DOW 17164.95 -251.90 (-1.45%), NASDAQ 4635.24 -48.17 (-1.03%),
S&P500 1994.99 -26.26 (-1.30%)
Today seems like an over-extended buy-the-dip rally that got overhyped. If not, it’s an over-extended short-covering rally in anticipation of the GDP number tomorrow.
Whichever it is, tomorrow is the GDP number and this can easily go anywhere.
Direction for Friday 30 Jan 2015: ABSTAIN
That is to be expected. GDP numbers came in way under expectations. What’s interesting is that the market did make some attempt to stay afloat until the afternoon session, before driving lower to the close. In fact, mid-day the NASDAQ and S&P500 were flirting with the green…
Market Summary
from Briefing.com
Industry Watch
Strong: Energy
Weak: Consumer Staples, Health Care, Financials, Industrials, Utilities
Other Market Moving Factors
Advance reading of Q4 GDP misses estimates (2.6%; Briefing.com consensus 3.2%)
S&P 500 -1.8% week-to-date, entering today
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended a down month on a sharply lower note. The Dow (-1.5%) and S&P 500 (-1.3%) widened their respective January losses to 3.7% and 3.1% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%) lost 2.1%. Furthermore, this marked the first time since early 2012 that the market registered losses in two consecutive months.
The key indices struggled at the start after a disappointing GDP report for the fourth quarter introduced a new wrinkle into a deteriorating outlook for global growth. Overnight, Japan and the eurozone saw a slowdown in their respective inflation data while a handful of U.S. companies joined a growing chorus of names that have reduced their guidance for the first quarter. On that note, consensus Q1 earnings growth has contracted to just 0.2% from 8.6% on December 1, according to S&P Capital IQ.
Equities followed their lower open with another slip, but the S&P 500 turned around just north of the 2,000 level and spent the afternoon working back to its flat line. The rebound coincided with a Der Spiegel report indicating Germany is ready to back EUR20 billion in aid for Greece, but the package would be contingent on Greece accepting reform conditions imposed by the troika. This contrasted with earlier comments from Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis who said Greece will no longer negotiate with the troika. Furthermore, Germany’s government was quick to deny the report from Der Spiegel.
The afternoon rebound also featured a surge in crude oil, which spiked to end the day higher by 8.0% at $48.17/bbl. However, crude notched its high just ahead of the 14:30 ET pit close and inched away from that level in electronic trade while the S&P 500 slumped back below its 100-day moving average (2,010) to a new low.
Nine of ten sectors registered losses while energy (+0.7%) benefitted from the spike in crude. However, today’s surge was a small victory considering the sector lost 4.9% in January. Dow component Chevron (CVX 102.53, -0.47) shed 0.5% after its plans to cut capital expenditures by 13.0% overshadowed better than expected results.
Speaking of the Dow, the index stayed near the S&P 500, but a 2.8% spike in the shares of Visa (V 254.91, +6.91) masked the fact that 15 of 30 Dow members lost more than 2.0% while four of the 15 tumbled 3.0% or more. As for Visa, the payment processor spiked after beating estimates and announcing a 4:1 split, which will become effective March 19 and remove some of Visa’s influence over the price-weighted index.
In other earnings of note, Amazon.com (AMZN 354.53, +42.75) soared 13.7% after beating operating income estimates and issuing cautious guidance for the first quarter. The stock helped the consumer discretionary sector (-1.1%) finish a few steps ahead of the broader market.
Although the market endured a whipsaw session, that was not the case with Shake Shack (SHAK 45.90, +24.90), which made its public debut today. Shares of the hamburger chain rocketed higher by 118.6% after pricing the IPO at $21.
Treasuries spiked, ending near their highs with the 10-yr yield down eight basis points at 1.67%.
Today’s participation was well ahead of average with more than a billion shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data included Q4 GDP, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, and Michigan Sentiment:
According to the advance estimate, GDP increased 2.6% in Q4 2014 (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%), down from a 5.0% increase in the third quarter
Real final sales increased 1.8% in the fourth quarter after increasing 5.0% in the third quarter
Much of the GDP gain was the result of lower prices adding a boost to the “real” economy. Nominal GDP growth was anemic (2.5%), which was down by more than 50% from both second (6.8%) and third quarter (6.4%) growth levels
Consumption spending was a bright spot, increasing 4.3%, which was the largest jump since 2006
The Employment Cost index Increased 0.6% in Q4, down from a 0.7% increase in Q3 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.5%
Wages and salaries decelerated, up 0.5% after increasing 0.8% in Q3 2014
Benefits spending growth increased 0.6% for a second consecutive quarter
The Chicago PMI for January increased to 59.4 from 58.8 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a drop to 58.0
Production levels accelerated as the related index increased to 64.1 in January from 62.7 in December
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was virtually unchanged in January, ticking down to 98.1 from 98.2 (Briefing.com consensus 98.2)
Lower gasoline prices and improvements in the labor market were key for overall sentiment growth in January
On Monday, December Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Core PCE Prices will be reported at 8:30 ET while the ISM Index for January and December Construction Spending will be released at 10:00 ET.
Nasdaq Composite -2.1% YTD
S&P 500 -3.1% YTD
Russell 2000 -3.4% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -3.7% YTD
Week in Review: Stocks Slide to End January
The stock market began the week on a quiet note with the Dow (unch), Nasdaq (+0.3%), and S&P 500 (+0.3%) settling near their flat lines. The small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.0%) outperformed, but the action took place against the backdrop of anemic trading volume as the East Coast braced for Winter Storm Juno. The intraday lack of trading activity masked the fact that the weekend featured an important election in Greece. As expected, the anti-bailout Syriza party came away victorious, and despite failing to secure absolute majority, the party was able to form a coalition with Independent Greeks—a party that also opposes EU bailouts. So far, Syriza officials have been very careful when discussing the future of Greece with Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis saying a euro exit is not in the plans and that talks of a ‘Grexit’ should not be sensationalized.
The major averages stumbled on Tuesday with the S&P 500 (-1.3%) returning below its 50-day moving average (2,047). The benchmark index settled ahead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.7%), but behind the Russell 2000 (-0.5%). Stocks careened lower at the start of the session after several large companies cautioned that dollar strength will present a headwind to their future earnings. Most notably, Caterpillar (CAT), DuPont (DD), Microsoft (MSFT), and Procter & Gamble (PG) lost between 1.3% and 9.3% while Pfizer (PFE), and United Technologies (UTX) held up relatively well despite their warnings. However, cautious guidance from six Dow components was not the only issue as investors had to digest a disappointing Durable Orders report while Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales beat expectations.
Equities finished the midweek session on a lower note despite showing considerable strength in the early going. The S&P 500 (-1.4%) lost its 100-day moving average (2,010) and settled behind the Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) while the Russell 2000 (-1.7%) lagged throughout the day. The key indices appeared to be on solid footing at the start with the Nasdaq up 1.0% after Apple (AAPL) reported better than expected results for the quarter and issued strong guidance. The stock surged 5.7% and helped the technology sector (-0.1%) finish near its flat line while most of the remaining sectors struggled. The benchmark index traded little changed ahead of the afternoon release of the latest policy statement from the Fed, but slumped into the close. Once again, the policy directive reiterated the Fed’s intent to remain patient in determining the appropriate timing for the first rate hike, which helped send Treasuries to new highs. The 10-yr yield fell ten basis points to 1.73% while the 30-yr yield dropped 11 basis points to register its lowest close on record (2.28%). The Fed described U.S. economic growth as ‘solid’ while categorizing job growth as ‘strong.’ The central bank did not spend much time discussing overseas developments, which could help explain some of the selling that developed after the statement was released. Furthermore, the FOMC showed little concern over low inflation, saying that while the price level is expected to decline in the near term, a gradual return to 2.0% should follow once the ‘transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate.’
The market endured a volatile session on Thursday, but a steady rebound off morning lows helped the major averages register their first gain in three days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average paced the advance (+1.3%) while the S&P 500 (+1.0%) reclaimed its 100-day moving average (2,010). Equities faced some selling pressure at the start amid continued weakness in crude oil. The energy component set a fresh January low in the $43.60/bbl area, but was able to charge back to unchanged by the pit close. That rebound improved the overall risk tolerance and helped the S&P 500 find support just a point above its January low (1988.12). Dip buyers entered the picture about 90 minutes after the start of the session, which helped all ten sectors rebound off their lows. The materials space (+1.4%) finished in the lead thanks to better than expected earnings from Dow Chemical (DOW). The stock spiked 4.6% and gave a boost to its peers. Meanwhile, the other commodity-related sector—energy (+0.2%)—was the weakest performer.
Global Markets
ASIA
Asian Markets Close: Nikkei +0.4%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Shanghai -1.6%
Asian markets finished the week on a mostly lower note. The yen strengthened after Japan’s inflation data did not jive with the upbeat outlook provided by the country’s government. The dollar/yen pair trades near 117.75 after sliding from 118.30
In economic data:
Japan’s Housing Starts fell 14.7% year-over-year (expected -14.8%; prior -14.3%) while Industrial Production rose 1.0% month-over-month (expected 1.3%; prior -0.5%). Separately, National CPI rose 2.4% (consensus 2.3%; prior 2.4%) while National Core CPI increased 2.5% (expected 2.6%; previous 2.7%). Also of note, Household Spending rose 0.4% month-over-month (forecast 0.3%; last 0.4%) while the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 3.4% from 3.5% (expected 3.5%)
Australia’s PPI ticked up 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.3%; prior 0.2%) while Private Sector Credit increased 0.5%, as expected
Singapore’s Unemployment Rate ticked down to 1.9% from 2.0% (expected 2.0%)
Japan’s Nikkei (+0.4%) outperformed with help from technology companies. Advantest and Sumco jumped 9.3% and 8.1%, respectively.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (-0.4%) slipped into the close. Casino and gaming names continued their recent woes with Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China both losing near 3.0%.
China’s Shanghai Composite (-1.6%) ended on its session low. Technology names underperformed with China National Software, Linewell Software, and Yonyou Network Technology losing between 8.0% and 9.5%.
India’s Sensex (-1.7%) retreated after a series of record closes. Financials lagged with State Bank of India and ICICI Bank down 5.5% and 5.2%, respectively, after ICICI’s earnings showed a spike in provisions for bad loans.
Australia’s ASX (+0.3%) outperformed with help from miners. BHP Billiton gained 1.1% and Rio Tinto advanced 0.9%.
Regional Advancers: Indonesia +0.5%, Philippines +1.0%
Regional Decliners: Malaysia -0.1%, Singapore -0.8%, South Korea -0.1%, Taiwan -0.7%, Thailand -0.3%, Vietnam -1.2%
FX: USDCNY rose to 6.2510, USDINR is higher near 62.02, USDJPY is down near 117.67, AUDUSD has climbed to 0.7778
EUROPE
Major European indices trade lower with France’s CAC (-0.5%) leading the way. Investors in Europe are anxious to receive an update from the ongoing talks between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Eurogroup Chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem.
Eurozone CPI fell 0.6% year-over-year (expected -0.5%; prior -0.2%) while Core CPI rose 0.5% (consensus 0.6%; last 0.7%). Separately, the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 11.4% from 11.5% (consensus 11.5%)
Germany’s Retail Sales ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (expected 0.3%, prior 0.9%) while the year-over-year reading increased 4.0% (consensus 3.5%; last -1.0%)
UK’s BoE Consumer Credit expanded by GBP578 million (expected GBP1.20 billion; prior GBP1.23 billion) while Mortgage Lending came in at GBP1.60 billion (expected GBP2.00 billion)
French Consumer Spending increased 1.5% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; prior 0.2%)
Italy’s PPI fell 1.8% year-over-year (prior -1.2%)
Spain’s GDP rose 0.7% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.6%; prior 0.5%) while CPI fell 1.4% year-over-year (expected -1.2%; last -1.0%)
CLOSING PRICES
UK’s FTSE: -0.7%
Germany’s DAX: -0.4%
France’s CAC: -0.6%
Spain’s IBEX: -1.2%
Portugal’s PSI: -1.6%
Italy’s MIB Index: -0.4%
Irish Ovrl Index: -0.6%
Greece ASE General Index: -1.6%
Economic Data
from Briefing.com
Economic Data is listed as Actual vs Consensus. Prior Data is given in brackets. If Prior Data has been revised, revised data will be given instead, together with an indication whether it was revised upward or downward.
GDP-Adv. – 08:30 : 2.6% vs 3.2% (Prior 5.0%)
Chain Deflator-Adv – 08:30 : 0.0% vs 1.0% (Prior 1.4)
Employment Cost Index – 08:30 : 0.6% vs 0.5% (Prior 0.7%)
Chicago PMI – 09:45 : 59.4 vs 58.0 (Prior 58.3)
Michigan Sentiment – Final – 09:55 : 98.1 vs 98.2 (Prior 98.2)
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Highlights
According to the advance estimate, GDP increased 2.6% in Q4 2014, down from a 5% increase in the third quarter. The Briefing.com Consensus expected GDP to increase 3.2%.
Stripping out inventories, real final sales increased 1.8% in the fourth quarter after increasing 5.0% in the third quarter.
Key Factors
There was no doubt that the economy softened in the fourth quarter. Just about all of the income data over the last few months were notably weaker. Much of the GDP gain was the result of lower prices adding a boost to the “real” economy. Nominal GDP growth was anemic (2.5%), which was down by more than 50% from both second (6.8%) and third quarter (6.4%) growth levels.
One bright spot was consumption spending, which increased 4.3% in the fourth quarter. That was the largest quarterly increase since Q1 2006. Notably, the gains were widespread within the consumption spectrum: durable goods spending increased 7.4%, nondurable goods spending increased 7.4%, and services spending increased 3.7%.
Fixed investment spending was weak, up only 2.3% in the fourth quarter after increasing 7.7% in the third.
Nonresidential spending increased 1.9%. A 2.6% increase in nonresidential structures and a 7.1% increase in intellectual property products offset a 1.9% decline in equipment spending.Residential spending increased 4.1%.
The net export deficit increased by $40.1 bln, from $431.4 bln to $471.5 bln, and lopped off a full percentage point from GDP growth. Exports increased 2.8% and imports increased 8.9%.
Government spending declined 2.2%. The entire decline can be attributed to a 12.5% decline in national defense spending. State and local government spending increased 1.3%.
Big Picture
Economic growth in the fourth quarter came primarily from consumption.
EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX
Highlights
The Employment Cost index Increased 0.6% in Q4 2014, down from a 0.7% increase in the third quarter. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the index to increase 0.5%.
Key Factors
Wages and salaries decelerated, up 0.5% after increasing 0.8% in Q3 2014. Benefits spending growth increased 0.6% for a second consecutive quarter.
Employment cost growth in the private sector slowed in the fourth quarter. Total compensation increased 0.6%, down from a 0.7% increase in Q3 2014. Both wages and salaries and benefits increased 0.6% in the fourth quarter.
State and local government compensation increased 0.6%, up from a 0.5% increase in Q3 2014. Wages and salaries slowed, up 0.4% after increasing 0.6% in the third quarter. Fourth quarter benefits costs surged, up 1.0% in the fourth quarter after increasing only 0.3% in the third quarter.
Big Picture
Employment costs are the major component of business costs. The trend in these data therefore have important implications for cost-push inflationary pressures and for profit margins.
CHICAGO PMI
Highlights
The Chicago PMI increased to 59.4 in January, up from 58.8 in December. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the index to fall to 58.0.
Key Factors
Overall, the index showed relative strength in the Chicago region.
Production levels accelerated as the related index increased to 64.1 in January from 62.7 in December. New orders returned above 60 as the index increased to 61.6 from 59.8 in December. Backlogs ended a one-month contraction as the index increased to 51.9 from 48.0.
The Employment Index increased to 60.1 in January from 56.4 in December. That was the first reading above 60 since November 2013.
Big Picture
The Chicago PMI has little overall economic value, and is only watched by the financial markets because it is usually released one day in advance of the similar national ISM manufacturing survey. A significant move in this regional survey will therefore sometimes be seen as having predictive value for the ISM index.
UNVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Highlights
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was virtually unchanged in the January final reading. The final reading came in at 98.1, down slightly from 98.2 in the preliminary reading. The index is up from 93.6 in December. The Briefing.com Consensus expected the Consumer Sentiment Index to remain at 98.2.
Key Factors
Lower gasoline prices and improvements in the labor market were key for overall sentiment growth in January.
Continued volatility in the equity market could dampen sentiment next month.
Consumption trends are reliant upon income growth, not sentiment. Even though sentiment improved in January, another downward move in income levels will put negative pressure on consumption growth.
Big Picture
Consumer sentiment has little influence on consumption. As long as payroll levels continue to expand, the resulting income growth should keep consumption gains steady regardless of the monthly ebbs and flows in sentiment.
Technical Analysis
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
17164.95 -251.90 (-1.45%)
Volume: 168,557,036 (above average of 90,871,922)
Range: 17,156.82 – 17,419.90
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
4635.24 -48.17 (-1.03%)
Volume: 638.8M (above average of 448.0M)
Range: 4,631.10 – 4,703.81
S&P500 INDEX
1994.99 -26.26 (-1.30%)
Volume: 893.2M (above average of 518.7M)
Range: 1,993.38 – 2,023.32
The DOW and S&P500 are both breaking lower and lower lows, but the NASDAQ seems to still have some support at the 61.8% Fib.
Ultimately that doesn’t give us much of a bullish signal, though you can hope…
Market Internals
NYSE:
Higher Volumes than the day before – 1216.2M vs 863.0M
Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1002 / 2119
New Highs outpaced New Lows (highs/lows): 203 / 112
NASDAQ:
Lower Volumes than the day before – 2214.7M vs 1993.0M
Decliners outpaced Advancers (adv/dec): 1820 / 929
New Lows outpaced New Highs (highs/lows): 50 / 103
VOLATILITY S&P500 (VIX)
20.97 +2.21 (+11.78%)
Decliners outpaced Advancers by 2.45 on higher volumes than the day before (+574.90M +20.13%).
Despite the bearishness on the indices, internals are markedly mixed, with the NYSE New Highs outpacing the Lows. And with the recent interchangeability of Advancers and Decliners, it suggests no clear direction going forward.
Treasury Bonds, Currencies & Commodities
from Briefing.com
Treasury Bonds
Security Blanket:
The Treasury market found a safe-haven bid again, driven early in the day by some weaker than expected economic data and later in the session by some geopolitical noise and stock market volatility.
The early drivers included the following:
A report showing CPI declined 0.6% year-over-year in January in the eurozone versus a 0.2% decline in December
A report indicating Japanese household spending declined 3.4% year-over-year in December
The advance Q4 GDP report for the U.S. showing weaker than expected annualized growth of 2.6% (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%). Real final sales were up 1.8%, trailing the prior 10-quarter average of 2.40%.
The late drivers included the following:
A rumor that ISIS is on the move in northern Iraq
A late breakdown in the major stock indices that fostered some safe-haven positioning on account of the volatility in the stock market and some underlying anxiety going into the weekend
Buying efforts were steady, but solid, across the curve
2-yr yield -4 bps to 0.48%
5-yr yield -10 bps to 1.18%
7-yr yield -9 bps to 1.49%
10-yr yield -8 bps to 1.67%
30-yr bond -7 bps to 2.25%
2-10-yr spread flattens to 119 basis points from 125 basis points
Hottest area of the day, though, was the oil pit. Prices dropped early, but came roaring back on news of a sharp drop in the U.S. oil rig count (down 90 to 1543), the ISIS rumor, and short-covering activity
WTI traded below $44.50/bbl in morning action, but settled pit trading up 8% at $48.17/bbl
Commodities in general fared reasonably well, getting little interference from the dollar, which was roughly flat
Gold +2.2% to $1283.00/troy oz.
Copper +2.7% to $2.52/lb
Silver +2.8% to $17.24/troy oz.
Russian central bank cut its key rate to 15% from 17%, contending it has seen a stabilization of inflation and depreciation expectations as expected following its bump to 17% from 10.5% a month ago
2Yr 0.47 (-0.04), 5Yr 1.18 (-0.10), 10Yr 1.68 (-0.09), 30Yr 2.25 (-0.08)
2/10 Spread: 121bps (-5); 2/30 Spread: 178bps (-4)
Currencies
Dollar Remains Strong Despite GDP Miss: The Dollar Index has shook off a lower than expected GDP number to move back toward the high end of 94. The DXY continues to hold 94.40 support following the generally hawkish FOMC statement from Wednesday. The Q4 GDP printed at +2.6% which was below the Briefing.com consensus of +3.2%. Wages also remained relatively tame as the Employment Cost Index was in line. But it is still running above the recent trend and was not enough to shake investors out of the dollar.
The euro is testing the 1.13 level for support following a round of poor economic data. The Eurozone CPI came in lower than expected. But this should not come as a major surprise given the ECB plan to potentially pump over a trillion euro into the system in order to spur prices higher. The new Greek government met with EU officials and said it would not accept an extension of the Greek bail out (ends Feb 28) and that it would not work with the Troika. The headlines appear worse than the actual talks though as the two sides continue to talk and move toward an amicable settlement.
The pound is testing the key 1.50 psyche level for support. Net Lending, Money Supply, and Mortgage Apps all were weak today. Coupled with a strong dollar and we are seeing cable bid.
The yen continues to straddle the 118 area but is pushing higher on some risk off trade at the months end. Economic data from the region was weak as Household Spend, Industrial Production and CPI data all missed expectations. 117 has set up as a key resistance level for yen over the past week so investors will be closely watching to see how it reacts to another test.
The Russian ruble has tumbled back to test 70 support after the central bank surprised markets with a rate cut. The central bank cut its rates to 15% from 17% as fears of an economic slow down are trumping the ruble valuation worries. The move comes a little over a month after the bank hiked rates 6.5 points. The ruble is still off from the December spike low of 79 but remains in a firm downward trend and has little support at the current levels
Commodities
Closing Commodities: Oil Surges 8% In Pit Trading Following ISIS/Iraq Rumors
WTI crude oil steals the show on a late-day surge higher
Mar crude oil picked up steam following rumors that ISIS was on the move in Northern Iraq, according to CNBC
Who knows what’s actually going on, yet, but either way March crude oil closed 8% higher at $48.17/barrel
Mar nat gas lost $0.03 to $2.69/MMBtu
Feb gold rallied $24 to $1278.90/oz, while Mar silver rose $0.45 to $16.76/oz
Mar copper closed $0.04 higher at $2.49/lb
Energy Price Action
Mar crude oil futures rose $3.58/barrel (or +8%) to $48.17/barrel
Mar natural gas fell $0.03 cents to $2.69/MMBtu
RBOB Gasoline closed $0.09 higher (or +6.5%) at $1.48/gallon
Heating oil closed $0.10 higher (or +6.3%) at $1.70/gallon
Agricultural Price Action
Mar corn closed $0.02 lower at $3.71/bushel
Mar wheat closed $0.05 lower at $5.03/bushel
Feb soybeans ended $0.07 lower at $9.61/bushel
Ethanol closed $0.10 higher at $1.48/gallon
Sugar #11 closed $0.06 lower at 14.85 cents/gallon
Metals Price Action
Feb gold ended today’s session $24 higher at $1278.90/oz
Mar silver ended $0.45 higher at $16.76 /oz
Mar copper closed $0.04 higher to $2.49/lb
Preview: Week of 2 Feb to 6 Feb 2015
Economic Data
Economic Data is listed as Consensus by default. Prior data will be given in brackets. If Consensus Data is not available, Prior data will be given without brackets. If Prior Data has been revised, the revised data will be given together with an indication whether it was an upward or downward revision.
MONDAY 2 FEB
Personal Income – 08:30 : 0.3% (Prior 0.4%)
Personal Spending – 08:30 : -0.2% (Prior 0.6%)
PCE Prices – Core – 08:30 : 0.0% (Prior 0.0%)
ISM Index – 10:00 : 54.7 (Prior 55.1)
Construction Spending – 10:00 : 0.8% (Prior -0.3%)
TUESDAY 3 FEB
Factory Orders – 10:00 : -2.0% (Prior -0.7%)
Auto Sales – 14:00 : Prior 5.9M
Truck Sales – 14:00 : Prior 7.9M
WEDNESDAY 4 FEB
MBA Mortgage Index – 07:00 : Prior -3.2%
ADP Employment Change – 08:15 : 230K (Prior 241K)
ISM Services – 10:00 : 56.5 (Prior 56.5)
Crude Inventories – 10:30 : Prior 8.874M
THURSDAY 5 FEB
Challenger Job Cuts – 07:30 : Prior 6.6%
Initial Claims – 08:30 : 290K (Prior 265K)
Continuing Claims – 08:30 : 2375K (Prior 2385K)
Trade Balance – 08:30 : -$38.0B (Prior -$39.0B)
Productivity-Prel. – 08:30 : 0.2% (Prior 2.3%)
Unit Labor Costs – 08:30 : 1.2% (Prior -1.0%)
Natural Gas Inventories – 10:30 : Prior -94bcf
FRIDAY 6 FEB
Nonfarm Payrolls – 08:30 : 235K (Prior 252K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls – 08:30 : 225K (Prior 240K)
Unemployment Rate – 08:30 : 5.6% (Prior 5.6%)
Hourly Earnings – 08:30 : 0.3% (Prior -0.2%)
Average Workweek – 08:30 : 34.6 (Prior 34.6)
Consumer Credit – 15:00 : $15.0B (Prior $14.1B)
Corporate Earnings
MONDAY 2 FEB
BMO : FLWS AVY XOM LII NMM NKA ONB PBI SYY TEN
AMC : AEIS ADVS ARE AGNC AFG APC APAM BKH CLF EGP FN HIG IDTI LLNW LMNX MTSI MDU MTSC NANO OI RGA RCII RTEC TNAV TMK UDR XL
TUESDAY 3 FEB
BMO : AET AGCO ARG AXE ACI ARRY AN BHE BP CARB CNC CEVA CHD CBR ETN EMR GLPI GCI HCA HW HCLP HRC IMS JLL LPT LYB MHO MNK NOV NYT PNR ROLL R SC ST SPR TECH THR TWIN UPS WDR
AMC : AFL AJG AEC ATO ATW AXS CHRW CALX CBL CENT CMG CVD EXP EW ENTR EQR FISV GILD HCSG IACI JKHY LSCC MANH MWA MYGN NSR OCLR OMCL PACB PLNR POWL QNST RSYS RNR RNG SLGN SPA TTWO ULTI UNM VASC WRB WNC DIS WYNN
WEDNESDAY 4 FEB
BMO : AGYS ARCB ABH ADP BSX CKSW CLX CTSH EVR GM GWPH HAIN HUM KNL LG LVLT LFUS MPC MRK MOD MSI MPLX NJR OIIM RL SMG SLAB SNE SO SE STE TMHC WHR
AMC : FOXA ACXM ADEP AFFX AFOP AWH ALL UHAL MTGE APU ATML BSAC BMR BOOT BDN BKD CDNS CATM CBG CINF CLW CNW CEB CMRE CSGS ENS ESS RE EPM EXAR EXPO FEIC FGL FMC FORM FBHS BGC G GEOS GIL GLUU GPRE THG HHS HI HUBG ININ IVAC IRBT GMCR LCI LNC MAC MN MTRX MAA MPWR MUSA NE NXPI OSUR ORLY PRE PNNT PAA PAGP POWI PSEC PRU QUIK RXN RRTS SPB SU SYA DATA TTMI TWO TYL UGI UA VRTU WFT WSTL WGL YUM
THURSDAY 5 FEB
BMO : ADS AMSC APO AINV ARW BLL BCE BDX BDC BCO BR CSL CHTR CI CFX COTY CMI DLPH DNKN DFT ETR EQT EQM EL FIS FBP IT GLT GPK GPI GRUB ICE IVC IRMD LAZ LIOX LQDT MMP MMS MDSO KORS MSCI NGD NUS OZM ODFL PTEN PRGO PM PJC PMFG PPL PBH PRLB RFP RSTI SBH SQNS SIRI SNA SPH SNCR TE TDC TEVA TW UTEK USG VLP VSH VMC GRA XYL
AMC : ACET ATVI ASEI ASYS AIV ATR ARCW AHL ATHN ADNC ACLS BMI BEBE BCOV BRS BRKS BWLD CALD CPST ECOM CME CTRL CTS CUTR DCT DV ECHO EGAN RDEN ENH EXPE FWM FFG FLT FLDM GPRO HME IMPV KMPR KIM KRG LF LNKD LGF MRIN MXWL MCK MTD MC MFLX UEPS NTGR EGOV NUAN OLN ONNN OUTR P PCTY PDFS PDM PXLW PPS RENT SQI SWIR SIMG SSD SLH SPSC SPF SRCL SYMC TSYS TPX TBI TWTR UBNT UTI VRSN WAIR YELP YRCW
FRIDAY 6 FEB
BMO : AAN AXL AON BECN BPL CAE CBOE UFS FLIR FELP HRS MSG MMC MCO SIRO STRA VVI WETF
AMC : CCJ GBDC
Other Events of Interest
MONDAY 2 FEB
Fed/Treasury/Political Events
Fed Vice Chair of Atlanta Bank – 17:30
RBA Decision – 21:30
Economic Events
UK PMI – 04:00
Eurozone PMI – 04:00
TUESDAY 3 FEB
Fed/Treasury/Political Events
Fed’s Bullard – 09:50
Fed’s Kocherlakota – 12:45
Economic Events
UK Construction PMI – 04:00
WEDNESDAY 4 FEB
Fed/Treasury/Political Events
Fed’s Mester – 12:45
Economic Events
Eurozone Services PMI – 04:00
THURSDAY 5 FEB
Fed/Treasury/Political Events
Bank of England Decision – 07:00
Economic Events
None
FRIDAY 6 FEB
Fed/Treasury/Political Events
Fed’s Lockhart – 12:45
Economic Events
Germany Industrial Production – 04:00
Commentary
It’s the first trading session of Feb, which is typically bearish. Feb is also a weak month, and looking at how Jan performed, I’m not particularly optimistic about this going forward.
Direction for Monday 30 Jan 2015: UP▲
Direction for Week of 2 Feb to 6 Feb: DOWN▼
Daily Directional Accuracy: 12/15 (80.00%)
Weekly Directional Accuracy: 3/4 (75.00%)