DOW 17068.26 +92.02 (+0.54%), NASDAQ 4485.93 +28.18 (+0.63%),
S&P500 1985.44 +10.82 (+0.55%)
So other than all the US Data (which is a lot, mind you) – we have the ECB Rate Decision to contend with (which is akin to our FOMC Announcements).
How does one call this, then? I quite frankly have no idea. But I’ll take a bet on bullish employment data to move the market for one last rally before the long weekend.
U.S. Equity Markets close at 13:00 EST tomorrow. U.S. Treasury Markets close at 14:00 EST tomorrow. Futures Markets will have abbreviated trading hours. Forex Markets open as usual.
U.S. Equity, Treasury, and Futures Markets will be closed on 4 July (Friday) for Independence Day.
Direction for Thursday 3 Jul: UP▲
Here begins the 3rd Quarter, probably the worst quarter of the entire year. July is the most unpredictable month of the whole year, but remains the best month of Q3.
Given how we ended the previous week, I expect next week to close to the upside, especially given the long weekend ahead. That barring any stunning data from Thursday.
Direction for the Week of 30 Jun to 4 Jul: UP▲
Bam, and we got our catalyst for 17000. What else can I say?
But curiously, ahead of the Independence Day weekend, bonds saw some buying interest. They nonetheless closed in the red, but off their lows. I thought that was worth mentioning.
On the week, I reckon it’s been a good week – quite straight forward without any random surprises. Is this an indication of what Q3 is going to be like? I sure hope so!
Market Summary
Economic Data & News
Technical Analysis
Market Internals
Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
Preview
Market Summary
Industry Watch
Strong: Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Industrials, Materials
Weak: Health Care, Telecom Services, Utilities
Other Market Moving Factors
June nonfarm payrolls beat expectations (288,000 versus Briefing.com consensus 210,000): Unemployment rate slides to 6.1% from 6.3%
Equity market to close early at 13:00 ET: Bond market remains open until 14:00 ET
European Central Bank maintains its policy stance
China’s PMI data remains in expansionary territory: official Non-Manufacturing PMI slips to 55.0 from 55.5 and HSBC Services PMI jumps to 53.1 from 50.7
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market finished the abbreviated trading week on an upbeat note thanks to a boost from a June jobs report that surpassed expectations. The S&P 500 advanced 0.6% with nine sectors posting gains. As a result, the benchmark index extended its weekly gain to 1.3%.
Today’s upbeat tone was set early with the June Nonfarm Payrolls report pointing to the addition of 288,000 jobs (Briefing.com consensus 210,000). In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.1%.
Appropriately, the strong report gave a boost to cyclical sectors, while their countercyclical counterparts struggled a bit in the early going.
Consumer discretionary (+0.8%), financials (+0.8%), and industrials (+0.8%) paced the advance throughout the session and ended ahead of the remaining sectors. The discretionary space owed its outperformance to retailers as the group rallied broadly with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 88.65, +1.15) climbing 1.3%. Homebuilders also posted gains, but the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.94, +0.10), which added 0.4%, could not keep pace with the sector.
Elsewhere, industrials received support from transport stocks. All 30 components of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.8%) finished in the green with airlines posting solid gains to follow yesterday’s relative weakness. United Continental (UAL 39.88, +0.61) led the pack, climbing 1.6%.
Also of note, the financial sector padded its weekly advance to 1.3%.
On the countercyclical side, health care (+0.4%) and telecom services (+0.3%) displayed intraday losses, but returned into the green ahead of the close. The consumer staples sector (+0.6%), however, outperformed due to strength in tobacco names. Lorillard (LO 64.41, +3.26) jumped 5.3% in reaction to reports the company’s merger with Reynolds American (RAI 61.56, +1.40) is on track to be announced within weeks.
Lastly, the utilities sector (-1.1%) displayed relative weakness for the third day in a row, ending the week lower by 3.2% as profit-taking continued.
Treasuries slumped in reaction to today’s data, but spent the remainder of the session in a climb. The benchmark 10-yr yield inched up two basis points to 2.65%.
Economic data included June Nonfarm Payrolls, weekly initial claims, June Challenger Job Cuts, May Trade Balance, and the ISM Services report for June:
Nonfarm payrolls added 288,000 jobs in June after adding an upwardly revised 224,000 (from 217,000). The Briefing.com consensus expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 210,000
Private payrolls were up 262,000 jobs in June after adding 224,000 jobs in May. That outpaced the consensus expectations of a 213,000 increase
The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 6.3%, while the consensus expected no change from 6.3%
The decline resulted from workers finding jobs (+407,000) rather than a drop in the labor force
Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% and hourly workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours, as expected
The weekly initial claims level increased to 315,000 from an upwardly revised 313,000 (from 312,000). The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 315,000
Over the past few weeks, the initial claims level has settled into a range of 310,000 to 320,000 and this week’s claims were no different
The Challenger Job Cuts report for June pointed to a 20.0% year-over-year decline
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May to $44.40 billion from a downwardly revised $47.00 billion (from $47.20 billion) in April. The Briefing.com consensus expected the trade deficit to fall to $45.2 bln
Total goods deficit fell to $63.30 billion in May from $65.70 billion in April. The services surplus increased to $18.90 billion from $18.60 billion
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 56.0 in June from 56.3 in May. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase to 56.5
Business activities softened as the related index declined to 57.5 in June from 62.1 in May as non-manufacturing businesses worked down their backlogs
The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 53.0 from 54.0
There is no economic data on Monday’s schedule.
S&P 500 +7.4% YTD
Nasdaq Composite +7.4% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average +3.0% YTD
Russell 2000 +3.7% YTD
Week in Review: Stocks Rally into Q3
The stock market finished the second quarter on a subdued note with the major averages ending near their flat lines. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%) outperformed throughout the session, while the S&P 500 (-0.04%) surrendered its slim gain into the close. For the quarter, the S&P 500 jumped 4.7%, while the Nasdaq advanced 5.0%. Equity indices displayed losses at the start, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 returned into the green after a better than expected Pending Home Sales report for June (6.1% versus 1.5% Briefing.com consensus) crossed the wires. Despite the early rebound, the S&P 500 ran into resistance in the 1964 area, which served as the high point for the day. Unlike the Nasdaq and S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) could not make a sustained move into the green.
Equities kicked off July and Q3 on a strong note with small caps pacing the rally. The Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 jumped 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.7% with nine sectors ending in the green. Stocks displayed early strength after economic data reported overnight and in the early morning indicated expanding manufacturing activity in China, Japan, the eurozone, and the U.S. Although some of the PMI readings missed estimates, they were all above 50, a level that represents the border between expansion and contraction. The data fostered the bullish tone, which was amplified by the arrival of new money at the start of the quarter. In large part, the advance was powered by four of the most influential sectors. Consumer discretionary (+1.1%), health care (+1.3%), financials (+0.6%), and technology (+1.1%) all jumped to the top of the leaderboard at the open and held their ground throughout the session.
The market spent the Wednesday session in a narrow range, which resulted in the S&P 500 posting a slim gain of less than two points (+0.1%) with six sectors ending in the green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) outperformed slightly, while the Russell 2000 (-0.4%) lagged. The major averages climbed out of the gate, but the early strength was short-lived as only a handful of sectors were able to distance themselves from their flat lines. The lack of concerted sector leadership caused the key indices to return to their flat lines, where they remained into the close. One sector that displayed notable strength throughout the session was the leader from Tuesday—health care. The countercyclical group added 0.7% with biotechnology underpinning the advance. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) tacked on 0.5%.
Global Markets
Asia
Markets ended mixed across Asia
Japan’s Nikkei (-0.1%) slipped off five-month highs
On the Mainland, China’s Shanghai Composite (+0.2%) gained for a fifth straight session on the mixed Non-Manufacturing PMI (55.0 actual v. 55.5 previous) and HSBC Services PMI (53.1 actual v. 50.7 expected) readings
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.1%) eased off its best levels of 2014
Australia’s ASX (+0.7%) was boosted by dovish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens as he again made reference to the Aussie dollar being too strong
A quiet trade in India saw the Sensex (-0.1%) slip off yesterday’s record close
Europe
UK’s FTSE: + 0.2%
Germany’s DAX: + 1.2%
France’s CAC: + 1.0%
Spain’s IBEX: + 0.7%
Portugal’s PSI: -0.2%
Italy’s MIB Index: + 1.0%
Irish Ovrl Index: + 1.8%
Greece ASE General Index: + 0.5%
Economic Data
from Briefing.com
Economic Data is listed as Actual vs Consensus. Prior Data is given in brackets. If Prior Data has been revised, revised data will be given instead, together with an indication whether it was revised upward or downward.
THURSDAY 3 JUL
Challenger Job Cuts – 07:30 : -20.2% (Prior 45.5%)
Nonfarm Payrolls – 08:30 : 288K vs 210K (Prior 224K▲)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls – 08:30 : 262K vs 213K (Prior 224K▲)
Unemployment Rate – 08:30 : 6.1% vs 6.3% (Prior 6.3%)
Hourly Earnings – 08:30 : 0.2% vs 0.2% (Prior 0.2%)
Average Workweek – 08:30 : 34.5 vs 34.5 (Prior 34.5)
Initial Claims – 08:30 : 315K vs 315K (Prior 313K▲)
Continuing Claims – 08:30 : 2579K vs 2580K (Prior 2568K▼)
Trade Balance – 08:30 : -$44.4B vs -$45.2B (Prior -$47.0B▲)
ISM Services – 10:00 : 56.0 vs 56.5 (Prior 56.3)
Natural Gas Inventories – 10:30 : 100bcf (Prior 110bcf)
EMPLOYMENT DATA (Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Earnings, Workweek)
Highlights
Nonfarm payrolls added 288,000 jobs in June after adding an upwardly revised 224,000 (from 217,000) in May. The Briefing.com consensus expected nonfarm payrolls to increase by 210,000.
Private payrolls were up 262,000 jobs in June after adding 224,000 jobs in May. That outpaced the consensus expectations of a 213,000 increase.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in June from 6.3% in May. The consensus expected the unemployment rate to remain at 6.3%.
Key Factors
Over the past few weeks, the unemployment claims data have shown significant improvement in overall labor market conditions. The drop in initial claims suggested that payroll growth would accelerate from its roughly 200,000 per month pace. While gains in payrolls were never guaranteed – in the past we’ve seen claims fall as businesses reduced layoffs due to the satisfaction with the size of their work-staff – the new level of claims implied payroll growth nearer to 300,000 per month.
That was roughly what occurred in June. The improvement in labor market conditions, implied by the jobless numbers, were confirmed in this months payroll data.
The details of the report were strong.
Goods-producing industries added 26,000 jobs and the service-providing added 236,000 jobs.
Outsized gains in retail trade, up 40,200 in June after adding 10,500 jobs in May, offset slower growth in health care services, which added 33,700 new jobs in June after adding 58,800 jobs in May.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% in June, the same rate as May. The hourly workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours.
Altogether, the gains in payrolls combined with the increase in average hourly earnings and the unchanged hourly workweek resulted in a 0.5% increase in aggregate earnings. That is up from a 0.4% gain in May and should provide enough support for a strong retail sales increase.
Importantly, the decline in the unemployment rate was a result of workers finding jobs (+407,000) and not from a drop in the labor force. This is another sign of actual labor market improvements and not a statistical anomaly.
The labor force participation rate remained at 62.8% for a third consecutive month.
If there was one negative in the report it was that 275,000 of the 407,000 newly employed workers were only able to find part time work due to business conditions. This type of employment growth will keep downward pressure on overall income growth.
Big Picture
The acceleration in payroll growth confirms the improvements in labor market conditions implied by the recent decline in unemployment claims.
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
Highlights
The initial claims level increased to 315,000 for the week ending June 28 from an upwardly revised 313,000 (from 312,000) for the week ending June 21. The Briefing.com consensus expected the initial claims level to increase to 315,000.
The continuing claims level increased to 2.579 mln for the week ending June 21 from a downwardly revised 2.568 mln (from 2.571 mln) for the week ending June 14. The consensus expected the continuing claims level to increase to 2.580 mln.
Key Factors
Over the past few weeks, the initial claims level has settled into a range of 310,000 to 320,000. This weeks claims were no different. Labor market conditions remain strong.
Big Picture
Claims data over the past few weeks confirm a general improvement in labor market conditions.
TRADE BALANCE
Highlights
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May to $44.4 bln from a downwardly revised $47.0 bln (from $47.2 bln) in April. The Briefing.com consensus expected the trade deficit to fall to $45.2 bln.
Key Factors
Total goods deficit fell to $63.3 bln in May from $65.7 bln in April. The services surplus increased to $18.9 bln from $18.6 bln.
Exports increased 1% to $195.5 bln in May from $193.5 bln in April. Much of that gain, however, came from a $0.4 bln unsustainable gain in exports of gem diamonds. Capital goods exports fell $1.7 bln, in large part due to $0.5 bln decline in civilian aircraft shipments. Exports of automotive vehicles and parts increased by $0.8 bln and shipments of industrial supplies and products were up $0.2 bln.
Imports fell 0.3% to $239.8 bln from $240.5 bln. Shipments of imported cellphones, which boosted imports over the past few months, fell by $0.5 bln. These will likely remain low until Apple (AAPL) releases their next generation iPhone in September. A $2.1 bln decline in crude oil imports led an overall $1.7 bln decline in imports of industrial supplies and materials. Imports growth of both capital goods ($1.0 bln) and automotive vehicles and parts ($1.3 bln) exceeded the $1.0 bln mark.
The petroleum net export deficit fell to $15.2 bln in May. That was the lowest deficit since December 2013.
Big Picture
The narrowing of petroleum trade deficit was instrumental in the drop in the overall trade balance.
ISM SERVICES
Highlights
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index fell to 56.0 in June from 56.3 in May. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to increase to 56.5.
Key Factors
Business activities softened as the related index declined to 57.5 in June from 62.1 in May as non-manufacturing businesses worked down their backlogs. The Backlog of Orders Index fell to 53.0 from 54.0.
The New Orders Index increased to 61.2 in June from 60.5 in May, confirming firm demand.
The Employment Index increased from 52.4 in May to 54.2 in June.
Big Picture
The market generally doesn’t pay much attention to the services index because the services sector is less cyclical than the manufacturing sector. To that end, June marked the 53th consecutive month in which economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector has expanded.
In Other News…
HEADLINE NEWS
Pershing files written request for special meeting in connection with the calling of a special meeting of shareholders of Allergan (AGN)
Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 rumored to launch September 25, according to reports (in line with recent Fall release speculation)
BIND Therapeutics (BIND) will not be exercising option to develop an Accurin incorporating the Amgen (AMGN) therapeutic payload
General Motors Canada (GM) announced that total GM Canada sales were down 15% in June 2014
Hillshire Brands (HSH) discloses that merger agreement with Tyson (TSN) includes an ~$261.3 mln termination fee
Impax Labs (IPXL) acquires two products from Actavis (ACT); Ursodiol tablet and Lamotrigine orally disintegrating tablet; terms not disclosed
PetSmart (PETM): Jana Partners discloses 9.9% stake in SC 13D filing; intends to have discussions with board of directors and management regarding exploring a sale
Popular (BPOP) completes repayment of TARP funds
EARNINGS/GUIDANCE
Intl Speedway (ISCA) beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides FY14 EPS in-line, revs in-line
Synnex (SNX) beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs above consensus
Walgreens (WAG) reports June same store sales +7.5% vs +6.8% Retail Metrics consensus
ANALYST ACTIONS
Upgrades
Athlon Energy (ATHL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
Constellation Brands (STZ) target raised to $102 at RBC Capital Mkts; target raised to $113 at Stifel
Cree (CREE) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer
Rightmove (RTMVY) added to Buy List at Citigroup
Downgrades
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) target lowered to $20 at FBR Capital
Coach (COH) target lowered to $30 from $39 at Credit Suisse
Comerica (CMA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigrou
Lazard (LAZ) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James
Initiations/Resumptions
AstraZeneca (AZN) resumed with a Underweight at JP Morgan
Cummins (CMI) reiterated with a Buy at Argus; tgt $170
PORTFOLIO NEWS
Raytheon (RTN) awarded $163m AMRAAM contract to be completed by 2017. Read Article.
Boeing (BA) reports Q2 Deliveries. Read Article.
Technical Analysis
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
17068.26 +92.02 (+0.54%)
Volume: 66.7M (below average of 82.1M)
Range: 16979.00 – 17074.65
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
4485.93 +28.20 (+0.63%)
Volume: 296.1M (below average of 486.9M)
Range: 4463.85 – 4485.93
S&P500 INDEX
1985.44 +10.82 (+0.55%)
Volume: 366.5M (below average of 483.2M)
Range: 1975.88 – 1985.59
I reckon this run still has legs to go. I maintain my targets for DOW 17200, NASDAQ 4500, and S&P500 1900-2000.
If we do reverse, I’ll look for immediate support at DOW 17000, NASDAQ 4400, and S&P500 1970.
Market Internals
NYSE:
Lower Volumes than the day before – 402.6M vs 559.6M
Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 1745 / 1297
New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 177 / 6
NASDAQ:
Lower Volumes than the day before – 986.3M vs 1577.7M
Advancers outpaced Decliners (adv/dec): 1776 / 861
New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 120 / 16
VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)
10.32 -0.50 (-4.62%)
Advancers outpaced Decliners by an average of 1.63 on lower volumes than the day before (-748.4M -35%).
I wouldn’t read into the sharp drop in volumes too much as we had a short session on Thursday. Suffice to say, if you double the volumes you’ll get pretty strong numbers. Except the market doesn’t work that way.
I would like to highlight that the VIX – at 10.32 – is at its lowest since 2007. That’s quite frankly a scary thought.
Treasury Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
from Briefing.com
Treasury Bonds
The Week in Review
Treasuries were pressured this week as the start of the third quarter and the strong June nonfarm payroll report sparked selling across the complex.
Maturities saw mid-week selling as traders moved money into riskier assets at the start of the quarter and shed safer ones such as Treasuries.
Thursday’s strong nonfarm payroll report (288K actual v. 210K expected) sparked early selling, but maturities were able to trim their losses into the cash close.
This week’s other employment data was also strong as ADP Employment Change (281K actual v. 200K expected), nonfarm private payrolls (262K actual v. 213K expected), and the unemployment rate (6.1% actual v. 6.3% expected) all outpaced estimates.
However, the rest of the week’s data was mixed. ISM Index (55.3 actual v. 55.8 expected), construction spending (0.1% actual v. 0.4% expected), and factory orders (-0.5% actual v. -0.4% expected) all missed while Chicago PMI (62.6 actual v. 61.0 expected) and pending home sales (6.1% actual v. 1.5% expected) beat.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke at the IMF, but her comments carried little weight as they provided nothing new.
Up front, the 2y rallied +5bps to 0.512% and settled at its highest level since the debt ceiling debate back in September. A run above the 0.530% area would put the yield at levels last seen in May 2011, shortly before the U.S. lost its ‘AAA’ rating at S&P.
In the belly, the 5y added +11bps to finish @ 1.740%. Post-nonfarm payroll selling ran the yield up to 1.780% where it contended with its highest close in three months; however, action slipped back below the June highs (1.750%) before the cash close.
The 10y climbed +12bps to 2.648%. The benchmark yield saw a test of the 2.700% level and the 200 dma amid Thursday’s sell off, but finished the week below the June closing high (2.655%) and the 100 dma.
At the long end, the 30y jumped +12bps to 3.483%. Action probed the key 3.500% before dipping back below the mark into week-end.
A steeper curve developed as the 2-10-yr spread widened to 213.5bps and the 5-30-yr spread loosened to 174.5bps.
2Yr 0.52 (+0.03), 5Yr 1.74 (+0.03), 10Yr 2.65 (+0.01), 30Yr 3.47 (+0.01)
2/10 Spread: 213bps (-2); 2/30 Spread: 295bps (-2)
Currencies
Dollar Holds Post-Nonfarm Payroll Gains: 10-yr: -08/32..2.659%..USD/JPY: 102.19..EUR/USD: 1.3610
The Dollar Index holds just off session highs as trade tests the 80.25 level.
The greenback spiked to 80.30 in response to the strong June nonfarm payroll report, and has post-trade trade in a tight 10 cent range.
The euro was pushed to session lows near 1.3595, hit by the one-two punch of today’s U.S. nonfarm payroll report and the ECB rate decision/Mario Draghi press conference. The ECB held policy unchanged, and the accompanying Mario Draghi press conference provided a framework on the TLTROs and news that beginning in 2015 the central bank would hold policy meetings every six weeks (currently every four weeks). A breakdown of the 1.3600 level puts the important 1.3500 support area in the crosshairs.
The pound has rallied off its worst levels of the session, and now holds small losses near 1.7145. Expectations that the Bank of England will be the first major Western central bank to hike rates and emerge from the crisis continue to provide support for sterling.
The yen holds just off session lows as trade tests the 102.20 level. Three days of selling have shaved off close to 90 pips and has action at a four-week low.
Commodities
Morning Commodities: Nat Gas At New HoD Following Inventory Data
Energy futures are lower this morning, metals are mixed and ag is mostly lower
Natural gas sold off this morning and was sitting news its LoD around $4.34/MMBtu just ahead of the weekly EIA inventory data
Following the data, nat gas initially spiked back to its HoD of $4.39/MMBtu. It just hit a new HoD of $4.41/MMBtu and remains there, up 1.2%.
Crude oil is down again as Iraq concerns decline. The Aug contract is currently -0.7% at $103.76/barrel
Gold and silver have been in the red all day today so far. Following this morning’s employment econ data, gold and silver extended losses to new session lows
In current trade, Aug gold is -0.7% at $1321.10/oz, while Sept silver is -0.5% at $21.19/oz
Copper futures spiked a short while ago back into positive territory. Aug contract is currently +0.4% at $3.28/lb
Preview: Friday 4 Jul
Economic Data
Economic Data is listed as Consensus by default. Prior data will be given in brackets. If Consensus Data is not available, Prior data will be given without brackets.
FRIDAY 4 JUL
There are no U.S. Data releases tomorrow.
Corporate Earnings
FRIDAY 4 JUL
There will be no earnings announcements tomorrow.
Other Events of Interest
German Industrial Production – 04:00
Japan Trade Balance – 19:00
Conclusion
U.S. Markets will be closed on 4 July for Independence Day. Other markets around the world remain open, however.
It’s been a nicely profitable week, and the economic releases only confirm what I recently discussed on my blog. But this marks the end of the Q3 honeymoon. Except heightened volatility next week as the market returns from the long weekend.
To all the Americans, Happy Independence Day!
Daily Directional Accuracy (from 14 May 2014): 24/35 (68.57%)
Weekly Directional Accuracy (from 16 May 2014): 4/7 (57.14%)