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Refugees become apartment hunters
In contrast to the unexpectedly large numbers of refugees that arrived in Germany in 2015, the amount of emergency and short-term shared accommodation needed this year is much less than originally expected, reported the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 28.07.2016. Instead, demand for regular rental apartments in the lowest price segments has risen rapidly, intensifying the current housing shortage, especially in major cities where the supply of living space is already tight. Although the number of refugees arriving during H1 2016 was only one-sixth of the previous year’s 12-month figure, empirica is sticking to its forecasts for refugee housing: Around 75,000 extra apartments need to be built each year until 2020 if asylum-seekers are to be housed. In comparison with a majority of other forecasts, empirica’s calculations are relatively conservative. The IVD arrives at figure of 174,000 new residential units for refugees per year until 2020. In the near future it is likely that private housing companies will play a greater role in providing accommodation for refugees than is currently the case. An EY survey of elected mayors recently revealed that many officials are looking to increase their investments in affordable housing for low-earning households and refugees, and that many municipalities are open to the idea of forming public-private partnerships in order to do so.
Are construction contract law reforms even constitutional?
As revealed by the FAZ on 25.07.2016, a legal assessment seen by the newspaper indicates that legislators have infringed Germany’s constitution with a number of the regulations contained in the reformed construction contract law. In the opinion of the constitutional lawyer Ulrich Battis, of the Humboldt University, the so-called Anordnungsrecht des Bauherren, the regulation that permits developers to make unilateral changes to contractual arrangements, violates the principle of contractual freedom. The German constitution fundamentally protects the decision-making freedom of all contractual parties. The idea that a contract can be unilaterally amended by one party is difficult to reconcile with this principle. According to Battis, this would allow one party to a contract to solely determine the provisions and terms specified by the contract, to the potential detriment of the other party. As a result, Battis believes that the regulation would be incompatible with “the fundamental freedom of housebuilders to carry out their profession, and is therefore unconstitutional.” Similar doubts have already been expressed by a committee of experts appointed by Germany’s Federal Council, the Bundesrat. The committee recommended that the regulation should be removed from the draft reform as it impinges on a business’ freedom “to influence the conditions and terms of the contracts it agrees.” The new regulation also makes it impossible to plan and undertake construction projects, as it introduces too many personnel, machinery and materials purchasing variables. Battis has suggested a compromise. He would like to see construction companies guaranteed more leeway in the rights to refuse contractual amendments, especially in cases where it is their client who is responsible for the need to make changes. Otherwise, Battis warns, the construction companies alone will be left to pick up the tab for any risks arising from contractual amendments.
Competition for development land intensifies
According to the CEOs of empirica and bulwiengesa, Reiner Braun and Andreas Schulten, municipal authorities and private developers have become direct competitors as far as development land is concerned. This was revealed by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 28.07.2016. Private developers are completely shut out when municipalities provide their own housing companies with development land at reduced prices, or even at zero cost. The allocation of development land is currently a source of conflict in Munich after Gewofag and GWG have set their sights on 20 plots of land which they are looking to acquire for free. Berlin’s authorities have also been busy awarding land to their own housing companies. The most recent round of land disposals involved 110 sites, and the last tranche of 29 parcels was big enough to develop 11,000 apartments. “As land itself is not subsidised, relatively abrupt decision-making by public authorities is likely to intensify shortages and therefore drive local land prices higher,” said Schulten.
Berliner’s have fallen in love with newbuilds
According to a June 2016 survey of 1,220 Berliners by Info, a Berlin-based market research institute, almost one-third of respondents have absolutely no problem with new residential real estate being built in their neighbourhoods. The survey was picked up by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 28.07.2016. Residents in the district of Berlin-Mitte were most open to new housing construction, with 82% in favour. The highest levels of resistance were found in the pre-fab district of Marzahn-Hellersdorf, where only 60% would not object to new housing developments. The attitude towards the construction of new housing in Berlin is generally positive, and a large majority of the city’s population recognise that there is no real alternative to building more housing. 86% of Berliners are happy with their current home, whereas 9% would like to move as soon as possible, and 22% are planning to move in the foreseeable future. Of 18- to 29-year-olds, almost half (45%) would like to move to a new apartment. Mitte (40%), Reinickendorf (39%) and Spandau (36%) are the districts with the highest numbers of tenants who want to move. Half of all Berliners also admitted that they can imagine moving from their current apartments into newly built units. Among those who said that they are definitely planning to move, 74% would favour a newbuild. For Berliners, the most important factor in choosing a new home is price (82%). Location and transport/road infrastructure follow at 79% and 72%, respectively.
Home-ownership has never been as affordable
At 140.42 points, the IVD’s affordability index has reached a record high. This was revealed by DAS INVESTMENT in its 8-2016 edition. Despite rising prices, residential real estate has never been this affordable. Comparing Germany’s major cities shows that home-ownership is most affordable in Hamburg (127.9 points). Berlin came fourth, scoring 111.3 points, followed by Cologne with 92.9 points. The city with the least affordable condominiums and houses is Munich.
The rise (and rise) of the terraced house
As the SÜDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG reported on 29.07.2016, it is not just established professionals and higher-earning families with children that are increasingly buying houses in the suburbs. Young people on lower incomes are also looking to buy small houses in city fringe districts. Terraced houses are clearly gaining in popularity. This is a direct result of urbanisation and the shortage of affordable housing in more central urban areas. Michael Stüber from Deutsche Eigenheim AG suggests that terraced houses are the best alternative to living in multi-story rental apartment buildings. Stübers believes that current housing policy is incredibly shortsighted as it only really considers construction costs in relation to the affordability of housing. Owner-occupiers and tenants are, however, confronted by a range of other costs, such as fees for street cleaning, mobility and taxes. Stübers points out that terraced houses, in particular, offer owners and tenants the best value for their money. According to a recent Comdirect study, not even half of all Germans own their own homes (45%). Nevertheless, of these, a majority own houses. 33% of those surveyed revealed that they own the house that they live in, whereas only 12% are condominium owner-occupiers. Among the over-60s, the percentage of house owners was particularly high, at 39%. Although 55% of the population live in rental units, one in three would rather be an owner-occupier. If they were to buy, a clear majority would like to own a detached house (68%).
Demand for inner-city logistic space outstrips supply
The HANDELSBLATT wrote on 28.07.2016 that internet retailers are the major drivers of increasing rental prices for logistic real estate in Germany’s major inner-city districts. Consumers are ordering more and more products online, and the speed at which these need to be delivered is increasing all the time. “This has created an enormous requirement for inner-city logistic hubs,” said Segro’s Andreas Fleischer. Demand is highest for 1A sites in Germany’s biggest cities, although there are currently no available spaces at these locations. A recent study from ECC, a Cologne-based market research company, revealed that 17% of online retailers already offer 24-hour delivery services. According to Rainer Koepke of CBRE, whatever applies elsewhere, applies to an even higher degree in Berlin: “In Berlin, more than anywhere else, strong demand from e-Commerce companies is the major driver of rental prices for logistic space in inner-city districts.” Munich is another city with a shortage of available logistic space inside its city limits. The take-up of logistic and light industrial space in Munich during Q1 2016 was 68% higher than in the corresponding previous year quarter.
Record-breaking take-up of logistic space in Rhine-Main region
According to the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 28.07.2016, the 328,000 sqm of logistic space taken up during the first half of 2016 was the highest figure CBRE has ever reported for any six-month period in the Rhine-Main region. H1 2016 beat the average for the first six months of each of the last five years by 33%. A majority of the space, 258,200 sqm, was taken up in the South East submarket. Colliers registered 37 leases in H1, eight of which involved spaces of over 10,000 sqm. According to figures published by NAI apollo, retailers decreased their share of take up from 61% in Q1 to 43.8% for the full H1 2016. Retailers were followed by transport, warehouse and logistic companies, with a 24.4% share, and industrial and manufacturing companies, at 19.6%. The peak rent now stands at €6.20/sqm. In terms of leases and take-up volumes, the Rhine-Main logistic region is the number one in Germany. 44,000 sqm of new logistic space is being developed in two construction phases at the Segro Logistic Park in Bischofsheim near Mainz, 19,000 sqm of which should be available this year. For the full year, CBRE expects take-up to hit 600,000 sqm, NAI apollo’s forecast is even higher, at 700,000 sqm.
Prices continue to rise in Germany’s biggest cities
On 05.08.2016, the HANDELSBLATT reported on figures compiled by JLL showing that rents in Munich were 6.2% higher at the end of H1 2016 than at the end of H1 2015. As a result, the average rent has climbed to €16.90/sqm. In Frankfurt, the average rent has risen to €13.30/sqm. The rate at which rents for existing apartments is rising has, however, slowed. The pace at which condominium prices are increasing was highest in Leipzig, which registered a surge of 20%, followed by Stuttgart (+17%) and Munich (+12.5%). Nevertheless, Munich beat Leipzig in terms of average prices. A condominium in Munich now costs an average of €6,490/sqm, four times the price in Leipzig. Recent price rises have disproportionally hit existing apartments, rather than newbuilds. Forecasts indicate that prices will rise at a faster rate, while rents are set to stagnate. A property price bubble is not a realistic risk, at least according to empirica, as price and rent increases are being fuelled by a shortage of housing, rather than speculation.
Construction volumes on the rise
As reported by the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 04.08.2016, the volume of housing constructed in Europe during 2016 is set to grow by 3%, to €667 billion, according to forecasts issued by the Euroconstruct research association. This follows growth of 1% in 2014 and 2% in 2015. Growth is expected to slow slightly in 2017 and 2018, with 2.5% and 2% more housing construction, resulting in a volume of just under €700 billion in 2018. The cumulative increase in housing construction for the next three years totals almost 16%. Investment is set to rise from around €260 billion (2015) to almost €295 billion (2018). €18 billion is expected to flow into existing real estate (+4.7%). However, the results vary widely across individual European housing markets. Euroconstruct expects housing construction over the three years to 2018 to accelerate fastest in Ireland (+54%), Hungary (+30%) and Portugal (+27%). In contrast, the Italian market is expected to remain subdued in the medium term. According to Euroconstruct, the number of completed newbuild apartments will rise from 1.43 million units in 2015 to 1.68 million in 2018 (+17.8%). In Germany, completions are predicted to increase by 27%, equivalent to 275,000 new apartments per year. The ECB’s latest economic report links a housing market recovery to rising demand for housing within the eurozone, which the central bank thinks will remain at a high level, reported the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG on 03.08.2016. The central bank bases its forecasts on rising household incomes as labour markets improve, which will increase the population’s readiness to invest. In a number of countries, the ECB also points to the impact of tax advantages. In addition, there are currently a lack of investment alternatives, mortgage interest rates remain historically low and credit conditions are favourable. Germany’s Destatis Statistical Office recently reported that Germany’s construction industry generated revenues of €67 billion in 2015, the highest figure since the beginning of the century. As the BÖRSEN ZEITUNG reported on 05.08.2016, the KfW bank stepped up its role as a lender for housing construction in H1 2016. The development bank is responding to the “ongoing strength of the construction industry.”
Draft reform of real estate transfer tax raises objections
As reported by DIE WELT on 31.07.2016 and the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 04.08.2016, Germany’s federal states have presented their long-awaited draft reform of the country’s real estate transfer tax. Rather than basing real estate tax assessments on historical property values from 1964 and 1935 (the element of the current calculations that has been deemed unconstitutional), calculations under the proposed reform would be based on a combination of periodically updated construction costs, gross floor areas and land values, which altogether reflect the “cost value” of a piece of real estate. Earlier rumours that the draft would include a shift to using current market prices have proven to be entirely unfounded. According to Hesse’s Ministry of Finance, no acceptable compromise could be found on a pure “land tax”, which had been suggested by the German Tenants’ Association and environmental groups. Germany’s Federal Council agreed unanimously that the country’s real estate transfer tax should be “designed to reflect the value” of the real estate it is charged against. The council also agreed that the value of the buildings on a piece of land need to be included, as these “are a significant component of the value of any land. Manufacturing costs will be assessed according to the flat-rate standard construction costs listed in the Valuation Act (Bewertungsgesetz). Depending on a building’s age, it will be assigned to one of five categories to reflect its utility value. Land prices will be taken from databases maintained by regional committees of real estate valuation experts. In terms of methodology, these calculations follow a asset value method (construction costs plus the value of land). To reflect depreciations in value as a building ages, a discount of up to 70% can be applied. Cost values should be recalculated every six years, based on the Building Price Index. BIIS has already delivered its assessment, saying that it expects these changes to result in a “significant tax hike.” BIIS describes the new real estate transfer tax as a form of “capped wealth tax,” which will only add to the cost of all property, including newbuilds. Criticism has also been sharp from tenants’ and home-owners’ associations, who, like the housing industry, fear that rents and house prices will be pushed even higher. Germany’s League of Nature Conservationists has complained that the draft reforms eliminate any tax incentives for owners of undeveloped land in city-centre areas, and fears that any remaining open spaces will soon be developed.
Positive risk-return profiles in B-cities
On 04.08.2016, the FAZ reported that, according to a recommendation from Sebastian Denker of Dr. Lübke & Kelber, real estate investors would also be well advised to consider Germany’s so-called B-cities for their investments, as they offer the chance to avoid the low yields that are a direct result of excessive prices in A-cities. According to the company’s annual “Risk-Return Ranking,” there are a number of under-valued investment locations in Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saarland. These include Fulda, Kassel and Worms. In contrast, Wiesbaden, Frankfurt and Offenbach have the worst risk-return ratios. The ranking revealed that the net initial yield for a multi-family building in Frankfurt has dropped to 4.4%, below the 4.9% that can be achieved in Wiesbaden, and 6% and above in Fulda. As far as newbuild developments are concerned, Koblenz, Kaiserslautern and Trier came out top. The study assessed demand for housing, population growth, advertised rents and condominium/house prices. Households in all of the 16 cities would have a lower average housing cost burden if they bought their own home rather than living in rental units.
Redevelopment gains in importance
According to a report in the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 04.08.2016, the redevelopment of office and residential real estate will become even more important in the near future. In the opinion of CBRE’s Ernst Hanfstaengl, owners of office schemes should seriously consider redeveloping and repurposing their properties when they are no longer able to find long-term tenants for at least 50% of the space in their buildings. In attractive locations, apartments generate significantly higher net rents than offices. In addition, office redevelopments enjoy the advantages of established infrastructure and reduced space requirements. CBRE reminds that in order for redevelopment projects to be successful, investors need to be aware of the risks involved and assess these correctly. Over an extended period of time, CBRE monitored the amount of office space withdrawn from office markets in Berlin, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich and established that not only has there been an increase in the amount of space being demolished and rebuilt since 2013, there has also been a rise in repurposed office space during the same period, rising from just under 200,000 sqm in 2013 to around 646,000 sqm in 2015. Above all, ageing commercial space might be interesting as converted accommodation for refugees.
Frankfurt’s commercial real estate market gains momentum
Following a very quiet Q1 2016, with a transaction volume of between €500 and €600 million, Frankfurt’s commercial real estate investment market enjoyed a more lively Q2 2016, reported the IMMOBILIEN ZEITUNG on 04.08.2016. According to CBRE figures, investment during Q2 2016 amounted to €1.5 billion. Colliers revealed that despite this uptick, the quarter’s result was still 39% lower than the same quarter in 2015. Investment volumes remained moderate as the supply of attractive objects in the core and core-plus segments continues to be limited. The stronger result in Q2 was partly due to the sale of the €400-million International Business Centers (IBC), which was the only deal in the triple-digit million range. Transactions during H1 2016 tended towards be smaller in scale. A majority of these involved real estate in the €50 to €100 million segment. These deals contributed 36% to the overall transaction volume and totalled €647 million. Investments in the category of up to €10 million jumped by an impressive 150%. According to BNPPPRE and Colliers, the prime yield for office real estate in Frankfurt stands at between 4% and 4.3%. Market observers have attributed increased demand for project developments and objects with high vacancy rates to the UK’s Brexit vote, which will lead to lower investment volumes this year than last.
GERMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS
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Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The Feri Real Estate Market Rating provides a forward-looking assessment of potentials and risks for investment return on regional real estate markets. Ratings are based on detailed econometric forecasts of regional real estate markets including regional economic development. The rating currently includes more than 150 cities in Europe, in the United States and in Asia.
In this issue:
Real Estate Market Rating for Dublin
From the mid-1990s until the turn of the millennium, an extraordinary burgeoning of activity made Dublin one of Europe’s fastest growing regions. This surge came about through well-targeted restructuring supported by European Union aid programs; Dublin thereby transformed its formerly low-tech industrial base into an internationally competitive cluster of modern enterprises. Electro-technology and production of data processing devices emerged as dynamic drivers of Dublin’s industrial sector. Dublin also achieved remarkable success in the field of software engineering, becoming one of Europe’s top software centers. Financial services are the most prominent tertiary sector segment. Despite a sharp slowdown at present due to the economic downturn and a major correction on the overbuilt housing market, over the longer term Dublin’s forward-looking economic orientation will enable the region, once again, to surpass the European average in many key indicators.
Feri rates Dublin as a business location “AA”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2015. It translates into “high potential, low risk”. With this rating result the city ranks 2nd in the comparison of European Metropolises.
Office Real Estate
Regarding office real estate Feri rates Dublin “D”, which is downgraded to the 2nd quarter 2015. The city ranks 23rd among office locations of European Metropolises. Feri awards the office top locations “D” and the side locations “D-“
Dublin is Ireland’s predominant commercial center, with an office space inventory of 3.4 million square meters. In the last ten years, inventory has doubled, demonstrating the extraordinary growth dynamics that made Ireland the so-called “Celtic tiger” in the period. Prime properties in the central business district (CBD) of Dublin’s city center currently fetch rents of €375/m2. The main demand for office space comes from the computer and high-tech sectors as well as business-related services. Dublin’s office market presents special risks to the investor in the form of low liquidity and high volatility.
In 2013, prime rents in the Dublin office market went up in double digits for the first time since 2007. This growth trend will continue in a more moderated way during the coming years. Dublin’s vacancy rate declined steadily over the past years from 23% to 8% in mid-2016. Supply is expected to decrease further as demand gains momentum and project pipeline is empty. The ongoing recovery in the job market will be the driver for any real increases in office rents, backed by the Irish economy, which is expected to show robust growth rates of between 3% and 3.5% p.a. The impact on rent performance will, as a result, be strong, with annual rent performance expected to be around 6% through the forecasting horizon.
The collapse of transaction volume in 2009 came almost to a complete standstill. By 2012 the development of deal volumes proceeded only slowly. Only since 2013, the confidence has returned to the market. The subsequent compression of rental yields since mid-2012 was accordingly dynamic. Due to steadily increasing investor confidence, initial yields have been reduced since then by more than 300 basis points. With the rental cycle being in the early stage, the medium-term fundamental market potential is extraordinarily high. Investors should therefore increase their activities, reducing initial yields further. The potential for interest rate increases during the later forecast period brings, however, some uncertainty.
Prime rental yields declined dynamically in the face of lively transaction activity since 2013, resulting in yields now clearly below fair value. As a result, high levels of uncertainty and risk aversion of potential investors doesn’t dominate the market anymore. Due to the relatively short period of the current valuation cycle, coupled with an attractive fundamental economic outlook, we expect that over the next two years a moderate cyclical compression can be expected, reducing rental yields by further 20-30 basis points. Main driver of pricing for some time will be the positive development of office rentals.
Retail Real Estate
In the comparison of European Metropolises regarding retail real estate Dublin placed 14th with a rating result of “A”, which is unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2015. Feri awards the retail top locations “B+” and the side locations “AA”.
In the years after the financial crisis, retail rents in Dublin have declined significantly. After 2013 both labor markets and income conditions improved, leading to a decreased unemployment rate and rising consumer sentiment. Particularly in top retail areas such as Grafton Street, the main high street, vacant shopping space is shrinking. With rising retail sales and improving consumer climate this indicates a trend reversal in the development of rents in top locations.
However, the era of explosively rising retail rents seems to have ended. A more normal pattern of steady, but moderate, retail rent increases is expected as Irish disposable incomes continue to be above the European average.
Residential Real Estate
When it comes to residential real estate, Dublin placed 2nd among European Metropolises with a rating result of “A”, unchanged compared to the 2nd quarter 2015.
Bolstered by a strongly expanding economy and ongoing immigration from abroad, average apartment rents in Dublin recorded a series of double-digit increases at the end of the nineties. Since then, the observed slowdown in residential rent increases mainly reflect a widening, ultimately unsustainable differential in the respective growth rates of rents and incomes, finally resulting in the economic slump; national development programs designed to provide affordable housing space have had relatively little effect. Before the financial crisis rents in Dublin were higher than in Munich, while the income was significantly lower. A sharp correction of rents has improved affordability of residential space. Nonetheless, rents won’t rise much stronger than inflation.
Most of the above remarks on the rental market also apply to Dublin’s residential property market. Strong income growth and socio-demographic developments as well created a situation in which demand outran supply. Prices consequently doubled in the span of only a few years. The imbalance between demand and supply has changed to a massive oversupply, not least because construction activity stayed brisk even after the overall economic boom had started to ease. Thus, a period of booming housing prices that lasted many years halted abruptly in 2007, and hence a considerable price consolidation set in. House prices can rise again not before the existing oversupply has been reduced significantly. Due to a reviving demand, house prices are recovering very dynamic since 2013 again. However, this pace will normalize in the next few years.
Contact:
Franz Wolfgang Kubatzki, wolfgang.kubatzki@feri.de, phone +49 (0) 6172 916-38 11
Feri Real Estate Market Rating
The “Feri Real Estate Market Ratings” issued by Feri appraise the value potential of regional real estate markets, taking into account the attendant risks. The methodological approach underlying Feri Real Estate Market Ratings is rooted in the empirical observation that the performance of a given real estate market depends essentially on the economic power of the respective city. Before this background, Feri develops a separate prognostic model for each city, mapping the regional economy as a system of independent equations.
For the purpose of compiling its ratings, Feri uses a detailed regional forecast to analyse the socio-economic development, the economic structure, as well as the ten-year indicators specific to the respective real estate market. The forecast findings are evaluated using a mathematical rating algorithm.
The objective behind the ratings is to make the markets more transparent, and thereby to support pending investment decisions of private and institutional investors. Feri ratings are updated on a quarterly basis, and are currently available for 67 German cities and counties, as well as for 60 European cities outside Germany, and 45 cities in the United States.
Feri EuroRating Services AG
Feri EuroRating Services AG is a leading European rating agency, specializing in the analysis and valuation of investment markets and investment products. Feri is also a major economic research and forecasting institute. At present, Feri employs a staff of around 60 professionals to manage about 1000 customer accounts. The company is headquartered in Bad Homburg near Frankfurt, Germany, with sales offices in the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. In addition to its global industry analyses and ratings of companies, countries, capital and real estate markets, Feri regularly appraises the investment funds registered in each country. Annual market surveys on institutional and mutual funds as well as on closed-end participations provide an overview of the perspectives and actions of institutional investors. In the real estate sector, Feri conducts global real estate research, performs real estate valuations, and provides ratings of companies, REITs, real estate, real estate portfolios, and indirect real estate investments (open-end and closed-end real estate funds).
For more information on Feri EuroRating Services, please go to http://fer.feri.de/en/about-us/portrait/.
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