DOW 18029.85 -17.73 (-0.10%), NASDAQ 4906.36 +7.10 (+0.14%),
S&P500 2099.68 -0.66 (-0.03%)
Tomorrow will see the FOMC Minutes released in the afternoon session, and that is expected to be a major market mover.
The market is showing a lot of divergence, suggesting that this rally is over-extended and is due to breakdown.
With Greece, Ukraine, and the FOMC Minutes on the cards, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Direction for Wednesday 18 Feb 2015: DOWN▼
Once again the bearish interest doesn’t seem exceptionally strong, which is pretty optimistic going forward. Except until the whole Greece/Ukraine thing blows up.
However, this session saw more defensive cards in play than Tuesday’s session, which could also mean the market is preparing for something big.
Market Summary
from Briefing.com
Industry Watch
Strong: Consumer Staples, Industrials, Utilities
Weak: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Financials, Telecom Services
Other Market Moving Factors
FOMC minutes reveal committee’s desire to delay hiking rates
Reuters confirms Tuesday’s rumors suggesting Greece will ask for a loan extension
Ukraine government forces reportedly withdrawing from Debaltseve
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages finished the Wednesday session on a flat note thanks to a late afternoon crawl that lifted the market off its low. The S&P 500 ended unchanged while the Nasdaq outperformed, adding 0.1%.
For the second day in a row, stocks opened with slim losses and drifted inside narrow ranges until the early afternoon. The S&P 500 spiked off its low and made a brief appearance in the green following the FOMC minutes from the January meeting, but the index was back near its low just 30 minutes later. A second effort in the late afternoon propelled the S&P 500 back to its flat line ahead of the close.
It was a bit surprising to see the market react rather lackadaisically to the FOMC minutes, considering they revealed a high likelihood that the Fed will not be raising rates any time soon due to several risks including declining inflation and weak global growth.
Meanwhile, the Treasury market heard the message and responded with a rally. The 10-yr note reclaimed about half of yesterday’s decline with the benchmark yield dropping six basis points to 2.08%. On a related note, the dollar surrendered its intraday gain following the minutes.
The FOMC minutes overshadowed afternoon reports from the Wall Street Journal indicating the European Central Bank will extend Greece’s Emergency Liquidity Assistance allowance by EUR3.50 billion to EUR68.50 billion for two weeks. However, that may not be enough next week when Greece’s government runs out of cash, according to Kathimerini. German ECB members have recently opposed using ELA funds to finance governments, which may explain the limited scope of the increase.
Furthermore, Greece’s government spokesperson said the government plans to request an extension to the current loan agreement. Until now, Germany has opposed granting unconditional extensions so it remains to be seen whether the request is granted.
Six of ten sectors posted gains, but only three—industrials (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.6%), and utilities (+2.4%)—added more than 0.3%. On the flip side, financials (-0.6%) surrendered their gain from yesterday while the energy sector (-1.2%) was responsible for much of the early weakness.
The energy sector weighed as crude oil returned to yesterday’s intraday low, falling 2.7% to $52.12/bbl.
Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, industrials rallied behind heavyweights like Boeing (BA 151.17, +1.25), General Electric (GE 25.25, +0.08), and Deere (DE 92.75, +2.83) with shares of DE getting a boost after it was reported Berkshire Hathaway invested in the company during Q4.
Transport stocks also contributed to the strength of the industrial sector with the Dow Jones Transportation Average adding 0.4%. Airlines led the way thanks to lower oil prices with United Continental (UAL 66.72, +1.79) surging 2.8%.
Another cyclical group—consumer discretionary (-0.1%)—caught up to the market by the end of the day, but was pressured early by apparel retailers after Fossil (FOSL 83.69, -15.63) disappointed with its earnings/guidance and discussed currency headwinds—a concern that could be echoed by its peers in the coming weeks.
Once again, today’s participation was well below average with just 716 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data included Housing Starts, PPI, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and MBA Mortgage Index:
New housing starts declined 2.0% in January to 1.065 million from a downwardly revised 1.087 million (from 1.089 million) in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop to 1.070 million
After a big rush in single-family starts in December, new single-family construction fell back to November levels, dropping 6.7% to 678,000 from 727,000 in December
Producer prices declined 0.8% in January after declining an upwardly revised 0.2% (from -0.3%) in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline of 0.4%
A large portion of the decline resulted from falling energy prices with prices of total energy goods declining 10.3% in January after a 6.2% drop in December. Gasoline prices dropped 24% in January
Food prices fell 1.1% in January after declining 0.1% in December
Excluding food and energy, core PPI declined 0.1% in January after increasing 0.3% in December while the consensus expected an uptick of 0.1%
Industrial production increased 0.2% in January after declining a downwardly revised 0.3% (from -0.1%) in December while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.4%
Manufacturing production increased 0.2% in January after being flat in December, which was in-line with the national ISM Production Index. The index softened slightly in January to 56.5 from 57.7 in December
The weekly MBA Mortgage Index fell 13.2% to follow last week’s 9.0% decline
Global Markets
ASIA
Asian Markets Close: Nikkei +1.2%, Hang Seng +0.2%, Shanghai Composite (closed for holiday)
Several Asian markets, including China, were closed Wednesday in observance of the Lunar New Year. The markets that were open though generally finished higher, led by the Nikkei, which advanced 1.2%.
Economic data very limited with many markets closed for Lunar New Year:
Australia: CB Leading Index +0.4% month-over-month (prior +0.1%)
Japan’s Nikkei rallied 1.2% and ended at an 8-year high on the back of a weaker yen and the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave its monetary policy stance unchanged. 173 companies in the Nikkei 225 advanced on Wednesday. Sony gained 1.6% after declaring an ambitious operating profit growth target for the next three years. Hitachi (+5.1%) and NEC Corp. (+4.6%), however, were the biggest gainers on the day.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tacked on 0.2%, led by energy components China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (+4.7%), PetroChina (+3.1%), and CNOOC (+2.7%).
China’s Shanghai Composite – closed in observance of Lunar New Year.
India’s Sensex increased 0.6%, leaving it up 6.7% year-to-date. Tata Power Co. (+2.6%), Tata Consultancy Services (+2.0%), and Tata Motors (+1.8%) were three of the four best-performing stocks. Housing Development Finance Corp. (+3.2%) led all issues.
Australia’s ASX jumped 1% and hit a seven-year high. Transportation and logistics company Toll Holdings surged 47% on news of a $5.1 billion acquisition offer from Japan Post Holdings.
Regional advancers: Thailand +1.0%, Indonesia +1.0%, Philippines +0.1%
Regional decliners: Malaysia -0.1%
Regional markets closed for holiday observance: South Korea (Lunar New Year), Taiwan (Lunar New Year) and Vietnam (Lunar New Year)
FX: USD/CNY unch at 6.2541, USD/INR +0.3% at 62.334, USD/JPY +0.04% at 119.30
EUROPE
Major European indices trade mostly higher with Italy’s MIB (+1.5%) pacing the advance. Elsewhere, the Bank of England released the minutes from its latest meeting, showing continued full support for maintaining rates at their current levels.
UK’s Average Earnings Index + Bonus rose 2.1% in December (expected 1.7%; previous 1.8%). Separately, Claimant Count declined 38,600 (expected -25,000; previous -35,800) while the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 5.7% from 5.8% (expected 5.8%)
Spain’s Trade Deficit widened to EUR1.82 billion from EUR1.55 billion (expected deficit of EUR2.00 billion)
Swiss ZEW Expectations fell to -73.0 from -10.8
CLOSING PRICES
UK’s FTSE: 0.0%
Germany’s DAX: + 0.6%
France’s CAC: + 1.0%
Spain’s IBEX: + 0.8%
Portugal’s PSI: + 1.3%
Italy’s MIB Index: + 1.9%
Irish Ovrl Index: + 1.6%
Greece ASE General Index: + 1.1%
Economic Data
from Briefing.com
Economic Data is listed as Actual vs Consensus. Prior Data is given in brackets. If Prior Data has been revised, revised data will be given instead, together with an indication whether it was revised upward or downward.
MBA Mortgage Index – 07:00 : -13.2% (Prior -9.0%)
Housing Starts – 08:30 : 1065K vs 1070K (Prior 1087K▼)
Building Permits – 08:30 : 1053K vs 1065K (Prior 1060K▲)
PPI – 08:30 : -0.8% vs -0.4% (Prior -0.2%▲)
Core PPI – 08:30 : -0.1% vs 0.1% (Prior 0.3%)
Industrial Production – 09:15 : 0.2% vs 0.4% (Prior -0.1%)
Capacity Utilisation – 09:15 : 79.4% vs 79.9% (Prior 79.7%)
FOMC Minutes – 14:00
HOUSING STARTS & BUILDING PERMITS
Highlights
New housing starts declined 2.0% in January to 1.065 mln from a downwardly revised 1.087 mln (from 1.089 mln) in December. The Briefing.com Consensus expected housing starts to fall to 1.070 mln.
Key Factors
After a big rush in single-family starts in December, new single-family construction fell back to November levels. Single-family starts declined 6.7% to 678,000 from 727,000 in December.
The pullback in single-family construction is disappointing. Normally, this sector moves on stable trends. The improvements in the NAHB Homebuilders’ Index during the summer suggested that single-family construction would move steadily higher. The decline in January suggests single-family construction may not have reached the turning point we had hoped for last month.
Multifamily construction levels increased 7.5% in January to 387,000 from 360,000 in December.
The number of units under construction continued to tick higher and increased 1.1% to 839,000 in January from 830,000 in December. Since GDP calculations are based on put-in-place values, the increase in homes under construction bodes well for GDP growth.
Big Picture
Improvements in homebuilder sentiment have not translated into significant construction growth.
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
Highlights
Producer prices declined 0.8% in January after declining an upwardly revised 0.2% (from -0.3%) in December. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the PPI to decline 0.4%.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI declined 0.1% in January after increasing 0.3% in December. The consensus expected these prices to increase 0.1%.
Key Factors
As expected, a large portion of the decline was the result of falling energy prices. Prices of total energy goods declined 10.3% in January after declining 6.2% in December. Gasoline prices dropped 24% in January.
Food prices fell 1.1% in January after declining 0.1% in December.
A reversal in the final demand for services prices (-0.2% in January from +0.3% in December) was a big reason for the decline in core PPI levels. The entire services decline was the result of a 0.8% decline in transportation and warehousing, which was the result of slimmer margins received by producers in this sector.
Pipeline pressures remain muted. Core intermediate processed goods prices declined 1.3% in January after declining 0.6% in December. These prices haven’t increased since August. Core unprocessed intermediate goods prices declined 0.7% in January, which was the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Intermediate services prices declined 0.2% in January after increasing 0.1% in December.
Big Picture
There are no pricing pressures down the producer pipeline. This should keep both consumer and producer price growth in check.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Highlights
Industrial production increased 0.2% in January after declining a downwardly revised 0.3% (from -0.1%) in December. The Briefing.com Consensus expected industrial production to increase 0.4%.
Key Factors
Manufacturing production increased 0.2% in January after being flat in December. The gain was in-line with the national ISM Production Index, which softened slightly in January to 56.5 from 57.7 in December.
Durable goods manufacturing increased 0.4% in January, up from a 0.2% decline in December. Nondurable goods manufacturing was flat in January after posing a 0.4% increase in December. The weakness in nondurable goods production stemmed from a 0.7% decline in petroleum and coal product production.
Motor vehicle assemblies declined to 11.76 mln SAAR in January from 11.93 mln SAAR in December. That was the second consecutive monthly decline.
With low oil prices shifting demand from autos to trucks, auto assemblies declined to 4.08 mln SAAR in January from 7.38 mln SAAR in December. Truck assemblies increased to 7.68 mln SAAR in January from 7.38 mln SAAR in December. That was the most truck assemblies since 8.42 mln SAAR were produced in July 2014.
Utilities production, which was the main catalyst (-6.9%) for the December overall industrial production decline, rebounded a bit in January and increased 2.3%.
Mining production declined 1.0% in January after increasing 2.1% in December.
Big Picture
Industrial production growth has followed a choppy path over the last six months.
FOMC MINUTES
Many participants regarded dropping the “patient” language in the statement, whenever that might occur, as risking a shift in market expectations for the beginning of policy firming toward an unduly narrow range of dates. As a result, some expressed the concern that financial markets might overreact, resulting in undesirably tight financial conditions. Participants discussed some possible communications by which they might further underscore the data dependency of their decision regarding when to tighten the stance of monetary policy.
Many participants indicated that their assessment of the balance of risks associated with the timing of the beginning of policy normalization had inclined them toward keeping the federal funds rate at its effective lower bound for a longer time. Some observed that, even with these risks taken into consideration, the federal funds rate may have already been kept at its lower bound for a sufficient length of time, and that it might be appropriate to begin policy firming in the near term. Regardless of the particular strategy undertaken, it was noted that, provided that the data-dependent nature of the path for the federal funds rate after its initial increase could be communicated to financial markets and the general public in an effective manner, the precise date at which firming commenced would have a less important bearing on economic outcomes.
The staff’s outlook for economic activity over the first half of 2015 was revised up since December, in part reflecting an anticipated boost to consumer spending from declines in energy prices. However, the forecast for real GDP growth over the medium term was little revised, as the greater momentum implied by recent spending gains and the support to household spending from lower energy prices was about offset by the restraint implied by the recent appreciation of the dollar.
However, the increase in the foreign exchange value of the dollar was expected to be a persistent source of restraint on U.S. net exports, and a few participants pointed to the risk that the dollar could appreciate further.
In their discussion of the foreign economic outlook, participants noted that a number of developments over the intermeeting period had likely reduced the risks to U.S. growth. Accommodative policy actions announced by a number of foreign central banks had likely strengthened the outlook abroad. The decline in energy prices was also seen as potentially exerting a stronger-than-anticipated positive effect on growth in the domestic economy and abroad. However, the increase in the foreign exchange value of the dollar was expected to be a persistent source of restraint on U.S. net exports, and a few participants pointed to the risk that the dollar could appreciate further. In addition, the slowdown of growth in China was noted as a factor restraining economic expansion in a number of countries, and several continuing risks to the international economic outlook were cited, including global disinflationary pressure, tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine, and financial uncertainty in Greece. Overall, the risks to the outlook for U.S. economic activity and the labor market were seen as nearly balanced.
Over the intermeeting period, amid trading that was volatile at times, longer-term sovereign yields in the United States and other advanced economies declined. These moves were attributed in part to a deterioration in market sentiment associated with downward pressure on inflation, increased concern about the global economic outlook, and announced and anticipated foreign central bank policies. Moreover, continued sharp declines in oil prices and U.S. economic data releases that were viewed by investors as a bit weaker than anticipated, on balance, reportedly weighed on sentiment.
The effects on the largest banking firms of the sharp decline in oil prices and developments in foreign exchange markets appeared limited, although other institutions with more concentrated exposures could face strains if oil prices remain at current levels for a prolonged period.
Several saw those risks as having diminished over the intermeeting period, with lower oil prices and actions of foreign central banks both being supportive of growth abroad, but others pointed to heightened geopolitical and other risks.
Recent declines in oil prices, which had boosted household purchasing power, were among the factors likely to underpin consumer spending in coming months; other factors cited as supporting household spending included low interest rates, easing credit standards, and continued gains in employment and income.
Several participants noted that there were signs of layoffs in the oil and gas industries, and that persistently low energy prices might prompt a larger retrenchment of employment in these industries. In addition, it was observed that if capital investment in energy-producing industries slowed significantly, it could damp the overall expansion of economic activity for a period, especially if the slowing took place after most of the positive effects of lower energy prices on growth in household spending had occurred.
Although the measure of inflation compensation over the next 5 years based on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) increased, inflation compensation 5 to 10 years ahead declined further to its lowest level in a decade.
The staff’s forecast for inflation in the near term was revised down, as further sharp declines in crude oil prices since the December FOMC meeting pointed toward a somewhat larger transitory decrease in the total PCE price index early this year than was previously projected.
Participants noted that inflation had moved further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices and other transitory factors. A number of participants observed that, with anchored inflation expectations, the fall in energy prices should not leave an enduring imprint on aggregate inflation. It was pointed out that the recent intensification of downward pressure on inflation reflected price movements that were concentrated in a narrow range of items in households’ consumption basket, a pattern borne out by trimmed mean measures of inflation. Several participants remarked that inflation measures that excluded energy items had also moved down in recent months, but these declines partly reflected transitory factors, including downward pressure on import prices and the pass-through of lower energy costs to the prices of non- energy items. Nonetheless, several participants saw the continuing weakness of core inflation measures as a concern. In addition, a few participants suggested that the weakness of nominal wage growth indicated that core and headline inflation could take longer to return to 2 percent than the Committee anticipated. In contrast, a couple of participants suggested that nominal wage growth provides little information about the future behavior of price inflation. Participants also discussed the possibility that, because of the infrequent occurrence of reductions in nominal wages, wages may not have fully adjusted downward in the period of high unemployment, and therefore pent-up wage deflation might have weighed on wage gains for a time during the expansion. If this was the case, nominal wage growth could be expected to pick up in coming periods and to resume a more normal relationship with labor market slack. Most participants expected that continuing reductions in resource slack would be helpful in returning inflation over the medium term to the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, but a few participants voiced concern that nominal wage growth might rise rapidly and inflation might exceed 2 percent for a time.
Technical Analysis
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
18029.85 -17.73 (-0.10%)
Volume: 75,086,561 (below average of 93,309,902)
Range: 17,982.20 – 18,048.70
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
4906.36 +7.10 (+0.14%)
Volume: 410.1M (below average of 444.2M)
Range: 4,885.60 – 4,907.50
S&P500 INDEX
2099.68 -0.66 (-0.03%)
Volume: 458.2M (below average of 526.9M)
Range: 2,092.15 – 2,100.23
Technically speaking the DOW seems to be supported at the 18,000 level, with the other 2 indices being supported alongside it.
However, we continue to push resistance levels and the bullish strength does not seem convincing at all, going forward.
Market Internals
NYSE:
Lower Volumes than the day before – 733.7M vs 780.1M
Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 1680 / 1406
New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 128 / 8
NASDAQ:
Lower Volumes than the day before – 1664.4M vs 1752.3M
Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 1449 / 1308
New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 95 / 32
VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)
15.45 -0.35 (-2.22%)
Advancers outpaced Decliners by 1.15 on lower volumes than the day before (-134.30M -5.30%).
Internals are pretty much conflicted, but lean towards a weakening of bullish strength – check out the decline in the New Highs. The dip in volumes isn’t very encouraging either.
Treasury Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
from Briefing.com
Treasury Bonds
Gains Across the Curve Off of FOMC Minutes:
The FOMC minutes from the January 27-28th meeting sent Treasury yields down sharply
Initial reaction faded towards the equity close (16:00 ET)
After weaker than expected PPI, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization numbers, the Fed minutes may have been the straw that broke the Treasury bear’s back
Not an exceedingly dovish statement, but the market seems to have been caught off-sides after trading down so much since the latest non-farm payroll number
PPI was sharply lower than expected, at -0.8% versus Briefing.com consensus of -0.4%
Capacity utilization was only slightly lower than expected at 79.4% versus Briefing.com consensus of 79.7%, but the December number was also revised down to 79.4% from 79.7%
Industrial production came in at 0.2% versus Briefing.com consensus of 0.4%
Currencies and Commodities:
USD Index gave back all of its gains to 94.06, down 0.01 or 0.01%
Gold traded down below $1200/troy ounce to $1197.80/troy oz., but rallied back after the minutes to $1211.10/troy oz.
WTI crude traded down $1.96 (-3.66%) to $51.57/bbl
Yield Check:
2-yr: -6 bps to 0.61%
5-yr: -8 bps to 1.53%
10-yr: -6 bps to 2.08%
30-yr: -2 bps to 2.71%
Data:
MBA Mortgage Index for the week ending 2/14: Actual -13.2%, Prior -9.0%
January Housing Starts: Actual 1065K, Briefing.com consensus 1070K, Prior revised from 1087K to 1089K
January Building Permits: Actual 1053K, Briefing.com consensus 1065K, Prior revised from 1032K to 1060K
January PPI: Actual -0.8%, Briefing.com consensus -0.4%, Prior revised from -0.3% to -0.2%
January Core PPI: Actual -0.1%, Briefing.com consensus 0.1%, Prior 0.3%
January Industrial Production: Actual 0.2%, Briefing.com forecast 0.0%, Briefing.com consensus 0.4%, Prior -0.3% (revised down from -0.1%)
January Capacity Utilization: Actual 79.4%, Briefing.com forecast 79.7%, Briefing.com consensus 79.9%, Prior 79.4% (revised down from 79.7%)
FOMC minutes:
Generally dovish tone, with many participants saying they would like to see stronger data (growth and inflation) before beginning on the path of policy normalization
2Yr 0.62 (-0.08), 5Yr 1.52 (-0.10), 10Yr 2.07 (-0.07), 30Yr 2.70 (-0.03)
2/10 Spread: 145bps (+1); 2/30 Spread: 208bps (+5)
Currencies
Currency Commentary: DXY Moves Higher Ahead of Fed Minutes
The Dollar Index held 94 in early trade and is seeing a small bid ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC minutes are released (2pm ET). It has been a busy morning on the economic data front. Data from the U.S. continues to underwhelm and miss expectations on the majority of reports. Housing Starts and Permits were mixed but MBA Mortgage Applications, PPI, and Industrial Production all missed expectations. For the minutes, market participants will be paying close attention to the potential removal of ‘patience’, concerns over International markets, the strength in the dollar, and inflation trends.
The euro has slipped back below 1.14 and is under selling pressure as markets await further news on the Greek front. Today, the ECB is expected to rule on another extension of the ELA program to Greek banks. There continues to be reports that Greece will ask for an extension to its current bailout program tomorrow. But it would appear any requests will be tied to demands on a change to the current program. That is unlikely to be met favorably by EU Officials.
The pound rallied above the 1.54 level after the country posted a better than expected jobs number. The Bank of England released its latest minutes which showed the members were unanimous in the decision not to change rates. This is being viewed as dovish as there were some expectations that one or two members could swing back to looking for a hike.
The yen is holding at the 119 level. The Bank of Japan met last night but did not make any changes to its its current programs which were widely expected. 120 will set up as a key level as markets test risk appetite with the EU/Greek debt debates taking center stage (BONDX, FOREX).
Commodities
Closing Commodities: WTI Crude Falls, Closed Just Above $52/Barrel
WTI crude oil lost some steam today and traded in the red
Mar crude finished today’s session $1.42 lower at $52.12/barrel
Meanwhile, Mar natural gas rosr $0.07 to $2.83/MMBtu
RBOB gasoline fell 1.2% (or $0.02) to $1.57/gallon despite news of Exxon’s refinery fire
Metals were mixed today with Mar copper closing $0.03 higher to $2.61/lb and gold and silver declining
Apr gold lost $8.20 to $1200.30/oz, while Mar silver fell $0.08 to $16.29/oz
Energy Price Action
Mar crude oil futures fell $1.42/barrel to $52.12/barrel
Mar natural gas rose $0.07 to $2.83/MMBtu
RBOB Gasoline closed $0.02 lower (-1.2%) at $1.57/gallon
Heating oil closed $0.02 lower at $1.96/gallon
Note:
Natural Gas: Weekly EIA Storage Report data is out tomorrow
RBOB Gasoline: Observe XOM refinery incident for potential reaction in the near term
Agricultural Price Action
Mar corn closed $0.06 lower at $3.84/bushel
Mar wheat closed $0.09 lower at $5.26/bushel
Feb soybeans ended $0.11 lower at $9.97/bushel
Ethanol closed $0.02 lower at $1.44/gallon
Sugar #11 closed 0.05 cents lower at 15.09 cents/lb
Metals Price Action
Apr gold ended today’s session $8.20 lower at $1200.30/oz
Mar silver ended $0.08 lower at $16.29/oz
Mar copper closed $0.03 higher at $2.61/lb
Preview: Thursday 19 Feb 2015
Economic Data
Economic Data is listed as Consensus by default. Prior data will be given in brackets. If Consensus Data is not available, Prior data will be given without brackets. If Prior Data has been revised, the revised data will be given together with an indication whether it was an upward or downward revision.
Initial Claims – 08:30 : 295K (Prior 304K)
Continuing Claims – 08:30 : 2398K (Prior 2354K)
Philadelphia Fed – 10:00 : 9.8 (Prior 6.3)
Leading Indicators – 10:00 : 0.3% (Prior 0.5%)
Natural Gas Inventories – 10:30 : Prior -160bcf
Crude Inventories – 11:00 : Prior 4.868M
Corporate Earnings
BMO : ACTA ADPT AYR ANIP ARIA ATRO BLMN BCC BRC BBW CCC FUN CBB CVI UAN CVRR DAN DWRE DNR DTV DAVE FCN GEL GG HRL HST HII IDA IMAX IRC IDCC LXP LINE LPLA CLI MTRN NM NBL PDCO PDCE PCLN PWR RS SGNT SCG SIX STFC SYNT TK TTC GTS UPL YNDA WMT WST
AMC : ACTG AHS ANET AUQ BAS BEAT BRCD BRKR BLDR CCS CHSP COHU CYH EGO WIRE ETM EQIX EXR FRGI FNGN FR FPO FTR HY SAAS INAP INTU IPCM MRVL MHK MRC NEM NDLS JWN PSA FUEL ROVI SEM SSRI SPNC SPN TEP TSRO TRMR TRUE UEIC WRE XNPT
Other Events of Interest
Fed/Treasury/Political Events
None
Economic Events
Eurozone Current Account Data – 04:00
Commentary
The bullish sentiment is dying and I’m not particularly optimistic going forward.
If the market does attempt to make a further push higher, expect it to be half-willed and a weak effort on low volumes.
Other than that, it’s the Lunar New Year, and here’s wishing everyone a Blessed and Prosperous Lunar New Year.
Direction for Thursday 19 Feb 2015: DOWN▼
Daily Directional Accuracy: 21/26 (80.77%)
Weekly Directional Accuracy: 4/6 (66.67%)