loans shrinks
On 29.08.2016, articles appeared in the online editions of both HANDELSBLATT and
WIRTSCHAFTSWOCHE focussing on a new CBRE study reporting that the stock of commercial real estate loans in Germany has reduced dramatically over the last five years. By the end of 2015, the overall loan book was down by a nominal 14% to just under €261 billion, having declined from almost €302 billion at the end of 2010. This is particularly striking given the tripling of sales and acquisitions in the sector over the same period. The transaction volume reached a total of €55.2 billion in 2015. “Current developments just go to show that rising investment volumes do not automatically mean that demand for loans will also rise,” said Jan Linsin from CBRE Deutschland. Investors in the commercial real estate sector are less reliant on loan capital, preferring instead to use a greater deal of equity, explained CBRE’s Dirk Richolt: “As a consequence, we have seen the volume of loans decline significantly as investment activity has accelerated.” Above all, it has been the big mortgage banks that have been hardest hit by the fall in demand for real estate loans. Mortgage banks’ loan books have shrunk by 43% in the specified period, and regional banks have experienced declines of 22%. In contrast, insurers have been able to expand their loan books by 27%.
Investors appreciate the security offered by Berlin’s residential real estate
The HANDELSBLATT published a detailed reported into the Berlin residential real estate market online on 26.08.2016. According to figures published by CBRE, the number of households in Berlin rose by 27,000 last year alone. In addition, 55,000 registered and an unknown number of unregistered asylum seekers arrived in the city. In contrast, just 10,700 residential units were completed last year. “This was nowhere near enough,” said Michael Schlatterer from CBRE: “Instead of 10,000, we need 20,000 newly completed apartments in Berlin each year.” Berlin is also enjoying unbroken interest among investors and continues to offer attractive, low-risk investment opportunities. On the one hand, condominium prices rose by 9% during the first six months of this year. On the other hand, rents only rose by 5.4%. Thomas Zabel remains convinced that Berlin’s residential real estate market is still undervalued, unlike the markets in London, Paris or Frankfurt: “We think that price rises of between 8% and 12% per year in a major city are entirely realistic,” commented Zabel. A majority of his clients are buy-to-let investors, largely from overseas, including many from Asia, who appreciate the yields and minimal risk they find in Berlin. “An investor buying a buy-to-let condominium expects returns of between 3% and 5%. That is entirely realistic in today’s market,” explained Zabel. Such investors prize a central location for their investments as they view this as offering the greatest degree of security. According to an ImmobilienScout24 and Handelsblatt Online location ranking, which analyses the investment potentials of 8,000 municipalities and communities across Germany, the highest prices are paid in Berlin-Mitte, beginning near the Brandenburg Gate at Pariser Platz and extending along the prestigious Unter den Linden. Friedrichstraße and the area around Gendarmenmarkt are also ranked among the best locations. Nevertheless, not every investor prioritises security, some also prize high-value objects as status symbols, suggested Ulrich Jacke from Lübke & Kelber: “Owning an apartment in Berlin that costs more than €10,000 per square metre is a bit like an art lover treating themselves to a Rembrandt.” He is, however, not worried by recent price developments as such buyers are definitely an exception.
Market for apartment buildings in Berlin remains stable thanks to high prices
As revealed by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 01.09.2016, an IVD market report shows that transactions involving tenanted apartment buildings in 2014 totalled €4.7 billion. As publication of the IVD’s residential investment report was delayed somewhat, there are already more up-to-date figures available. Berlin’s Land Valuation Committee has already reported transactions of €4.41 billion for 2015. The investment volume across the 47 towns and cities included in the IVD’s study totalled €14.2 billion in 2014, compared with €13.7 billion in 2013. The number of sales rose slightly, increasing by 0.9% to 12,044. According to the IVD, roughly one third of the total investment, or €4.7 billion, was registered in Berlin. Almost half of the total investment involved deals for apartment buildings in Berlin, Hamburg, Cologne and Munich. In Munich, just 157 deals (-3.1%) generated €917 million (-0.7%). More recent figures from Munich’s Land Valuation Committee reveal that the number of transactions declined again in 2015, although the €1.01 billion of investment represented a 10% increase over the previous year.
Berlin’s office rents climb again
As reported by DIE WELT on 01.09.2016, office rents in Berlin have risen as the amount of available space has contracted. A new bulwiengesa study, commissioned by CA Immo, TLG Immobilien and Union Investment, has revealed that the number of office workers in the city is set to increase by 62,000, or 8.7%, over the next four years. This will lead to demand for an additional 1.6 million square metres of office space. Only 4% of Berlin’s office space is currently vacant. The average rent rose by 7% to €15.60/sqm. The high prices are a disadvantage for companies currently on the lookout for space as they have less money available for personnel and business development. This is especially true for companies in the TMT (Technology, Media and Telecommunications) sector, who were responsible for around one third of office space take up in Berlin during H1 2016, according to CBRE. The shortage of of office space is the result of subdued development activity. New developments are planned, including the construction of the 140-metre East Side Tower office scheme at Ostbahnhof by a joint venture between OVG Real Estate and Freo, and a cubiform office development to the south of Berlin’s main railway station from CA Immo.
Solid prospects for Frankfurt’s residential real estate market
In its online edition on 29.08.2016, the HANDELSBLATT wrote in detail about Frankfurt’s residential real estate market. According to data collected by Immobilienscout24, rental prices in the city rose by around 5% in 2015, and property prices increased by 6%. Prices are, however, increasing at a slower pace than the rises seen in Berlin. In any case, price levels in Frankfurt are already much higher than in the German capital and investors and lobbyists have been given a shot in the arm by the UK’s Brexit decision. Frankfurt Main Finance, a federation of lobbyists, expects that 10,000 new jobs will be created in the city as a result. “Customers who previously bought real estate in London are increasingly focussing on Germany. We are registering twice as many enquiries as we used to,” said Thomas Zabel of Zabel Property Management. Zabel is currently developing the “grand Tower” in Frankfurt’s Europaviertel and has already sold more than half of the apartments off-plan, before a single unit is even complete. Frankfurt is already the second-most expensive city in Germany. Nevertheless, many within the real estate industry expect prices to keep on rising. “If capital keeps flowing as it is at the moment, prices will continue to rise,” said Ulrich Jacke of Dr. Lübke & Kelber. In terms of construction activity, Jacke believes that Frankfurt compares favourably with other major cities. 4,418 apartments were completed in 2014, more than in any of the previous 20 years. Statistically speaking, Frankfurt built 0.6 apartments for every 100 inhabitants, a figure that is twice as high as the national average. In 2015, the number of apartment completions fell moderately to 4,325. The real estate company CBRE does not see any need for a correction. “Bottlenecks occur primarily in the low-cost segment and in city fringe districts, both of which are extremely popular with investors,” wrote CBRE in its housing market report.
Düsseldorf’s Königsallee is the most expensive high street in NRW
As reported by the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG on 02.09.2016, Düsseldorf’s Königsallee is the most expensive shopping high street in North-Rhine Westphalia (NRW), commanding rents of up to €280/sqm. According to the IVD, retail rents have risen by 8% over the previous twelve months. Cologne, widely referred to as the Rhine metropolis, registered a peak retail rent of up to €260/sqm and landed second place in the ranking.
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for Warsaw
Warsaw is Poland’s largest economic and cultural center as well as the national capital and seat of government. Since the fall of the “Iron Curtain” in 1989, Warsaw has developed into a city of international importance. Its economic growth in the latter part of the nineties significantly outpaced the Polish average as well as the overall European average. Warsaw still has to catch up with other European urban centers in attaining a more modern, dynamic economic configuration. Warsaw has a generally very good infrastructure with functional transport and communication connections. The political changes that have taken place since 1990, and especially the opening of the Polish border, have facilitated a noticeable increase in the number of international companies that have located in Warsaw in order to enter the Eastern European market.
Feri rates Warsaw as a business location “A”, which is downgraded to the 2nd quarter 2015. It translates into “high potential, low risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 8th in the comparison of European Metropolises.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Warsaw “C”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2015. The city ranks 15th among office locations of European Metropolises. Feri awards the office top locations “C” and the side locations “C”
The office market in Warsaw, with its size of almost 5 million square meters, is Poland’s largest office market; in recent years it also became an attractive European office location. Warsaw as state capital, a good level of education, and comparable cheap rental prices attract West European enterprises to outsource single business activities or to set up a foreign base for the entrance to the East-European market. The share of modern office stock amounts to 65 %. Usually rents are paid in the euro currency. Risks are seen in a high volatility and an only average transparency.
The development of office space demand will remain weak due to economic conditions in the next two years. A significant number of new office jobs will be created again only from 2016 on. At the same time, construction activity will remain extraordinary dynamic. With an annual amount of office space of more than 300,000 square meters this is well above the average of the last fifteen years. As a result, the vacancy rate will continue to rise within a timeframe of two years. Only after 2017 the Warsaw office market will show a growing tendency to find a new market-equilibrium, supported by the recovery in economic activity. Therefore rental growth will exceed the long-term trend growth not before the later forecast period.
During last year, rental yields dropped significantly, anticipating the starting occupier cycle from next year on, despite some ongoing uncertainty in the investment market. The future performance of the office market capital values will therefore depend more and more on the coming positive development of rents and less of the remaining yield compression. Price increases caused by further decreasing rental yields are only likely if political situation and the still restrictive credit terms will improve. After the new installed political government, the country risk premium is expected to rise again. In the medium to long run, the risk of rising interest rates will additionally restrict further yield-shifts.
Between the years 2002 and 2007 rental yields in the Warsaw office market compressed almost 400 basispoints, from 10% to about 6%. This was caused by favorable credit terms, euphoric expectations with regard to an ongoing dynamic economic development and the introduction of the Euro. Due to the unexpected high uncertainty caused by the financial crisis and the weak economy in the years following the crisis, the rental yields have been developed rather cautious. Considering foreseeable potentials and risks, we expect a fair rental yield of 6.1% for the years to come. The current rental yield is only some 20 Basispoints below this “Fair Value”.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of European Metropolises regarding retail real estate Warsaw placed 23rd with a rating result of “B+”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2015. Feri awards the retail top locations “B” and the side locations “A”.
The Warsaw area accounts for about a quarter of all the retail space in Poland. Yet, it still has a cumulative shortage of retail space per capita, compared to the European average. The supply of retail space in the inner city is very low. In response to demand, developers added store space in secondary locations and built shopping centers in the periphery. International retailers, the main source of demand, have frequently opted to locate in the peripheral centers due to the scarcity of retail space in the central city. Even though Warsaw’s stock of retail space will be augmented in the upcoming years, retail rents in Warsaw’s top locations are expected to rise slightly over the course of the next years. In secondary locations rental growth will be weak due an oversupply of low quality space and increasing vacancies.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Warsaw placed 25th among European Metropolises with a rating result of “B”, upgraded to the 2nd quarter 2015.
Since the late 1990s, due to high demand for apartments and the structural change on the supply side, rents increased strongly in Warsaw, even though rents were already on a high level. Both rents for existing and new apartments slowed down significantly as a result of a weak economic development in the years after the financial crisis. In the years to come, when the economy and the labor market will be recovering again, apartment rents in Warsaw should start to rise again. Future demand is supported by increasing immigration for several years. Nevertheless, given the relatively high rent level for central Europe, rent increases in coming years will not reach levels seen in the 1990s or during the years before the financial crisis.
Warsaw is Poland’s most preferred market for buying residential property. Demand for condominiums focuses on the two opposite extremes of the market: small, inexpensive housing units, and luxury accommodations in very good locations. For both condominiums and houses, prices vary significantly by location. In the last years before the financial crisis rising demand has led to a price increase in all segments. Since then, a sharp correction of prices took place, especially during the economically weak years 2012 and 2013.
In coming years, one can expect demand, reinforced by Warsaw’s ever-growing importance as Poland’s economic center, to recover significantly. However, since an ongoing high rate of new completions, major price leaps will be rather unlikely.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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