DOW 17051.73 -48.45 (-0.28%), NASDAQ 4424.70 -7.44 (-0.17%),
S&P500 1973.63 -4.59 (-0.23%)
Ugh. I have no idea how to call this.
I have a nasty feeling we’ll go down though.
Direction for Monday 21 Jul: DOWN▼
Somehow, given the current geopolitical circumstances, the market doesn’t seem to be as afraid as it should be. Yes, there’s definitely some caution being raised, but most of it is surprisingly thrown into the wind. It’s scary, especially when you think about the possibilities that the current situation in Ukraine and Israel could develop into.
The first half of the day saw a solid sell-down and a rapid flow of cash into the bond market. The second half of the day saw a gradual climb back up to the neutral lines. Odd…
Market Summary
Economic Data & News
Technical Analysis
Market Internals
Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
Preview
Market Summary
Industry Watch
Strong: Energy
Weak: Health Care, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary
Other Market Moving Factors
Geopolitical concerns linked to Israel’s ground invasion of Gaza and the threat of new sanctions against Russia
Relative strength in technology and energy sectors
Waiting for large slate of earnings results
[BRIEFING.COM] Just like the geopolitical environment, things could have been better today for the stock market and they could have been worse. They were worse in the early going as the major indices backpedaled quickly at the start of trading. The ostensible catalysts for the opening retreat were geopolitical concerns over Israel’s ground assault in Gaza and the troublesome diplomatic dealings in the wake of Malaysian Air flight MH17 being shot down over eastern Ukraine last week.
At their lows of the morning, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down 126, 28, and 12 points, respectively. They would eventually battle back, though, to pare their losses, aided by the following factors:
Technical support holding at 1966 for the S&P 500
A small sense of relief that remarks from President Obama today did not include the imposition of any new sanctions against Russia
There is some underlying concern that new economic sanctions will lead to deleterious economic developments more broadly and for the European Union in particular
Relative strength in the technology and energy sectors
The inability to sustain larger losses, which prompted some buy-the-dip activity
Overall, it was a subdued start to the week for the stock market, which was also cognizant that a flood of earnings results will pour in starting on Tuesday. To that end, today’s session could be characterized as a period of wait-and-see on both the geopolitical and earnings fronts. That mentality manifested itself in the low volume at the NYSE where only 530 mln shares traded hands versus a recent average of 658 mln shares.
Notwithstanding today’s leading headlines, there wasn’t a strong flight-to-safety trade. The 10-yr note ended up two ticks, gold prices rose a modest 0.3%, the health care (-0.4%), utilities (-0.1%), consumer staples (-0.4%), and telecom services (-0.3%) sectors all finished lower, and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 12.49, +0.43) was ultimately reined in after an opening burst of buying interest took it up as much as 13%.
At the same time, the Russell 2000, which fell as much as 1.0% early in the day, recouped a good portion of its losses and ended the session down 0.4%.
There wasn’t a lot of absolute strength in the stock market today, but pockets of strength in the large-cap universe helped limit today’s losses. To that end, the likes of Intel (INTC 34.06, +0.36), Boeing (BA 128.30, +0.66), Microsoft (MSFT 44.84, +0.15), Goldman Sachs (GS 171.72, +0.25), Chevron (CVX 131.29, +0.90), and ExxonMobil(XOM 103.08, +0.35) provided some cover for a beleaguered broader market.
Every sector ended down today with the exception of the energy sector (+0.2%). It followed crude prices higher ($104.89, +$1.75) and benefited from the outperformance of its sector heavyweights in the integrated oil group. Losses for the remaining nine sectors ranged from 0.1% to 0.5%.
There wasn’t any economic data today, but that will change on Tuesday with the release of the CPI (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%) and Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 5.00 mln) reports. That data will be processed alongside a bevy of earnings reports that will include results from six Dow components: Coca-Cola (KO 42.40, -0.03), DuPont (DD 65.54, -0.01), McDonald’s (MCD 97.55, -1.44), Travelers (TRV 95.26, -0.08), United Technologies (UTX 112.98, -0.59), and Verizon (VZ 50.70, -0.05).
Global Markets
Asia
Markets finished mixed across Asia
Japan’s Nikkei was closed in observation of Marine Day
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.3%) slipped off its best levels of 2014
China’s Shanghai Composite (-0.2%) held the 50 and 100 dma as selling took hold ahead of another wave of IPOs
India’s Sensex (+0.3%) posted a fifth straight day of gains
Australia’s ASX (+0.2%) closed at its best level in more than six years
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite (+0.8%) rallied ahead of report Joko Widodo will be declared the winner of the country’s presidential election
Europe
UK’s FTSE: -0.3%
Germany’s DAX: -1.1%
France’s CAC: -0.7%
Spain’s IBEX: -0.4%
Portugal’s PSI: + 0.1%
Italy’s MIB Index: -1.5%
Irish Ovrl Index: -0.4%
Greece ASE General Index: -0.8%
Economic Data
from Briefing.com
Economic Data is listed as Actual vs Consensus. Prior Data is given in brackets. If Prior Data has been revised, revised data will be given instead, together with an indication whether it was revised upward or downward.
No U.S. Economic Data
In Other News…
HEADLINE NEWS
CBS Outdoor Americas (CBSO) announced acquisition of premium outdoor assets from Van Wagner Communications for $690 mln in cash; immediately accretive to AFFO per share
Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) mails open letter to shareholders; reduced our slate from nine to seven candidates; the Board will enable Casablanca to enact a value-destructive plan, including a ‘fire sale’ of Cliffs’ assets at the bottom of the commodity cycle
Activist wants EMC (EMC) to break itself up, according to reports
FMC Tech (FTI) announces agreement with Anadarko (APC), BP (BP), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Shell (RDS.A) to develop the next generation of subsea production equipment
NRG Energy (NRG) acquires its first public solar facility in the U.S. Virgin Islands
Reynolds American (RAI)ordered to pay $23 bln over lung cancer death, according to reports
SanDisk (SNDK) and Toshiba (TOSBF) wants $1.1 bln in damages from Hynix related to NAND leak, according to reports
Valeant Pharma (VRX) contacts Quebec and U.S. Regulators about Allergan’s (AGN) ‘False and Misleading Statements’
Varian Medical (VAR) receives FDA 510(k) clearance for Calypso soft tissue Beacon transponder
Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) have lost Court ruling related to swipe fees, according to reports (original headlines out Friday prior to the close)
YUM! Brands (YUM) and McDonalds (MCD) may get involved in another food safety issue in China, according to reports
EARNINGS/GUIDANCE
Allergan (AGN) beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs in-line; raises FY14 guidance; guides FY15 EPS above consensus
BB&T Corp (BBT) misses by $0.05, reports revs in-line
Eaton (ETN) sees Q2 adjusted EPS of $1.10-1.12 (narrowed from $1.05-1.15) vs $1.18 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate
Halliburton (HAL) reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; co also added $4.8 bln to share repurchase plan, now at $6 bln
Hasbro (HAS) reports EPS in-line, misses on revs
Manpower (MAN) beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus
Six Flags (SIX) beats by $0.03, misses on revs
SunTrust Banks (STI) beats by $0.05, reports revs in-line
ANALYST ACTIONS
Upgrades
Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities
Baidu.com (BIDU) upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
Fifth Third (FITB) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird
IMAX (IMAX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital; tgt raised to $70
M&T Bank (MTB) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $141 from $125
Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Buy at Belus Capital Advisors
Downgrades
Coca-Cola (KO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Societe Generale
Monster Beverage (MNST) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Other
Apple (AAPL) tgt raised to $115 from $100 at UBS; Buy
Cisco Systems (CSCO) target raised to $28 at RBC Capital Mkts
Discover Financial Services (DFS) target raised to $71 at RBC Capital Mkts
Dover (DOV) target raised to $97 at RBC Capital Mkts
GoPro (GPRO) initiated with a Neutral at Robert W. Baird; initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $45; initiated with a Overweight at JP Morgan, tgt $51
Technical Analysis
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
17051.73 -48.45 (-0.28%)
Volume: 67,590,253 (below average of 78,394,300)
Range: 16974.34 – 17080.27
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
4363.45 -62.52 (-1.41%)
Volume: 379.4M (below average of 465.9M)
Range: 4404.51 – 4432.42
S&P500 INDEX
1979.63 -4.59 (-0.23%)
Volume: 397.4M (below average of 461.3M)
Range: 1955.59 – 1981.80
Bearish haramis / hanging men on the DOW and S&P500. Doji on the NASDAQ.
Ultimately, it doesn’t exactly look like we’re going up…
Market Internals
NYSE:
Lower Volumes than the day before – 541.4M vs 753.8M
Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1125 / 1925
New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 86 / 27
NASDAQ:
Lower Volumes to the day before – 1552.5M vs 1798.6M
Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1032 / 1668
New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 51 / 42
VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)
12.81 +0.75 (+6.22%)
Decliners outpaced Advancers by 1.67 on lower volumes than the day before (-458.5M -17.96%).
Ultimately a bearish day, and not at all bullish. Seems that the rally in the 2nd half was nothing more than short covering.
The VIX closed in a doji. I don’t think it’s going any lower.
Treasury Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
from Briefing.com
Treasury Bonds
30y Closes at 3.264%, 13-Month Low:
Treasuries ended mixed.
Maturities rallied to their best levels as equities were pressured at the open, but surrendered a good amount of their gains as shares recovered.
Buying at the long end dropped the 30y -2.8bps to 3.264%. The yield on the long bond ended the day with its lowest close in 13 months.
The 10y fell -1bp to 2.474%. Action probed 2.450% early in the session before paring its gains.
The 5y lagged, climbing +1.9bps to 1.685%. The yield saw a continued bounce off support that is defended by the 50 and 100 dma.
The yield curve flattened with the 2-10-yr spread tightening to 198.5bps.
2Yr 0.51 (unch), 5Yr 1.70 (+0.01), 10Yr 2.49 (-0.01), 30Yr 3.26 (-0.03)
2/10 Spread: 198bps (-1); 2/30 Spread: 275bps (-3)
Currencies
Dollar Drifts Flat: 10-yr: +01/32..2.470%..USD/JPY: 101.36..EUR/USD: 1.3522
The Dollar Index drifts little changed near 80.55. Click here to see a daily Dollar Index chart.
A quiet session has seen most of the day’s action spent in a tight five cent range.
EURUSD is flat @ 1.3525 as trade hovers unchanged for a third session. An overnight bid ran the single currency up to the 1.3550 level before early morning selling wiped away those gains. Support in the 1.3500/1.3525 area remains under close watch.
GBPUSD is -15 pips @ 1.7070 as sellers remain in control for a fourth session. Today’s weakness has sterling looking at its lowest close of July, and has action nearing 1.6950/1.7000 support. British data includes public sector net borrowing and CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
USDCHF is unchanged @ .8980. Recent action has struggled at the .9000 level as sellers have worked hard to prevent the best close in more than five months. Switzerland’s trade balance is due out tomorrow.
USDJPY is +5 pips @ 101.35 as trade ticks higher for a second session. The light bid comes amid a lackluster session as Japanese banks were closed for Marine Day. Support near 101.25 remains critical.
AUDUSD is -15 pips @ .9375. Action over much of the past three weeks has been stuck in a tight range between .9350/.9400. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens will speak tonight in Sydney.
USDCAD is flat @ 1.0730. An uneventful trade has seen action confined to just 25 pips.
Commodities
Closing Commodities: Crude Oil Rises 1.5%, Closes Near $103.50
Aug gold rose for a fourth consecutive session as geopolitical tension over Russia and Ukraine continued. The yellow metal pulled back from its session high of $1317.90 per ounce set at pit trade open but stayed above the unchanged line.
It brushed a session low of $1310.80 per ounce and settled with a 0.3% gain at $1313.90 per ounce. Sep silver dipped to a session low of $20.92 per ounce after trading as high as $21.15 in early morning floor action. It inched slightly higher heading into the close and settled at $21.01 per ounce, or 0.5% higher.
Aug crude oil traded in positive territory, lifting from a session low of $103.48 per barrel set in early morning action.
It continued to trend higher and settled with a 1.5% gain at $104.65 per barrel, just below its session high of $104.72 per barrel.
Aug natural gas, on the other hand, spent the entire pit session in the red. It traded as low as $3.83 per MMBtu, its lowest level since November 2013. Unable to gain momentum, it settled 2.8% lower at $3.84 per MMBtu.
NYMEX Energy Closing Prices
Aug crude oil rose $1.51 to $104.65/barrel
Aug natural gas fell 11 cents to $3.84/MMBtu
Aug heating oil rose 1 cent to $2.86/gallon
Aug RBOB rose 4 cents to $2.89/gallon
CBOT Agriculture and Ethanol/ICE Sugar Closing Prices
Sep corn fell 7 cents to $3.64/bushel
Sep wheat fell 5 cents to $5.30/bushel
Aug soybeans rose 2 cents to $11.77/bushel
Sep ethanol fell 2 cents to $1.98/gallon
Sep sugar (#16 (U.S.)) rose 0.12 of a penny to 24.50 cents/lbs
COMEX Metals Closing Prices
Aug gold rose $4.00 to $1313.90/oz
Gold rose for a fourth consecutive session as tension over Russia and Ukraine continued. The yellow metal pulled back from a session high of $1317.90 set at pit trade open but stayed in positive territory. It brushed a session low of $1310.80 and settled with a 0.3% gain.
Sep silver rose $0.11 to $21.01/oz
Silver dipped to a session low of $20.92 after trading as high as $21.15 in early morning floor action. It inched slightly higher heading into the close and settled with a 0.5% gain.
Sep copper rose 2 cents to $3.20/lbs
Preview: Tuesday 22 Jul
Economic Data
Economic Data is listed as Consensus by default. Prior data will be given in brackets. If Consensus Data is not available, Prior data will be given without brackets.
CPI – 08:30 : 0.3% (Prior 0.4%)
Core CPI – 08:30 : 0.2% (Prior 0.3%)
FHFA Housing Price Index – 09:00 : Prior 0.0%
Existing Home Sales – 10:00 : 5.00M (Prior 4.89M)
Corporate Earnings
BMO :
ABB APD APH BEAV BIIB BA CHKP CKSW CNMD COR DAL DOW EMC EVR FDML FCF FCX GD HERO HCBK JAKK JNS KNX LSTR LAD MKTX BABY NYCB NSC NOC OIIM OCR OC PEP PCH PX ROL RES R SEIC SLGN SPG STM TEL MDCO TMO TUP UTL GRA WHR
AMC :
EGHT ALGT AWH ALSN ANGI ANGO AHL AIZ AF T AVB BDN CA CAKE CHE CRUS CTXS CLW CLB CLGX CMRE CSGP CVTI CCI CVBF ETFC EFX ETH RE FFIV FB FR FLS FTNT GILD GGG HBI HWAY HMN IBKC ILMN INFN TILE IPCM KALU LHO MAC MBFI MSA MKSI NSR NVEC NXPI ORLY OII OFG OHI PLCM PTC QCOM QTM RJF SLM SGMO TAL TER TEX TCBI TMK TSCO TRIP TQNT TOUR TYL UMPQ USTR VAR VTL WFT WERN
Other Events of Interest
Fed/Treasury/Political Events
Senate Corporate Tax Hearing – 10:00
Economic Events
Euro Area Government Debt – 03:30
Analyst/Investor Meetings
None
Conclusion
I continue to maintain that the geopolitical movements will take centre stage. Which means that any developments out of Ukraine or Israel will potentially move this market – up or down.
Which means that for now, caution will be name of the game.
Direction for Tuesday 22 Jul: DOWN▼
Daily Directional Accuracy (from 14 May 2014): 30/46 (65.22%)
Weekly Directional Accuracy (from 16 May 2014): 5/9 (55.56%)