So, after an exciting trade and draft period, we are all aware of which players have gone where. We are all thinking about how players fit into teams and how we can get that must have unique to get ahead of the crowd. But what about the impact these changes have on others around them. Both the new team and the team they have left behind? What about team structure changes? What about the effect fixtures will have on certain players and teams? We will explore the possibilities now.
Adelaide Crows
Unless you have been living under a rock you would have heard about the worst kept secret in AFL history. But what impact does Patrick Dangerfield leaving have on the rest of our Fantasy relevant players? Firstly, it means that the hard tag will go elsewhere. So the obvious option is Rory Sloane (mid, $551,800). He is probably going to be the most impacted by far. Scott Thompson (mid, $563,800) may pick it up from time to time, but as he is an inside player vs Sloane as an outside player, the impact will be minimal.
But one person it does open up for is the highly spoken about Brad Crouch (mid, $321,900). The kid is a ball magnet. Patty D leaving opens up a spot in the midfield. Still young, still somewhat risky but the risk vs reward is well in our favour.
One thing Adelaide has in abundance is running defenders. So it is very worthwhile to keep an eye on Paul Seedsman (def/mid, $371,500) who may push up to a wing. Again, with Patty D leaving the nest, there may be some opportunity for more midfield time for Seedsman.
As far as the team in general goes, draw won’t have a big impact. It will be very similar to last year. We also don’t see a lot changing in their game plans.
Brisbane Lions
Losing Matthew Leuenberger means that we can now lock and load Stefan Martin (ruck, $661,100) as full time ruck. But that is a huge outlay. Jack Redden leaving does open up a spot for an outside wingman, but who? Brisbane have a huge number of capable wingmen so it will be a wait and see situation.
The Lions midfield has always been a good fantasy scoring group. With the likes of Tom Rockliff (mid, $606,900), Dayne Beams (mid, $597,100) and Pearce Hanley (mid, $517,500) this will be the same in 2016. All are worth consideration as premium starters.
The pick of Josh Schache (fwd, $220,300) was what Brisbane needed. He should come straight into the team, but don’t expect much from him. He will be there as a key forward, that’s what he was drafted for. Anything near an average of 50 would be a win.
Brisbane will of course have a very easy draw next year so they won’t be impacted much by current power house teams. Midfield should get plenty of it, it’s who they kick it to that will be the issue for a few more years yet.
Carlton
Carlton needed to do a lot in the trade period, and it looks like they have. As one of the most active clubs in trade period, they picked up exactly what they needed. Sam Kerridge (fwd/mid, $177,100), Andrew Phillips (fwd/ruck, $258,200), Jed Lamb (fwd, $208,700), Lachie Plowman (def, $231,300) and Liam Sumner (fwd/mid, $128,200) should all slot into the team early on. All, excluding Phillips, are ball winners and can get plenty of it. All are priced well below what they are capable of. It will just depend on the opportunities that they will get but they should get plenty.
The inclusion of Jacob Weitering (def, $224,800) strengthens the backline, but as a key defender, comes with a lot of risk. Charlie Curnow (fwd, $175,300) is definitely worth a look if he gets a gig. But with Carlton building such a young, strong midfield through the trade period, he may be too far down the list yet.
Matthew Wright (fwd/mid, $323,900) is a very interesting pickup. He will definitely come straight into the team, probably on a wing or running defender filling the gap that Chris Yarran left. It will be worth watching closely in pre-season to see what role he may take. This is also similar for Daniel Gorringe (fwd/Ruck, $211,000). He will be fighting Phillips for that number 2 ruck spot, but keep an eye on him. Carlton may even opt to only play one ruck using a Levi Casboult (fwd, 336,600) type as a pinch hitter.
As far as the team plan goes for 2016, it will be significantly different. Brendan Bolton will have something brand new in mind so be wary of who you are selecting. However, they will have one of the easiest draws. They have built a strong young team and will continue to build over the next 2-3 years.
Collingwood
Good old Collingwood forever. The controversy surrounding Adam Treloar (mid, $603,400) was a very interesting one. But regardless of whether they went about it the right way or wrong way, they got their man. So who will this impact the most? Dane Swan (mid, $638,200) is already squeezed out of the mid field. Scott Pendlebury (mid, $643,700) will do what he does and be Mr Fantasy Football Reliable regardless. The other players that were on the mid field fringe last year like Jamie Elliott (fwd, $453,000), Jack Crisp (mid, $529,900) and Taylor Adams (mid, $586,800) may see less mid field time so are risky prospects.
The draw should be similar to next year. We cannot see any impact here. As far as the game plan goes, we can’t see that changing too much either under Nathan Buckley. They should be much the same as last year.
Essendon
Don’t go there. That’s about all that needs to be said right now. With the handing down of the ban, what’s left of the entire senior player list is not really worth looking at. Those few that are left will just have way too much fall onto their shoulders. It’s just too risky.
There are under-priced options such as Craig Bird (fwd/mid, $343,500) David Zaharakis (mid, $434,400) and Matthew Leuenberger (ruck/fwd, $315,500) who come at lower risk and worth consideration, but still much higher risk then other options.
But what it does do, is gives us a huge list of cheap ‘top up players’ if they use them and rookies that you know will play. Keep a good close eye on all these cheap players as there will definitely be plenty of value there.
Fremantle
The Dockers had one of the quietest trade periods of the competition. They worked hard on getting one man and one man only, but didn’t get there. However, securing Harley Bennell (fwd/mid, $533,300) will give them the outside run that they need. With a list full of inside mids, he will be worth considering depending on his pre-season. They need that scoring power coming out of the mid-field and Bennell is very capable of doing this.
As far as changing anything in game plan goes, Ross Lyon will not change a lot. He admits that his team needs to be more attacking and score more, but that doesn’t mean that they can. They really needed to secure another Key Forward to sit alongside Matthew Pavlich (fwd, $400,600) to achieve this. Fremantle will be much the same in 2016 as we have seen in the past 3-4 years. So as far as Fantasy Players go, don’t go looking for a unique big fix from Freo. But there are plenty of Mr Reliables in there.
Geelong
The Cats have had a huge trade period and may well be the best improved team of 2016. So let’s start at the top. Patrick Dangerfield (mid, $616,400). The impact he has on Geelong could be huge. Obviously slots straight into the mid field. And more importantly, becomes the number one tag. This opens up Joel Selwood (mid, $566,900). Watch very closely in the pre-season to see how the two together are used. But Selwood is a must consider, if not a lock. It possibly does hurt Mitch Duncan’s (mid, $462,700) scoring potential, he may well be squeezed out of the mid field now, especially when you consider Scott Selwood (mid, $341,000) coming onto the list, Cam Guthrie (mid, $490,500) and Josh Caddy (mid, $519,000) who were exceptional last year.
Zac Smith (ruck, $407,400) is worth a mention. He will come straight in as the team’s number 1 ruck. He will be one worth watching closely during pre-season.
The only real concern for Geelong is how much their game plan now changes with the Dangerfield and Selwood inclusions. Geelong will also get a fairly easy run this year. Definitely a team worth keeping on the top of your Fantasy mind this season.
Gold Coast
Losing Harley Bennell, Zac Smith and Charlie Dixon has definitely opened up opportunities for a few others to step up. But the burning questions are who? Who do they run through the mid field for Harley Bennell with about 15 young guns that could do the job? Who do they play up forward for Charlie Dixon? Who comes into the ruck for Zac Smith?
We aren’t even going to speculate on who fills the Bennell role. That will just be a watch and see. As far as filling the ruck hole goes, there are many here to keep an eye on. Tom Nicholls (ruck, $428,600) now becomes the number 1 ruck outright. So this leaves it way open for the number 2 ruck. Kegan Brooksby (ruck/fwd, $239,400), Daniel Currie (ruck, $128,200) and Cameron Loersch (ruck/fwd, $105,800) are all in the running. And probably in that order too.
Filling the Charlie Dixon hole is another complete unknown. The one thing that it will do though is affect Tom Lynch (fwd, $461,400) as he is now the only key forward down there. He will get a lot more attention.
The good news for Gold Coast is their draw. After having a really strong 2014, their 2015 draw was quite tough. But slipping back down the ladder, it will give them a much easier run in 2016. Keep a good eye on them, especially the new young guys. They will start feeling the pressure to start performing as a club now and make finals. They have been in the competition long enough now. Their list is in a very good position to become a power house in the next few years.
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants are in a similar position to Gold Coast. It is time that they start building their list to a place that they can make and be competitive in finals. All the guys that they lost won’t impact them too much as each of them were struggling to crack into a the team full of quality footballers. Yes, all of them are good footballers but being third or fourth year draft picks, and a few injuries here and there, they were always up against the more mature first and second year picks. Adam Treloar to Collingwood is the biggest loss, by far. Some may argue it will hurt their depth. But they run very deep; it shouldn’t hurt them all that much at all.
Steve Johnson (fwd, $502,000) helps add some maturity to the list and that is one thing they need. Some more leadership on the oval will be great for the young guys. But it is doubtful it will impact the game play very much. With a tougher draw then last year, it will be an interesting season for the Giants. Another season of an expansion club slipping back down the ladder, rather than getting up there and making finals, is exactly what the AFL doesn’t need to see.
Hawthorn
The mighty flying Hawks. Really, what needs to be said? 3 from 3. Played in 5 of the last 8 Grand Finals. Greatest Team of All Time? There is an extremely strong argument you can make for this. But what will change in 2016? Probably very little. They will still be the powerhouse. They have lost a few players through retirement and free agency. David Hale and Brian Lake retiring doesn’t hurt them all that much. They can fill those roles. Matt Suckling was on the fringe anyway so again, they have plenty to cover that.
The draw will be extremely tough again this year, but what’s new for the Hawks? They are the most professional group in the AFL so it will be business as usual. Plenty of Fantasy options on the list as reliable players, but you could expect the exact same output as last year across the list.
Melbourne
Melbourne may well be becoming the most boring club in the AFL. Their list has been building, very, very slowly, over the past 5-6 years. But they still haven’t really shown the jump that a lot expected. It has been an extremely slow process and it is unlikely anything will change in 2016. Similar draw, similar game style. Paul Roos has worked hard on a list that was terrible and as far as other teams that have been building since then (Suns, Giants, Dogs, Saints) they still seem a long, long way behind.
Take Melbourne players at risk. There are a few under-priced value picks on the list like Hertier Lumumba (def, $330,100) and Christian Petrecca (fwd/mid, $128,200). But there may be better options elsewhere.
North Melbourne
Very quiet this year throughout the trade period. This was the opposite of the year before where they chased a few players hard.
The loss of Ryan Bastinac doesn’t really impact them. They have many that can fill that gap including Jed Anderson (mid/fwd, $256,900). The loss of Daniel Currie just means that not a thing is going to change for Todd Goldstein (ruck, $659,600).
Structures won’t change. Draw won’t change. Game style won’t change. There is very little that will impact North Fantasy Players for 2016. It will be very, very similar to 2015 so anybody that you are looking at, you can’t expect similar output.
Port Adelaide
Most punters were expecting a big year from Port in 2016. And fair enough too. Until the Essendon saga has seen Patrick Ryder (ruck/fwd, $443,500) and Angus Monfries (fwd, $373,400) suspended for 12 months. This does leave them with a couple of big holes to fill, and hurts their top 4 chances.
It does bring Matthew Lobbe (ruck, $451,100) back into calculations. With Ryder now a no show for 12 months, it allows Lobbe to be the number 1 ruck in the team and get ample game time. Watch closely. It also opens up a door for the traded Charlie Dixon (fwd, $344,200). He will get the ball kicked to him a lot more without Ryder or Monfries there.
Port’s draw in 2016 will be a lot easier than in 2015. This is good reason to keep an eye on the team. Structures aren’t going to change much. But expect a much better year from Port in 2016 which means more of the ball and more scoring in Fantasy.
Richmond
Richmond didn’t make a lot of changes to the list over the trade period. The inclusion of Chris Yarran (def, $391,700) will affect a few of their running defenders such as Bachour Houli (def, $503,500). Running off the half back line is the only position that Yarran knows and can successfully play. As Richmond chased him and paid a fair bit for him, he will play and play there.
On paper, Richmond has arguably the best team in the AFL. They are probably the best rounded team in the competition right now. So it is all about where they are at mentally. After 35 years of the hopes and dreams for their supporters being shot down year after year, it has to take its toll on the players and administrators of the club. But if they get it together at the pointy end of the season and they get their belief and confidence up they will be a power house of the competition.
The draw, game plan and structures aren’t really going to change again this year. You can expect the same players to score similar to what they did last year. It’s a safe Fantasy bet across most of the Richmond list for 2016.
Saint Kilda
Another team that was quiet throughout the trade period. They got burnt big time paying what they have for Jake Carlisle (def/fwd, $386,700). Essendon must be laughing behind closed doors.
Their run won’t change for 2016. They do have a lot of ball winners in that team which can score massive numbers. The midfield of Jack Steven (mid, $647,400), David Armitage (mid, $620,300), Leigh Motagna (mid, $631,900) and Jack Newnes (mid, $494,200) should all have similar output to 2015.
Sydney
Sydney got exactly what they needed in the ruck throughout the trade period. Callum Sinclair (ruck/fwd, $433,700) is going to fill a big hole for them. It will continue to free up players like Kurt Tippett (ruck/fwd, $466,400) to spend a lot more time forward then in 2015.
Sydney did lose a couple of players in Craig Bird and Lewis Jetta, but have more than enough people on the list that can fill those spaces. Draw will be much the same. The biggest ‘X’ factor for Sydney, probably the AFL, is going to be how Lance Franklin (fwd, $473,300) bounces back. As we saw last year, without him running around they struggled. If Buddy can get up and going even close to what we know what he is capable of, Sydney will have a very productive season, and Fantasy season, again in 2016.
West Coast
The Eagles are very much one of the big unknowns in 2016. Not so much because of the player changes that have occurred, but because of the draw they will have to contend with. Last season was a wonderful year for the club but it may have also been one of the softest draws in 30 years. In 2016 they will have one of the hardest.
Looking back across 2015, all their losses came after a tough game or two the weeks before. Rounds 1 and 3 vs the Dogs and Fremantle came after a tough, injury riddled pre-season. North in Round 10 came after a tough match against Geelong. The Gold Coast draw in Round 18 came after coming up against Sydney. The home loss to the Hawks in Round 19 after Sydney and Gold Coast back to back. Adelaide loss in round 22 after a trip to Melbourne vs Bulldogs. And of course the Grand Final after a Finals Series, which is always tough. All this poses questions and some uncertainty as to whether 2016 will be as fruitful with such a tough fixture.
Now, let’s have a look at the list. Bringing in Lewis Jetta (mid, $458,700) and Jack Redden (mid, $562,300) definitely opens up the outside run. However, the Eagles actually didn’t need more outside run. They needed some inside ball winners. Having Matt Rosa and Scott Selwood leave the club opens up an even bigger hole here. Add with the return of Eric MacKenzie (def, $237,000) and Mitch Brown (def, $138,500) the burning question is, where do they fit in without upsetting the game plan that worked so well in 2015? I don’t think anybody really knows yet.
Losing Callum Sinclair is a huge loss to them. Granted, Scott Lycett (ruck/fwd, $355,600) will now be given a lot of opportunity and Jonathon Giles (ruck, $296,200) is there as last resort, it may leave Nic Naitanui (ruck, $511,900) with too much to do. We know he is injury prone so if there is too much workload, it could spell issues. Lycett is one worth watching. Definitely comes in for Sinclair, so has potential to increase in value.
As far as the list availability with key defenders and key forwards as well as outside mids, the Eagles are in a very fruitful position. However, as already mentioned the burning question is how do they use some of these guys without upsetting the structures that worked so well last year? Lacking the inside power and breaking up the best no 1 / 2 ruck duo in the comp may also cause a few headaches. As there is so much unknown here, selecting Fantasy players will be at a higher risk than others.
Western Bulldogs
One of the burning questions from the trade period was if the Bulldogs recruiting staff were even getting out of bed during this time? They locked away Matt Suckling (def/fwd, $464,900) extremely early on and weren’t seen again.
Losing Stewart Crameri (fwd, $403,700) over the Essendon saga probably doesn’t affect them too much here. They have plenty of similar players that can fill the gap.
The inclusion of Suckling will help them with more run off half back. This was something that the Bulldogs already had. The question is did they need more? Only time will tell. As one of the biggest improvers in 2015, they showed some great potential for the next 3-5 years with a fairly young, solid list. However, 2016 will give them a much tougher draw to contend with. Be wary throughout the season.
By Zane Scheffner
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